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Political Roundup for January 3, 2013

by: shamlet

Thu Jan 03, 2013 at 07:00:00 AM EST


Today we convene the 113th congress. It's going to be a busy day...

Senate:

MA-Sen: In addition to Mike Capuano (see yesterday's AM Roundup), one other prospective senate challenger not intimidated by Ed Markey's show of Dem establishment heft is Rep. Steven Lynch. The blue-collar, socially conservative Lynch would have a difficult time winning a one-on-one primary, but in a multi-player scenario could very well slip through. Lynch would be MA Dems' strongest potential general election candidate against Brown due to their mutual rapport with urban, blue-collar, white-ethnic Dems. But, paradoxically, Lynch might be Dems' weakest choice against the socially liberal blue-blood Weld.

MN-Sen: Rep. Erik Paulsen (R), our best possible recruit against Franken, might or might not have ruled out a run yesterday. So far it's hard to tell. The other major speculated Franken challenger, fellow Rep. John Kline (R), is firmly noncommittal either way.

NJ-Sen: Rep. Frank Pallone (D) is openly making preparations for a bid against Booker - and maybe against Lautenberg too. This could be a very interesting primary.

IL-Sen '16: A very interesting piece on the first-hand details of Mark Kirk's recovery and return to the Senate, including an account of his near-death experience during the stroke. A very worthwhile read.

House:

MO-8: LG Peter Kinder has officially thrown his hat into the ring for selection by Republican comitees (the real contest in this no-primary race). Kinder is considered, by outsiders at least, to be the front-runner. His major competition is Lloyd Smith, a former Emerson CoS and party official. Because of his personal issues, Kinder may be the only Republican capable of making this deep red seat at all competitive for Dems. And if he wins Republicans would lose the LG spot, as Nixon would appoint a Democrat in his stead. What's not to love?

More MO-8: Ex-Treasurer Sarah Steelman is also placing her name in for consideration. But given her maverick repuation, her odds of being selected by a group of Rpublican party insiders are close to nil.

TN-4: State Sen. Jim Tracy (R) is quickly amassing establishment support for his newly-announced Congressional primary bid against Scott DesJarlais. Among the endorsements on his first day are Senate President Ron Ramsey, State Sen. Bill Ketron (himself a perennially speculated candidate for the seat), and ex-Gov Winfield Dunn. Collecting this kind of support is essential in this race, as it's imperative for Republicans not to allow a split vote to allow DesJarlais through.

States:

NJ-Gov: State Sen. Barbara Buono (D) raised about $250K in December.

IL-GOP: Illinois's Republican Party Chair, Pat Brady, has personally come out in favor of Same-Sex Marriage.

shamlet :: Political Roundup for January 3, 2013
Tags: (All Tags)
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IL-GOP
Will there be an effort to oust Brady now?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

MO-8
The problem is that the district won't even be remotely competitive with Kinder. It's a lose-lose situation.

25, Male, R, NY-10

Looking at the general & primary elections
It appears Kinder got the most support from MO-08 in the GOP primary for Lt Governor.

In the general election, he got more support from MO-07, but he carried MO-08 by a significant margin.

It's lean R with Kinder against a well known D; safe R in any other situation.

Lt Governor of it opens up in a special election: R favored; fewer voters from St Louis and KC would show up compared to presidential when Lt Governor election normally held.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Yes
I think Likely R with Kinder against a serious Dem, Safe R otherwise. But even Likely R is absurd for this seat.

I don't think there are special elections for LG in MO; the appointment would carry through to 2016.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Why would a MO Republican Party Committe vote to make a Democrat Lt Gov?
Because that's what they would be doing if the made Kinder the GOP nominee in MO-08. I can't see them voluntarily voting to give up the MO Lt Gov spot to the Dems.

[ Parent ]
Lt Gov has little power in Missouri
We have a super majority in the senate so don't need a tie-breaker.

I guess the thinking could be that if Kinder becomes a congressman he won't run for Governor in 2016.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
NRCC unveils its Democrats' retirement package.
http://www.nrcc.org/wp-content...

