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Political Roundup for January 16, 2013

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 07:21:52 AM EST


NJ-Senate: Congressman Bill Pascrell does not believe that Newark Mayor Corey Booker scares Senator Frank Lautenberg.  Booker has formed an exploratory committee for a Senate run, but says he will run regardless if Lautenberg retires or not.  Sounds like more of the New Jersey political establishment cannot stand Booker.

SC-1: Former Congressman and Governor Mark Sanford is going to make his bid to return to the House of Representatives official today.  

MA-Senate: Democratic Congressman Michael Capuano, a favorite of progressives, will not make a run in the special election to replace the newly appointed Secretary of State, Senator John Kerry.

Incumbents: Tea party groups have been focused on three Republican Senators: Lamar Alexander, Saxby Chambliss, and Lindsey Graham, but it appears they are focused on taking on incumbent Democrats instead.

Gun Control: House Democrats are anxious to see the scope of President Obama's gun control proposals.  Some fear they could endanger their reelection prospects.

WATN: Former Democratic candidate for everything, Kathy Boockvar, has been appointed General Counsel for Auditor General Eugene DePasquale.

Interior Secretary: Ken Salazar will be stepping down as Interior Secretary.
Ryan_in_SEPA :: Political Roundup for January 16, 2013
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Political Roundup for January 16, 2013 | 108 comments
Pedantic
Kerry is nominated for SecState, not SecDef.
Thanks


27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
tea party groups
refocusing on Democrats may in fact yield better results, although it is really difficult to unseat a sitting US Senator. Remember, in the last 4 cycles, Republicans were able to pick off exactly 1 incumbent Democrat total, Blanche Lincoln in 2010.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
Agree
Unseating an incumbent senator is difficult, but should be the focus of Republican groups.  

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Certainly
I have to admit that I looked on at some of the primaries, specifically senate primaries in 2010 and 2012 with a schadenfreude perspective. I believe that if the resources that had previously been used to primary incumbent Republican senators or establishment Republican candidates for senate is now directed solely on incumbent Democrats, it will likely yield better results for Republicans. Currently Republicans need a 6-seat swing to control the senate. This is not out of the question, but will be difficult, as it would take matching 2010's success exactly. It'll be a fun cycle, for sure.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Ron Johnson also unseated
an incumbent.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY
[ Parent ]
Crap, forgot about Feingold
I stand corrected.  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Who might replace Salazar?
Will Obama try to pick an incumbent public official, or a retired one from the mountain west? Former WY governor Dave Freudenthall comes to mind.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.
Westerner
I would guess it has to be a westerner based on precedent.  Interior is a western dominated department.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
FEMALE Westerner
Regardless of where his nominee comes from, I'm pretty dead sure that he'll pick a woman after all this brouhaha ...  

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker
[ Parent ]
Gale Norton : )
On a more serious note, Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin is a potential pick, as is Christine Gregoire.  

21, Democrat, CO-4  
[ Parent ]
Salazar's next move?
He entered the Senate relatively young, served 4 years and now 4 years in the Cabinet.  He's boxed out of most slots in CO.  Will he just retire from political life?
[ Parent ]
I bet he goes and makes a fortune, as I don't believe he entered politics rich
He may be an also-ran for president in 2016, which is a shame because his resume is perfectly suited to be president, and he will be 61 in 2016.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Agree
Salazar would probably make a decent president.  It appears he has done a decent job at Interior.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
He could go for CO-Gov
after Hickenlooper is termed out (assuming he wins re-election, which is a pretty safe bet at this point.) It was a bit of a surprise when Salazar ran for Senate in 2004; he was always thought of as someone who aspired to be Governor. This will give him a few years during which he can cash in, and he will be in his early 60s in 2018.  

21, Democrat, CO-4  
[ Parent ]
Governor
Governor seems to be a good fit for him as he is rather a down the middle kind of guy, the type who does poorly in Washington these days.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
My vote is for Schweitzer
Fill one last gap in his resume for 2 years before resigning to run for president in 2016.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Possibilities
Bingamann, Lincoln, Schweitzer, Fruedenthal

