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Elections have consequences, from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. Those elections are the products of fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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Political Roundup for January 14th, 2013

by: Daniel Surman

Mon Jan 14, 2013 at 08:00:00 AM EST


Welcome back to another week of roundups.

President

Biden: Roll Call takes a look at the insider position Biden could play after his role in brokering a fiscal cliff deal and his position heading the gun violence task force in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary.

Senate

Nevada: This reads like a soap opera, but here goes. Utah businessman Jeremy Johnson faces federal charges on a variety of financial issues- felony bank fraud and money laundering, among others. Johnson argues Utah Attorney General John Swallow (R), who met with him about the FTC probe he faced, connected him to businessman Richard Rawle, a businessman who was supposedly Senator Harry Reid's contact. to pay him an eventual total of $600k to make the probe go away. Johnson claims some of the money was paid but that the probe continued. Reid has disavowed any knowledge of such an arrangement.

Hawaii: The intra-party Democratic infighting here continues, with Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D) openly considering running for either Governor or US Senate. Currently, those positions are filled by two rivals, Governor Neil Abercrombie and Senator Brian Schatz, respectively. She may also run for re-election, for which she is already fundraising. It may be easier for her to run for Senate from a logistical point of view- she may simply transfer her campaign funds from a House to Senate campaign, but she may not directly transfer funds from a federal to a state campaign.

New Jersey
: Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver (D) is now considering a Senate bid, and it appears contingent on incumbent Senator Lautenberg's decision to run or not.

“I have not ruled anything out, but it’s not my immediate focus as we work to elect a Democratic governor and Legislature, and right now New Jersey has a Democratic U.S. senator who deserves respect in Frank Lautenberg,” Oliver said in a statement to the Star-Ledger. “But should an opportunity arise, the lack of a woman in Congress from New Jersey is an embarrassment that must be remedied and taken into consideration.”

Texas: Following the example of the insider/outsider alliance of Senators Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul (R) in Kentucky, Senators Cruz and Cornyn (R) of Texas have moved toward a close relationship themselves. The article talks about a primary for Cornyn, who faces re-election in 2014, but where would such a challenge come from? There already may be competitive races or open seats for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Land Commissioner, and potentially other posts, so an expensive primary battle seems unlikely.

Governor

Massachusetts: Politico looks at the possibility former Governor Scott Brown (R) may run for Governor instead of the Senate. The biggest reason? Republicans just tend to do better running for state office than federal office in Massachusetts.

Iowa: Rep. Bruce Braley (D) could run for Governor against incumbent Terry Branstad (R).

House

IL-02: Former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.'s wife, Sandi Jackson, has resigned from her position as alderman citing "very painful family health matters." So with both Jacksons out of office and their pick for JJJ's seat now out of the running, the family has not had much luck lately.

CT-05: Former State Senator Andrew Roraback (R), the moderate 2012 congressional candidate is undecided on a "future run," although he sounds like a candidate with a conciliatory tone on gun issues in a state where the topic was recently pushed to the forefront.

SC-01: Former Governor and Rep. Mark Sanford is looking at a potential campaign headquarters as he continues to move toward a run. Also, former state Treasurer Tom Ravenel is considering a bid, Interestingly, if Ravenel joined the race three different Ron Paul supporters (along with Sanford and former State Senator John Kuhn) would be in the running. While he could self-fund, Ravenel is not very viable- he renounced his citizenship briefly in 2011 and left office due to a federal conviction for purchasing and possessing small amounts of cocaine.

Miscellaneous

Rockefeller: The Fix takes a look at the history and future of the Rockefeller dynasty in American politics.
Daniel Surman :: Political Roundup for January 14th, 2013
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Small typo
Scott Brown is a former senator, not a former governor.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Thanks
That's what I get for writing this at 3 AM.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
Bush 46 files for land commissioner
Some musings that he might file for governor if Perry retires.

27, R, PA-07.

