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Political Roundup for January 23, 2013

by: BostonPatriot

Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 08:00:00 AM EST


Senate

MN-Sen: Al Franken isn't nearly as popular as Amy Klobuchar, but he looks OK for re-election, sitting at 50% against a host of Republicans. This looks like a third-tier target, but then again, this seat is famous for producing entertaining elections.

NJ-Sen: Sen. Frank Lautenberg continues to gently attack Cory Booker, but the octogenarian incumbent has yet to say whether he'll run for another term. It's sounding more like Lautenberg is softening up Booker for his preferred successor. (Frank Pallone?)

NM-Sen: Sen. Tom Udall (D) is being vetted for Interior Secretary, a welcome development for Republicans who would love to see Gov. Susana Martinez appoint a replacement. Would Obama really cost his party a Senate seat for a middling Cabinet gig, though? Unlikely.

WV-Sen: Shelley Moore Capito (R) is crushing all comers in a poll from newcomer Harper (R). She leads longtime Rep. Nick Rahall, previously seen as the likely Democratic nominee, 50-32 and lesser Dems by wider margins. That ought to raise questions about whether Rahall even runs, although he does lead the Democratic primary. Capito crushes in the GOP primary and has better overall favorables than Joe Manchin.

Hagel: A neocon group called Americans for a Strong Defense is running anti-Hagel ads in Louisiana, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, and North Carolina. If you read RRH, you already know what those states have in common (Colorado is the interesting one).

House

CA-17: The San Jose-based 17th doesn't get much attention here, but Obama staffer Ro Khanna seems interested in challenging longtime Rep. Mike Honda after watching Eric Swalwell dispose of Pete Stark in 2012.

MO-08: Jo Ann Emerson made her resignation official, so we can circle February 9 as the date local Republicans will meet to choose her successor. (That person will run in a special election on June 4, but victory is assured in this deep red seat.) The four leading candidates are Emerson crony Lloyd Smith, LG and former Emerson crony Peter Kinder, House Speaker Pro Tem Jason Smith, and St. Rep. Todd Richardson, although 9 others are running.

SC-01: And the first ad of this special belongs to....Teddy Turner, the teacher and son of the media omnimogul. Unlike his dad, Teddy calls himself a conservative Republican in the bio spot. He's one of several candidates likely jockeying for a runoff spot behind Mark Sanford.

Governor

ME-Gov: Paul LePage is unpopular (39/55), can't crack 37%....and still leads every 3-way matchup PPP tests, because this is Maine, where only two governors have won 50% since 1970 and many don't get to 40%. Eliot Cutler (I) splits the anti-LePage vote with Dems, who would be in good shape if Cutler didn't run.

PA-Gov: Gov. Tom Corbett is vulnerable, but Democrats can't seem to draw an A-lister into the race. The Great Mentioner lists new AG Kathleen Kane, Treasurer Rob McCord, ex-Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, businessman Tom Wolf, Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski, and new MontCo Commission Chair Josh Shapiro.

Miscellaneous

VA-Redistricting: Lost amid the shuffle of the inauguration was the big news out of Richmond: the GOP-held Senate undid a Democratic gerrymander of their chamber and passed a Republican map while one Democratic member was out of town. (Had he been present, Bill Bolling would have been forced to break a tie.) Gov. Bob McDonnell is balking at the aggressive remap, but if he signs, it's great news for 2015 and 2019.

Cabinet: U.S. Trade Rep. Ron Kirk will depart in February. The two leading candidates to replace Kirk, who is black, are white men (Michael Punke and Mike Froman), so we're likely to see more clamoring from the identity-politickers. There's a chance Obama could dip into the House--Rob Portman made the leap to this gig during the later Bush years.

Biden: Joe Biden continues to enjoy himself by speculating over a 2016 bid.
BostonPatriot :: Political Roundup for January 23, 2013
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Political Roundup for January 23, 2013 | 87 comments
NJ
Christie approval at 74/21 and crushing all comers.
Booker crushing Lautenberg.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/inst...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Wish there were additional crosstabs on Booker-Lautenberg
I wonder how much of a racial gap there is on that one.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
51-30
In a Dem Primary a year and a half out could still go either way, since no counties are eager to line up for Booker yet, and there have still only been muted attacks on his tenure.  You would think he'd have more friends, but he doesn't.
[ Parent ]
Christie
Christie is more popular than God in New Jersey.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Hope he runs in 3 years
Time will tell if he gets Hunstman-ed or Crist-ed

He's more charismatic than either but I'm afraid some will take a hard line over the Sandy stuff in the primary

Libertarian-R New MA-5. Christie-Martinez 2016.