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Former WA Gov a possibility
Chris Gregoire. Former 2 term guv and former state AG. A westerner and a female. She should be on any short list.
[ Parent ]
Hah
Like Christine Gregoire knows anything about the kind of work done by the Department of the Interior.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
It's not usually something done by a west coast politician.
The focus of the department, by its very definition, is in the interior of the country, generally considered to be the area from the Mississippi to the western edge of the rockies.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Agree
I would just like to see an easterner appointed to the position for once just to see if they might be able to mediate some of these water disputes that often involve the Interior Department without any accusation of bias.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Bringing in an easterner
The problem with that is that people east of the Mississippi don't have experience seeing what these water disputes actually are like first hand. It is hard to get experience when its a thousand miles from where you grew up work and live. It'd be like appointing someone from Alaska or Montana to head up the hurricaine response plans at FEMA.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
That'll come as a surprise to a lot of Pacific NW residents
Any western guv would have grappled with issues that an interior sec. would have. WA in particular has a lot of Nat'l Parks and BLM land. Also the Columbia and Snake Rivers are heavily influenced by dams. Water issues/allocation are huge issues in Eastern WA. There actually have been several west coast interior secretaries since WWII.  Gregoire would be more qualified than either Salazar or Norton(not to pick on Colorado).  I'm not sure where she ends up but I think it's likely that Gregoire ends up in the cabinet.
[ Parent ]
Gregoire
Likely at top of the list.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
NRCC target list
Ron Barber (D-Ariz.)
John Barrow (D-Ga.)
Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.)
Jim Matheson (D-Utah)
Mike McIntyre (D-N.C.)
Collin Peterson (D-Minn.)
Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.).

Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

http://www.nationaljournal.com...

Five of them are in all five Romney R+7 districts. The Arizona reps are in R+3. The only more Romney districts are FL-18 and TX-23.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Republican districts
The National Journal articles says that "just four Republicans who represent left-leaning districts." I count seven (CA-31, CA-21, NJ-2, FL-27, NY-19, CO-6, NJ-3), although the New Jersey districts are estimated. If we average 2008 and 2012 there are five (CA-31, CA-21, NJ-2, NY-19, CO-6)

I count 17 Obama-Republican districts  (CA-31, CA-21, NJ-2, FL-27, NY-19, CO-6, NJ-3, NY-11, IA-3, CA-10, NY-2, WA-8, FL-13, VA-2, MN-3, NV-3, MN-2)

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Is this the first time the NRCC is seriously challenging Rahall or Peterson?
This is a good preliminary list. Barrow and McIntyre can't survive in a midterm. Had they opposed formidable candidates in '12, they'd be on K Street right now. (Lee Anderson was by far our worst candidate in a contested race last cycle). Barber is no Giffords; he'll be defeated in a rematch against McSally (anyone else think she is the female version of Cotton?). Kirkpatrick garnered a slim plurality that would have been Patton's had a Libertarian not been on the ballot. Are we finally on the cusp of an all Republican delegation in WV? I think so. I know many of you disagree, but I think Rahall's vote for Pelosi guarantees his defeat.

I'm dubious about our prospects in UT-4 and MN-7, however. Matheson and Peterson are currently ensconced in their new districts. Unless they retire (Peterson is a real possibility now that the farm bill is going nowhere) or self-destruct and ruin their brands, they're heading to the 114th Congress. Ruiz, Murphy, and Shea-Porter are certainly more vulnerable.

[ Parent ]
I'm sure Peterson is just on there to try to scare him into retirement
Matheson might be worth another shot. He's had two close elections in a row after a several years of comfortable ones, and was held under 49% last year.
[ Parent ]
Well ...
Couldn't one be tempted to attribute his performance last year to (a) new district and (b) Romney at the top of the ticket?

Much has been said and written about Miah Love as a candidate, so I won't delve into that.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
True
But the majority of his district still voted against him. Once there's blood in the water you don't let them swim away. I would give Matheson one more strong contest at a minimum.
[ Parent ]
Agree
I would go with a more establishment friendly candidate as it seems Matherson has some establishment appeal.  

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
You're rather emphatic
Under your logic, I'm not sure why Rahall's prior votes for Pelosi didn't "guarantee his defeat," especially with a viscerally unpopular Barack Obama on top of the ticket.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
I attribute his string of victories to the NRCC's absence
Spike Maynard and Rick Snuffer were woefully uninspiring. They were awkward on the air, stodgy on the stump, and impersonal in one-on-ones. Plus, they were atrocious fundraisers. The NRCC drew this conclusion fast and bolted. Although they shared the NRCC's concerns, political junkies following these races closely were incredulous. Why dump money into Walsh and Bartlett's heavily Democratic districts when there's an R plus 6 being ignored? In the eyes of many Republicans, that was a big blunder.