MA-Sen
I posted a MA-Sen analysis. I hate to sell my diary here on the roundup but the title shown on the sidebar makes it look like it's just a general MA diary but it's actually a 2012 MA-Sen analysis (so I'm posting here to clarify). Read if you want to.

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
Down with tyranny, down with John Tierney!


DRA
I was wondering if anyone is planning to add the 2012 data to DRA.

28, Republican, PA-6

What states are you interested in?


[ Parent ]
Any of the heavily gerrymandered states
In part I want to see how effectively gerrymandered they were and if they could be tweaked.  I am thinking Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Michigan.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
elaborate
I assume you want to draw different districts. What do you hope to discover that'll be different than Obama-McCain numbers?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Well
This is the reason why we all rooted for the conservative Rs. Good that she was defeated. It's not like I like all the conservatives, it's that the caucus was hijacked by Ds in disguise because of the state being a 1-party state.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I guess Republicans
Should be glad she lost to Pompeo in the 2010 Primary.  I wonder if she'd be changing if she was a US Rep right now.  Kind of doubtful.  Crist 2.1d

By the way, you can't drive a mile on the Florida Turnpike between Orlando and Ocala without seeing Charlie's smiling face on a Morgan and Morgan billboard.


[ Parent ]
"It's about the people"
That's their slogan a about why they sue a lot of people and take a 1/3 cut of the recovery. I'm convinced.  

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
"For The People" (dot com)
I apologize for the correction but I'm treated to the Morgan and Morgan commercials with campaign-ad like frequency here in East Central Florida.

[ Parent ]
The trail lawyers want to make sure their guy is fully bought & paid for
just in case he actually gets elected to something again!

[ Parent ]
I wonder if she runs for Governor now
it's not like the Ds have much of a bench.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
I think Schodorf will run for governor against Brownback
and it's kinda making me nervous. She will consolidate the moderate and liberal votes. She could even win the independents.  

[ Parent ]
I don't think Brownback is all that vulnerable
There was a poll last year showing him unpopular, but there hasn't been anything since then to back it up. Also it should be noted the last Kansas Republican to lose a re-election bid as governor was a moderate, not a conservative like Brownback. That was Mike Hayden in 1990 who was also pro-choice and lost at least in part because pro-life Republican voters deserted him for pro-life Democrat Joan Finney. Brownback has a solid record of election in the state, and since the political winds should favor Republicans, I think Kansas should be lean R at least and probably likely R.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
I don't either
He seems to fit the state well enough. Granted, he's somewhat boring and generic, but so is Kansas. The state doesn't really look for flashy politicians.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Oliver's statement is nothing more than a knock on Booker
Well count Oliver in as another member of New Jersey's Democratic establishment that's pissed off at Booker. If she ran for the Senate (which is doubtful), she wouldn't be that formidable. Nevertheless, that doesn't mean she can't flirt with running to pique the all-star mayor. Just in 2 sentences, Oliver makes 3 subtle -- yet devastating -- indictments against Booker.

1. She's focusing on the gubernatorial and legislative races in '13; he isn't. This won't be a salient line of attack in a Democratic Senatorial Primary. However, it's a potent charge now, as Booker's refusal to run against Christie ruffles the feathers of pols who'd otherwise support him and donors who'd otherwise give to him.

2. She'll defer to Lautenberg; he hasn't.
Again, don't expect this in the primary, as it's targeted exclusively at insiders. However, assailing Booker for being presumptuous is a smart tactic now because it undermines his greatest asset: his brand. Booker the rescuer is compassionate, right? Not so if he commits the ultimate act of selfishness: disrespecting an elder statesmen.

3. I'm a woman; he's black.
There are no women in NJ's congressional delegation, while there is one African American (Donald Payne Jr.). Furthermore, women hold few positions of authority in state and local politics, while blacks hold many (almost every big city has had a black mayor or 2 in the last decade)

Ryan/Kasich 2016


funny thing is
Earlier this year she endorsed Donald Payne Jr over Nia Gill. Gill of course made the "I'm a woman vote for me" argument.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
If she runs she could make things a lot harder for Booker
Having a 2nd African American in the race takes away the Black vs White dynamic that could have help Booker.