Ron Barber (AZ-02)
John Barrow (GA-12)
Tim Bishop (NY-01)
Bruce Braley (IA-01)
Jim Matheson (UT-04)
Jerry McNerney (CA-09)
Collin Peterson (MN-07)
Nick Rahall (WV-03)
Louise Slaughter (NY-25)
Tim Walz (MN-01)

No McIntyre.

27, R, PA-07.


must have been an oversight
I consider it more likely to beat McIntyre than several of the Democrats mentioned.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
doesn't seem like it's about "beating" them
But trying to jokingly coax them to retire.

[ Parent ]
Maybe not
You have to have someone willing to waste a year of their time and a whole lot of money to run against McIntyre. Without Obama atop the ballot again, this district will probably revert to form. Before 2010 McIntyre and Etheridge were easily pulling 60%+ of the combined district vote (granted, it was against relative nonentities). In any case, most statewide Dem candidates pull something in the high 40s percent-wise in this district. Now that McIntyre will be the incumbent for the whole district, it's not hard to see how he does at least 3%-4% better than typical Dem performance.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Meh
He's still a much easier target than many on that list. We came within a few hundred votes of knocking him off with a B-minus level candidate in a moderately Democratic year. Obama will still be in office and will still be unpopular among Southern whites in 2014, but you won't have presidential turnout among minorities. McIntyre would lose long before Peterson or Slaughter.

[ Parent ]
Yes, but
McIntyre certainly won't retire before Peterson or Slaughter...

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
This may have something to do with recruits given there are better pickup possibilities
McSally, Brooks, Gill, and Love all look like rematch possibilities. Rahall, Walz, Barrow, and Bishop need better challengers. While, Peterson and Braley are retirement possibilities, with the latter possibly seeking higher office.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
WV-3
Let Snuffer try again. For now he's about the best we can do in that seat.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
This is a joke list
1. Where is Bill Owens? NY-21 is competitive, regardless of whether he's on the ballot.
2. Tim Bishop, Jerry McNerney, and Tim Walz are not retiring. Bishop wouldn't have run against Altschuler in two grueling, back-to-back races if he intended to retire in '14. McNerney and Walz are even more unlikely to retire; they were just elected to a fourth term.
3. If Bruce Braley and Louise Slaughter retire, Democrats will succeed them. Braley now represents the most Democratic district in IA; Obama won it with 56 percent in '12. Slaughter's seat is even more Democratic. Moreover, any talk of a strong Republican recruit in her district deserves a roll of the eyes. Maggie Brooks -- while better than the typical sacrificial lamb who challenges Slaughter -- doesn't have what is required to put a D plus 5 or higher seat in play.
4. Ron Barber ain't retiring -- voluntarily. Voters will push him out in his expected rematch with McSally.

Ryan/Kasich 2016

[ Parent ]
Barber
I disagree, I peg him as a very likely retirement. His nonchalance regarding this year's postgame, which is a time when when most politicians are screaming at the top of their lungs, suggests he doesn't really love being in Congress and may not want the tough fight he's sure to get in 2014.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
NY-25
Remember that turnout will crater in the Fatal Crescent next year. The electorate there will be more like D+1 or so than D+5.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Fmr. Councilman Albanese running for NYC mayor
http://politicker.com/2013/01/...

He ran an amusingly spirited campaign in '97, finishing third in the primary. In '13, he'll be lucky to get into a debate.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


Got my first paycheck of 2013
Thank you Obama for cutting my paycheck. No, I don't earn over 100k. I thought he was only raising taxes on those earning over 400k... Lol

25, Male, R, NY-10

Social Security
The temporary 4.2% rate instituted by Obama in early 2009 was allowed to expire with the deal and reverted back to 6.2%

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
2011, not 2009
The 2% payroll cut was passed in the 2010 lame duck session, so it was only in place for 2011 & 2012.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Thanks for pointing it out
I'm not a wonk...
Most junkies sadly aren't...