Because the NRCC deserted them, Maynard and Snuffer didn't have the resources to challenge Rahall's "I'm a West Virginia Democrat" message. They had the evidence on their side. From his support for pork to his vote for Obamacare, Rahall proved that he has little in common with the Mountain State's leading conservadems -- Manchin and Tomblin. Now with the NRCC's help, we can drive that message home. No vote better encapsulates Rahall's liberal record than his vote for Pelosi. He can defend supporting reckless spending by tying it to economic populism; that still works well in Appalachia. However, he can't defend voting for a woman who represents a culture and value system so foreign to WV.

Rahall hasn't really been put on the spotlight yet. Once he's forced to speak up, he's a goner

I know I'm bullish about our prospects here. I'll chalk it up partially to my excitement. We Republicans have waited too long to see the South finish its partisan realignment. That being said, I think an objective political commenter would make the same conjecture.

[ Parent ]
WV-03
First of all, WV-03 <3s pork. It's full of desolate poverty. Second, Snuffer wasn't nearly as bad as you made him out to be. John Boehner is also very fond of Snuffer and he was very well funded for the cost of running a campaign in WV-03 and he did a pretty good job considering how entrenched Rahall is. WV-03 is just not a very Republican district. Look at how it votes under the Presidential level. WV-03 is one of the last holdouts where voters are really willing to split tickets. Rahall ran 20 points ahead of Obama. That's pretty darn impressive.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Rahall was an anomaly
West Virginia is a holdout simply because Republicans don't makes its races a priority. If WV still leaned heavily Democratic in non-presidential elections, then the GOP wouldn't have fared so well in 2012. David McKinley wouldn't have beaten Thorn in a landslide; Bill Maloney wouldn't have come close to ousting Governor Tomblin; and Republican delegates wouldn't have been just four votes short of a majority. Manchin was an outlier. Everyone knows that next time he is on the ballot an R will accompany his name.

Snuffer has a compelling bio, but he isn't a formidable candidate. He raised a paltry 600 k. Maynard's war chest was double that. Even in WV's cheap media markets, Snuffer's numbers were inadequate.

Of all 3 WV districts, Obama did the worst in Rahall's in both '08 and '12. True, that's partially due to many racists' defections. Nevertheless, that's an alarming stat for Democrats. We can win this district with a top recruit. Given Rahall's vulnerability, we can find someone better than Snuffer

[ Parent ]
Umm...
"If WV still leaned heavily Democratic in non-presidential elections, then the GOP wouldn't have fared so well in 2012."

Wait, wasn't this year a presidential election?

"Bill Maloney wouldn't have come close to ousting Governor Tomblin"

He actually did better in an off-year electorate (2011). I do think a Republican will succeed Tomblin though.

" Everyone knows that next time he is on the ballot an R will accompany his name."

Interesting. Do you have any sources to back this up?

"True, that's partially due to many racists' defections. "

It is not just about racism. It is about the perceived war on coal by Obama's Environmental Protection Agency. To a large extent, that's why we saw such a big move in Eastern Kentucky and West Virginia.

"Rahall's vulnerability"

This is more of a statement on Rahall's campaign skills than anything else. The guy is extremely personally popular, but doesn't seem to understand a modern political campaign. If he continues to be ignorant of certain facts (like how to properly poll his district), then he will lose.  

[ Parent ]
Responses
1. Non-presidential elections refer to races for positions below the presidency, not midterm elections. In WV, Republicans cleaned up down ballot
2. Both were nail-biters
3. Republicans have approached him numerous times. So far, he's been resistant. However, given that Manchin is a professional pol who knows what's in store for Democrats in his state, a party switch is all but inevitable.
4. The War on Coal alienated them further, but racism was the trigger. Coal was a salient issue in '12, but it was barely discussed in '08.
5. Ike Skelton and John Spratt were popular too. Their party affiliation doomed them. The same can be true for Rahall in two years
[ Parent ]
w/r/t Manchin's party switch
I rebut that with Ernest Hollings.  He stayed a Dem to the very end of his career despite being in a state increasingly inhospitable to his party.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
I'm not expecting him to switch
To me he's kind of like Ben Nelson-somebody who was always talked about switching, but probably never will. If being a Democrat was going to be a problem for him, it probably would have happened already. West Virginia will only continue to become more Republican, yet he can probably still get re-elected as a Democrat in 2018 as long as he keeps voting a moderate enough line to distinguish himself from national Democrats. The only thing I could see pushing him into a party switch would be a Richard Shelby-like situation where the Republicans take solid control of the Senate and he decides he can be more effective as a Republican in the majority than a Democrat in the minority.

