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Weekend Open Thread

by: shamlet

Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 23:00:00 PM EST


Let's talk retirement-

1. Who are the next 3 Senate retirements we'll see?

2. Other than the one we know about (Deval Patrick), will any Governors eligible for re-election forgo it?

shamlet :: Weekend Open Thread
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Weekend Open Thread | 71 comments
PA-Gov: More PPP Shenanigans
Unreleased R primary poll - Corbett 51 Castor 11. My guess as to why they didn't release it? Corbett is strongest on the right. http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

Think Castor could run a Sandoval-style "I'm not the incumbent" race here.

R - MD-7


Poll
Seeing Corbett has universal name ID and Castor is pretty much Montco based, this is not good for Corbett.  It really indicates Corbett is vulnerable.  Primaries break late in Pennsylvania, ie Specter's last two primaries.

The problem with beating Corbett is western PA. He remains popular there and has no PSU blowback there either.  

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Agreed
He has a year to fix the problem, but he is in much worse position than Snyder and Kasich thats for sure.

I wonder if hes in worse shape than Scott?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Hmm...
1. I'll go with three Democrats - Johnson, Lautenberg and Levin.

2. I'll go with Brown and I suspect Brewer ultimately backs away from her efforts to bend her state's term limits law.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


Answers
1: Lautenberg, Collins, Chambliss

2. Quinn I bet hangs it up. Dayton says he is running, but he has never run for reelection for anything in his life, so it isn't a guarantee.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


Breaking News: Lautenberg won't seek reelection
http://m.nbcnewyork.com/nbcnew...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Lautenberg disputed right away
Or at least an aide did.  Either someone let the cat out of the bag early, or someone has a bad source.

Lautenberg may be trying to line up support for Pallone behind the scenes.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Answers
1. Lautenberg, Johnson & Collins

2. I think Corbett will forego if his polling stays the same.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


Middlesex, Mass. DA
Gerry Leone (D) is not running for re-election (or for AG for that matter) in 2014. The Middlesex DA post has been a straight shot to the AG's office since 1990, so it will be an attractive opening for a bunch of Dems. The race is Safe D but the primary might be interesting. http://bostonherald.com/news_o...

R - MD-7

John Kerry
John Kerry is a former assistant DA in Middlesex.

[ Parent ]
And then they go on to disappointing losses
Harshbarger, Reilly, and Coakley all started out as favorites in their races and ended up losing, the latter two embarrassingly.

[ Parent ]
Hex on the AG's office
Each of the last nine(!) AGs have suffered disappointing losses, and only one was able to get elected to anything beyond AG.

McCormack - lost to Edward Moore whatshisname in 1962.
Brooke - won the Senate seat, but lost it in 1978 because of Barbara Walters
Richardson - lost the 1984 Senate primary to Shamie
Quinn - lost to Dukakis in the 1974 primary
Belotti - lost to Silber in 1990.
Shannon - went down in the 1980 AG primary
And then Harshbarger, Reilly, and Coakley.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
We might have the longest hex
But we're not the only state. AG's have had a tough time getting elected to higher office lately.

[ Parent ]
Bill Clinton
Was once Arkansas AG.

[ Parent ]
Eh
Bullock, Sandoval, Corbett, Cuomo, Heitkamp, Blumenthal, J. Brown, McDonnell, Ayotte (though the NH AG is in practice more like a US Attorney than a regular AG). It's just that AGs seek higher office so frequently they're bound to fail often.

The other one that seems to be developing a bit of a curse on it is Illinois - Scott, Hartigan, Burris, Jim Ryan - all had their careers end in various degrees of embarrassment. Let's hope the trend continues...

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
But for every one of those....
McKenna, Goddard, Bruning, Edmondson, McCollum, McMaster, Cox, Lynch, Coakley. For every one that succeeds, another flops, and the flops tend to be notable because they usually start the race as a favorite (at least to win their primary).

