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Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

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RRH's 2014 General Election Preview Series:

Part 3 - Midwest/West House

Part 2 - Row Officers

Part 1 - Legislatures and Local

The Current RRH Race Ratings:

Senate

Governor

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Row Officers

Q2 Fundraising


Holiday Open Thread Part III

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Thu Dec 27, 2012 at 08:13:09 AM EST


1) What are the implications of the actions of Governor Abercrombie yesterday?  (This question is fairly open-ended).

2) What New Years resolution should candidates for office make?  (I start this by saying rape and abortion should never be mentioned in the same paragraph unless you are calling for the death penalty for rapists.)

Ryan_in_SEPA :: Holiday Open Thread Part III
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I will give it a shot
1. I think Abercrombie just blew whatever chance he had at reelection. This suggests to me that he had no intentions of running for a second term anyways. As for Senator Schatz, he has 2 years to show the people of Hawaii that he deserves his office. Actually, he has about 1 year, because if he can stave off a serious primary challenge, he could be a senator for a very long time.

2. I think that politicians, of both parties, should not be shunned for hinting that they might be willing to actually work members of the opposite party. I wish that more politicians would be like Lisa Murkowski, Richard Lugar, Andrew Cuomo or Joe Lieberman. But perpetual fear of being tossed to the wolves by your own party prevents this from happening in today's political world. I think candidates should pledge to work for the greater good instead of appeasing the most ideological members of their respective bases, and actually mean it.

And Ryan, as to your wish, so I am fairly certain that what you're alluding to is not a packaging problem, but in fact an issue that a lot of people have with that specific part of that particular policy. sweeping it under the rug won't make the issue go away.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


MN-Gov
Governor Mark Dayton, 65, is headed to the Mayo Clinic for spinal surgery today. He is expecting to be back to work before the legislature meets January 7th. Lt. Governor Yvonne Prettner-Solon will act as interim governor while Dayton is incapacitated

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Almost definitely means
she will run for Governor, I think.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Let her
Jersey is probably the most oil-friendly state in the northeast.

[ Parent ]
Hard to see where she fits in
her and Buono are targeting the same base.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Tom Kean won all 21 counties.
I wonder if Christie can win 19.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Answers
1) I think the blogosphere is overreacting. In my view, the implications are that Hawaii has a new senator for life, Senator Schatz. That's about it. I should note, however, that I seem to be one of the few people who thought Senator Inouye's "last wish" letter was in exceedingly poor taste.

2) To put the national interest ahead of their own. Who am I kidding?

Democrat, NC-11


Overreacting
If anything I think they may be under-reacting; In the last 10 years (largely due to Lingle finding common ground with the machine) the modern White/reform faction of the HIDP has leapfrogged to the left of the Asian/machine faction. (That's excepting Ed Case, but he's something of an anachronism now). That probably makes the netroots predisposed to like Schatz, because he's a clean progressive like them and not tangled up in the gritty machine politics of HI.

The people that are most likely to be incensed about this are in Waipahu and Waianae, not Waikiki, if you get my drift. And they're not talking politics online (or even at all), but they do vote. It's beyond race, too - there's a strong class element. You really think somebody on Shoyu Row is happy about a rich white guy from Makiki leapfrogging someone who came up from Waianae?

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Yes
Overreacting in the sense of how vulnerable Schatz or Abercrombie will be in a primary due to this appointment, which I'd say is roughly zero.

Case got 46% in a primary against incumbent Senator Akaka. Incumbent Senator Schatz will have no problem in my view. Whatever problems Abercrombie has are neither due to this appointment nor increased because of this appointment, in my view.

Most 'normal' people - i.e., the 78% of people who have never read a political blog - just don't care about something like this. And, a much smaller percentage will care in 2014.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Incumbency vs. Machine
hard to separate the two, seeing as a machine candidate not named Hannemann has never lost a top level primary race. This will be decided in the western suburbs, and right now we really don't know whether incumbency will trump the machine there because we've never had any white top-level incumbents to test with.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Well
I'm going to predict right now that Senator Schatz will get a higher percentage of the primary vote than the 79% that "doomed" Rep. Steve Cohen (TN-09) got in 2008.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
If he makes peace with the machine as Cohen did
then sure.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Answers~
1). It implies Abercrombie will not run for reelection.

2). To do everyone a favor, and stop using the phrase middle class, unless they're talking about the actual middle class.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


Number 2
I agree the term middle class is so misused it has lost all meaning.  In terms of income, it depends if you compare me to people my age or the population as a whole.  The former I am upper class the latter I am middle class.  

How would you define middle class?

