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Political Roundup for January 24th, 2013

by: Daniel Surman

Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 07:30:00 AM EST


Senate

Massachusetts: Rep. Ed Markey (D) has released a list of state legislators who support his bid for Senator Kerry's open seat, including Speaker of the House Robert DeLeo. The list serves as further warning to potential primary opponents, including Rep. Steven Lynch.

New Jersey:
Senator Lautenberg and Newark Mayor Cory Booker both have strong name recognition in a poll by Farleigh Dickinson University, but Booker has the advantage in a primary. Among self-identified and lean Democrats, Booker leads Lautenberg 42-20.

Kentucky: There has been a lot of attention paid to Ashley Judd's potential run against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, but less on the intra-party distaste for McConnell. Some of the energy for a Republican primary seemed to dissipate when McConnell picked the campaign manager for both the Rand Paul senatorial and Ron Paul presidential campaigns, Jesse Benton (Benton is also married to a granddaughter of Ron). But now Kentucky Tea Party groups are expressing their desire for a primary, and the Paul-inspired Liberty for All Super PAC (which maintains offices in Kentucky after helping Rep. Massie when his primary in KY-04 last year) is willing to spend for "the right candidate."

Nebraska: Former Senator Ben Nelson, the 60th vote for Obamacare, will now head the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, a regulator that will serve as an intermediary between the states and federal government as the health care reform law is implemented.

Governor

New Jersey: After making the rounds in DC scouting fundraising pledges, State Senator and former Governor Dick Codey (D) is dragging out his gubernatorial announcement by letting an aide note he will reveal his plans "very soon."

More New Jersey: Quinnipiac finds Governor Chris Christie riding a wave of popularity with 74/21 approval ratings, His lowest margin is against Codey, who he leads 59-30. 79% of voters and 70% of Republicans approve of his criticism of House Republicans on their delay on voting for Hurricane Sandy relief.

Virginia: The redistricting snafu has given Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling another opportunity to posture as a moderate type as he continues to publicly toy with an independent run for Governor.

Bolling... had “grave concerns” about the Republicans’ plan partly because it would erase district lines adopted just two years ago. “He’s concerned that it could create a hyper-partisan atmosphere that could make it very difficult for us to address other important priorities,” said Ibbie Hedrick, deputy chief of staff for Bolling.


Minnesota: PPP finds Governor Mark Dayton (DFL) posting even higher numbers than Senator Franken for re-election. He leads former Senator Norm Coleman 52-39. A variety of other names are all basically unknown- former Speaker Kurt Zellers, Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, State Senator Julie Rosen, and former State Rep. Keith Downey. The approval ratings are worth looking at- 53/39 for Dayton and 35/43 for Coleman. At least Coleman leads a hypothetical Republican primary with 57% and the rest of the field in single digits.

House

WV-02: Former Delegate Larry Faircloth (R) has announced a bid for Rep. Shelly Moore-Capito's (R) seat, which will soon open as she runs for US Senate. Faircloth lost a campaign for state Auditor in 2012 and two gubernatorial bids (both losing the Republican nod) in 2004 and 2011. Sounds like a step above your some dude perennial candidate.

NY-11: Former Rep. Michael McMahon (D), who lost to Rep. Michael Grimm in the 2010 Republican wave, is eyeing a comeback bid. He told Roll Call he is "certainly taking a look at it," and he acknowledged that he has a short time-frame to make a decision.

Miscellaneous

TX State Senate:
State Senator Wendy Davis (D) has had some bad luck lately. First, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst stripped her education committee assignment this session, a position from which she has served as a consistent thorn in the side of the Republican Senate caucus. Now, Davis will be up in 2014 aftera post-redistricting random draw to decide which Senators would face re-election in two years and which in four. Davis has been talked up as a gubernatorial recruit for Democrats in the past, but now she will have to focus on winning re-election without presidential turnout working in her favor instead of a free shot at statewide office.
Daniel Surman :: Political Roundup for January 24th, 2013
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WV-2
While that "former state Del." in front of his name makes it unfortunately all too easy to mistake Faircloth as a serious candidate, he's best placed in the fringe some dude/perennial candidate category now. I'm actually in Charleston right now and his name isn't mentioned at all on the news (I'm sure it was squeezed out by the torrent of othr news, like the East End community board getting a new chairman). There's also this: http://www.dailymail.com/News/...

