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Political Roundup for December 21, 2012

by: BostonPatriot

Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 08:00:00 AM EST


Programming Note: Barring unforeseen circumstances (i.e. a flood of news), this will be the last roundup of 2012. We'll have open threads and updates on any major events that happen next week, and resume daily roundups on January 2nd.

Senate

HI-Sen: In the least shocking news since Booker passing up a race against Christie, Rep. Colleen Hanabusa will seek the late Sen. Inouye's seat. Expect her appointment to be announced after Christmas--and for her to be sworn in after Mazie Hirono, who does not want to give up seniority. Apparently, relations between the pair are icier than Snowe-Collins.

MA-Sen: Rep. Stephen Lynch (D) is the first candidate in the race for Kerry's seat. Lynch is the most moderate Democrat in office in Massachusetts, and would need several liberals to split the field to get the nomination. He would be a difficult foe for Scott Brown because their bases overlap.

More MA-Sen: Sen. Brown, meanwhile, would start this race in the same position he started 2012: well-liked and polling around 50% against lesser-known Democrats with plenty undecided. If Brown enters, he'd be a favorite to win narrowly unless the Democratic nominee can excite the base as Warren did, or if he faces Lynch and loses the conservaDems. (One more tidbit: St. Sen. Ben Downing of the Berkshires is interested. And has no shot.)

Even More MA-Sen: Ben Affleck won't rule out a bid. (No word on Matt Damon.) Also, Barney Frank reiterated his interest in the race, odd since his best chance at a Senate seat just passed him by--twice.

KY-Sen: Um, Mitch? The only time it's OK to release an internal showing you up by only 4 points is in the waning days of a close race--not 22 months beforehand, and definitely not when your prospective opponent is Ashley Judd. Sen. McConnell's lead expands to 20 on the infamous "informed ballot," which includes some crazy Judd statements.

NJ-Sen: Sen. Frank Lautenberg's reaction registered much closer to "whimper" than "bang" on the Retire-o-Meter. Harry Reid, however, immediately endorsed the 88-year-old for another term.

House

IL-02: The CBC is becoming increasingly concerned that ex-Rep. Debbie Halvorson, the lone white Democrat in a large field of qualified black politicians, will win Jesse Jackson Jr.'s seat. She took 24% against Jackson this year; that might be just enough to squeak through in 2013.

NV-01: The Ethics Committee found that Shelley Berkley violated House rules, but didn't move to punish her with only two weeks left in her term.

NY-05: Ethics also wrapped up its investigation of Greg Meeks without a finding. This is more relevant, as Meeks is coming back for another term and could potentially face a strong primary challenge in 2014.

Other

AR-Gov: Departing Rep. Mike Ross (D) has "received a lot of calls" about running for governor in the wake of the McDaniel affair, but doesn't sound interested in pulling the trigger--at least not now. Ross recently came out in favor of a gun control measure. Also, Bill Halter may be interested, but Talk Business reports, "he is on a Disney Cruise with his family." (Don't worry Bill. When you get back, you'll still have a year to decide!)

NRSC: Jerry Moran tapped Rob Collins as executive director. Collins, a former Cantor aide who has helmed the American Action Network, is tasked with picking up 6 seats, and will first have to focus on recruitment and the Massachusetts special.

SCF: Jim DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund will continue under civilian leadership and will not appoint another Senator to replace him.

DCCC: After he and Nancy Pelosi spent most of the 2012 cycle insisting the House was in play, Steve Israel wouldn't even say if the House could flip in 2014. Dems did a good job of picking up the low-hanging fruit this year, but the path to 17 runs through red territory.

NYC-Mayor: Bill Thompson is looking more like the biggest obstacle between Christine Quinn and the Mayor's office. Veteran hack Hank Sheinkopf, who worked on Bloomberg's campaign against Thompson in 2009, will work for the former Comptroller this time.

BostonPatriot :: Political Roundup for December 21, 2012
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Sheikopf
"Hack" is a compliment for him. He's the IDC spokesman now.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


He got a point
http://washingtonexaminer.com/...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Of course
Huelskamp and Boehner will continue to fight all the time. It didn't start with the stripping him of a place on the committee.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
well he does
There is little practical impact as plan B wouldn't have gone anywhere in the Senate anyway.