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Median wealth
I think wealth would be a more meaningful measurement than income, given that it gives more room for variation in living expenses and other variables. I think that a variety of definitions are fine honestly, but that the important part is that the phrase acquires a definition. Historically, middle class hasn't been used as a phrase for the middle income or middle wealth workers, it's been used a phrase for what might now be called the upper middle class, with the working class below the middle class. The real problem is that, for political reasons, a variety of words and phrases are taboo, and modern American discourse now seems to have been reduced to shoehorning everyone into either the 1% or the middle class.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
I would say its pretty easy
Middle class to me is the 25th percentile to the 75th percentile. For a single person with no children that is about 25k to 80k. Yes, that's a wide range, and I don't think anyone outside of that range, either above or below, is middle class at all.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
100% agreed
That's my definition as well.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
I don't see it that way
20k is poor. Hard really for me to fully understand that part because I'm married, but that barely covers a single's rent here.
80k is still middle class for me. Ok, people here have big families. Maybe with one kid it isn't but I don't think so.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
The middle 50%
For two-parent, two-child families goes from roughly $50,000 to roughly $125,000.  

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
And yes
It's also a very wide range. One edge is almost upper class to me, the other isn't much.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
For a family of four, that sounds about right
I don't have children, and will never have children so I generally don't think in the family of four terms. I am completely okay with the 50-125 household range being "middle class" for a family of four

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Depends where you live
In places like NYC, even 100K might be middle class. Where I live, that's upper class.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Oh yeah
Where I live $100,000 a year is the low end of a yearly income.  $30,000 is usually not even enough to pay your mortgage  

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Maybe among your social group. But there are very very few
places in the country where $100,000 a year is actually on the low end of income, and I don't think they should dominate the national conversation.

FWIW, in CA-14 median income according to Wikipedia is $77,000. Those might be 2000 figures, so I wouldn't be surprised if it was closer to $90k or so now.  


[ Parent ]
100,000
a year in NYC. Yikes the average 2 bedroom apartment is 5000 a month in Manhattan

[ Parent ]
And that $5,000 a month apartment
is barely 1,000 sq ft!

[ Parent ]
PA-Gov: Bruce Castor writes RTW op-ed
http://www.pennlive.com/letter...

28, Republican, PA-6

the Boehner 34/12
Allegedly these are the guys who sandbagged Plan B:

No / Lean No: Garrett, Amash, Jordan, Scalise, Gohmert, Stutzman, Gardner, Pearce, Burgess, Mulvaney, Huelskamp, Barton, Broun, Fleming, Labrador, Lamborn, Walsh, Westmoreland, Southerland, Massie, Duncan, Graves, Schweikert, Blackburn, Landry, Buerkle, Tim Scott, Gowdy, Joe Wilson, Guinta, Harris, Myrick, Burton, DesJarlais.

On the Fence: Akin, Bachmann, Gingrey, Adams, Chabot, King, Lummis, Herger, Pence, Pitts, Walter Jones, Price.

Pretty much the usual suspects I suppose. The Midwest is pretty establishment compared to the South; I guess partially due to having weaker seats.

27, R, PA-07.


Plan B
That list can't be the full list. Thirteen House Republicans voted against the procedural rule to even bring Plan B to the floor:

Amash, Broun, Franks, Gohmert, Harris, Huelskamp, Walter Jones, Jordan, Landry, Massie, Ron Paul, Schmidt, Walsh

Franks, Paul, and Schmidt aren't on that list.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
well, it might not be the full list
This is what the guys over at redstate came up with. A fair number of them are of course outgoing.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Response
1. Probably less than meets the eye, only if Abercrombie escaped a serious primary challenge would the seat be vulnerable IMO. I think the Senate and potentially open house seat (if a challenge is even made) would still be out of touch, baring a special election - and we saw what good that did.

2. Candidates should never, NEVER, N.E.V.E.R. discuss rape except in context of bringing down furious anger upon those who would committ such a crime. If asked in relation to abortion, repeat above "furious anger" and leave question unanswered. If absolutly forced into any response a generic "life begin at comception and no child should be forced to pay the penalty for the manner of his conception", but make absolutly certain to bookend any such comment with the FURIOS ANGER point. Yelling and table pounding would be a nice touch.

Marco Rubio 2016, please


NY State Legislature update
The NY State Legislature is to convene on Jan 9 and here is how things stand: Repub Conference 31, Dem Conference 26, IDC Faction 5, Undecided 1. The 46th SD loser, Dem Tkaczyk, has appealed the lower court decision giving Repub Amedore a 37 vote lead to the NY State Appellate Court; the case will start to be heard on Jan. 7.  This means that even if the IDC were to change its mind and vote with the Dems rather than the Repubs (IDC Leader Klein is on better terms with new Dem Senate Leader Stewart-Cousins than the old Dem Leader Sampson), they still couldn't elect a majority leader because there would be a tie, since the undecided seat is unlikely to be finally decided on Jan. 9. It appears that whoever loses at the Appellate level in the 46SD race is likely to appeal to the NY State Court of Appeals, the highest court; so the case will drag on for a while.  This makes it unlikely that Klein will back out of his deal with the Repubs, since only by voting with the Repubs Jan. 9, can a majority leader be elected.  Things could change a few months down the road, but for now that's how things stand.