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Israel update
Likud-beytenu is losing steam, down to 34-35 seats at the polls. The beneficiary is Jewish home's Bennett with 12-14 seats in average and up to 17 in the most optimistic polls (5 seats in the current Knesset). Right now the polls show this picture:
Likud-Beytenu with 34-35 seats (42)
Labour with 17-18 seats (8)
Jewish Home with 12-14 seats (5)
Shas with 10-11 seats (11)
HaTnua with 10-11 seats (7)
Yesh Atid with 10-11 seats (0)
3 Arab parties combined with 11-12 seats (11)
UTJ with 5-6 seats (5)
Meretz with 4-5 seats (3)
Otzma LeIsrael with 0-3 seats (2)
Kadima with 0-2 seats (21)

I am ignorant when it comes to a lot of these parties
But what in the world happened to Kadima? From 21 to possibly 0?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
This thread should help you
Hope it answers your questions.
http://www.redracinghorses.com...

[ Parent ]
Thank you
When is the actual election?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
1/22


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Here's a link to a polls website
in Hebrew but should be understandable as the number of current seats is mentioned.
http://elections.oneplusone.co...

[ Parent ]
This site tries to copy 538's system
http://www.batelbe60.com/

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
We'll have to wait and see how they're doing


[ Parent ]
Went to bed last night...
for the last time that my bed will be in IL-10. Hello, Comrade Jan. :(

When I go back to campus, my half of campus will still be in DelCo (PA-07) but the Lower Merion part will be in PA-02 instead of PA-06.  


My city would have probably switched districts
Except that it's my congressman's (Mike Capuano) hometown, so he got to keep it and they took out half of Cambridge instead.

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

[ Parent ]
be glad
You aren't switching from Dan Webster to Alan Grayson...

[ Parent ]
Comrade Jan
(I hope it's ok to use that term just for today after not using it for over a year) Jan's probably even ideologically worse than Alan Grayson, although certainly not as much of a loudmouth. Thankfully, I'm registered in PA-07. Nevertheless, I'll hate to see the heart of the North Shore (most of the New Trier High School district) along with Glenview, parts of Northbrook, Prospect Heights, and Arlington Heights all lack real representation of any kind over the next decade. Jan won't even step foot in the northern flank of the district. We'll be like MA-06, where John Tierney probably hadn't stepped foot in Boxford, North Andover, Lynnfield, etc. ever until this past election.

[ Parent ]
Lynch v. Weld
could be a replay of Weld's 1990 victory. I doubt he'd win Cambridge this time, national politics are too polarizing, but he could do very well in the wealthy suburbs that typically vote Dem over social issues.

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

Here's the results from 1990
http://www.commonwealthmagazin...

Compare verses how Scott Brown won.  Very very different path to victory.

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7


[ Parent ]
Times Have Changed
In the 2001 special, a much more conservative Lynch faced State Senator Jo Ann Sprague, a Pro-Choice, Pro-Gay rights Republican who tried to run to his left. She was crushed, 67-33. Even the Boston Phoenix and Bay Windows endorsed Lynch, claiming that a Democratic House was more important than the candidates in the race.

He might do worse in Senate special, but the place where it will happen will not be in Cambridge, Newton, or Brookline.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
South Shore != Metro West
A liberal Republican was crushed by a conservative Democrat in a seat full of conservative Democrats. And that's your evidence?

Lynch will lose plenty of votes in Cambridge against Weld. He won't lose the city, but there are enough single-issue social liberals that Weld could get into the 30s here, and overperform the R baseline similarly in Arlington, Lexington, etc. Meanwhile Lynch probably carries Quincy 70-30.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Its not that he lost its the margin
You don't think losing 65-32 as a long-time State Senator in a 66% Gore/Nader district against Lynch is perhaps evidence that the "run to the left of the Democrat in a federal race" idea really doesn't work?

Single-Issue Social liberals did not vote for Jo Ann Sprague even in that district. All of their mouth-pieces backed Lynch. She under-performed George W. Bush. The reason was simple. The problem of single-issue social liberals in Massachusetts is not with the Massachusetts Republican party but with the national Republican party, and the people in those towns are not local "voters" but national voters. They will vote on Senate control, and there will be nothing that will move 99% of single-issue social liberals into voting Republican for Senate in the current environment that the candidate themselves can control. It will depend on the national environment at the time the election happens. Lynch will promise to confirm Obama's judges and to support fillibuster reform, and Weld will be forced into contortions about "moderating" the GOP caucus.