[ Parent ]
Christie
I fully expect the red meat to start being served again this December.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
MO 8
Nixon has scheduled the special election for June 4 due to federal laws regarding ballots to overseas voters. http://governor.mo.gov/newsroo...

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.
MN-Sen, MN-Gov
Looks like Hennepin County Sheriff Rich Stanek won't be running. He is lobbying everyone from Joe Biden to Mark Dayton for more strict gun laws. He wouldn't survive a GOP primary after that.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
Here is a link
http://kstp.com/news/stories/S...

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
VA Senate Map
Most of it is pretty good - but I've come to one sore spot in my analysis. Loudon is a pure dummymander. Dick Black is now in a R+1 that's absorbing a lot of liberal influx. Dick Black is not the kind of Republican that can be secure in a R+1. Herring is in a D+2 that's trending left. I think we probably lose both of those.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
No One likes Dick Black
And I mean no one. He is not just extreme, and the senate version of Bob Marshall, but also personally abrasive. That seat is designed to get rid of him in 2015(when presumably the Republicans will pick up 3-5 seats else-ware) and then to be safe for any normal Loudon Republican who won't embarrass the party in 2019, safely in time for the next round of redistricting.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Given the way Sterling is going
I doubt we get that back in 2019.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Sterling
What do you expect the PVI of that seat to be in 2019?

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
Not quite (VA St Sen)
Sterling is not in Dick Black's district 13, it's in District 33. District 33 is in Democrat Mark Herring's seat and Herring's running for AG in 2013. It'll be open if he wins. Black should be ok in his new R+1 seat but he surely could lose.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
There will be a special for 33
and I think it would be under the old lines regardless. I use a broad definition of Sterling - that whole SE Loudon area is going down the tubes for us, fast. It's this decade's Dale City/Woodbridge.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
R+1 is Safe R in Virginia for the Legislature in that area
Provided it has a normal Center-Right Republican. They can even be something of a social conservative(Barbara Comstock). What they cannot do is run around saying nutty things, voting against McDonnell Judicial appointments because the candidate in question happens to be gay and citing that as the sole and only reason(in fairness the opponents noted the candidate in question had been in the US Army pre-DADT repal and hence had technically violated the code of military conduct) to oppose their nomination.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
+1
NT

R, MA-3
[ Parent ]
It is now
it may not be in 2019.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
I completely agree
about Dick Black.  He is a very nasty person, and nobody strong stepped up to challenge him in the primary last cycle when he moved into this district.  He will probably lose the general if he runs, but hopefully he will just retire.  He is almost 70 years old right?

Also, George "Lincoln" Barker will likely lose his new seat, but it should be very safe for any other dem.  We aren't going to gain as much as we think here.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
Barker
Also, George "Lincoln" Barker will likely lose his new seat, but it should be very safe for any other dem.

District 39 is ~D+1 (depending on how it trended in 2012). That's a seat we surely can hold.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Lisa Madigan is now seriously thinking about governor
http://www.suntimes.com/news/s...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
Debbie Re-elected!
http://atr.rollcall.com/dnc-re...

Yes!

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

She raised good money
And Democrats across the board did well overall from the President on down. I have no particular affinity or distaste for the Congresswoman, but objectively the DNC has  very good cycle under her.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
The RNC had a great cycle with Michael Steele
We didn't re-elect him. I'm sure she did a good job in a number of areas but she's an embarrassment in interviews and that has to be good for us.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Follow the money.
KOrnheiser has a great line he often quotes from Don Ohlmeyer, I believe, which is:

The answer to every question is always money.

It could be Ebersol, now that I think about it.

An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.

[ Parent ]
Obama's good luck with the Oct. Jobs Report
The last BLS jobs report before the 2012 election (for Oct.) indicated that although the UI rate had gone up .1 to 7.9%, the economy had created 171,000 jobs.  This was generally hailed by the MSM as a good report, as job creation above the 150,000 level generally leads to lower unemployment. This fit in with the Obama campaign theme that he inherited a bad economy but now things were on the upswing.  Well the BLS did its usual two months of revisions and lo and behold the economy only created 137,000 jobs in Oct., 34,000 less than originally reported. Most economists would agree that job creation in the 125,000 to 150,000 range means that the economy is treading water; this means job creation is only adequate to meet the demand from new entrants into the labor force. Therefore, 137,000 new jobs created would not be sufficient to drive down unemployment. I'm not suggesting anything nefarious here, BLS normally revises this number, and Obama would still likely have won if the real jobs creation number was known.  However, a "lukewarm" jobs report right before the election would have damaged the jobs upswing campaign theme, and might have reduced Obama's victory margin. So Obama got a lucky break.  