[ Parent ]
ID-Gov/Sen; Labrador considering... Plus a rift with Simpson
http://voices.idahostatesman.c...

http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

I mention senate as well since this is all based on Otter running again and Risch is rumored to being interested in running for governor as well.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Simpson's 2012 campaign signs said "Idaho's Congressman"
Like there was only one. Maybe they still had a bunch leftover signs from the Walt Minnick era, but at this point it's kind of insulting to Labrador.

That's not why there's a rift, but it's evidence of Thompson not warming up to Labrador even after he beat Ward in the primary and Minnick in the general.  

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
Labrador doesn't play well with others
For the most part, Idaho's GOP is a lot like, say, Delaware Democrats. They generally like to sort things out in a friendly way between themselves and keep things humming along as they have been. Thus disagreements only very rarely play out in public battles. Remember that Idaho Republicans have had just one Governor (1994) and one Senate (1990) primary that was seriously contested since 1980. That's pretty remarkable for such a one-party state. Labrador is an upset-the-apple cart guy and that rankles just about everyone else in the IDGOP.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
Not the grassroots
He took it upon himself to chair the credentials committee at the ID GOP convention last June. A very challenging position, since no matter who you side with someone is going to be upset. But he successfully navigated the chairmanship, and people walked away generally happy.

He also introduced Otter at the dinner, and seemed really well-received, playing up the retiring Chair of the ID GOP (Norm Sedanko) as one of the few people who encouraged with him in the Minnick race. (He did, admittedly, knock the NRCC a few times, despite national Romney people being in the room).

He also gets along very well with Jim Risch and his son, who does legal work for the ID GOP.

If he runs for Senate, I think he'd have a very good shot, and is a quality statesman in my opinion.

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


[ Parent ]
I tend to think Labrador is under-rated.
I also find it interesting that, for all of Simpson's criticism, Labrador didn't lose his committee posts like Huelskamp and Amash did. I do think his non-vote in the house leadership race is a signal he's not planning to stay forever, but with Otter a retirement possibility, Risch thinking about a gov run and Crapo possibly having DUI fall-out, I think Labrador will have some opportunities to move up if he wants to.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
Wisconsin Supreme Court Races
http://www.jsonline.com/news/s...

We have another 'conservative' judge up.  

27, R, PA-07.


Will it even be competitive?


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I'm sure it could be
Prosser was.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
That was at the height


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
To go along with the Biden piece
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

I wonder what a Biden candidacy with strong Obama support would look like in the primary?


Probably depends if Obama can whip up the Black vote for Biden
Which I don't see happening, especially if Clinton runs. Minus Hillary he might have a shot at winning the black vote, but it won't be at the levels Obama had, and it won't be enough.

[ Parent ]
ALASKA-State House Dem representative switches to GOP
She's probably taking a.big gamble.
She gets a good committee assignment and other goodies, but her district is fairly Democratic. Republicans will have a 3-1 advantage, but will probably be a shaky one.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Her state House district is R+0.3
It can be won by a Republican in a neutral year.  

[ Parent ]
H, so it is. The raw vote totals fooled me. I didn't bother to check the PVI.


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
New York Congressional district swings
Looks like Obama gained in 15 congressional districts. Romney gained in the Manhattan proper in Nadler/Maloney's districts. The state as a whole moved left.

NY-05 Meeks, Gregory ?
NY-06 Meng, Grace 9.8
NY-07 Velazquez, Nydia 9.1
NY-08 Jeffries, Hakeem 7
NY-09 Clarke, Yvette 2.3
NY-11 Grimm, Michael 7.3
NY-13 Rangel, Charlie 3
NY-14 Crowley, Joe 9.4
NY-15 Serrano, Jose 3.7
NY-16 Engel, Eliot 1.2
NY-20 Tonko, Paul 2.4
NY-21 Owens, Bill 1.1
NY-24 Maffei, Dan 1.9
NY-25 Slaughter, Louise 0.4
NY-26 Higgins, Brian 1.6

27, R, PA-07.