[ Parent ]
50% is still a pretty good success rate in politics
And of those, only McKenna, Bruning, McCollum, and Coakley would have been considered favorites at the start of their campaigns. Lynch, Cox, and McMaster were all never better than even-money in their primaries.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
don't forget Jerry Brown
although he's also a former Gov.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
oops
I missed that you'd mentioned him.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Brown
deserved to be mentioned twice;)

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
Brown 2006
In his 2006 campaign for AG, Brown, the son of former AG (1950-58) & Governor (1958-66) Pat Brown, mention that he has known every AG since Earl Warren.

[ Parent ]
Answers
1. Johnson, Enzi, a (somewhat) surprise from either Durbin or Warner.

2. I could see Rick Snyder not running if RTW polls really poorly over the course of 2013.

Quinn probably won't run. (Hello Governor Madigan)

Maybe Abercrombie?

Mainstream Dem.  


Revision...
1. Lautenberg, Johnson, Enzi.

Still could see a surprise from Durbin or Warner.

Mainstream Dem.  


[ Parent ]
Bill Daley investigating a run in Illinois
This is the former white house chief of staff, not the former mayor (Richard Daley).

He has hired Anzalone Liszt to do some polling.

http://capitolfax.com/2013/01/...

Have not heard anything about Lisa Madigan's intentions this time around.  Of course she has time, and I have not heard anything about what her dad might be doing to line up establishment support for her.  When she ran for AG her dad made it clear that there would be repercussions to anyone not supporting her.  Democratic state reps were even required to turn over Christmas card lists to the Madigan campaign or face cutoff of pork in their districts.  Perhaps the Madigans could scare off Daley if they wish to.  Illinois Democrats have again and again voted for whoever the establishment supports, even Blago 2 times (heavily backed by unions).

Have not heard a peep about Quinn's intentions.  I doubt he would make it through a primary vs. Madigan or Daley.  My guess is that either Madigan or Daley would be better for Illinois than the well-meaning but ineffective Quinn.

IL-11/M/44/Libertarianish Independent


[ Parent ]
Warner's running
If he weren't, he would have run for Governor this year.

[ Parent ]
NJ-Sen; Add another name to the mix
http://www.nj.com/politics/ind...

I really hope John Crowley gets in. A messy primary during a midterm cycle is our only hope with a great candidate. He would have to prove the last part, but his story is so great that he has potential, especially as an outsider.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


IA-Sen; Grassley doesn't think Harkin will have trouble getting reelected
http://www.desmoinesregister.c...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

I would probably agree
Latham or Brandstad might be a fierce matchup, but I doubt either runs.  Does King run?

If Harkin retires, which I doubt, does T Vilsack run?  Does Braley?  Or is Braley waiting on Grasserly?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
I doubt Braley would pass up an opportunity to move up
My guess would be a Braley vs Reynolds match up with little primary competition on both sides.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
If Branstad wanted to be a Senator
Why would he wait this long to try?

But, then, I guess the same thing could have been said about Tommy Thompson in 2012.


[ Parent ]
Waiting on Grassley is a bad idea
If Grassley runs for reelection in 2016, he's almost surely guaranteed to win. He's extremely popular and it would mean Braley wouldn't get to move up until 2020 or 2022.


[ Parent ]
HI-Sen/Gov; Hanabusa open to either along with reelection
http://www.khon2.com/content/n...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

PPP: Trillion Dollar Coin Unpopular in FL
I know it's more of a policy topic, but it's good to the idea isn't popular in a major swing state with a several competitive House seats.

Public opinion running about 5:1 against the Trillion Dollar Coin on the first night of our Florida poll among those with an opinion on it

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/s...

33, R, IN-09


It's a terrible idea
On every level.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Inflation has been low for a long time
Which is largely due to the recession. But if gimmicks lick this were were allowed, the paranoid people thinking that the dollar is going to be devalued would not be so crazy afterall, as this WOULD devalue our currency.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
I don't think we are at risk of post-WWI Germany inflation with the coin, but there could be some issues.  From everything I have read, it is likely legal, but that doesn't make it a good idea.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Yes, it's a terrible idea
But it may be the best option available.

[ Parent ]
CT-05: Roraback to run again?
http://nhregister.com/articles...

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


UT-AG, NV-SEN
http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/h...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Scott Brown for governor?
http://www.politico.com/story/...

