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Israeli Election Open Thread

by: shamlet

Tue Jan 22, 2013 at 14:00:00 PM EST


We don't have enough expertise to do anything special for the Israeli elections today, but here's an open thread for those of you watching the results.
shamlet :: Israeli Election Open Thread
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Just to be clear
I believe the polling has shown a constant Likud/Conservative government easily winning again, and its just a matter of margins, right?

And who will be the opposition leader?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


Yes and probably Yechimovich (Labour)


[ Parent ]
Leaked unconfirmed exit polls
Seem to show that the centrist Lapid has gained quite a few seats from Likud and the left hasn't grown, Right shrank.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Lapid should be reffered to as a left winger I believe


[ Parent ]
I doubt he's too left on security issues


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Security issues are nonesence in my opinion
Olmert was far to the right of Netanyahu on security issues but I'm talking about foreign policy.

[ Parent ]
Also
his voters profile is left, without him they would have voted to the left, most of them.

[ Parent ]
Lapid
Is Lapid part of the coalition currently?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
New face


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
TV news anchor starting a new party
I do not understand why he would be center-left on foreign affairs, as his position is only marginally leftward of Netanyahu, and he's also said he planned to join Netanyahu's coalition after the election.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Exit polls from networks coming in 25 minutes
Each network has a separate one.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Exit polls
Likud 31, Lapid 18-19, Labour 17-18, JH 11-12, Shas 11-13, UTJ 6, Hatnua 7, Meretz 7.

61-62 for the right


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
After a disastrous campaign by Likud
that hurt both Likud and JH.

[ Parent ]
Right itself
Without center have a majority without anyone from the center.
Netanyahu will be PM with these numbers. Lapid will be in the coalition without Livni and Labor with a lot of power.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
BTW nice results for Gimel, B"H


[ Parent ]
I've said all along
that Bennet mustn't enter a coalition without both Shas and Aguda. Any other behaviour and what we've seen in 2005 (the girush) would return.

[ Parent ]
Results
Follow official results here: http://votes-19.gov.il/nationa...
very very little counted as of now.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Votes are hand-counted
Only 102,812 counted so far.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Only about 300,000 counted


26, Male, R, NY-10

450,000 now


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
How are the results looking compared to the exit polling?


I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Bummer
I had hoped for a much stronger Likud showing ...  

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

Adjusted channel 2 exit poll
Has Likud at 33, UTJ up to 7. Lapid 18 and Labor 16. Shss 12, JH 11 (below polls).
Right vs. Left and center widened from 61-59 to 63-57

26, Male, R, NY-10

I wish Google Elections had Israel on there...
A map would be fantastic.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


The only thing I know is
Jerusalem is a conservative stronghold an Tel aviv is a progressive stronghold...but I dont know if it's only a religious thing ( social issues )...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
yeah, I know that much
Also my guess is areas like Haifa are more liberal.  The North is more Russian so probably more favorable to Yisrael Beiteinu (which I guess is part of Likud now).  But in terms of the rest, I really don't know.  Are the kibbutzim liberal because of their socialist origins, or conservative because they are rural?  How about smaller cities like Ashdod, Eilat, Ariel, and Netanya? I guess others can answer these questions but if anyone can point me to a map, even if it's in Hebrew (I at least know the alef bet so I can figure out most of the city names) that would be great.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Arab votes come in late
But they are either for the Arab parties, or tend to be bought by local figures. Sharon had a personal Bedouin vote in the Negav.

Prior to the 1990s they voted for Labour, but the rise of Arab parties has largely removed them from the process. The Right-Left splits are meaningless. Only Hadash could even vaguely be considered for government formation and only then for outside support.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
The right
Could add a seat or 2 when the votes of the soldiers are counted later this week.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Kibbutzim are left
All the cities  that you mentioned are rightist.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Even Haifa?
Surprised by that.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Not Haifa
Iron rule number 1: The more secular ashkenazi, the more left, the more sfardi, the more right, any religious are hard right.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
okay, that's somewhat helpful
although I don't really know the sfardi/ashkenazi breakdown within Israel.

Let me know if you find a results map anywhere; I'd be really interested.  