The problem is nobody wants to offer real concrete spending cuts. So, jump the cliff already and get them.

28, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
We need a speaker
Who can bridge between the hacks and the stubborn fools.
Who can that be? Cantor? Price? Hensarling?

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
there isn't anyone
Prior speakers had the advantage of getting votes by greasing the wheels with federal cash.

That option is gone.

28, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Exactly
It is easy to twist arms when you are offering them hogs in return.  Now you are offering to slaughter their hogs.

Personally, I think we need to go over the cliff.  Protecting our credit rating is very important.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
That option should be gone
For the next 20 years. Our debt to GDP is in Yikes!!! territory.

28, IL-7, Fiscal Conservative

[ Parent ]
Ryan
He's the only one with the intellectual heft and cred from both sides to make it work.

Probably doesn't want the job though.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
No reason to want the job
He'll become quickly as unpopular as all speakers and if he has higher ambitions it won't help. It only helps if he wants to become speaker for life.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Could be speaker for life
After this year's campaign Ryan could mount a presidential run but I think more likely than not he doesn't have the fire in the belly. Being speaker would be a logical endpoint for him, though ultimately I think Treasury Sec. is his career-capper someday.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Best pollster award goes to PPP
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


IL-Gov
Bill (not John!) Daley dips his toe in. http://www.suntimes.com/news/1...

R - MD-7

Maybe I should walk over to John Daley's house and ask him about this.
Then again, he's probably sleeping off last night's drinking.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Lynch vs Brown
Would turnout depress enough among the limo liberals for Brown to win? And how would Lynch's district vote?

28, R, PA-07.

Better question is would the limo liberals vote for Brown?
Would liberal MA pro-choice & pro-gay rights Dems vote for Brown as the more social liberal option? What would really be interesting is a Weld vs Lynch general election.  

[ Parent ]
Limo Liberals
I don't know what they're like in Massachusetts but the latte liberals here in LA probably would've voted for Mitt Romney if Romney were on the Democratic line and Obama on the Republican line. Checking a box for a Republican would mean they'd be helping/endorsing/betraying everything they believe in.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Louise Day Hicks Redux?
Lynch could only be the nominee in another Louise Day Hicks situation, to use a historical reference.

[ Parent ]
McConnell
I have never been one to hop onto the Jesse Benton hate-train, but he is the one who so aggressively attacked the PPP numbers and then released a shoddy internal poll. He was attacked by grassroots Paulites for supposedly mishandling the Paul campaign, although  I thought the criticism was overblown.

Still, maybe this shows he is not ready for the big time. Benton did manage Rand's campaign in 2010 in the general election against Conway.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

It was a very dumb move
I initially thought McConnell was playing from strength trying to intimidate people but it now seems like outright panic. This is a red state in a Dem midterm, you're sitting on a giant warchest, and basically all of your mainstream opponents are shying away. Anything other than radiating supreme confidence should be unacceptable.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Unless they are trying to goad Judd into running
so they can crush her. Could this be a Akin is tied PPP type poll?

[ Parent ]
Then why did they release their message testing?
nt

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
First Harper poll
http://www.harperpolling.com/p...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


hmm
52% Women/48% Men in Republican Primary Electorate.  I'm surprised.

[ Parent ]
Rick Snyder signs changes to MI recall law
http://www.detroitnews.com/art...

It was overshadowed by right to work and other lame-duck legislative changes but MI has now made significant changes that will likely limit recall elections in the future.

Also it would change the way recalls work.  Currently MI has a two stage process - first there is a yes/no referendum on whether to keep the incumbent.  Then if the incumbent is recalled there is a special election to fill the seat and the recalled official is ineligible to run again.  The new law will create a Wisconsin style system where challengers run directly against the incumbent.

Republican in deep blue MI-14


Gov recall unchanged
In constitution.
This would have cost us the seat of the recalled Scott.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Scott
Losing a seat would have been acceptable to rid ourselves of the family values preaching "baby daddy."