41, R, NE-1.
[ Parent ]
There are more Rs than you think
I've been looking at some old election returns and places like Fayette and Greenbrier aren't bad at all for us. It's really Boone, Logan, Lincoln, Mingo, McDowell, and a small chunk of Wyoming that give it its downballot yellow dog reputation. The key is getting more votes out of the Huntington suburbs.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Boockvar
Did DePasquale promise Boockvar the job to prevent her from running against him in 2012?

27, Republican, PA-6
Let's hope so
I just want her to go away, period. The woman lost her home county twice, in 2007 & 2011, and then ran for Congress and lost a third time. She had no business trying to represent Bucks County in Congress. I'm glad she's out of Southeast PA. Good riddance.

32, Libertarian leaning D, PA-7.
[ Parent ]
FL-GOV
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Say hello to Gov. Charlie Crist in 2014

[ Parent ]
Depends on whether Scott even survives a primary
My hunch is if Scott holds on for the nomination and Crist is the D nominee, it's a Likely-to-Safe D affair. If, however, it's Crist vs. a Bondi or more generic R, it could absolutely be a toss-up. At this point, I think a Scott-Bondi R primary could elicit similar results as Gibbons-Sandoval.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Or if he even runs
Scott will probably read the writing on the wall like Ritter and Bunning in 2010. I imagine he'll retire and Bondi, Atwater, and Putnam will face off in an epic battle for the nomination, that Bondi wins with outside support. If Scott does run, Putnam is the only one I can see risking his job in a primary. Bondi has too much to lose.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
Fascinatng diary on AZ in 2012
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

AZ going blue is a farce
I keep saying it. If Democrats want to focus on a state to flip, they should focus on Georgia.  

Zero Dark Thirty for Best Picture!
[ Parent ]
Georgia swung more to Romney than AZ did
Though if once you account for homestate advantage and the resources Obama invested in GA in 2008, I agree.

Gwinnett county in particular is interesting. Racially diverse, wealthy, Republican. Very new South.  Obama did better there than in 2008.  It was (already quite Republican) North Georgia that swung the hardest against him.

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

[ Parent ]
Gwinnett & Georgia
What's going on there is that Republicans are moving out of Gwinnett and moving further out into the exurban counties.
Same thing going on in Cobb and a few other suburban counties.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
[ Parent ]
White People
This exposes the ugly truth that the media hasn't noticed. White people are a real problem for Democrats. Non-whites went from 25% to 26% in Arizona. Yet Romney did better than McCain. That's because the White vote went from 59.6% McCain to 67.3% Romney. That was the second largest increase in the country and should be disturbing to democrats.

McCain didn't break 60% with White voters outside the south in 2008. So while people might not think the White vote can't go further away from Democrats I doubt anyone thought the White vote could get this high. You're going to have to increase the percentage of minorities dramatically for Democrats to win Arizona. Even in Presidential years.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
And Latino vote went from 56% to 74% Obama
AZ is quick approaching Southern levels of racially polarized voting, which I feel is bad for our Democracy in general.

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7
[ Parent ]
Agree
Racial polarization, regardless who it helps electorally, is a bad thing.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
It works both ways
Republicans certainly need to find a way to appeal to minorities but Democrats are increasingly perceived as being hostile to White voters. The more they tout the importance of minorities and tell people that Whites oppose President Obama due to racism the more Whites will turn away from their party. They can't even get more than 60% of the union vote.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
If non-whites increase
It doesn't matter in the presidential race as 2012 proved.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Maybe
Most of the states that are turning increasingly non-white aren't swing states. New York and California getting more minority don't matter much, while Georgia and Texas aren't becoming minority enough to matter. You win with the electoral college, not the popular vote.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
CO/NV/FL/NC


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Agreed
I wonder if some are just not fully taking 2008 and 2012 into consideration?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
There are concerns
Romney improved by more than he did nationwide and the other two showed smaller improvements. So an increase in minorities didn't impact the states that much. If the exit polls are accurate Colorado, North Carolina, and Florida increase primarily in Asian/others, not Blacks or Hispanics.

