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Political Roundup for January 2, 2013

by: shamlet

Wed Jan 02, 2013 at 07:00:00 AM EST


Welcome to the first business day of 2013 and the last day of the 112th Congress.

Congress:

Fiscal Cliff - House: Here is the full House roll call from last night. As a side note, 8 Senators voted no: Republicans Paul, Lee, Grassley, Shelby, and Rubio, and Democrats Harkin (left), and Bennet and Carper (right). Kirk, Lautenberg, and DeMint did not vote.

MA-Sen: Democrats appeared to be closing ranks behind Rep. Ed Markey as their preferred nominee for the special election on Friday. Markey got endorsements from outgoing Sen. John Kerry, Vicki Kennedy, and DSCC chair Michael Bennet. But one person that isn't joining the party is Markey's congressional colleage and potential primary rival Mike Capuano.

 “When I became mayor of Somerville the establishment wasn’t with me. When I became a member of Congress the establishment wasn’t with me. If I make this run it will be the same way — from the streets up, not from the elite down.”

ID-Sen '16: Sen. Mike Crapo (R) won't fight his DUI Charge. 

FL-13: The house's longest-serving Republican, Bill Young, got a two-year wavier to remain atop the powerful Defense Appropriations subcomitee. It doesn't take too much dot-connecting to see this as a thank you from leadership for not retiring in 2012. (Young was apparently prodded into running again after initially wanting to retire last year). This move only adds to my suspiscions that Young is a very likely 2014 retirement.

MN-8: Incoming Rep. Rick Nolan has named former rival and ex-Duluth City Councilor Jeff Anderson as his district director, potentially setting up Anderson as Nolan's successor if Nolan leaves in the not-too-distant future.

State & Local:

NYC-Mayor: This profile of supermarket mogul John Catsimatidis might not help his chances for a run on the Republican line. In it, he styles himself as a "common billionare", and says that it was "scary" that a majority of his daughter's business school class was of Asian descent. Those quotes sound somewhat better in context, but it's pretty clear he doesn't exactly posess the politican's touch.

TX-LG: LG David Dewhurst's campaign manager for both his 2010 re-election and 2012 Senate campaign, Kenneth "Buddy" Barfield, has been accused of embezzling $600K from the campaigns.

TX-SD-6: An overview of the election that will take place on the 26th, to replace deceased Sen. Mario Gallegos (D-Houston). The heavily D (but extraordinarily low-tunout) seat basically corresponds to the congressional TX-29 in north and east Houston. The race, a Louisiana-style jungle primary, has been seen as a two-woman contest between State Rep. Carol Alvarado (D) and ex-County Commissioner Sylvia Garcia (D). While both are very liberal, Alvarado is the more establishment choice and Garcia is considered a little more mavericky. R. W. Bray (R), a former aide to a Houston City Councilor and unsuccesful 2012 nominee, is running again. If Bray can make it to a low-interest runoff, he might have an outside chance if turnout is low enough.

TX-St. House: Next Tuesday the TX State House will elect a speaker, and again incumbent Joe Straus (R-San Antonio) will face a challenge from his right, this time in the personage of David Simpson (R-Longview). Like most internal legislative races, this one is wraught with internal politics. Straus is considered a favorite for another term, thanks to his strong support on the Dem side of the aisle.

shamlet :: Political Roundup for January 2, 2013
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Fiscal Cliff map
http://politics.nytimes.com/co...

PA is pretty ultra establishment. Washington, too.

27, R, PA-07.


Same with NY
VA is pretty surprising.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Cantor publically came out against the deal
I suspect the VA delegation is fairly loyal to him, hence their unanimity against it.

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

[ Parent ]
Yes
There are several members in Pennsylvania who could have voted the other way and chose not to for whatever reason.  The Democratic side is not surprising.  Everyone one of them including the so called progressives are establishment figures.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Rigell's no vote
That was a surprise to me.

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


[ Parent ]
Sandy Bill gets pulled
This thing of course was a porked up piece of garbage.

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/n...



27, R, PA-07.


Peter King mulls party switch, calls on NYers to stop funding House GOP
I understand King
Any NYer does and he won't switch parties, he's just fuming. Yes, it has some pork, but it looks terrible to not pass it just because of that when Rs only control 1/3 of government.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
well, that's how you end up borrowing $1 trillion a year
When stuff like this slides without offsetting spending cuts elsewhere.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
It seems like Rs from the midwest and south
Are happy to screw D NY. They don't realize that most of the damage are in GOP districts NY-9, NY-13, NY-3 etc.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Still
This is not about helping these people or not, but the Democrats taking advantage of a tragedy to shove pork down our throughts.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
*throats
Dang autocorrect.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Peter is the original King of the NYGOP Hacks
Loves pork and just wants the Nassau nest feathered. The reason he was able to break out of the Albany/Hempstead morass and comes out smelling cleaner than most of the rest is that he normally does a good job of hiding it.