This is a great law from a cost perspective.  Michigan seems to have an obscene system where elections can be held something like 6 days out of the year.  Moving recalls to election dates will save a lot of money.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Baby Daddy
I apologize for my ignorance on the issue. Can you tell me what you meant by the family values baby daddy comment? I was unaware of any baby daddy scandal.

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
Ugh.
n/t

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
I'm actually kind of neutral
on the recall changes because of how rare recalls are anyway.  What was wrong with what Paul Scott did though?  If a woman can choose on her own to abort a baby why does a biological father have an obligation to marry her and support the kid?

Republican in deep blue MI-14

[ Parent ]
Ross and Halvorson don't have political careers ahead of them
Mike Ross won't run for governor. Since publicly stating he had no intention to run, he's shown no signs of a reversal. The reason? The man is prescient. He knows the Blue Dogs' reign in AR has come to an end. Dems should just forfeit this race. Halter might have given Lincoln a scare, but he'd fare no better than a generic D in the general.

Halvorson's bid intrigues me. Do u think she can win if all the black candidates split the inner-city vote? I'm skeptical. I think Beale and Hutchison will see the writing on the wall and drop out. If they don't, they'll be pariahs in the black establishment. Additionally, Halvorson's suburban base is fairly Republican. She'll crush her opponents there, but I don't think her vote totals will be all that impressive.

If she wins, imagine the beating she'll take in the next primary. I don't know why she signed herself up for this. The lady has shown time and time again that she ain't all that bright, even compared to her Democratic colleagues in the state.

Ryan/Kasich 2016


Halvorson's path to victory
If K/W give 15% of the vote, South Suburbs give 40%, and Chicago gives 45%:

Chicago: Trotter 40 (still has the machine behind him), Beale 20 Harris 20 Kelly 10 (name rec from Treasurer run) Other 10

S. Suburbs: Halvorson 40 (name rec, white vote in Cal City etc.) Hutchinson 20 Kelly 20 Trotter 15 (Zucarreli gets him something but machines less strong here.) Other 5

Will/Kank: Halvorson 65 Hutchinson 25 Kelly 5 Other 5

Halvorson 24
Trotter 23

The path to victory is there. Basically she just needs the voters that went for her last time - a big win in Will & Kank, and a plurality in the South Suburbs. She doesn't need to set foot in Chicago.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Asa Hutchinson leading some NRA 'School Safety' thing....
Does this mean he's not running for Governor in Arkansas?

Democrats file for DC statehood
http://www.newser.com/story/15...

Is it time at last to create a 51st state? No, not Canada. Four senators introduced legislation yesterday to turn Washington, DC, into the state of "New Columbia," reports Buzzfeed. Federal buildings and the mall would remain under Congressional control, but the rest of the city would get to vote on becoming the first new state since Hawaii joined the Union in 1959.

28, R, PA-07.


New Columbia?
Why would it be "New" Columbia? It wasn't named after some old Columbia. Columbia was just another name for America in the 18th Century. "District of Columbia" basically just meant that it was America's capital district.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
I have no idea, plus NC is already taken as an abbreviation
nt

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Republicans should support this
so long as they take Fairfax, PG, and Montgomery with them into a "state of Potomac". You'd instantly make the rest of MD a swing state and VA a red state.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Nice idea, and I'd support it, but
it won't happen that way.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
disagree
problem is the Senate; why risk adding more Democrat Senators

Instead just return everything proposed to be in "New Columbia" to Maryland; clean up lines to fix any buildings that would be split between the capital district and it if the lines are as badly drawn as that statehood one in early to mid 90s.



42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
We'd get those Senators back
in the form of VA and probably a Senator from "new MD" as well.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Can't this simply be solved...
...by giving (most of) DC back to Maryland? MD would probably garner a 9th Democratic district, but senate seats and the governor's office is out of reach for Republicans anyway, and the Electoral College would shrink by two guaranteed Democratic votes.