Certainly there's reason for concern in those states, but I think you can't conclude that an increase in minorities in 2016 automatically puts them out of reach.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Pres-2016: Jindal
This article is almost a week old, but I hadn't heard aboutt the proposal until today.

http://www.reuters.com/article...

Eliminating the state income tax would definitely help Jindal in a presidential run, at least in the primary contests.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

FL-18; Allen West not running
http://www.postonpolitics.com/...

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
Thank God
We'll beat Patrick Murphy rather easily with generic R and we'll hold the seat for the decade. Allen West doesn't need a House seat to do good things.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Rather easily?
I doubt that. He's a good target for you guys no doubt but he'll have a ton of money and incumbency.  

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Incumbency
You really won't know if that's a strength until he wins re-election.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Incumbency is always a strength
I can't think of a single case where it hasn't been.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Chris Dodd
nt

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Mark Dayton circa 2006
He stepped aside because he was doing badly in the polls, and some County Attorney named Amy Klobuchar stepped up in his place.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
No, not based on the point I was making
Chris Dodd with the same bio, but out of office for 2 years would have fared worse than Chris Dodd the incumbent senator.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Chris Dodd
as a non-incumbent would not have as tangled up with Countrywide. Had Dodd not sought re-election in 2004 and run again in 2010 he would have been stronger.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
right, but had he retired in 2010
and run for the open seat in 2012, not so much.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Mike Haridopolos
He doesn't live here, but he represented much of it in the State Senate and he still has $1.4 million in his federal account.  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  
[ Parent ]
I prefer state Rep. Pat Rooney
He is the brother of Rep. Tom Rooney.  
[ Parent ]
Rather easily.
An R+3 district (that was R+4 in 2012) in Florida with a decently sized minority population that won't show up as much in a midterm? Fairly easily. Democrats outside of the Deep South have real troubles holding R+3 seats.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Correction: the rural south and Appalachia
This district is neither southern nor Appalachian.  

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
From the outset, it looked like Murphy would be too liberal to hold this district
Our friends at DKE were his biggest cheerleaders during the election. Now in Congress, their fealty to him still persists. Once his recount was over, he thanked them for their support during a stop to their DC headquarters, an unusually generous -- but somewhat risky -- gesture for a vulnerable freshman.

I suspect that Murphy never seriously changed his campaign strategy once he moved to FL-18 from the more liberal FL-22. That should have been a fatal blunder in '12.  It wasn't, given that West's nastiness and petulance overshadowed the candidates' ideological differences. That won't be the case next cycle, so Murphy needs to be vigilant. Cozying up to folks at DKE is a sign that he so far hasn't been.

[ Parent ]
Perhaps "easily" means something different to RRR?
To me, a victory isn't "easy" unless it's 20 points or more. I would be shocked if Murphy lost by 20 points.

That said, I would be very disappointed and surprised if the Republican lost this seat in 2014.  

Zero Dark Thirty for Best Picture!

[ Parent ]
Easy meaning...
if we have a competent candidate who runs a decent (but by no means perfect campaign), we'll defeat Patrick Murphy. Haridopolos would be ideal since he'd already have quite the war chest.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Menendez Hooker Story
http://www.northjersey.com/new...

US ordered Delay Until After Election

Your headline is (purposefully?) deceiving
This article is about the undocumented intern story, not the prostitution scandal...

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
McCrory is plummeting
Part 1/48
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

He has the same numbers Perdue started with
Doesn't this mean he'll be surging every month from now until 2016?
[ Parent ]
If he were a Democrat, sure ...
be he isn't, so ... :P

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker
[ Parent ]
Finally John BOHNER gets it right on Guns
Reading John Boehner's statement that will wait for for Senate to move first on guns is an excellent move, let Harry Reid try to convince red state Democratic Senators to ban assault weapons, ain't going to happen. Although I do worry that will lose couple of our own on these votes,  thinking of Kirk and Collins. This way House Republicans from marginal districts stay out of having to take a tough vote.

The idea of having senate go first should be an excellent tactic for House Republicans  for next two years, on any nonrevenue related issues like immigration.

41, R, CA-10

Show the Speaker the respect he deserves
Like him or not, making fun of his name is, at best, childish.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Best of mediocre is......
Mediocre.  Sorry, that is state of modern republican party, bereft of anybody who we can call a leader who fits the bill.