In an article in the Jan. 20 NY Times, pertaining to the Obama economic record, left leaning economist Joseph Stiglitz surprisingly states that "...the recession and the lingering effects of the way it was handled have made matters much, much worse." He then goes on to criticize the "apparent"  drop in the UI rate to the current 7.8%, stating it "...appears better partly because so many people have dropped out of the labor force, or never entered it, or accepted part time jobs because there was no full-time job for them."  So Obama is a kind of "Wizard of Oz" who has created an illusion of an economy on the upswing, when the underlying reality is not particularly good. If he can't maintain this illusion through the 2014 midterm elections, the Dems will not do that well (assuming the Repubs don't put up a lot of Todd Akin/Christine O'Donnell types).  

"Good Luck"
I'd like to see the past three years, and how many monthe were revised up, and how many revised down.  If they are as good with numbers as they should be, there should be about the same number down as up (give or take, obviously).  Does anyone have the data on how many were revised up and how many down?
[ Parent ]
Don't quote me on this
But I'm pretty sure its been universally revised down, at least up to the beginning of 2012.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"
[ Parent ]
VA State Senate Rs trying to pass
Prez by CD.
Won't pass.
http://www.timesdispatch.com/n...

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Senator Jill Holtzman
Is she the only Republican senator opposed to this?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
Corbett
The fact no A list Democrat wants to challenge Corbett this early is kind of interesting.  While Republicans might see him as vulnerable, the Democrats don't seem to be as convinced.

The problem is they don't have a good candidate even when you look at the A listers.  McCord is an obvious pick, but statewide office hopping is historically not that fruitful (Corbett and Casey are exceptions to the rule).  Dahlkemper will drive the Philly turnout machine like nothing else... not.  Shapiro screwed over the county unions and is despised by legislative Democrats.  The others are some dudes.  McCord is the only thing close to an A lister.  The rest are B list at best if not C list.

27, Republican, PA-6

Schwartz?
What about Rep. Schwartz? I'd consider her an A list Democrat.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker
[ Parent ]
I doubt Schwartz can play at all outside metro Philli.
The real question would be the Republican parts of SEPAl. I wonder if Castor--as a Monto commissioner--might not give her more trouble here than Corbett?

Also, Schwartz is in line for house leadership and pretty much has that seat until she dies. Quite a lot to give up for an iffy shot at a governor's race when the history against beating an incumbent in PA is so strong.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
She's already declined
But I think she would have been a strong recruit.
[ Parent ]
What about
Sestak?  Or Altmire?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Sestak (D-VA), Altmire (D-FL)


From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Is Critz still in the state?


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Critz for Governor
I'm smirking as I imagine Mark Critz uncomfortably fundraising for governor in a mansion in Lower Merion Township surrounded by wealthy, latte liberal, Jewish voters who are passionate in their hatred for gun rights, fracking, and social conservatism in general.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
I didn't say that he wouldn't have problems, but he's better than a Some Dude.


20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Not really
Critz would be far worse than a liberal some dude in SEPA but better in much of the rest of the state. Still, he's not much better (if at all) than a some dude statewide. He's also a grade-A, certifiable jerk (just look at how rude he was to a really nice guy in Keith Rothfus). Altmire was the SWPA candidate to be afraid of but he sold out and moved to Florida to lobby.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Critz
Philly turnout would tank and his western PA appeal is pretty much limited to say the least.  I suspect Corbett would win Allegheny County by a larger margin than he won in 2010.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
I never thought of that
Since they've never been west of the Lancaster county line people like Critz might as well be from Mars.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Even worse
He is not even an Allegheny County Democrat.  He is a Democrat from an wore down industrial town most associate with flooding.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Critz should move to FLA
And run with Charlie

Crist/Critz

[ Parent ]
Interesting from DKE
 TX-St. Sen: On Wednesday, Texas state senators drew lots to determine which members would serve two-year terms and which would serve four-an unusual process necessitated by the way the state conducts decennial redistricting. Why is that? Well, ordinarily, senators are elected in staggered fashion, with half the chamber up every two years. But in order to avoid problems that plague states like California, where some citizens literally go without representation for two years each decade, all senators are up for re-election following the drawing of new maps. To return to their standard staggered system, lots are then drawn as described above; those who get stuck with two-year terms have to run again for a full four-year term in 2014.

