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IL-2: Trotter Drops Out

by: shamlet

Fri Dec 28, 2012 at 10:55:06 AM EST


Well, I expected the field to thin, but even with his issues, this was one drop-out in IL-2 I wasn't quite expecting. State Sen. Donne Trotter (D-Chicago), the machine favorite and once-presumed front-runner for Jesse Jackson Jr.'s seat, is leaving the race after being arrested for trying to bring a gun on board an airplane.

Trotter, once considered the front-runner in the race to replace Jesse Jackson Jr., has decided not to run for the seat, sources tell [WMAQ-TV]. Trotter has released his pollster and begun notifying supporters of his decision, sources say.

It's unclear what this means for the race; if the Chicago machine is now free to coalesce around someone else, then said person would have a strong advantage. If not, this probably only strengthens Halvorson's hand by making the black vote more fractious. Despite his issues, Trotter still was probably the front-runner due to his residual machine support.

Other Chicago candidates might now see this as a green light to enter the race, but right now the IL-2 D primary is now down to 5 serious candidates - ex-Rep. Debbie Halvorson of Crete (Will), State Sen. Toi Hutchinson of Olympia Fields (South Cook), ex-State Rep. and 2010 Treasurer nominee Robin Kelly of Matteson (South Cook), and Chicagoans State Sen.-elect Napoleon Harris and Alderman Anthony Beale. 

shamlet :: IL-2: Trotter Drops Out
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I doubt he dropped out because of the gun
The least of crimes.

25, Male, R, NY-10

Harris
Hope its ok to say I'm really pulling for Harris here, I think he would be a great addition to congress.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Also pulling for him
I had legitimate respect for Hansen Clarke and I think he could be that kind of urban reformer. He hasn't been dealing with the Chicago Machine long enough fo be beholden to its interests and he seems to be intelligent and reform-friendly.

[ Parent ]
I'm rooting for Debbie
For the very same reasons MikeMak described below, but Harris seems like the only candidate in the field who isn't a machine hack or a washout,

[ Parent ]
Hutchinson also seems OK
A bit hackish, but less so than Kelly, and relatively moderate by the standards of the seat. Beale seems like the worst of the bunch, which (not entirely coincidentally) also probably makes him the most likely consensus choice.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I'm also rooting for Harris
Mostly because I am a huge Northwestern football fan and I remember his playing days with the 'Cats.

19, Dem, IL 7, MN 4 (College)

[ Parent ]
Come on Debbie!!!
It is for the benefit of Republican that she wins. This way, we can say and black democrats will realize that making a district 50.01% black VAP is not enough to guarantee a candidate of their choice, especially considering that the city portions (black) of this district are losing people fast due to the out of control violence on the southside of the city. This clown car primary may allow her to win simply by cleaning up with the white democrat and rural vote.  

27, IL-7, Fiscal Conservative

Rural vote
What, all 150 rural Democrats in Kankakee County?

[ Parent ]
In a weirdly timed election
with lower Chicago turnout, Kank + Will could be as much as 15-20%. They were 10% of the primary turnout last year with Obama on the ballot.

If Halvorson runs up huge margins outside Cook again and keeps the Cook voters that supported her against JJJ she has the 25-30% she needs.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Rural Democrats in Kankakee County
An excuse to share another one of those interesting geopolitical oddities: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Wow
I hope it's not as bad as described.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Me too
If Chicago needs 55%+ or, even better, 60%+ black VAP districts then one of the black-majority districts clearly has to be dismantled so that the other two can be over 55% black VAP. That'll release quite a lot of minority voters to help pad Democratic performance elsewhere.  

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
it would also release the white Republicans that they stuffed
In IL-01 and IL-02. If both districts are taking blacks from the dismantled IL-07, they will have to drop some population from the other end.

If the GOP is lucky in 2022 IL-07 can simply vaporize into the other 6 Chicago districts.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Never gonna happen
I think our best case scenario is that 3 and 11 get merged into the second Hispanic district.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Try it
Map out Illinois, as a Democrat would, with 17 seats and a 55% black VAP requirement for VRA seats. See what you get.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Question
If black Democrats decide that they can no longer win 50.01% AA districts, wouldn't you have to eliminate either 1 or 2 from being a VRA district?

[ Parent ]
Joliet can be added
but 7 will probably be hopelessly below 50.01% VAP by then anyway so they might poach a bit of it's South Side tail.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Yep
The math is quite simple, but let's simplify it further.

You have three districts of 100 people each. These three districts are:

51 black, 49 non-black
51 black, 49 non-black
51 black, 49 non-black

So, you have a total: 153 black, 147 non-black.

Now, let's say you decide that you need 55 blacks in each district for it to be a VRA seat. You now have:

55 black, 45 non-black
55 black, 45 non-black

43 black, 57 non-black < oops! this is no longer a VRA seat

And, in the real world, it's even more to the benefit of Democrats, because what it means is that you have to center your VRA districts more on the black communities, and the peripheral areas that are less heavily black get scattered to surrounding districts.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
VRA
I'm surprised we havent seen the VRA be challenged that more white only districts need to be drawn especially in states likes California.  