Bob Kerrey takes new job in San Francisco
http://www.utsandiego.com/news...

His time in Nebraska was brief.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


west village
I've seen him back in west village a week after election. They own brownstone in the city; he never left.

[ Parent ]
Thanks for showing your true colors, Bob
What a sham his race was. He makes a triumphant return to his home state and even buys a house, intending to show that he was coming back to stay. Instead it was just a stop over between New York and California. Not that I'm surprised, but it shows just what a fraud he really was. Couldn't even stay here a year before he got out again.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Codey and Braley are in the same boat
They'd both be formidable, unlike Buono and Culver. Because of their stature, they'd give their respective races a competitive veneer. However, establishment support doesn't easily translate into voters' support (just ask Kerrey and Lingle). In order for them to stand a chance, Christie and Branstad's approval ratings need to take a dose dive. Christie's will inevitably fall; his post-Sandy popularity among Democrats, for instance, is fleeting. However, unless they commit a huge blunder, neither Republican will be vulnerable.

Codey and Braley know that, and that's why they won't run. They're flirting with bids now because they're dying for a promotion (both of them have grown tired in the legislature) and because they love the attention. Furthermore, they're both worried about their timetables. Codey is 66; four years from now, he'll be too old to run. If he jumps in, I suspect that dawned on him. At 55, Braley has time. However, he needs to stoke speculation to ensure that he's at the top of recruiting lists for future races.

Ryan/Kasich 2016


[ Parent ]
Codey Probably could have had it in 2009
Corzine only got around 65% against nobodies in the primary. I find it hard to see how he would have prevailed over Codey. And Christie only won narrowly in the general.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Codey isn't dying for any promotion
He might want to be Governor, but I don't think he'd take a Senate seat if handed to him.  He genuinely likes his job and his grandkids and coaching and living in NJ.  He wants no part of DC and really hasn't made it a secret.  

[ Parent ]
Codey has nothing to lose at this point.
He didnt want to run for Gov in the past because he didnt want to give up the power he had as Senate President. When Codey was deposed in 2010 by Sweeney he essentially became a backbencher in the chamber he used to run. At this point even running for Gov & losing would be a good career topper for him. And remember is is NJ and its still a Dem state so he might even have a shot at winning.

[ Parent ]
AR-GOV Hutchinson up 13
Suggested headline?
"McDaniel keeping it close despite scandal"

Dustin McDaniel appears to be weathering the worst of his mini-scandal, and has positioned himself for a comeback should it blow over in time for the Governor's race in 2014.


[ Parent ]
I personally rate this
Likely R.
Whether or not McDaniels is the D.
AR is ready for another R governor.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I love how they ask the gun question. It's very tilted.


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
how so?
it seemed very unbiased to me, other than mentioning the NRA which will bias people towards their opinion of the NRA rather than Hutchinson.  However, the NRA is likely popular in Arkansas so this helps Hutchinson.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Armed guards?
I hear he's been named to lead an NRA task force I think he's in the pocket of a special interest group and not interested in me. I hear armed volunteer guards and I'm thinking stormtroopers who aren't accountable to anyone shooting people while my child is in school. Why not just say police officer? Also the options are designed for me to say I have doubts. Why not say more likely to support, less likely, or about the same?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I was referring to the second part of LCL's answer.
I think he's overdoing it a bit on the first part. The question itself isn't that biased. What's tilted is the answering system. Some people might be more likely to support Hutchinson. Others might not be, or might be less likely to. Unfortunately, we don't know that. All we know is how much "doubt" about Hutchison this information causes people to have. There's an implication that the information might be negative and can't be positive, only negative or neutral.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
This was done by a third party, just FYi.


[ Parent ]
Thanks. That makes me feel better about it.