A full list of who lucked out and who didn't is available here. The most prominent name on the short-straw list belongs to Democratic state Sen. Wendy Davis, who will now be up for re-election in 2014. That means she won't be able to run statewide, and it also means Davis, who was first elected in 2008 and re-elected in 2012, will now have to go before voters in midterm years. Both of Davis's victories in this difficult district came by narrow margins, so her prospects will likely be even tougher without presidential turnout to motivate Democratic-leaning voters. But she's a dedicated fighter and one of the most prominent Democrats in Texas. If anyone can pull it off, she can.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Excellent
Without much else at stake in Texas, 2014 will be an excellent opportunity to dispatch of her for once and for all.
[ Parent ]
Mark Shelton
TexasR, does Mark Shelton run again?

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Shelton
He might, though I would hope he doesn't. He wasn't the best candidate, though he was the best we got when now SD-09 Senator Kelly Hancock's home got drawn out of the district by the courts. If we're going to run someone from the State House in this district, I suggest looking at Shelton's successor in the State House, Craig Goldman.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
CO-Sen; as expected Coffman out
http://blogs.denverpost.com/th...

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
Ryan Frazier?
He doesn't have a great electoral record, but I thought he was a good candidate.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
I like him too, but statewide is too much for him too soon
Especially against a solid incumbent. Frazier is better off waiting to replace Coffman one day, or if he loses, run against an incumbent Democrat.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
What difference at this point does it make?
"With all due respect, four Americans were dead. What difference at this point does it make?"

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/...

Finding out who knew what when has been very important in congressional investigations since Watergate. Wouldn't Bush have liked to answer any questions about Iraq this way?

I imagine this will come back to haunt Clinton in the general election.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

I highly doubt
It haunts her at all in a primary or in the general if she runs.  There will be many more current issues being talked about.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I still think Hillary would prove unstoppable in 2016
The thing is, for the first time, I no longer think she'll actually run again. I think Biden will run, face a moderately competitive primary, win the nomination (Biden-O'Malley?) and probably lose narrowly to an exciting, diverse and conservative GOP ticket (Rubio-Jindal?).

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Talk about a lack of ticket ballance
A white Catholic guy from Delaware and a white Catholic guy from surrounding state Maryland.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Well
White Southern guy from Arkansas and White Southern guy from Tennessee worked pretty well for the Democrats.  Ticket balance counts for less than you think.

The bigger problem is the lack of "diversity" on the ticket. Either one would need to pick at least a woman and probably a minority woman to satisfy the base.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
Yes
If Biden somehow wins the nomination (color me flabbergasted if that happens) he will have to pick a Woman. Realistically his only options are Klobuchar, Gillibrand, and Warren.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
No Chance
Joe's popularity is based on him carrying the President's banner. I can't see him getting the nomination if he stands on his own. That said, an old White guy who makes more gaffes in a day than most people do in a month would be the perfect candidate to run against. Go Joe!

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't dare underestimate him
I can't, for instance, see how he'd ever lose Pennsylvania or Ohio in a general election. He has plenty of appeal with the white, "blue-collar working class" types you'd find in SWPA. And sure, he's a gaffe monster, but I think many find that's simply part of his charm.

And in terms of netting the nomination, five of the last six Democratic vice presidents eventually wound up atop the ticket, so recent history's certainly on his side. He won't even bother if Hillary enters, obviously. But it's not like Cuomo will give him a single goosebump.  

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
1988 and 2008
Joe got yawns from primary voters. He makes John Kerry look formidable. His gaffes were ignored when he was VP. It doesn't work that way for a Presidential candidate. Are you forgetting who invented the Internet or who was before something before he was against it?

Yes, VPs do have an advantage but Joe will be 73 in 2016. The last three Presidents have been in their 40s or 50s. People like young these days, especially Democrats.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Democrats like young leaders?
Hmm..

Age This Year

Harry Reid...74
Dick Durbin...69
Nancy Pelosi...73
Steny Hoyer.....74
Jim Clyburn....73

[ Parent ]
Democrats didn't vote them as leaders
I said Democrats like young leaders. I didn't say they had young leaders.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Democratic Base is Largely Negative
In the sense that I think that the identity of the candidates is less important because the identity groups within the democratic coalition are less identity groups than ideological groups.