Some people feel the jobs of senator and governor are interchangeable. Being a legislator is as difficult a job as you make it, but you don't have to be the one proposing complex solutions. Being a governor is being in charge of everything the state does everyday.

Of course they also can be different electorally. People are looking for the person they believe has the best ideas and is most capable of running the state when voting for governor, while they frequently go more ideological on the senate.

I see Brown having a tough time winning two senate races in two years. if he wants the senate, he might be better off passing on the senate and running against Markey in 2014, assuming Markey wins. I don't think the seat becomes more difficult for Brown if Markey is the incumbent rather than himself. He might have an easier time running against Markey's votes than justifying his own.

Of course there's a chance that a Republican could win the seat. In that case, Brown could seek a rematch with Warren in 2018.

Brown's star power does dwarf anyone else in a gubernatorial race. I think he'd be more likely to win this because, as the article points out, Massachusetts swing voters may want to bolster Obama but put a check on the Democratic legislature.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Would it really be a check though?
The State Senate is 90% Democratic and The State House is 80% Democratic. They could pass whatever they want.

[ Parent ]
Overriding a veto
A little research shows that the legislature overrode 85% of Romney's vetoes. In California they couldn't just override Schwarzenegger's vetoes, so it might be different. The governor can influence legislation and policy. He also appoints people in the executive branch and judges. So there are ways to provide some checks and balances.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
It's more in theory than practice
Democratic-leaning voters will consider a Republican who pledges to take a fiscally responsible, managerial role, because they know the legislature can still do whatever it likes. It also reduces the intraparty warring that blighted the first 3 years of the Patrick Administration, before Deval figured out how to play nice.

[ Parent ]
Brown won't wait for the 2014 or 2016 Senate election
The last time a Republican defeated a Democratic incumbent in a statewide race was 1952. We've also defeated only two Democratic Congressmen over that time period--Early and Mavroules in 1992 after they were involved in the House Bank scandal.

Once Democrats get into office in Massachusetts, they are there until they die, retire, or very, very rarely lose a primary. If Brown wants to return to the Senate, this will be his only chance. If he passes it means he's running for Governor.


[ Parent ]
Markey
You really feel he'd be tougher to beat if he wins the special over token competition?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Yes
Massachusetts voters won't fire an inoffensive Democrat. Plus the June 2013 turnout will be more favorable for Brown than the November 2014 turnout would.

Finally, I'm not understanding your theory that Brown would rather run as a challenger than an incumbent in 2014. It's true that he will have votes to defend, but they're largely the same votes he's already taken (and will be hit on no matter when he runs). And if he wins in '13, he'll face a weaker field in '14 (barring another Warren), because the Congressmen won't have the free pass they have now.


[ Parent ]
Your points
The January 2010 turn-out was similar to a mid-term. You'd know how it differs better than I would. Of course any election that occurs after the college semester is over has to lower the turn-out of those [impression of Scooby-Doo villain] those kids. Yet even if he wins in June he still has to face the November 2014 electorate. So he doesn't help himself there.

My theory on votes has to do with the idea that one of the things that hurt Brown was senate votes and that the further we get from them and not having to make them during an election could be advantageous.

I do see where you're coming from with a weaker field, but let's flip that. Brown's ridicule of Markey's candidacy may indicate that Markey is his preferred opponent. If Markey wins in June, then he's the 2014 opponent. If Brown beats Markey in June then there might be a tougher 2014 opponent. I think the longer period in 2011-2012 allowed Warren to become a better candidate. Markey is as good as he's going to be.

A big question is who we'd want as the Democrat in 2014. If we want Markey, then it might be better if he wins a special.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Nationally MA-Sen election wins the GOP nothing
It'll reduce the Democratic margin from 55-45 to 54-46. That's not much of a win. The 2014 election could help Republicans with the majority any of the next three congresses. I see no point in going all out for it.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
If we win MA
In the special and hold it, LA, WV, SD, AK, AR gets us the majority, and we still have room for error in one of those (most likely AK or AR) if we can bag NC, MT, or something else. Without MA, we have no room for error. We HAVE to win LA, WV, SD, AK, AR, and NC to get to 51, unless we can pull off an unlikely win in MT or another state, which is very doubtful. MA is a huge boost.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Remember Weld
I'm not convinced at all Weld can't win. Markey will think he can sleepwalk if Brown passes. Weld will then run because he wants to... and presto, you have Brown vs. Coakley redux.