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Russians are an exception
Within Ashkenazi. They're secular but right.
Most of the south is heavy Sfardi. Central,  majority Ashkenazi.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Likud got a plurality in Haifa
UTJ won a plurality in Jerusalem. Likud won Ashdod, Eilat.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Moshe or Thomas
How do the parties rank, from left to right, on domestic policy.  I know about their foreign policy, but is that completely correlated with economic? Or are there some minor parties that are more mavericky?

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


A big mess
Hard to explain.
Many parties are socialism for me, austerity for you...  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
so do the parties mainly exist for foreign policy
the way American ones do just for economic? Like how Ron Paul and John McCain are in the same party here because foreign policy isn't as determinative as domestic? Or is Meretz socialist along with being very dovish?

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Not really
A few do.
Like Meretz and JH.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
if anyone wants a good results page
http://votes-19.gov.il/nationa...

you can break it down by city here.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


oops
Moshe posted this page.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
With 86% of precincts reporting
It's 60 for the right, 60 for center, left and Arabs.
IDF votes counted later this week should help the right.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

61-59 for the right


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
So Netanyahu gets to keep his job, but Lapid gets to play a big role in the government?
I assume Netanyahu doesn't want a straight Right-Left Government, as a 2-seat margin is shaky even discounting Israel's unusually fluid politics.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Most likely


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
one more question
who's further left, Yesh Atid or Ha'Tnua?

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


Livni
Is hard left. Lapid is closer to the center.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
but Yachminovich (sp?) is further left than Livni, right?


Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Yachimovich is more socialist
Left on foreign affairs, but not as pronounced.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Correct me if I'm wrong
but isnt the big issue for Yesh Atid and Lapid is ending the special treatment for the ultra-Orthodox. A lot of it is about ending their exemption from the draft and the special subsidies & welfare they get. They also are very pro-small business and favor more local control of schools. A lot of their domestic agenda overlaps with Netanyahu's. I know Bibi wanted to end the ultra-Orthodox's draft exemptions and probably would like to end the special welfare they get. So there can be some overlap and a desire to bring them into government coalition to blunt the power of the religious party and prevent who are usually happy to sell their support for what we in the US would call pork.

[ Parent ]
60-60 again
98.5% of precincts reporting.
Arabs have one seat more than last time.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

99.5% reporting
No change.
IDF votes still outstanding.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Arabs
Will most likely lose their 12th seat when the votes are counted to the Jewish Home.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
still a 61 seat majority?
Or did that change?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

60-60 now
Likely to become 61-59

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
What is left to count?
Also, I must add that it is greatly appreciated that you and Thomas have been keeping us up to date on this stuff.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Army and diplomats


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Really 60-52-8
The Left only has 60 if you count your local neighborhood branches of the Muslim Brotherhood(UAL-TAL) and the Arab Socialist Baath Party(Balad).

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
And Lapid is really not left
He's not a peacenik and some of his economic & education agenda overlaps with Bibi's. Lapid is really more about ending special treatment for Haredim. If anything you can describe him as a pragmatic secular center/center right party.

[ Parent ]
And Lapid isn't left
Neither is Mofaz.
The left has 12 (will be 11) of Arabs, 6 of Livni and 15 of Labor.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
The big losers here could be Israel's ultra-Orthodox
Lapid's main issue was ending the special treatment and favors that Shas & UTJ was able to carve out for the ultra-Orthodox when they held sway over the parliment. But now there is an opening for a center/right coalition governmment that could exclude the 2 religious parties and have the votes to end their exemption from military service, housing subsities and generous child allowances and yeshiva stipends. A coalition between Lukid, Lapid and JH would have at least 62 seats. So a governement can be formed without the Haradim!
Two quick reads on this:
http://www.thedailybease.com/a...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/...


It ain't happening
It never happened, it won't happen.

And no government can afford to leave the Ultra-Orthodox's 18 seats out of the government.

26, Male, R, NY-10


[ Parent ]
Likud, Lapid, Bennett and Kadima
Are only 63 seats. Too narrow for a majority. He'll need the Ultra-Orthodox.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
It might end up 64 or 65 after all the votes are in
throw in Livni and your at 70. Although I think Shas will join the government as a way to try and reign in the reforms that are coming. But the rise of Lapid seems to be a secular reaction to power of the Haredim parties and their ability to avoid military service and live off of the gov't dole.

