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Morning Political Roundup for December 19, 2012

by: Right Reformer

Wed Dec 19, 2012 at 07:30:00 AM EST


Welsome to the middle of the week folks. We've had a couple of big news days so far. 

President:

Clinton, 2016: Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi publicly encouraged Hillary Clinton to make another run for President in 2016. Pelosi stopped short of saying that Clinton would definitely be as good a President as "Washington, Jefferson, or Adams," but then said "maybe" she would be.

Cabinet, Hagel: It looks like Chuck Hagel won't sail through the Senate for the position of Secretary of Defense. Complaints range from his demeanor to his endorsement of Bob Kerrey last cycle. I also received several e-mails from Mark Kirk's office (R-IL) today indicating that Hagel's comments about "the Jewish lobby" are going to haunt him in this process. Looks like McCain, Graham, and Collins are already weighing their options.

Governors:

NJ-Gov: Christie backers are saying they hope to raise 2 milion in the next two weeks, delivering that sum by new years. Very ambitious. 

More NJ-Gov: Former Democratic New Jersey Governor Brendan Byrne did Cory Booker no favors in a recent interview, saying that the Mayor is a bad administrator and that he has no shot against Governor Christie next year. Burn. For his part, Booker has purchased the domain names BookerforGovernor.net, BookerforSenate.com, and even CoryBookerforPresident.com!

MI-Gov: Yes, PPP showed Snyder's popularity plummeting since Right-to-Work passed in Michigan. But there's plenty of time before November 2014, and the key stat is that even now, voters oppose a Snyder recall by a 48-44 margin. Scott Walker's victory earlier this year will certainly make Dems think twice before wasting money and energy on a losing recall effort. 

FL-Gov: Bolstering his liberal credentials, Charlie Crist plans to appear before the Senate Judiciary Committee today on the issue of voter ID. This is just a drop in the bucket though, considering Crist once said Sarah Palin was more qualified to be President than Barack Obama.  

Senate:

HI-Sen: Hanabusa obviously has the insider track to replace the deceased Senator Daniel Inouye, but the state central party plans to submit three names to Governor Abercrombie. Who will the other two names be, and would Abercrombie seriously consider defying Senator Inouye's dying wish that he appoint Hanabusa? 

MT-Sen: Baucus said yesterday that he supports the creation of a blue ribbon commission to explore legislative responses to the Newtown school shooting. The responses may include gun control measures. Expect this to be a major issue in the 2014 race. 

SC-Sen: Some good analysis on how Tim Scott earned his appointment to the Senate, and wasn't just an affirmative action pick for Haley. 

Congress:

HI-1: Will Djou run in the special if Hanabusa is appointed to the Senate? John Fund calls it "likely" though he cites nothing other than the fact that Djou has run in the past and knows he'd probably win again in a special. I'm inclined to hope Djou runs, but I'm not sure he'll want a fourth race in 3 years. 

CA-36: Potential 2014 candidate Brian Nestande touted his education credentials in introducing a bill with very conservative Assemblywoman Kristin Olsen to ensure education funding in the state. Keep an eye on Nestande, who was once regarded as Mary Bono Mack's heir aparent, but now would have to unseat an incumbent Raul Ruiz to win the seat.

Miscellany:

MA-GOP: The Phoenix says it thinks it hears despondency from Massachusetts Republicans. Not the first obituary for Republicans in the state, but it would be notable if there were solid evidence that the GOP can't score recruits because of increasing hopelessness.

Special elections: States and localities hate special elections. They cost money, time, and energy. They're low turnout affairs and often can't be consolidated with other elections. So expect there to be some whining that we're already facing 5 special in the next few months. 

Assault Weapons Ban: Will Dems push for an assault weapons ban even if they know that it would have a minimal impact on the availability of guns that might be used in school shootings? Or is it just posturing that will be much ado about nothing.