R - MD-7

What brings you to WV?
Shamlet for WV-02? :p

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
In two words, real life
unrelated to politics. There's a slight chance I might be working in WV next year.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
MN-Gov
Downey is actually fairly well known for a former state Representative. He advertised throughout the metro for that senate seat, and spent more than the Republican candidates in MN-4 and MN-5. He also had some deep pocket benefactors that dumped a ton of money on his behalf in November as well.  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Michael Brodkorp
He was the former aid that had an affair with former Senate majority leader Amy Koch, costing both of them their jobs. His subsequent lawsuits have cost the party millions if dollars, and was a major contributor to the current financial woes. He was driving drunk last night and got into a 1-car crash and is currently in critical condition. My thoughts are with him and his family

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

Brodkorp
He seems to have imploded over the last couple of years. I used to read MDE a lot back in day. Really over the top kind of guy, but had a good knack for crafting a narrative. Sad.

[ Parent ]
Turning an R+10 state blue in 4 years
http://www.politico.com/story/...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


These articles
They all talk about how wonderful things are for Democrats. How many paragraphs before they even talk to a Republican? They fail to mention that Texas Whites vote Republican 70% of the time because the national Democratic message doesn't resonate with non-urban Whites. Just once I'd like to see an article say, "Until Democrats abandon their extreme positions on guns, climate change, marriage, and entitlements they won't be able to make inroads with White voters."

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Democrats do win white voters a lot of places
Just not the old Confederate states or the corn belt. White voters in places like Maine and Vermont are quite Democratic, and those certainly aren't urban states.

I will give credit to Texas Republicans though. Nowhere else in the country had the Republican Party had as much success with non-Cuban Hispanics than in Texas. Pulling 45% locally a demographic that goes 2-1 or 3- Democratic in other states, including New Mexico which shares a lot of history with its eastern neighbor in terms of having borders move around the existing Hispanic populations instead of the mass influx of immigration after borders were well established. That was one area George W. Bush excelled at in terms of bringing a 50% +1 coalition together.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Texas
Would you prefer "non-progressive" instead of "non-urban" Whites? To me, they are interchangeable. Democrats have strong appeal to White who champion progressive causes like climate change, social justice, and abortion. Outside of them, they appeal to trial lawyers, strong union members, and the poor. The progressive message is an anathema to Whites in Texas who aren't urban. You'll find progressives all over Vermont and Maine who don't live in big cities. You won't in Texas.

If the Democrats want to make inroads in Texas they're going to have to move away from the extreme rhetoric on abortion, guns, climate change, and other social issues.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
non-progressive is a more accurate term
As you mentioned, not all progressives are urban. They certainly are regional but not all of them live in urban centers, as the former term would make one believe. I don't think Democrats will be competitive in Texas for a long time to come. But in reality, I don't think it is necessary for the party to be competitive in Texas. Some members of my party believe that if Texas' electoral votes were up for grabs, it would be a dagger in the heart of the GOP nationally. This simply is not a reality, as there is no such thing as a permanent majority in this country. When the Solid South switched from Democrat to Republican, Republicans had control for roughly 22 years from 1984 to 2006. But after those ten cycles or so, the natural shifting of coalitions happened and now Democrats don't need the South to win nationally. We would see this in again in reverse if places like Texas fall to the Democrats. Heck, we could be in such a scenario now, but we won't know it until we can look back at this era in politics and assess what happened in hindsight. Regardless though, it is moot, as neither the Democratic or Republican parties are going anywhere, although the composition of these parties will likely change in the coming decades, as they have always been evolving.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Obama and the Democratic majority
 That's a very reasoned analysis from a Democrat. There must be something wrong with you. [joking]  Your words echo those that Sean Trende wrote in The Lost Majority. In our current system no one party can be attractive to enough people to have any sort of permanent edge. As the Democratic party becomes more attractive to some people, it'll become less attractive to others.