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

[ Parent ]
That could happen tomorrow
Republicans have proposed this, but the DC residents have never been that interested.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
We don't want that hellhole either
It's bad enough we're stuck with its suburbs.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
DC Retrocession
I'd love to give MontCo Democrats a humbling dosage of their own medicine. If they want to act like liberals and support all sorts of welfare policies, I'd just love giving them a whole new tax burden. perhaps MontCo could just absorb DC so DC is primarily its tax burden. The only thing stopping me from actually wanting MontCo liberals, especially the uber-unreasonable types in places like Takoma Park, to have to pay for the social programs they adore (like Chicago liberals have to) is that it would absolutely screw Southern Maryland, the Eastern Shore, Carroll County, northern Baltimore County, and the Panhandle.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Sure, but DC wants full statehood.
They don't want to be swallowed by another state. Frankly, I doubt that Maryland wants the problems that absorbing DC would bring.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
approval from Maryland not needed
But I imagine the Senate Democrats would kill a proposal to give it back to Maryland anyway.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
A better idea
Would be to just let them be included in a Maryland Congressional map like it was part of the state, and to include its vote totals in MD Senate elections.

It gets congressional representation without creating a new state that really doesn't deserve to be its own state.  It also gets to keep its legal distinction and not just get re-absorbed into maryland entirely

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
one man one vote violation if kept past a census
Congressional districts must be as close to population as practical; on an interium basis you could add a seat to Maryland for DC, but in the next census they'll have to equalize the population of all seats (it DC would be less than a house seat, it would need part of real Maryland)


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO Pattonville School District, Maryland Heights Fire District (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
How?
For starters, they'd just do a mid-decade redistricting in MD.  Its not like it would be partisan, since Democrats will win all the re-drawn seats anyway.

Of course it'd need part of real Maryland, that is the whole point.  Parts of Montgomery and PGC are essentially part of DC anyway, and this way you wind up with still relatively even congressional populations, still 100 states, and the people in DC still get to vote for congressional candidates.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Only 700 days after the House bill
And they say nothing moves quickly through the senate.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Snowe-Collins relations
I have never read that relations were icy between this pair. Although in retrospect, I don't recall reading anything about the both of them at the same time, period. Can anyone elaborate a little more on this? Thanks.

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


Fascinating!
The best read I've had in a lonnnnng time!

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
Lautnberg-Booker truce over
That was fast. http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

R - MD-7

Wolf Blitzer yesterday...
...basically predicted Lautenberg would remain in and run a feisty campaign. For what it's worth.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Jeb 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Get ready for it...
This means more than one person hops into this primary. I predict Pallone and possibly Rothman. And if it gets really crazy, a South Jersey/Norcross controlled candidate.

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
Cravaack to NH
as everyone expected. http://www.startribune.com/pol...

R - MD-7

To the surprise of no one
But good for him. It enables him to be with his wife and be near his kids.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Leaving DC
It's a surprise when any outgoing Senator or Representative leaves DC, whether it is to return to the former home state or to go somewhere else. The potential income as a lobbyist is just too big.

[ Parent ]
TN-4: State Rep exploring primary challenge
Joe Carr from Rutherford County (Murfreesboro) form exploratory committee.  Hopefully, only one from Rutherford County enters the primary.

http://www.chattanoogan.com/20...

33, R, IN-09


Hopefully, but not likely
I'll almost gaurantee that Rutherford County will throw another hat or two into the ring. I'm not if State Sen. Bill Ketron will get in. It would mean giving up his seat, which is now completely in Rutherford County and will be up in 2014. Lou Ann Zelenik, the former Rutherford County party chair and perennial candidate/primary loser will probably try again. State Sen. Jim Tracy (probably my preference) lives in Shelbyville in Bedford County and might be very likely to run. He lost to Diane Black in the '10 TN-06 primary that also included Zelenik. Even though he lives in Bedford County, both the old and new versions of his senate district contain part of Rutherford County. I don't think there's much overlap between the areas of the county in the new version and the areas in the old version, but it might splinter the Rutherford vote even further if Tracy gets into the ring. Then of course there's always the chance that someone prominent in the private sector who lives in the county will run. Ready the clown car.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
*not sure


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Obama-Romney NY-NJ numbers
NY-20 is Obama 58.2%-39.7% and NY-26 is 63.7%-34.6%. Neither district is important to us. Both are similar to Obama-McCain but are actually more Democratic due to the closer election.