France: For you international junkies. Gerard Depardieu has gone Galt, and the French still love him. France's burdensome tax rates caused Depardieu to apply for Belgian citizenship recently, along with several other prominent French millionaires. 

Right Reformer :: Morning Political Roundup for December 19, 2012
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A GOP PPP is popping up
Why?
I thought Rasmussen was already the "GOP PPP" or whatever. Is Rasmussen going to take a two year vacation like after the 2000 election and come back pretending 2012 never happened?

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
You know the answer
My opinion on Rasmussen is well known.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
And
What about the tragically-acronymed P.O.S. Polling? Don't they conduct IVR internal polls for the GOP?

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
POS
Is live caller, I think.
Newhouse isn't a bad pollster. Mitt wanted crap unskewed polls and he provided them and made money. I'm sure the original data was good.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Harper
Harper Polling (@HarperPolling)
Our first poll is a national survey of Republican primary voters. Fielding tonight.
https://twitter.com/HarperPoll...

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
weapons & facebook
I'm seeing a lot of pro-concealed handgun posts on facebook at the moment; also seeing posts ridiculing gun control; I'm not seen any pro gun control posts.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

Same here
I have a pretty conservative Facebook following, but I have a decent number of liberals as well.  I am seeing hardly any pro-gun control posts.

I would say half of my Democratic friends are from western Pennsylvania so their gun politics differ drastically from many of their national counterparts even though they are consistent Democratic voters.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
All about who you are friends with
I've seen a ton of gun control posts and far fewer but still some pro gun posts.  

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
I think that I've seen only one pro gun control post.
It was from one of my very left-wing relatives on my mother's side of the family (that branch has multiple Democratic activists). I've seen a couple of pro-gun and anti gun control posts.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Facebook comment I liked....
"What is the gun community going to do about this tragedy?"

"I dunno. What is the gay community going to do about Penn State?"


[ Parent ]
Wow
Pretty terrible analogy but getting into that argument here won't do either of us any good.  

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Agree
This is out of line, but it shows the absurdity of the politics of this tragedy.  Everyone needs to remain civil.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Bad way to sample
Not only are your friends (anyone's friends, not yours specifically) not going to be representative, but Facebook is more likely to show you posts of people with which you have the most interaction, magnifying this effect.

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

[ Parent ]
PA Corruption Update: Orie Melvin says state cannot try her
http://www.pennlive.com/midsta...

Such arrogance has led to revolutions in the past...

28, Republican, PA-6


Ah, Pennsylvania
State politics would be so much more boring without you.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
bork has passed away
RIP Robert Bork

NRA to give press conference Friday afternoon
Sounds like they are going to give some cover for pro-gun politicians for minimal gun law changes.  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

MI-Gov
I'm pretty sure that Snyder's got nothing to worry about, particularly after he got a lot of positive press (deserved or not) after vetoing the gun bill yesterday. It'll be interesting to see if he will sign the bill when it's passed with an opt-out next session.

On a related note, Michigan's MIRS News service has reported that in exchange for taking Right to Work off the table, unions were willing to concede various issues to Snyder, including:

Elimination of teacher tenure(!)

Giving the Governor authority to appoint State Supreme Court justices

Elimination of the elected State Board of Education

Giving Governor power to pick State Superintendent

and revision of recall laws and petition drive process.

However, unions would not budge on elimination of Michigan's Civil Service Commission, a body enshrined in Michigan's Constitution which controls compensation for state civil service workers (and which is currently stacked with liberals). On the whole, I think he made the right choice, since many of these changes would have worked in Democrats' favor long-term.


Yeah
Sounds like them wanting that the next D governor should have a free hand.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
MA GOP
The Phoenix report is unfortunately nothing new. We've been contesting less than half the races in state for 15 years now. Scott Brown was a welcome distraction from the broader problems the party faces.