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
MN-gop
I have a glorious lack of good information about the inner workings of the Minnesota Republicans, and I was wondering if any of my fellow Minnesotans here on the other side of the isle had some insight on who has the inside track. I know that there will be precinct caucuses in a few weeks, and then that group of people select the chairman. Paul supporters seem to have a stranglehold on the caucus system, so I imagine that gives them a leg up with such a low turnout affair. But Paul supporters don't even have a preferred candidate as far as I can tell. The tea-types are lining up behind Downey for sure, but I am not sure who will oppose him, even though he likely has a low ceiling even with the generally conservative caucus goers. so if not Downey, who? Or will Downey even be seriously opposed?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Jenny Sanford Not Running for Congress
http://atr.rollcall.com/south-...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

California Governor
http://blog.timesunion.com/pol...

He said he knew of "two or three" people who were considering it, but declined to give names.

I have to wonder how much the candidates matter. In a Democratic leaning Presidential year the most popular California politician ran against a non-entity who spent no money and had no name recognition. She got 62.5% of the vote.

In a Republican leaning mid-term, a well-known CEO spent over $100 million on her gubernatorial race and her Democratic opponent got 56.8% of the vote, two party. Now Whitman 43.2% isn't a Republican ceiling. Two Republicans did beat that in 2010 and the GOP got 47.3% in the 2002 gubernatorial race.

Even optimistic Republicans doubt we can put up a candidate who'll beat Whitman's 43.2% and any name on the ballot likely won't drop below Mimi Walters 39.1%. Any candidate will probably get 40-42%. Will the difference matter down ticket?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Whitman's final percentage was due to her being toxic towards the end
For the last month, she essentially gave up and ran a lackluster campaign. During her peak she was polling between 45-52, so obviously a strong charismatic Republican can do well in an open seat against a decent Democrat.

Now against an incumbent it may not matter, but it shouldn't mean all hope must be gone.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Whitman
Whitman actually went up in the polls in the last week of the campaign. The final RCP average was Brown +6.6. He won by 11.4. The senate RCP average was Boxer +5.0. She won by 9.8. That's the exact same miss. It wasn't Whitman. It was the polling.

Whitman beat Maldonado, Dunn, Strickland, Walters, and Villines. While it's true that none of them spent $100 million, neither did their opponents. People lose and we pick apart their campaigns. I'm sure she could've done better but her total was about what the average Republican does statewide. If we're looking to 2014 I don't think we can say a Republican will do better because they won't run a campaign as poorly as she did.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
It is irrelevant what she did during the final week
Anyone who seriously followed the race knew it was over a month out. I'm talking about when she was competitive (before the housekeeper and before the Brown campaign was really engaged).

BTW, her outperforming downballot doesn't mean much, considering her ad buys swallowed every race whole, as anyone who watched even a little bit of tv only saw ads from the gubernatorial race with a sliver of senate action.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
40-42%
Didn't you say that about Emken as well?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
You confuse Emken and Romney
The 2006 Senate race was won by Feinstein 59.5%-35.1%, 62.9% two party. That was the second best a Democrat did for any office since 1986. So I was confident Emken's floor was 37%. She was polling 32-35% and some people were certain that the undecideds would break for Feinstein, who would get 65%+. I was steadfast that Emken would get at least 37% but had no upside for more than that.

She got 37.5%, but she would've gotten 38.5% if not for the increase in voters from online voting. She did as I expected.

I expected Romney, who was losing in polls 53%-39%, to get 42-43%. Mitt dropped below that and get 37.2%, 38.1% two party. You can certainly criticize me for being high on Romney, but then you'd also have to do the same to LA Times/USC, PPIC, Reason-Rupe, Field, and SurveyUSA.


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
AR-SEN/LA-SEN: Story about how the Landrieu
and Pryor name may help them more than someone like Kay Hagan.