I've updated these districts with some actual vote totals, but there are still counties that don't have breakdowns. The first number

NY 19 Obama 51.6 Romney 46.5
NY 22 Obama 48.4 Romney 49.6
NY 23 Obama 47.9 Romney 50.1
NY 24 Obama 57.3 Romney 40.8
NY 25 Obama 58.6 Romney 39.5
NY 27 Obama 43.5 Romney 54.7

These are almost entirely estimated since only three New Jersey counties have votes broken down by precinct:

NJ 1 Obama 66.0 Romney 32.9
NJ 2 Obama 53.4 Romney 45.7
NJ 3 Obama 52.1 Romney 47.0
NJ 4 Obama 39.3 Romney 59.5
NJ 5 Obama 45.8 Romney 53.2
NJ 6 Obama 63.1 Romney 35.8
NJ 7 Obama 46.8 Romney 52.1
NJ 8 Obama 78.3 Romney 20.2
NJ 9 Obama 73.6 Romney 25.5
NJ 10 Obama 88.3 Romney 10.8
NJ 11 Obama 44.3 Romney 54.7
NJ 12 Obama 68.9 Romney 30.0

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


LoBiondo and Runyan both have D+ districts?


[ Parent ]
These are estimates
So they could be off by a point either way but I believe they do. LoBiondo is roughly D+2 and Runyan D+1. New Jersey went from D+4 to D+7. Their 2008 numbers were E and R+2. So a leftward move should be expected.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
NJ #2
I have exact district numbers for 5 of the 8 counties in NJ #2. Obama won those 5, 55.3%-43.9%. Only two of the other three counties have significant votes and they both likely favor Romney slightly. My method tends to overestimate the rep's party slightly so I guess that the district is more likely to be more Obama than Romney than I estimated.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Was there a 'Sandy effect,' or do you think there's a trend?


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Sandy?
Most of the other states that had a Democratic PVI increase were southern states where minorities were increasing but Republicans couldn't increase the White vote. New Jersey wasn't like that.

The New Jersey vote was 94% of 2008, while the overall vote was 98%. Missouri and Kansas also were at 94%. So it's tough to say it was Sandy. You'd probably want to look at the turn-out drop by town. i think Republicans do better along the shore, so you may have a drop there.


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Missouri and Kansas
both mostly in media markets which were contested in 2008, but not 2012.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
States that were up and down
I'm not sure that explains it, because I doubt Kansas City had a lot of media in 2008, certainly not enough to spike. Other states similarly down:

Alaska
Connecticut
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan
New Mexico
New York
Oklahoma
Rhode Island
South Dakota
Tennessee
West Virginia

States that were up:
DC
Utah
Colorado
Nevada
North Carolina
Wisconsin
Washington
Virginia
Massachusetts
Maryland
Louisiana
North Dakota

I'm sure being battlegrounds contributed to some of the states that were up, it was only probably one factor. Mitt got a home state bounce from Michigan, but not Massachusetts. Yet Massachusetts was up and Michigan down.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Hmm
Down:

Rhode Island (and Michigan?) -- Losing Population
Connecticut, New Jersey, New York -- Sandy
Alaska -- Palin
Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kansas -- Media Markets
West Virginia -- Both Candidates Terrible Fits?
New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee -- No explanation

I agree that it seems tough to say Sandy really affected turnout a lot, but I bet it was on voters' minds nonetheless.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
also Sandy
isn't only based on turnout.  Many swing voters may have reacted favorably to Obama's handling of the storm/Christie's praise, and swung from Lean Romney to Lean Obama.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Sandy
Most polling crosstabs by region showed a huge bounce for Obama in the Northeast following the hurricane, which was not measured in the other regions. And NJ was the hardest hit state. So I don't think you can conclude that NJ is moving leftward based on 2012 alone.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
Can't believe the Smith numbers


26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


[ Parent ]
Smith
Smith would show the biggest rightward move. It's possible that I'm giving him too many Monmouth county votes and that the district is about 57%-41% Romney. My method tends to be off in counties when they are split between a Republican and Democrat winning the two congressional districts. In the absence of precinct numbers I've found that this way provides a good estimate, however. When that data is available, we'll get a better idea.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Of course Reid endorsed Lautenberg
Reid, and the DSCC/RNSC always endorse incumbents (except in case of a scandal.)

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