This is as good an excuse as any to bring up what might be my all-time favorite political article, and the piece that truly got me hooked on analyzing local and Albany hack politics in NYS. http://www.capitalnewyork.com/...

R, WV-1


[ Parent ]
This was a fascinating article


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
King isn't a hack
He has been a very productive member of congress.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
He's an effective & competent hack
Not mutually exclusive. King's a good fit for his suburban Catholic district which sees the world as he does. His main legislative focus is fighting terrorism which is a bipartisan priority in metro NYC ; and puts him at odds with the "Ruby Ridge Republicans" who bristle at law enforcement  

[ Parent ]
Bingo
He's a hack because of what he comes from and who his friends are, which is pure-bred old-school machine politics. Doesn't mean he's incompetent or destructive. I see him as sort of like a Conservative, Congressional version of Menino.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
Yep
He is a hack, but gets the job done.  The problem is when things don't go his way he has a tendency to revert to being a hack.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Article brings back days when Repubs could win statewide in NY
This article brings back to me the days when the Repubs could win statewide in NY - a good read.  Now the Repubs run a nonentity statewide who runs a campaign below the radar screen and gets all of 27% of the vote.  Now the Repubs have to beg for Dem support to keep some control of their last bastion - the NY State Senate. Now the NY Repubs are lucky to have 6 members of the House - while NJ, a state with less than half of NY's population has the same amount. Quite a change over the years.  Oddly enough though, the one thing Repubs still control is the Nassau County Govt, after a Dem interlude.      

[ Parent ]
Nassau is gone come November.
Mangano has been an absolute disaster... there are almost no New York Republicans I have more contempt for than him, and that's really saying something.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
Asterino in Westchester is the party's only long term hope
And I fear he'll get targeted  

[ Parent ]
Agreed! Mangano is the real hack.
He pretty much represents everything that is wrong with the Nassau GOP. If anyone needed to get primaried by a Tea Party candidate or have a Conservative Party challenger its him.

[ Parent ]
Cry baby
This reminds me of the Simpsons episode where some congressman attaches $50 million for the National Endowment of the Arts to a bill meant to save Springfield and it gets voted down.

If the Democrats really cared about the Sandy victims they would strip the pork from the bill and offer offsetting cuts if they insist on the pork.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
LOL. I believe it was...
$30 million dollars for the Perverted Arts.  

[ Parent ]
lol
The Simpsons have been around so long that I am even forgetting episodes.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
It was stripped
King says the republican house version of the bill stripped out all possible pork and it would be reconciled with the senate version in conference?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
2 step bill
The original House bill is a $27 billion bill. Then there was to be an amendment to pork it up with $33 billion more in spending to hit the full $60 billion.

King knows that he, the NY/NJ delegations, a few others, and the Democrats will vote for the $33 billion, while at least 200 Republicans would oppose. He's not stupid.

It's a squeeze play. There's no time to reconcile in conference because they only have 1 more day in the session.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Cliff Vote
Of all the people that voted for it, I think the only one in real primary danger for their existing seat is Cole. It's really a dumb move to make yourself the center of attention like he did with this.

On the other hand, a yes vote is probably poison for those trying to move up in anything but a blue state (i.e. Schock/Kinzinger/Dold will all be ok should they run statewide). But I think this means Womack, Noem, etc. are staying in the house for the foreseeable future.

R, WV-1


Also
I think this is a fairly strong signal that Ryan is not especially likely to run in 2016.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
2016
I'm not entirely convinced that this deal will be another TARP moment for Republicans, especially with 2016 more than three years away, before things are even starting to heat up.

There will be lots and lots of fiscal battles in the months ahead.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker


[ Parent ]
MA-Sen: Brown spanks Markey over state residency
http://www.boston.com/politica...

So much for that Bill Weld comeback.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


Gaah
No Scott, that's not the way you do it. You praise Markey as a great legislative talent, mention that he's been in DC since you were in diapers, and express profound regret that you were not able to make it to his beautiful Bethesda home for drinks while you were serving together.

I'm worried he's losing his sunny touch.

R, WV-1


[ Parent ]
Agreed
Plus I'm not entirely convinced that running against, after having been beaten a few months ago is good optics. Sure, it was another Democratic candidate, but won't some independent people scratch their heads and say "wait, didn't we vote on him last November already"?