On the second page, it notes that "insiders" think that both Womack and Cotton are reluctant to leave the House of Representatives, but in the end, Cotton is likely to answer the "call of duty."

http://www.rollcall.com/news/f...


interesting
if Cotton loses, his promising career may be over.
2014: Republican replaces Cotton in 4th district
2016: Boozman likely runs for re-election
2018: Gov. Hutchinson likely runs for second term
2022: Boozman likely retires, but Cotton is basically a Some Dude.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Good points
There's also not a Republican president to swoop in and make him a U.S. Attorney or undersecretary in the DoD. Maybe Hutchinson would throw him a line and give him a visible appointment (Supreme Court?), but the odds of that aren't great. It's definitely up or out for Cotton if he runs.

[ Parent ]
Adding to below
Mark Takano went 20 years between runs for office.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
and Rick Nolan went 32 years


[ Parent ]
Of course neither of those guys had presidential ambition
As is the general consensus with Cotton.

[ Parent ]
President or Bust?
I thought we were talking about how if Cotton lost in 2014 he'd never hold office again, not that he'd never be President. Of course Barack Obama didn't have a lot of electoral success before becoming President.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I meant his Presidential ambitions
I also forgot 2020, when a hypothetically re-elected Pryor may retire and would be very vulnerable if he didn't.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Only 1 Loss
For the President, not too bad.  Of course its a very small sample size.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Bush 41
George H.W. Bush served two House terms and lost a senate seat. He did have a Republican President appoint him to several positions but UN Ambassador, chairman of the Republican National Committee, and Director of the CIA aren't usually thought of as being preparation for the Presidency. When Bush ran for President in 1980, he hadn't held elected office in 9 years and didn't have the high profile Ronald Reagan did.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
GHWB
Probably the most unique path to the Presidency we'll ever see. I doubt anyone will bring that diversity of qualifications to the office again in our lifetime.

[ Parent ]
GOP facing what D's faced in reverse
From 1968 to 2008, D's had to nominate a southerner to win, that's what the electoral reality was.  Looking forward next 10-15 years, I see a similar issue for GOP in reverse, with only chance for presidency by running strong through Big 10 states ex IL off coarse (my alma mater, sad to say is as much leftist as my current state of residence), some combination of IA/MN/WI/MI/PA/OH are absolutely essential to victory, Bush 04 map is gone for good.

So in that regard, I just don't see Tom Cotton cutting it at presidential level, don't think he will play in the above-mentioned states in the areas that matter to statewide victory, and I think the GOP primary voters will eventually get it, in 2020 if not in 2016.  

41, R, CA-10


[ Parent ]
Shouldn't automatically disqualify him
Cotton being from an SEC state should not automatically disqualify him from running for president. The guy is a triple graduate from Harvard who had a distinguished career in the military, and from what I've heard, everyone who has heard him speak in person says that he's quite impressive, and him being from an SEC state does not take anything away from that bio.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
*double
Sorry, I meant to say that Cotton is a "double grad from Harvard" not a "triple grad from Harvard"

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
No
I feel as if with someone as talented an uniquely experienced as Cotton, it wouldn't be as much about where he's from as much as his experience, policy advocacy, and tone. Cotton doesn't come off as Mike Huckabee. He'd have no issues selling himself to NH and his military background would certainly help in Iowa, a state full of vets. Plus, his being from the South would help in SC.

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
Down with tyranny, down with John Tierney!


[ Parent ]
Cotton
Alan Keyes and Lyndon LaRouche had presidential ambitions too. I realize of course that Tom Cotton is hardly in that league, but what reason is there to believe that Cotton would ever stand a chance of being elected president? I could probably list fifty Republicans more likely to get elected nationwide.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Cotton needs to ensure he'll win first
Lets assume that a Generic Republican from the Northwest (Womack, Bledsoe etc.) is running and they win that area 65-35. Cotton wins the Little Rock area 55-45. He wins the rest of the state 70-30.

Cotton would only win by about four points. He needs to have a clear NW field or a splintered NW field to win.