Answers
1. At first, I would have said "possible career-death," but looking at it now, I have to reconsider. While Abercrombie could face a fairly substantial primary challenge (from his left flank, I would assume), he could also avoid one if no one has the stones to step up to the plate for fear of losing their own position. In a state as partisanly one-sided as Hawaii, political musical chairs can be a passtime. Even if a substantial challenger steps up, they would need to build a bigger platform than 'Inouye's last wishes weren't respected.' That platform would likely be very left-wing, which could be a problem if the Caseite portion of Hawaii's Democratic primary electorate decides that the challenger is too extreme. Any challenge would also likely run along racial lines, at least partially. Non-whites have lower turnout rates than whites in primaries, something that is true on both the islands and the mainland if memory serves. We, as a punditocracy, follow these events closely. It's a big enough story that I suspect many Democratic primary voters in Hawaii are paying attention to it, but I wonder if the percentage is large enough for challenger to get real traction. Sorry for the long-winded answer.

2. Ryan, I'll second your answer.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)


Ed Markey running for senate
Very recommended read
http://www.guardian.co.uk/comm...

CW here.

26, Male, R, NY-10


Corbett flipflops on PennState fine
In a statement, Gov. Tom Corbett endorsed Corman's bill.

"The NCAA, as an athletic trade association, overstepped its authority by forcing Penn State to endure harsh, unjustified and unprecedented punishment," Corbett said.

"To the extent that Sen. Corman's legislation deals with financial sanctions, it is easy for me to give my support for that money to go to Pennsylvania organizations."

http://www.pennlive.com/midsta...

28, Republican, PA-6


Minneapolis Mayor RT Rybak retiring
Beat me to it
He could have been mayor for life if he wanted it.

This leaves a big power vacuum in Minneapolis, believe it or not. No real heir apparent exists.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
And this is not something that he would do lightly
He has something lined up.

My guess is it's a job in the Obama administration, or a bigger role in the DNC (he serves as Vice Chair currently)

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Care to handicap some possible successors?
nt

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
This is not comprehensive by any stretch of the imagination
But here are some potential candidates. All candidates are DFL unless otherwise noted.

Rybak's CoS Tina Smith

Councilwoman Betsy Hodges

Councilman Cam Gordon (Green) (no ally of Rybak's and is a frequent thorn in the sides of the otherwise all-DFL council)

Councilman Gary Schiff (no ally of Rybak's and was running before this announcement)

Former University of Minnesota President  "Fun Bobby" Bruininks

Former State Senator Linda Berglin (I really doubt she runs, but I have heard her name floated)

Exiting State Senator Linda Higgins

Exiting State Senator Ken Kelash

Exiting State Representative Marion Greene

This is also going to be an IRV election, so there will be no sneaking through with 10% of the vote in a fractured primary/GE

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
HI-LG
State Sen. Shan Tsutsui (D-Wailuku, Maui) is the new LG.

R - MD-7

Thought experiment
What's the most politically appealing way to say you not only want to help the middle class, but also the poor.

Do the poor mind being referred to as the poor? "Lower class" or "low class" sound awful coming from a politician's mouth. Maybe the "working poor" or "those below the poverty line."

Trying to brainstorm/crowdsource the best way to do this for campaign-speak.  

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


the "99%"
Its the reason that term got invented you know.

Also, "Average American" works pretty well for that too, as most people's perceptions of an average American is poorer than reality.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
That might be the closest
The problem is that whatever term you use has to subtly exclude the middle class.

"I want to help the middle class. But not just the middle class, also ___." Americans in need kind of applies to the middle class as well, I think. Especially if the poor consider themselves middle class, but are also themselves in need.

I think it might be "the working poor" or "those struggling with poverty."

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
Those aspiring for a better life
I think the key is to make it sound like they want something more and shy away from negative connotations.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
But that sounds like you mean everyone.
I mean, I'm sure Donald Trump is aspiring for a better life.

[ Parent ]
"Those of Modest Means"
works and isn't loaded with connotations. But it sounds a little stale and old-fashioned.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
"Working People"
Democrats have beaten the term "working families" to death the last few cycles.

[ Parent ]
The poor
There are reasons politicians don't talk about the poor. Few people see themselves as poor. The connotation is that poor people don't work and just take. Some middle class and some poor people resent the poor. Since most consider themselves middle class that's who you talk to.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
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