Parties adjust to people, but it's not necessarily top down like people think. People who decide the Democratic party no longer meets their needs will elect an alternative candidate who might not be a traditional Republican and the Republican party will change as a result. The Republican party has become more libertarian and more fiscally conservative on the budget in the last few years as a result of this.

What the Democrats missed in 2008, and seems to be missing again, is that the Democratic party didn't win the Presidency, Barack Obama did. While many of Obama's supporters agree with the progressive agenda he expressed in his inaugural, what got him over the top was that people wanted to vote for him.

The Obama coalition is that it has Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians who have different social and economic interests. Some people in this coalition are voting for Obama and the Democrats primarily because Republicans hate minorities. That makes them a tough hold if they stop perceiving that.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Minorities
Blacks have long been a staple of the Democratic Party. Obama did not pull a significantly larger portion of the black vote than Clinton or Kerry did, only a couple percentage points in reality. These voters won't jump ship to the GOP once Obama isn't in the ticket. Hispanic voters have leaned D for quite a while, but they have become more Democratic with the younger generation coming of age. As for Asians, this is a fractured group, but largely they are less Christian than white voters, and are often put off  by the religious right. They aren't natural Republicans either...

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
People likely to vote Republican
Republicans were taking 11-13% of Blacks before Obama. They got 4-6% with Obama on the ticket. If these voters don't jump ship with Obama off the ticket the Republican party is really doing something wrong.

There's no doubt that all these ethnic groups do lean Democratic, more for economic reasons than anything else. Men lean Republican. Higher income people lean Republican. More educated people, except those with a graduate degree, lean Republican. People who own their own business lean Republican. More religious people lean Republican. Gun owners lean Republican. You have Blacks, gays, Hispanics, and Asians who fit the Republican profile but vote Democratic. Those people are the ones who are likely to slip out of the Democratic coalition.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
What does
More educated people, except those with a graduate degree.

mean?


An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.


[ Parent ]
Graduate school
People with a college degree are more likely to vote Republican. People with a graduate degree are more likely to vote Democratic.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Interesting.
Although I'm not sure why.


An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.

[ Parent ]
i believe Kerry got 93% of the black vote
Which is not all that different than Obama's 95% of the black vote. The last Republican president to get 13% was HW Bush in 88. So your presupposition that Obama alone halved the Republican share of the white vote is simply wrong.

And I don't really think "more educated except those with graduate degrees" is the a terribly meaningful statement. Republican support peaks with college dropouts aka "some college" and levels off for people with just bachelors degrees then sharply plummets beyond that.

And there certainly are suburban middle class minority gun owners that vote Democratic. There are also white voters that do as well. I am a gun owning, college educated upper middle class white man that livs in a suburb and grew up in a small town that had zero minorities, for insrance. Republicans don't exactly clean IP with their core Demographics the Democrats do, at least outside of the old Confederate States, and even some of them like Virginia doesnt see the types of monolithic bloc voting among white voters that places like Mississippi see.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
This exit poll says differently.
Bush got 11% of the National Black Vote.

I think 14% in Ohio.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...


[ Parent ]
11%<13%
So what I said is correct.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Kerry got 88%, not 93%
So that's not correct.

[ Parent ]
Demographics
Dole got 12.5% of the Black vote. Both got 9% then 11.5%. McCain got 4%. Romney got 6%. So, yes, my idea that Obama alone halved the Black vote is correct. That's dramatic. Bush got 44.5% of the Hispanic vote in 2004. If McCain had lost 65% of Bush's Hispanic voters he would've gotten 15% of the Hispanic vote.

Romney lost some college 49%-48%, but won college graduate 51%-47%. It was his best demographic. In 2010 Republican won some college 53%-43%, but won college graduates 58%-40%. That was their best group. In 2008 Obama won some college 51%-47%. He won college graduate 50%-48%, his worst group.

So no, Republicans don't do better with "college drop-outs" (people with A.A. degrees aren't drop-outs). I'd have to see data but I'd bet that Republicans do even better with people with graduate degrees if you exclude those who work for government or universities. I'm guessing that M.D., PHD, and MBA all skew GOP.