MA-GOP
Do you guys have a Howard Dean like figure that could start to set up a challenge every county, every district, every town etc kind of game plan?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Hmm...
I really wouldn't mind trying to land a job with that state party for a few years after college and getting involved with candidate recruitment... but, no, I don't think there's any Dean-like figure in MA who could do such a thing unless Scott Brown wants that to be his future.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07

[ Parent ]
Brown is the only guy who could play that role
And I don't think that's how he plans to spend the next stage of his career. I see Brown running for office, either Senate or Governor, in 2013-14.

[ Parent ]
Well...
What I meant is that Brown could easily spearhead such an initiative but that the GOP would need to invest in staffers who are really dedicated to building a bench in MA to work under Brown. I'm not sure either will happen.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07

[ Parent ]
Brown tried to build some momentum in 2010
He didn't go all-in for Baker (I think he saw the writing on the wall), but he did a lot of legwork for Jeff Perry and a slew of state legislative candidates. Most of it was for naught. We did succeed in winning a handful of conservative state House seats, but that was mostly a product of having qualified candidates on the ballot for the first time in forever.

[ Parent ]
I'll do it!
To somewhat counter that Phoenix article, though, I don't think Weld running in the special election, with a Brown-Baker ticket in 2014 is too underwhelming a GOP slate.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
The top of the ticket hasn't been the problem
We always field a good candidate for Governor, and we've strongly contested Senate races in 1994, 1996, 2010, 2012, and will in 2013/14. But there are State Senate and House districts capable of electing a Republican where we haven't put a candidate on the ballot in over a decade.

[ Parent ]
who would really want to be a Republican in the MA legislature?
I can see why you have that problem.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Rising in leadership
But think about how fast you can rise in leadership! The Massachusetts senate Republican caucus has four leadership positions. Richard Ross was minority whip in his first term. Try having that happen in Tennessee.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
So you can be corrupt
Why else would you run for office in Massachusetts?

[ Parent ]
If you're insane
See Hudak, Bill.

(FTR, I don't think Scott Brown or Richard Tisei are insane, seeing as they're electable in the right circumstances. Hudak couldn't get elected to anything in MA.)

From IL-09, Living in PA-07


[ Parent ]
The politics of vouchers in Tennessee
Some state legislators are pushing vouchers hard:
http://www.myfoxmemphis.com/st...

This issue is near and dear to my heart. It might also serve as a foot in the door for the GOP with the black community, though it's probably a longshot.

Gov. Haslam is trying to avoid the issue:
http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2...

However, if the legislature wants it, I doubt that Haslam can stop it. He pretty much ackknowledges that in the article. This issue isn't big enough to cause a primary challenge or anything. However, depending on how this system fares, it could have a major impact on the GaoP's platform and electoral prospects for years to come.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


yup, weak Governor in TN
If the Republicans had only a thin margin in the legislature (or were in the minority), he could ask his Republican colleagues not to embarrass him by overridding a veto, but with these wide margins, a veto pen is completely useless in TN.
(For those outside the state of TN, only simple majorities are needed there to override vetos).


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
I think vouchers are a winner politically
For all of the [cough] "gifts" Democrats can give to voters in the form of direct subsidies, this is one Republicans have the edge on. Free private school education for everyone.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
overall agree, but
it's probably not going to move many districts in TN one way or the other.
And there's very little left for Republicans in Tennessee to pick up at the legislative level.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Doesn't mean they can't try
Hitting just 20% of the Black vote probably won't swing a single statewide leg. seat.  However, it helps our statewide numbers (should TN Dems ever regain political relevance) and would make TN-5 much easier to crack should we try in 2020.

It also sets a model for other states to follow.  I see no reason why a strategy that works in Tennessee wouldn't work in North Carolina or Georgia, where winning more of the Black vote is a bigger help to the national party.  The idea of Federalism being a "50-state Laboratory" applies to politics too.

And most importantly, it could help thousands of inner-city kids escape the ghettos where they live.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Rick Scott still unpopular
http://www.postonpolitics.com/...