Weld's strength that most people miss (including me until about a month or two ago) isn't that he's a social liberal - it's that he only does what he likes to do, and consequently has a really good time doing it. Having fun is the best thing in MA politics, because the more optimistic candidate always wins.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
I'm confident Weld would run a memorable, feisty campaign
And Markey might well run like the walking dead.

I guess my biggest fear with Weld is the effectiveness of a carpetbagging charge. He did, after all, run for New York governor, to disastrous results, less than a decade ago. And I think, at the end of the day, a Weld comeback evokes more amusement than actual excitement. I, of course, however, would be out dancing in the streets for his candidacy. Even more so than Brown.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
At the end of the day, it's pretty easy to excite MA Rs
I mean, most of the party besides the hardcore SoCons got excited by Baker, a good-but-not-great candidate who ran a mediocre to bad campaign. If Weld looks like he has a chance at winning he'll generate excitement on that alone.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Roll Call and Cook
Roll Call has AK, AR, LA, NC, SD, and WV as toss-up, along with MN, MT, and NH as Lean D. Cook only has WV and SD as toss-ups, but has the rest of them along with MA and IA as toss-ups. I think they're optimistic, but Democrats will retire and the GOP may get some good recruits. Barring a Susan Collins retirement I can't picture any GOP seats becoming competitive.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Its about patronage
There is little reason for a successful individual with a career and a life to give those up to serve as a Republican State Representative or Senator. There is no prospect of power, little of moving up, and the pay is terrible.

What makes it worth it is the way Massachusetts pensions work. Because they are based on 70% of the top three years of state employment, being appointed to a hack position that pays 200K+ means that a legislator can retire after a decade and half in their mid-50s with a pension in excess of 150K for the rest of their life.

Thats why the Governorship was so important to the MA GOP. It ensured a steady stream of candidates for office, since they knew they had a landing pad if, as was likely, they lost.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
General Powell
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Anybody else tired of this guy? His way of criticizing benefits only the Democratic party, not the Republican party. If all you do is repeat Democratic talking points, you aren't a Republican. Has General Powell ever supported any social or fiscal Republican position? You can be critical of your party in a supportive manner. Instead he's just called Republicans racists.

Artur Davis was a moderate Democrat. At least when he stopped supporting Democratic policies he had the good sense to leave a party that he no longer agreed with. I'm pretty sure that what he says is dismissed in the liberal blogosphere.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Wrong
Davis was not a moderate Democrat.  He was very clearly a pretty liberal Democrat.  He was no Gene Taylor or even Steny Hoyer.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
DW Nominate tells a slightly different story.
He flew between 165th and 185th from a quick scan of the years I checked. Usually around folks like Titus, Mollohan, Cooper, and such. Not a conservadem and clearly no hints of going full Republican as he has in the past few years, but he wasn't a liberal.  

[ Parent ]
Your Incorrect
Davis finished in 2010 after 8 years with a 21.3 lifetime ACU rating, very much a moderate. By contrast, Hoyer who you identify as more conservative had a 7 lifetime rating after 2010. Ben Chandler had a 23 lifetime rating after 2010. And people think of him as a moderate/conservative Democrat.  

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
ACU Lifetime Ratings 2010
All Democrats with a lifetime score above 20, and the two Republicans with a lifetime score below 50.