[ Parent ]
Netanyahu can't afford
2 sizable Leftist parties in a coalition.
Why should he weaken his power? After all, he is rightist. He'll make do with 1.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
This is true I'm afraid
If I had to guess I'd put my money on a Likud+Lapid+Labour government which amounts to 65 seats, then they could invite others such as Livny, JH or even ulrtra orthodox on their own terms. I know Yechimovich said otherwise but she no longer calls the shots there, not after her failure.

[ Parent ]
IMO
If Netanyahu is smart, he lets Lapid dry up in opposition like he did to Kadima last time and takes in Livni and gives her the foreign portfolio and he's set with the current coalition.

Netanyahu can't afford to have such a strong party that isn't a natural partner be able to squeeze him and topple him at every turn.

26, Male, R, NY-10


Lapid is a one trick pony IMHO
He did as well as he did due to the pent-up resentment to the special treatment the Haredim get. Netanyahu can neutralize him by bringing him into govt and co-opting his agenda. End the haredi exemptions from the army and take away their special treatment that allows them not to work and the reason for Lapid support disappears. This is one of the biggest domestic issues facing Israel and Netanyahu has a chance to make real change here. I think he goes for it even with a smaller coalition.  

[ Parent ]
Israeli Arabs Too
30 Seats right now basically represent special interest groups who do not perform any national service, and are too a large extent pork barrel presences in the Knesset. This is not to say Arabs should be drafted into the IDF per se, but some sort of national service should be looked at for anyone. Not having Israeli Arabs perform any is leading to them falling completely out of the country, whereas the Arabs who do perform service, the Druze, tend to be more fully integrated politically and to vote for Zionist parties.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Something tells me members of the Knesset..
aren't that interested in pork :)

Mainstream Dem.  

[ Parent ]
Well, he proved he ain't


[ Parent ]
When are they going to post the IDF votes?


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Probably tomorrow morning


[ Parent ]
Counting started
Results later

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
There is still a chance for Kadima
To fall below the threshold and it would cause the right majority to go up to 62-58 if the Arabs also lose a seat.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
About 240,000 votes


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Coalition update
Yair Lapid just announced: "I won't join a leftist bloc to block Netanyahu", "I won't join a bloc with Zoabi".
Netanyahu reelected.

26, Male, R, NY-10

What I
don't understand is how Shas, which is fiscally liberal and foreign policy hawks, would join with Bibi.  Anyone know?

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

They're pragmatic and Bibi is.


[ Parent ]
What
do you mean by pragmatic?  That's a very general word.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
They're not ideologues
Bibi really wasn't conservative in his fiscal policy as PM (unlike his term as the minister of the treasury when Shas wasn't in the government) and both really aren't extremists in foreign policy, Bibi supported the disengagement plan in 2005 and led a centre government and Shas leaders won't deal with foreign policy in a Likud government and leave it to others. In the end it's their interests, both of them to seat together

[ Parent ]
You are thinking in ideological terms which dont apply here
Shas exists to get as much as possible from the government for the Sephardic Haredim who the party represents and who vote for Shas in mass. In the past they've been the deciding block between left and right and used that position to extract as much as they could from the Israeli govt (like a permanent Pedro Espanda). They'd join with anyone who would get them more. Being in opposition doesnt allow them (and the people they represent) to get anything. So they'd join the govt to prevent Lipid from taking away the special favors they get for their group. Leaving them out of govt and forming an all secular govt would be a seachange and a really big deal.

[ Parent ]
Much better results map
61-59 for the right
Over the rest. Jewish Home apparently picked up a seat that Arabs lost.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

If someone wants
results of a certain city let me know. I do hope that 12th seat would be an Arab seat and Yakov Asher's.

[ Parent ]
You can see all the results in the maps that I posted
And on Excel from the official numbers.

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
But those are in Hewrew, are they not?


[ Parent ]
The diary is updated with some thoughts


The results are official
The U.S. can learn from Israel how fast it can take to officially certify election results.

26, Male, R, NY-10

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