Florida voters disapprove 45-36 percent of the job Scott is doing, and more than half of the voters surveyed - 52 percent - said he does not deserve a second term, compared to 30 percent who say he should be reelected in 2014.

Who do we get in? Pam Bondi? Some generic congressman?

27, R, PA-07.


Adam Putnam
He seems to be ambitious enough to challenge Scott. He was in the House leadership and now he's Florida's Agriculture Commissioner. I think he's wanted to be governor for a while.

[ Parent ]
Rangel praises Jean Schmidt in glowing House Floor speech
LOL, what? Talk about an odd alliance. Maybe it's that special bond that members admonished by the Ethics Committee form./s

"One of the main reasons why I did come to the floor is because of Jean Schmidt," Rangel said. "When I first heard that she was defeated, they told me that her opponent had said that I endorsed her and that's the reason she lost the race. So I wanted to make it abundantly clear that while I did not endorse her politically, I certainly would have said what a nice lady she has been in being kind and gentle and Republican at the same time, and I thought that was quite an achievement."

"Ms. Schmidt has managed to disagree with so many of the differences we have in policy; and yet the first thing that you would ever see on her face is a smile, asking you how you are feeling and having a genuine concern about that," Rangel continued. "I personally will miss you and miss the greetings that we had for each other and sharing each other's family experiences. It's really a classic example in showing what this great body used to be and what it can become when people take a few minutes and realize that we may all come from different political philosophies, but we are still the brothers and sisters and children of God."

http://www.cleveland.com/open/...

From IL-09, Living in PA-07


Remind me
not to read your posts when I'm eating. I can't stop laughing from this story.

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
Hmmm
I'm surprised, as he started talking about a 2014 run almost immediately after 2010. Maybe this means a bigger name, such as Avedesian, Fung, or Doherty, is getting in

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
I grew up in RI and still have a lot family their
and his comments are so sad but right.  As my grandfather says the people of RI are stupid and when it comes to politics they really are.

Avedisian endorsed Chafee last time and it got him into trouble.  Chafee is supposedly gonna run as Dem now he could easily lose in primary.


[ Parent ]
Manchin doing some backtracking
Backtracking
I expect others to follow.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Senate
Sen Patrick Leahy D-VT decides to stay as Judiciary Committee chair instead of taking over Appropriations

25, Male, R, NY-10

Crap
Means Harkin gets it.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Mikulski got it


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Why didn't you want Harkin in particular?


I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Would have made him less likely to retire
nt.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I don't think he retires either way
He already has a good chairmanship. I know Republicans want him to retire, but he has already stated he is running for reelection, so I will take him at his word.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Barbara Mikulski = Appropriations Chair
http://www.politico.com/story/...

Harkin stays as HELP chair

19, Republican, KS-03
Standing strong with Senator Roberts and Governor Brownback.


[ Parent ]
Gun sales skyrocketting
The murderer made good advertisement for the Bushmaster AR-15.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/...

25, Male, R, NY-10

NYC mayor
The personal fiefdoms
http://mycrains.crainsnewyork....

25, Male, R, NY-10

It's all meaningless
Bottom line is Lhota just resigned as head of the MTA. That means he is running for Mayor. Lhota is a registered Republican which means he doesnt need a Wilson Pekula from the party chairs to run. Furthermore no Democrat masquerading a as Republican has a shot in hell of beating Lhota in a NYC GOP primary. If Lhota runs Catsimatidis wont. If Lhota runs he's the GOP candidate. The key for him will be talking someone like Adolfo CarriĆ³n & Malcom Smith to run on a ticket with him. Get Carrion to run for Comptroller and Smith for Public Advocate. Both would run in the Dem primary and then also get the GOP line for the General. This is what Rudy did in 1993 when he ran on a fusion ticket with Democrats Herman Badillio and Susan Alter.  

[ Parent ]
Another interesting aspect to this will be who Cuomo will support
Remember Lhota is a Cuomo appointee and probably is a lot closer to the Governor than any of the current Democrat candidates.  