Of course there are white voters who fit all the Republican demographics and vote Democratic. McCain was R+5 with White college graduates. If Republicans win White college graduates 54%-45%, why can't we get 45% of Black/gay/Hispanic college graduates?  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
The 44% myth
Bush got 40%, not 44%.

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton

[ Parent ]
Not according to the exit polls
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/52...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Those exit polls are garbage
They were debunked by Steve Sailer long ago.

http://www.vdare.com/articles/...

http://www.vdare.com/articles/...

http://www.vdare.com/articles/...

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton


[ Parent ]
Age doesn't tell the full story
Obama won 44% of whites 18-29. He won 39% of whites 65+. Obama won 74% of U30 Hispanics, vs. 65% of 65+ Hispanics. So the hispanic age gap is roughly double the white age gap.

That said, Romney clearly dropped off Bush numbers with elderly hispanics by at least 10 and probably 15 points.  


[ Parent ]
Minorities
Blacks have long been a staple of the Democratic Party. Obama did not pull a significantly larger portion of the black vote than Clinton or Kerry did, only a couple percentage points in reality. These voters won't jump ship to the GOP once Obama isn't in the ticket. Hispanic voters have leaned D for quite a while, but they have become more Democratic with the younger generation coming of age. As for Asians, this is a fractured group, but largely they are less Christian than white voters, and are often put off  by the religious right. They aren't natural Republicans either...

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Hispanics and age
If I recall from the 2012 polls there wasn't a substantial difference in voting patterns of young and old Hispanics, controlled for other factors. There just happen to be more young Hispanics.

Asians have of course done a 180 since 1992.

28, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
It's sort of redundant
To say that the Democrats' message doesn't resonate with Republicans (non-progressives). Well yea, that's why they're in their respective parties.  

Rand 2016

[ Parent ]
Corn belt?
I would say wheat belt. Democrats do fine in a number of places where corn is grown: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, downstate Illinois.

[ Parent ]
TN-5: Cooper behind "No Budget, No Pay" idea
Democrat Jim Cooper says he started the push for the "No Budget, No Pay" idea put into the debt ceiling bill.  With his Sandy vote and this, he is almost asking for a primary challenge.

http://www.tennessean.com/arti...

33, R, IN-09


Jim Cooper
I'm coming around towards him. While I'd certainly rather have real conservative instead of him and loved the idea of carving his district up, Cooper just may be my favorite House Democrat. He has no reason to be acting as he is in his district and I therefore think he's being pretty genuine.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
"No budget no pay"
That would be a great issue to primary someone on...

[ Parent ]
Personally i favor the mi budget no pay provision
Not just for the senate but the house too. Of course coming from the good governance camp, I think way too much deference is given to politicians. One electoral reform I support is that if a stat is shut down because of a budget not being passed, every member of the legislature and the sitting governor should be barred from seeking reelection the following cycle, no exceptions.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
yeah i was being snarky
I don't know how someone could use support for "No Budget No Pay" as an argument against any politician of any party or ideology in a Primary or General.

[ Parent ]
Cooper
I don't think this is necessary as issue to run on.  It just draws further attention to Cooper as someone who bucks his party.  There are plenty of Nashville area Democrats who have little chance to move up other than this seat.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
There's no local machine to help either side in a primary fight.
Any movement on either side's part would be unique to this situation. Given that situation, Cooper has the overwhelming advantage.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Awesome.
Let's restrict Congress to independently wealthy people who can afford to work without a salary. What a brilliant and novel idea!

[ Parent ]
That's the founding fathers' line of thinking
I have no problem with paying Members of Congress, although I believe their salaries should rise and fall based on changes in national real income. Which means Congress should have taken significant pay cuts in recent years.

[ Parent ]
The book I'm reading
I'm reading a book on the Constitution and they debated whether legislators should be paid. Their theory was that rich people wouldn't be bribed for their vote.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
It actually is a great idea
It was what our country was founded on. I am convinced that Philosopher Kings is the only form of government with a chance of being just. Restricting the vote to property owners was a way of effectively replicating Philosopher Kings.