41, R, CA-10
[ Parent ]
House Republicans
House Republicans should indeed resort to the tactics of "Hey, Senate, you go first", while passing nice anti-regulatory bills, tax cut bill, whatever. Couple that with a dearly needed PR overhaul and they should be in a better shape for 2014 then these first weeks of 2013 suggest.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker
[ Parent ]
Huh?
If the GOP actually likes the proposal (ending regulations, cutting taxes etc.) why wouldn't they they go first and pass them in the House? If Reid doesn't bring it to the floor, they can say "We're the party of small government and the Senate is not."
[ Parent ]
I think that's what he means
Pass nice-sounding partisan legislation that has no chance of going anywhere in the Senate, and let the Senate go first on anything actually important or controversial (immigration, etc.).

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"
[ Parent ]
Yup
Thanks for the clarification :)

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker
[ Parent ]
FOX hired Kucinich
Genius...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Spotted in Evanston, IL
There was another sticker on the top of the bumper that said "No More Obama." Seeing this car in Evanston is like seeing it in Montclair, NJ, Portland, or San Francisco. Strange.

Photobucket

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

Thinking the same thing
Granted, I did plaster the back of my vehicle with Obama car magnets when I was driving through rural Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi week before last. :)

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
that reminds me
Several months ago, someone posted here that when they see a lot of bumper stickers on the back of the car that they know without reading them that it's driven by a liberal Democrat.

This car seems to be a counter example.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Bumper stickers
Cars with that many stickers make attractive tank targets.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
NRA ad
I have not seen anyone comment on the NRA ad.  I am kind of surprised.

27, Republican, PA-6
Was A Web Ad
I have no problem with it- points out hypocrisy that exists with Obama and other elites. Good for them.

SC1-Charleston
[ Parent ]
honestly
I wasn't offended either.  Democrats should be attacking the NRA's idea based on its cost, though.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Agree
With school and municipal budgets being tight, I think anyone opposed to it can make a very reasonable cost argument.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
it's not even just Obama or schools
The new Cuomo 7 round cap is basically meant to make a sizable number of newly manufactured guns illegal.

I'm not sure if a standard 10-20 round magazine is legal if you happen to only keep 7 rounds in it.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Greg Abbott wants to make Texas redder
http://www.politico.com/story/...

We need Republicans in Upstate New York, not Texas.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Abbott's Ad
I honestly doubt it would make that much of a difference in NY's electorate. That said, if this means the difference between Texas gaining 3 or 4 seats in 2020 and gaining 4 or 5 seats in 2020, I certainly wouldn't complain.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
On the presidential level
there would be almost no impact. With that said, if a large number of conservatives were to move from Upstate New York, it would be a nightmare for Dean Skelos.  

21, Democrat, CO-4  
[ Parent ]
eh I think he realizes the jig is up in 2020 anyway
NT.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
But if that were to suddenly happen
then the jig would be up in 2014.  

21, Democrat, CO-4  
[ Parent ]
Not really targeted at NY of course
More of a talking point for him. And it helps it lands on the screens of national media. Clever playfor media overage where he gets to shape the message.

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04
[ Parent ]
NYC-Mayor: Quinn up 24, 45 in primary, general
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/inst...

For the time being, nothing to see here.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

Minnesota Legislature Special Elections
In 14A only 3 candidates filed for the St. Cloud-based seat vacated by Republican Steve Gottwalt. This district is very marginal, and is expected to be highly competitive, although I don't think any of the candidates are terribly impressive, although I suspect McKee will be lucky to clear 10% against Joanne Dorsher (D) and Tama Theis (R). Dorsher is probably a nominal favorite, considering she has held elected office before on the St. Cloud school board, and ran against Gottwalt before. Theis is a tea-party type that in true fashion upset the more experienced and establishment candidate Jon Severson, a St. Cloud city councilman.

http://www.minnpost.com/politi...

In 19A, which in spite of the first paragraph of the linked story, is in the Mankato area, not the Rochester area, there are 4 DFLers running, and the nominee will be decided at a convention on Saturday. My money is on St. Peter mayor Tim Strand. The Republican candidate is the quixotic Al Quist, who has had a strange political career including a terribly botched primary against the most popular governor in recent Minnesota history, and getting beaten by Tim Walz in MN-1 by 15 poinds. This is a fairly DFL district, although there is a chance that this goes really wacky, as it is a special election.

http://www.minnpost.com/politi...

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Political Roundup for January 16, 2013 | 108 comments
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Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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