Bright: 65.00
Griffith: 75.5

Kirkpatrick: 36.00
Mitchell: 27.25

Berry: 35.19
Ross: 34.90

Cardoza: 22.38
Costa: 20.17

Boyd: 32.10

Bishop: 29.38
Marshall: 45.35
Barrow: 33.00

Djou (R): 38.00

Bean: 21.67
Costello: 30.98

Donnelly: 30.25
Ellsworth: 24.25

Boswell: 23.58

Chandler: 23.83

Cao (R): 42.00
Melancon: 36.98

Kratovil: 20.50

Stupak: 20.37

Peterson: 43.12

Childers: 38.67
Taylor: 64.60

Skelton: 45.11

Etheridge: 20.76
McIntyre: 49.57
Shuler: 28.50

Pomeroy: 21.18

Boren: 49.83

Altmire: 23.25
Kanjoski: 20.10
Critz: 36.00
Holden: 37.59

Spratt: 20.86

Herseth: 27.63

Davis: 46.65
Cooper: 24.50
Gordon: 27.17
Tanner: 39.40

Reyes: 21.35
Edwards: 29.55
Ortiz: 30.52
Cuellar: 29.56
Green: 21.50

Matheson: 38.30

Nye: 30.50

Mollohan: 29.58
Rahall: 20.73

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Artur Davis
ACU Ratings

2003: 28
2004: 24
2005: 28
2006: 44
2007: 4
2008: 12
2009: 20
2010: 7

Life: 21.38

ADA Ratings

2003: 90
2004: 75
2005: 80
2006: 75
2007: 90
2008: 85
2009: 70
2010: 55

Life: 77.50

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Davis got elected to Congress as a neo-con
Lets not forget the main issue in Davis' 2002 primary with Earl Hilliard was the War on Terror and US policy towards Israel. Davis ran as a neo-con and critizied Hilliard's close ties to Libya & Gaddafi. Davis came to Congress because of his Conservative foriegn policy positions.

[ Parent ]
Blue Mass Group is unhappy
http://nationaljournal.com/con...

http://bluemassgroup.com/2013/...

Ed Markey has hired some old seasoned vets that worked for Joe Biden, Jimmy Carter, and Walter Mondale. David at Blue Mass Group doesn't like that combination for Markey. Down the page someone points out that these are seasoned vets who've worked on a lot of campaigns.

That's great. To a point.

I spent some time around the Kuykendall campaign in Dec-Jan 2011-2012. Steve was content to run his campaign the same way he'd run campaigns in the past. When I stopped hearing back from his people, I lost interest. And Steve got slaughtered in the primary.

Because you can't run a campaign in 2012-2014 the same way you ran a campaign in the 90's. The world has changed and campaigns have evolved along with it. I've gotten to know a few old vets since I've gotten involved with politics. If I ever ran for anything I'd definitely feel lucky if I had people who worked on winning gubernatorial races on my team, but I'd want most of the people to be young who weren't thinking of how they used to win races but how to win races now.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Bad source
Markey's campaign manager is Sarah Benzing, who just ran Sherrod Brown's campaign.

Colleen Coffey and Michael Pratt, who were in charge of Elizabeth Warren's finance operation were just hired by Markey.

For every staffer who's served on campaigns for a long time, you get new staffers as well.

http://www.masslive.com/politi...


[ Parent ]
That's better
Brown, who is pretty liberal, won in a swing state. That's the kind of person you want running your campaign. Having Elizabeth Warren's finance team is great, but finance just helps you get the money. Then you have to do something with it.

Of course you get new staffers. Most campaigns are full of young people. It's the senior staff that you need to have people who know how to win now. I wouldn't have too many people whose resumes are loaded with winning campaigns in the 70's and 80's. In the case of Carter, Mondale, and Biden '08, losing them.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
IA-SOS: Statewide Obama Campaign Manager Brad Anderson to run
Anderson's steering campaign consists of all the big Democratic names in Iowa: Loebsack, Vilsack, Harkin, Braley, Dvorsky, and Culver.

http://www.radioiowa.com/2013/...


Collision course with Culver?
Culver has indicated he may want to try to make a comeback.

Mainstream Dem.  

[ Parent ]
Probably a tea leaf that Harkin is running again
The question would then become whether Harkin would draw a serious challenge or not.

[ Parent ]
isn't Branstad very popular?
Seems unwise considering Grassley is likely 50 50 on retirement in 2016.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
PPP had him at 49/40 most recently
Not bad at all. He was unpopular early in his term, but he recovered around the same time as many of the other Republican governors did.

[ Parent ]
Weekend Open Thread | 71 comments
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