[ Parent ]
These 3 districts can easily be made to have their black VAP
Increased. I did this a while back and all you have to do is go to Joliet with one of the southside districts. I'm not sure this will be possible come 2020 with the share of blacks dropping from 15.1% to 14.5% of the population from 2000 to 2010 and the total number of blacks living in the state decreasing by 15,000 from 2000 to 2010. The violence epidemic in Chicago that creeped up again this year is probably further speeding up the shift of blacks from the city down to the southern states. However, if current demographic trends continue, there should be no problem creating a second Hispanic VRA seat getting rid of the horribly gerrymandered earmuff seat represented by Gutierrez. This would allow for one Hispanic seat based on the Northwest side of the city and one based on the Southwest side of the city. The total number of VRA Illinois districts would stay the same at 4 and Illinois should lose another representative in 2020 House reapportionment.  

27, IL-7, Fiscal Conservative

[ Parent ]
Cool
Did you post the map where you did it a while back? If so, I'd like to see the link. And, if you successfully created three 55% black VAP districts, did you do it as a Democrat would do it, or as a Republican would do it? That's an important distinction because Republicans won't be drawing the lines in Illinois anytime soon.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
BTW
The general point that I'm getting at here and in the other recent discussions about this is that I've seen a lot of vague hypotheticals about what would happen if, say, 55% black VAP was the new minimum for a VRA seat. What I haven't seen is an actual map that shows how this would benefit the GOP in any given state.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
55% vs 50% VAP in Michigan
Here's an example with the caveat that these are hardly min-maxed. I didn't play around with the map precinct by precinct, but I did adhere to the actual map (namely, 1 district goes to Oakland County and 1 stays in Wayne County)

Here's 50%.

michigan50

I gave Levin a safe seat 58%, as he has. Peters a 53% Obama seat, and 2 black 50.x% 73/77% Obama seats.

Here's 55%.

michigan55

The black seats are bumped up to 77%/80%. That has to come out of the surrounding, hence, Peters is bumped down to 51% and Levin to 57%.

The 55% threshold forces more blacks into the black districts, presuming that it can be met.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Who, what, when?
Great, we finally have an actual map to play with. I haven't drawn a DRA map in a long time!

A few questions before I play with this:

1. Who is drawing these lines?

In particular, if it's a Republican trifecta again, why couldn't they draw these lines anyhow?

2. What are the rules?

Is there any 'rule' being applied besides drawing the majority-minority seats to be 55% black VAP?

3. When are these lines being drawn?

Is this a hypothetical 2020 map, with 13 seats, or a what-might've-been 2010 map, with 14 seats?

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
this is a Democrat map in 2010
I operated under the following rules:

1. Michigan 'criteria' must be minimally adhered to. Thus, no outlandish splitting of townships or counties.

2. In both scenarios 2 black districts must be drawn according to the threshold.

3. In both scenarios Dingell will get a safe district consisting of the rest of Wayne County and some of Monroe. And, a new Washtenaw Democratic district will appear. Both are independent of what happens in Wayne/Oakland County.

4. In both scenarios a district must vaporize from Southeast Michigan. I chose MI-11 (McCotter). The Republican mappers obviously chose MI-09 (Peters)

5. In both scenarios Ways and Means chairman Sander Levin must get a 'reasonably' safe district.

I attacked this problem the same way IL mappers do: Place the closest batch of white conservative areas in the black district. And numerically speaking more blacks means less white conservatives.


27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Cool, here's the solution
I'm curious, did you start off with the premise that the only way to do this was to put Pontiac in with one of the Detroit VRA districts?

In any case, I decided to use Ypsilanti instead and to improve the Peters district by 1% in 2008 Obama performance.

MI-13: 55.2% black VAP
MI-14: 55.7% black VAP

MI-12: 58.0% Obama
MI-09: 53.6% Obama



Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
interesting
I did not consider sending both districts out of Wayne County, so I guess I sort of did start with that premise.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
You've got to think like a Democrat!
;)

Anyway, I would also make a point of balancing out MI-09 and MI-12 at around 56% Obama each, but I didn't figure that was necessary for the question at hand.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
well, seniority matters
It's not necessary either way.

I played around with Illinois. As it stands, the 53%/52%/51% districts (rounded) effectively max out the black population anyway (within a point or so), so the entire exercise is moot.

Louisiana might be the best place where cutting the 61.6% black district down to 50.x% might matter...although perhaps not post Obama.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
It's really easy to do though
And has the side benefit of eliminating an unnecessary county line crossing:

Yes, in my view Louisiana should have two 50.x% maj-min districts, but as usual, Democrats have been unable to come up with a coherent, consistent legal strategy for how to pursue VRA challenges.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Though, if I'm not mistaken
That would draw Levin and Peters into the same district, which would obviously be a non-starter if Democrats were drawing the map.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
agree strongly for Hispanic one
For that matter it would have been possible to have two Hispanic majority districts by VAP in Chicago even in 2010 (both much cleaner looking than ear-muffs); possible that only one of them would have had CVAP majority though.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
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