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
Its voter regret syndrome
I think a lot of voters who voted against Brown did so with a bit of regret. They liked him but felt they had to vote for a Dem. Now they get a 2nd chance to vote for him when they know it wont effect the balance of control of the Senate.

[ Parent ]
But Brown didn't lose because of independents
He lost because of minorities and young liberals who would never turn out in a single election without Barack Obama atop the Democratic ticket. They won't be pumped up for Ed Markey.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Pennsylvania to sue NCAA
http://www.pennlive.com/midsta...

This is what you call pandering to the mob.  

28, Republican, PA-6


SC-1
Haley's order means party primaries for Scott's former seat from the coastal district will be March 19. Any necessary runoffs would be April 2. The general election will be May 7.

http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_2687...

25, Male, R, NY-10

To the best of my calculations
this would mean a filing dealine of noon on Monday, Jan. 28.

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

[ Parent ]
NY-11
Office of Rep. Grimm says decision to scrap Sandy bill could mean he abstains when voting for Speaker tomorrow.

25, Male, R, NY-10

I'm guessing that means
he may cast a protest vote, so long as it makes no difference.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Does it matter?
Does it really matter if the Sandy vote is today or Saturday?  I really don't understand the whining on this issue.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Pandering
Pandering is about half of a Congressman's job. 40% is ensuring local interests are fed their pork, and the other 10% is legislative stuff.

[ Parent ]
legislation expires when the Congress expires
So I suppose they figure it'll get stalled again as Democrats have to add all their pork back in a second time.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Thank God for Christie!
Man, he ripped into Boehner. Says that it was solely Boehner's decision. Cantor pushed for it.
Boehner must go.

25, Male, R, NY-10

Christie going KIng
Christie: "At the moment, I wouldn't be looking to do much for House leadership."

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Drama ...
Could Boehner withdraw his nomination today, get House Republicans to nominate someone else and proceed with tomorrow's election?

Obviously, the chances of this are very low, but Congress sure does love drama ...  

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker


[ Parent ]
Who?
Does anyone else even want the job right now? Boehner must be having a lot of 'go **** yourself' moments these days. Boehner hasn't requested a single earmark in his 22 years in Congress, so at least he was true to his principles before it became the trendy thing to do..

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Amen
A challenge would likely come from his right and I have very little faith that someone from that end would have a better time doing the job - esp if it was one of the "duh, I sure wish we'd have passed that Plan B" guys (no idea who that could be, Politico said something about it and quite frankly, I can imagine that happening) ...

and big kudos to Boehner for staying strong on earmarks which sure like hell hasn't made his job easier.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker


[ Parent ]
David Brooks laments politicans carrying about reelection
http://www.mercurynews.com/opi...

As much as I sympathize with him, I am not surprised.  

28, Republican, PA-6


Not a problem generally in Singapore
NT

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
A wise move...
...for the general. I'm intrigued to see if a Koch/Bloomberg-style, pro-business, law-and-order Democrat can actually win in a citywide primary today. If she does, the general is probably Likely-to-Safe D, even against Lhota. It's only if Thompson's the nominee that the general becomes interesting.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
sANDY
Rep Peter King R-NY says Speaker Boehner agrees to vote on $9 billion in aid on Friday for Sandy, $51b on Jan 15

25, Male, R, NY-10

Temper tantrum over
Rep Peter King R-NY asked if he will vote for Boehner for Speaker: "Yes I will"

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Same with Grimm


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Grimm
"I need to have your commitment as a man," Rep. Grimm said to Boehner and Cantor in making Sandy deal now.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Grimm
In the last day, he said that he'll oppose the cliff bill before voting for it, said that he won't vote for Boehner before recanting.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Also ends the drama that never existed
of Boehner being in real trouble. Oh, well, we've had enough Congressional drama for a couple of days, anyway.

Next one will come around soon enough.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker


[ Parent ]
It be back after the Debt Fight
Everyone has drawn the wrong lessons from this. Obama has learned that intransigence works, and Republican rank and filer have been promised a fight

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Tweet
That reminds me of a tweet I've read somewhere (I think HotAir). To paraphrase: "If Christie knew that a Sandy vote would be up in the next 72 hours and he still put up his show, he's the new Machiavelli"

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
SC-1 Update
Talking to local GOP operatives and this seems to be the thinking right now for the March 19 primary-
Likelihood of top 2
1) Jenny or Mark Sanford
2) State Sen. Larry Grooms of Berkely County
3) State Reps Chip Limehouse and/or Peter McCoy
4) Rest Of Field

SC1-Charleston

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