Moderate and old-line voters by contrast are gettable for the GOP but not by Weld. He has the same problem Ronnie Musgrove had in Mississippi in 2008. An observer of politics there mentioned to me its hard to be hired for a new job if voters felt they were correct to fire you from the old one. While Weld was not fired, I have seen few signs of nostalgia for the Weld-Cellucci-Swift years outside of Boston media circles, at least in Lexington among voters who actually voted for Weld/Cellucci Weld, the to the extent he is remembered, is remembered for the way he left office, and in association with his two successors.

Republicans would be much better advised here to run a fresh face like Dan Winslow who could actually gain the support of undecided voters. I am skeptical Bill Weld could be competitive even in a 2010-esque environment against Coakley. He has too much baggage, too little residual goodwill, and his whole strategy of running to the left of the Democrat is completely non-viable in a federal race and failed the last time it was tried against Lynch.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Stop Shifting the Goalposts
the topic was whether Weld can overperform Generic R against Lynch in socially liberal towns, not whether he would win.

And Sprague did overperform Generic R in that race. She got 45% in the suburban (non-Boston, non-Brockton) portion of the seat, which still included plenty of blue collar towns like Taunton, Randolph, and Canton. The reason she got blown out was that she underperformed Generic R in Boston (W. Roxbury, Dorchester, Southie). She only got 12% there. Now I don't know Bush's exact total in that portion of the city but I will bet you it was more than 12% considering McCain got around 40% in those areas.

Sprague didn't overperform Generic R because the social liberal areas where she did do so were counterbalanced by social conservative areas where Lynch over-performed Generic D.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
This whole mini-thread is moot because...
....Scott Brown is running again and Weld has said he won't challenge him.

R/MA-9; hometown CT-2; lonely MSM conservative.

[ Parent ]
If Brown loses the special
I wonder if Weld would run a sacrifical lamb race in 2014? He seems like he genuinely wants to try his luck, he doesn't really have the luxury of time, and he's obviously unafraid of quixotic quests.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
If Brown loses the special
He could still run for governor.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Two losses in a row
and you start seriously losing credibility.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Oh, Lizzie, you're a card
http://bostonherald.com/news_o...

She's going to be a gift.

"Republicans made their position clear," said Warren about the recent fiscal cliff process. "They didn't like the deal because there weren't enough cuts imposed on seniors and because there weren't enough breaks for billionaires. That's a pretty shocking position."

I can't find anyone who said that they regret not imposing cuts on seniors and there weren't enough breaks for billionaires. You'd think if they made it clear someone would've said something like this.

Of course after creating a straw man position in order to alienate Republicans before she's even sworn in, Warren talks about her bi-partisan credentials.

"I have already started reaching across the aisle," she said. "[Bob Corker] is a very thoughtful man."

I'm all for bi-partisanship and, if I were in congress, I'd try to work with Democrats. I wouldn't take Warren's phone calls. I have a feeling I'd hang up the phone thinking something good could happen and then she'd trash me in the press.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Pyromaniac in a Field of Straw Men
best metaphor ever for her, and it still fits.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
why not just appoint Markey to the Senate Seat?
Patrick might have promised a 'placeholder' but its not like reneging on such will really damage them.

27, R, PA-07.

Doubt Markey would want it
He'd have to resign his house seat.

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

[ Parent ]
Good point


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
So did Heller. So does Scott.
You either want to be a Senator or you don't.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Their appointments were longer
Being senator until the next general election is more rewarding than just for a four month period, during which you'd be campaigning.

Also, MA has a long tradition of cascading special elections; it's the primary way politicos move to higher seats here.  They're very used to the safety it provides and would be reluctant to change that.

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7


[ Parent ]
Demonstrating my point...
Markey himself was first elected to the house in a special election in 1976.