[ Parent ]
I doubt he give overt support
He'll probably just "stay above the fray" with plenty of winks towards Lhota.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
i doubt it
Its gonna be tough for NYC to elect a Republican and I live here.  The city need Rudy because of crime issue and then they needed Bloomberg because he was continuation of Rudy after 9/11.

The city changed demographically and its more liberal now. Gonna be tough Republicans have to hope for Dem free for all.  


[ Parent ]
I would agree if the Ds had a sterling bench here
But Quinn's proven supremely underwhelming over the past few months, Thompson's still a non-starter in a general and Liu's baggage almost makes Thompson look good. Of all people, it's been De Blasio inexplicably netting positive buzz, but he's really no more exciting than Mark Green.

In the end, unless Thompson makes a killing among minorities, Quinn will be the nominee and she'll either go the way of Ruth Messinger or convince the business community and law-and-order types that she's Ed Koch in high heels.

If I'm not mistaken, a Democrat basically needs a 1/3 of whites, 4/5 of blacks and 2/3 of Hispanics to win citywide today.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Longer-term MA Residents...
Historical question. One thing I've always been curious about is how Finneran held on so long in his district without facing a serious primary? I get it while he was speaker of the house, but even as early as the 80s Mattapan was black-majority - it's amazing that it kept electing a white conservative (by MA Standards) Democrat for 20 years.

R - MD-7

RIP to Ben Lujan Sr
http://www.santafenewmexican.c...

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


RIP
He was a towering figure in NM Politics right?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
MN-7: Who is the Republican most likely to run if
Peterson suddenly retires in 2014?  

I believe OGGoldy has mentioned
State Rep. Mary Franson, who apparently is controversial and just was re-elected to her heavily Republican House seat by the narrowest of margins. Hopefully we could get somebody else.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Franson = Bachmann on steroids
Her quotes are truly frightening.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07

[ Parent ]
Hopefully Marty Seifert
But Sen. Gretchen Hoffman, who lost to Lee Byberg at the convention this year, probably runs. Byberg too  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Seifert lives in Marshall
Which is in MN-1.

Franson clearly feels as though she should be in congress, and I suspect she would clean up at a convention.

Senator Ingerbrigtsen would be a very strong Republican here, as would Senator Carlson, although he lives on the very furthest edge of those geographically large district. Senator Gimse is another possible candidate, but he too lives in the edge. The strongest candidate, by far, would be retiring Representative Morrie Lanning, but he would get crushed at a convention, and is quite old.

And yes, Hoffman will likely run again, but I don't see her as a solid candidate. Much better than Franson, but not a solid recruit at all.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Why doesn't the NRCC get Seifert to run in MN-1?


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
He would be a good recruit
I don't think he would win. And I honestly doubts he thinks he could win. It's hard to convince politicians to take on races they are unlikely to prevail in. That would be a solid recruit though, for sure.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
If Walz left
Would Seifert of Laura Brod be the top Republican candidate?  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
The top would be Sanjem.
None of the others would be able to drive what's left of the old Republican turnout machine in Rochester to have a shot at winning district-wide. Siefert is from the sparsely populated western fringe of the district, far away from the population centers on the eastern half of the district. Brod likes being a regent, as far as I can know. She would be an interesting pick, but she comes from an area that is right on the edge of what could be considered the metro area, which may not sit terribly well with the outstate first. Also, I am not sure why she is really brought up in this discussion, as she lives in the second district.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
MA-SEN: Browns leads by 7+
http://www.politico.com/story/...

Brown is viewed favorably by 58 percent of voters, and only 28 percent view him unfavorably, the poll found.

Brown 47
Patrick 40

Brown 47
Capuano 28

Brown 48
Markey 30

Brown 51
Lynch 24

Brown 49
Meehan 30

19, Republican, KS-03
Standing strong with Senator Roberts and Governor Brownback.


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