Therefore excitement would be a problem with that ticket, not because it lacks a minority or a woman, but because its quit frankly boring.

I think Biden would therefore likely pick someone designed to be a red meat figure. Schweitzer is perfect, combining both moderate/regional appeal, with being a militant red-meat partisan. Warren would be ok, but I don't think being a woman would make up for Schweitzer's better regional profile.

If you were going Massachusetts Deval Patrick would actually be quite a good choice, but would be in danger of outshining the top of the ticket. Then again, anyone except O'Malley would carry that risk with Biden on top. Of course, my suspicion is that Biden, much like Hilary if she ran, would be running more as a transitional figure between Obama and whoever was next than as a "star" themselves, in which case he might well not mind being overshadowed provided it was in a good way.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Rubio-Jindal is kind of redundent
In the sense that you are running two Southern Republican conservatives more distinct for their backgrounds than for ideological differences between them. Jindal, for reasons of his background and the fact that he ran in a very different state a political generation before Rubio has been a very down the line "Deep South" Republican Governor in a way that provides a lot of negative ammo among suburbanites outside the region. Much like being Governor of Massachusetts, as distinct from Senator, makes you by definition chose between "complicity" or leaving one step ahead of the mob, so does being governor of Louisiana. And Jindal, unlike Romney even, unambiguously chose Louisiana. That Ammo could be balanced by his assets if he were on top of the ticket and paired with someone else with a distinct identity(aka Christie or Sandoval), but at the bottom of the ticket his diversity adds nothing Rubio does not, and reinforces a lot of negatives.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
Mitt Romney was asked about things he said in 1994
How many times in the Republicans primary were the candidates asked about things they said or did years before? Unless the media wants to give her a pass on anything she's done or said it should come up in a debate.

What did you/the President know and when did you/he know it has been asked in every congressional investigation for 40 years. She's pretty much saying that when people die determining who he did what and when they did it is irrelevant, that congress should pass on oversight in matters where people are killed.

Would you have accepted this from the Bush administration over Iraq, Katrina, or anything else?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Codey decision soon
It seems odd that he would come out and say "I'll have a decision soon" if he wasn't seriously considering.  

http://www.nj.com/politics/ind...

NY-11: McMahon may run
I'm surprised he's not running for Boro Pres in 2013.

[ Parent ]
It is
a completely meaningless position.

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY
[ Parent ]
It's an Obama district
If Democrats are going to have a shot they'll need another hurricane to suppress the vote.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Staten Island changing too
Remember NY State as a whole is getting tougher and tougher for middle class to afford and Staten Island is prime example of that,  Been a huge influx of African Americans into the borough and if Dems ever control the lines in the state just moving the district more into Brooklyn will heavily hurt Grimm.  Once, the allegations against Grimm go away he should be fine.  
[ Parent ]
An Obama district with an asterisk
Staten Island's turnout was abysmal.

In a rematch, Grimm would have a slight edge. The district became more Republican during redistricting, as it shed some heavily liberal Brooklyn precincts. Grimm has also cultivated an authentic ethnic, blue collar image that works well in the district. However, given his baggage and McMahon's ability to outperform the generic D, this would be a marquee race

[ Parent ]
All depends on his ethics issues
If they grow in the next two years he can lose. I'd start this one as a weak Lean R, or maybe even a Tossup.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Faircloth Running Capito House Seat WV
How Democratic are each district?
What is the party breakdown in the West Virginia legislature by congressional district? Are there less elected Dems in the 2nd?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Yes
The 2nd has both the Charleston area and the Eastern Panhandle,easily the state's two most Republican areas downballot.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Faircloth is a nonentity
He is never serious about his bids and he has perennial candidate status now. Next.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
CA-17
If Ro Khanna does primary Mike Honda, state R party would be well advised to look for a Asian (preferably Chinese/Taiwanese) candidate to run as a R and provide as much support as their bank account can afford.  Here is my rationale:
-McCain got 28%, Whitman 33%, let's split the difference and say a generic R will get 30%.  
-50% of the electorate is Asian, based on my local experience it's probably split 30% south asian, 70 % rest with Chinese/Taiwanese being the dominant group
Having a south asian descent candidate go against a Japanese descent candidate on the D side, now this gets interesting.   Tribal politics is coming to America, sooner than later.  Both parties are ill prepared to handle it.  Don't need to elaborate on how that will play out in CA17.  On side note, there is more than insignificant Afghan/Pak population in this district, which may not go for a indian descent candidate.  
-27% of the electorate is white, probably strongly correlated with the 30% generic R number, as this district does not have a whole a lot of soy latte white liberals, 30 yrs ago this was like a bedrock suburban community, not much different than those found in Midwest.