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

[ Parent ]
Difference
If Markey loses the special senate election he keeps his House seat. Since Scott and Heller stood for a special senate election on the same day their House seats were also up they couldn't run for both.

That's what makes this special more attractive to Massachusetts House Democrats. You risk nothing.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Would Markey's chances improves if he was appointed?
Doubtful. The benefits of incumbency aren't traditionally reaped by newbies.

For proof, look to Dean Heller. He didn't win because he had better name recognition than Berkley or because he had a larger war chest. He won because Berkley was tainted by scandal. Incumbency did little to put Heller over the finish line.

Ryan/Kasich 2016


[ Parent ]
Hastert slammed Boehner on FOX
for breaking the Hastert rule.

25, Male, R, NY-10

Who will Amash vote for?


25, Male, R, NY-10

For Labrador...
Idiot

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Bentivolio voted for Boehner...


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
More
Rep Jim Bridenstine R-OK votes for Rep Eric Cantor R-VA
Blackburn did not vote. Same with Bachmann.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Bachmann votes for herself
Will Gohmert defect? Stockman?

Blackburn voted for herself as well


[ Parent ]
Barrow for Lewis


25, Male, R, NY-10

With Bridenstine, that's 4 non-Boehner votes already
This could be very close.

Why did they call up Allen West?


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
And Paul Broun votes for Allen West....
Headdesk

Ah
Now I get it...

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
The Speaker need not be a Member
A rarely thought-of rule, but a rule nonetheless.

[ Parent ]
Cantor for Boehner...


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Switch to new thread
nt

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Touching Kirk return to Senate
http://www.rollcall.com/news/k...

Stories like that make my heart feel warm. Why is it, that they all can get along just fine when not on the floor, trying to tear each other apart? Sure, it's part of the political process, but a little bit more humanity and less crass partisanship would suit Congress well.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker


NJ-Gov
Christie raises $2.1M in one month, with zero actual fundraisers.

http://www.nj.com/politics/ind...


Yes, it's still centuries in political time, but
Christe is looking good these days. Most of his critics are propably out-of-state conservatives who hate his performance on Sandy beginning with hugging Obama and ending with the thing he pulled off on the relief bill.

DGA will propably make a much stronger bid for VA, then for NJ, unless Christie screws up big time.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker


[ Parent ]
Carmona looking at AZ-GOV
(snark)PPP: With Arizona trending blue, it's Carmona's to take
on a more serious note, though, Carmona lost by a mere 4% in November.

Brewer is term limited, so it's an open seat ... any strong Republican candidates out there who'd be able to fend off a Carmona bid?

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker


[ Parent ]
3%
Carmona lost by 3%, not 4%. 49.2-46.2.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
RCP tells a different story
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
RCP is wrong.


(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Minnesota Legislature
State Representative Steve Gottwalt (R-St. Cloud) has taken a position as director of legislative lobbying for a private firm. This wouldn't really be noteworthy except he is not resigning to do it, and is claiming its not a conflict of interest. I suspect he will resign after Speaker Thissen launches a probe into this matter, as it is not the first time Gottwalt has had such a conflict of interest, having previously worked for a company that was lobbying a committee he was currently chairman of. There will almost certainly be a special election in the next couple months.

http://www.wday.com/event/arti...

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


Uhm ... why would he be doing that?
nt

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
What are you questioning?
Q: Why is he taking this job?
A: It pays a lot of money, AK imagine

Q: Why is he not resigning?
A: Not all politicians care about ethics

Q: Why is he saying its not a conflict of interest?
A: I am not sure. Either he is delusional enough to believe it, or he fears getting thrown out of office if he admits the conflict of interest.

Either way, he is on his way out the door, likely by force.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
NJ-Sen
I knew the Congressmen who have been waiting out Frank L. would not take kindly to Booker pushing them aside.  The twist is that Frank Pallone was the candidate for that very seat in 2002 for about 2 hours, until his wife talked him out of it while he was walking the streets of Princeton.  

Torricelli said he would stand aside only if the candidate to replace him was not Lautenberg.  After Pallone said no, it was Lautenberg.

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10...


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