[ Parent ]
Tom Cotton
He's 35 years old, has two Harvard degrees, is a veteran, and very popular in conservative circles. I think if he loses in 2014, he can run in 2032 and still be viable.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I believe jncca's point is...
...by 2032, there will be a new hotness for conservatives to get butterflies over and that new hotness wouldn't have been a "Washington insider" for twenty years. For example, in 1992, I'm sure there were a couple of freshmen Congresspeople in the Democratic Party who people thought of future President's. Twenty years later? They're just 10-term Congresspeople or out of Congress.

I'm sure like Takano, he could institutional support in 2032, but the conservative gestalt would be focused around some guy who's in law school or medical school right now.


[ Parent ]
Cotton is for the GOP
what Stephanie Herseth was for the Democrats circa 2004.

[ Parent ]
...but far more impressive


From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
Down with tyranny, down with John Tierney!


[ Parent ]
Far More?
I'd agree his resume is better, but hers was far from shabby.  I'd go with just more impressive imo.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
No, he isn't
Herseth was a center-left Democrat. Cotton is as far right as right can get. They are not even close to being partisan mirror images either from an ideological standpoint or in their dispositions.

Herseth's appeal for Democrats was her perceived cross-party appeal. Cotton has none.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Cotton
I'm not touting Cotton for President, only saying that losing an election in 2014 and not having another major position to run for doesn't doom him to never run again. Ted Strickland lost congressional elections 3 times before winning and then losing one 12 years later. Even after that he was still kicking.

He has the connections and while your average conservative may forget him, people in Republican circles and Tea Party leaders won't. Cotton's future viability is up to him. If he chooses another path, he can do so, but don't dismiss a comeback at some later point.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Jesse Jackson...
... was going to be the first black President.

(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Yes
It was probably a good thing Jesse Jackson was not the first black president.  That would have not been good for race relations unless you are the KKK.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
He could run for something in 18 to get back in
SoS and Land Comm. (and maybe LG too) will probably be open and basically his for the taking, and that would give him fresh standing for Governor or Senate in 2022.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
Assuming Martin and Thurston
run for reelection and win, both will absolutely be open in 2018 (term limits)

[ Parent ]
What I was thinking
Weird things can happen in the interim of course.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
John Kuhn
Well, now that the Packers' season is over he has the time to run.

Exodus from the GOP!
Tareq Salahi is becoming an Independent. http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

R, WV-1

He should have run for Congress vs Moran
The fool probably could have gotten the GOP nomination and it would have been a lot of fun watching him battle it our with Moran. In fact they could have made a reality TV show about it. Salahi should have pitched the idea to Bravo or TLC.

[ Parent ]
It would have been an entertaining guessing game for voters
Who's more corrupt? Out of touch? Narcissistic? Morally bankrupt? The show would given a far better glimpse of Washington than Scandal or 1600 Penn.

Although the infamous White House crasher would be expected to win every title, the liberal bully from VA's fighting 8th would snag each one with ease.  

Ryan/Kasich 2016


[ Parent ]
AZ-Gov
Ex-Tempe mayor Hugh Hallman exploring. http://www.bizjournals.com/pho...

R, WV-1

Josh Mandel was not the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pick for Senate
For all the flack the guy took
He did better than he probably had the right to. Only Rehberg came closer to a Democratic incumbent in 2012.

[ Parent ]
It doesn't make sense
Mandel was in pretty early. I think it was back in Feb/2011 when he started fundraising for it and everyone in the pary essentially crowned him as the nominee. At the time, I was hoping for Mary Taylor and she never gave a public response until the following year.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
NY Republican Cave to Bloomberg
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/20...

I'm not even sure what Republican Party in this state stands for anymore.  Republicans try to pass laws to take them off the books ( gay marriage) but it never helps them.


NY redistricting
Rs in the senate Rules committee also passed today to continue with the constitutional amendment for nonpartisan redistricting.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
it stands for holding the state Senate until 2022
Extract as much pork as you can in the process, the retire to Florida.


27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
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