So in a 3 way race, we could have our guy make the top 2, and then against Ro in a straight match with the all the factors listed above.......who knows, miracles can happen.  This top 2 system with the incredible diversity of CA is going to throw a whole lot of interesting/surprising results in future that straight arithmetic cant predict.  

41, R, CA-10

No chance whatsoever a Republican wins this seat


28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
You're overestimating the GOP
No chance sounds a little high for this district.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Yup
This district, while not as overwhelmingly Democrat as other parts of the Bay Area, is strongly partisan.  The voters there would vote for a ham sandwich if its opponent had an "R" next to it.  We honestly have a better shot at IL-2 than this one.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"
[ Parent ]
Yes, Yes, Yes, but.....
If the GOP ever wants to look at a stable majority, it has to look at places that look like this district.  Here is what I see in a district like this:

1) Not completely inelastic Dem voters like AA, recent Hispanic immigrants, govt employees, college profs, etc.  Its is full of engineers, sales people, technical/admin staff, kind of people that in other states vote lot more R. Its full of producers, not takers.
2) Issues that matter to voters, especially Asia Am, like discrimination in colleges, crime, transportation.  When did you see GOP ever make issues out of these, except in the 80's when they were winning.
3) This district is extremely diverse even looking beyond the standard white/hispanic/AA/Asian way looking by media, in hyper diverse environments like this, its lot more feasible for a out party to make inroads in select sub-groups, its what GOP get better good at it and fast.

I meant to write the original post as a thought starter, 70% Dem performance in recent elections is not lost on me.  

41, R, CA-10

[ Parent ]
GOP is finished in California
I don't think it's even worth talking about phrases such as "if the GOP ever wants to look at a stable majority" in reference to California. Their best hope is to get 1/3 in each chamber, but that's going to be tough.

Zero Dark Thirty for Best Picture!
[ Parent ]
Eliminate the tech industry
The idea that parties can win over certain voters is an ambitious fiction. As long as there's a tech industry in Silicon Valley Republicans won't make inroads. I don't care how you change your message or who you run you're never going to win over certain voters. I don't know why people act otherwise.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Think extrapolation
If CO was the tipping point stayed in last elections, my guess is that tipping point counties there were the eastern and western suburbs of Denver.  If  GOP is to improve in those areas, a similar subsection of those voters are present in places like CA - 17.  As I mentioned earlier, this is not San Francisco/Marin County/Oakland, places where even Ronald Reagan could not win.  If you talk to voters there, yes they all vote up and down the D line, but look at the issues they mention most, GOP has a strong opening with these voters without any compromise with their core principles, as opposed to lets say courting low income hispanic voters.  When was the last time you heard GOP talk against reverse discrimination in colleges which affects Asians the most/property crime increase/suburban rail transportation.  The last point is particularly potent, the Democratic Party in CA is hell-bent on building the SF - LA HSR boondoggle,  all the while no highway miles are being built in a state where a vast majority of people use car and will continue to use cars to go to work.  

What is we shoot to improve our performance 10% in districts like these?

41, R, CA-10

[ Parent ]
Texas Dems potential statewide candidates
State Sen. Wendy Davis
Houston mayor Annise Parker
San Antonio mayor Julian Castro
Dallas mayor Mike Rawlings
Rep. Joaquin Castro

Who else could be Dem potential statewide candidates?

For the GOP, there will be a new rising star in 2014, as George P. Bush will be a shoo-in in the general election for state Land Commissioner if he survives the primary, although I think it would be better if he runs for state AG. He can run for governor in 2018 or 2022.  

Parker?
No chance a lesbian wins a statewide race in Texas within Parker's political lifetime.

Wendy Davis is one of the most overrated politicians in the state. Two squeaker victories in a swing district do not make a juggernaut.

Julian Castro has some potential.

I don't think the Dems are going to be competitive for a while though...

Zero Dark Thirty for Best Picture!

[ Parent ]
Political Roundup for January 23, 2013 | 87 comments
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