Today, I wouldn't support gender or racial bias, but I do think you shouldn't be able to vote unless you own something, be it property or investments. Otherwise, you will be motivated by your desire to get something for nothing.


[ Parent ]
Well
We certainly disagree on your last point.  I think voting rights should be expanded not contracted.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Just to property owners, maybe.


[ Parent ]
OH-Gov
Cordray nominated as permanent CPFB head. I'm guessing that means he's out... Looking more like FitzGerald or Sutton facing Kasich now.

R - MD-7

Cordray
Cordray has also been rumored for the Supreme Court.

[ Parent ]
VA redistricting in the 2013 primaries
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling wouldn't go along with a plan by fellow Republicans to spring a redistricting plan on Senate Democrats. But at least two Republicans who'd like to succeed him were for it.

One of them, Sen. Stephen H. Martin (R-Chesterfield), voted for the measure in the Senate Monday. And on Wednesday, Prince William County Chairman Corey Stewart offered his wholehearted support.

28, R, PA-07.


Sam Brownback still wants to be President,
or at least that's what I gather from his latest proposals and future plans:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/24/us/politics/gov-sam-brownback-seeks-to-end-kansas-income-tax.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

Perhaps he is the second-time's-a-charm candidate
He has a compelling resume and Republicans tend to select candidates who have run for president before. maybe he is the one for 2016?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
In your dreams
With such a talented bench of 2016 candidates, our candidate will surely not be Sam Brownback of all people.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Assuming he wins in November
I think it's Cuccinelli.

[ Parent ]
Frightening thought
He's so freaking polarizing.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
I'd like to sleep with Kate Upton
nm

An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.

[ Parent ]
Okay
So, let me guess: the reason you mentioned that here is because her uncle (Fred Upton, R, MI-06) is a Congressman?

[ Parent ]
Heh.
That warrants a +1.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Indeed.
I'll second that "+1."

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Duh!
Sorry--I'm dense tonight.

[ Parent ]
Union membership declines nationwide, grows in California
http://www.latimes.com/busines...

Just 12.5% of the workforce was represented by unions nationwide in 2012, down from 13% the year before. But 18.4% of California's workforce was represented by a union last year, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Given that union membership tends to make one vote Democrat, just another nail in the California coffin.

28, R, PA-07.


I'm not surprised.
There was some normal decrease due to economics, but the changes in WI in MI surely contributed to the decline. CA is probably hiring new government workers in some areas. I also wouldn't be surprised if private sector unions are actually gaining ground in CA, especially in low-skill, low-wage professions that can't really be moved out of the state.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Unions control the legislature in California
They can use their power to increase union membership. So they're trying to pass legislation that'll unionize housekeepers and nannies. I'm sure they'll figure out how to unionize the tech industry some day.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
the rust belt really isn't highly unionized anymore
OH: 13.9%
WI: 12.0%
IN: 10.0%
MI: 17.1% and heavily dropping

Union membership is also up in DC and Massachusetts.

In the end we seem to be heading towards greater policy divergence between deep blue states and red/purple states (which are mostly pretty red at local levels).

28, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Bring it on
Maybe it will get so bad that large chunks of Wall Street and the Valley will move to rational places like Texas.  

[ Parent ]
The Public Unions are so out of control here in CA, it's ridiculous
They should freeze this moment in state government for classes everywhere in dysfunction and crony capitalism.

An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.

[ Parent ]
Boehner: Obama wants to 'annihilate' GOP
http://www.politico.com/story/...

I read this as Boehner saying that Obama has no desire to do anything for the next two years but hopes to make Republicans so unpopular that he can get Democratic majorities in 2014. That doesn't sound like governing.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Poll: GOP can woo Latino voters with shift on immigration
http://www.latimes.com/news/po...

The biggest Republican problem here is that too many Latinos are convinced Republicans hate them. That's what needs to change.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


I don't buy it
a. I really don't like the precedent of allowing people who knowingly broke the law to get away with it when others live by them.

b. I think it will add to social services of this nation big time.

c. Here in NY State it didnt help Republicans at all that gay marriage passed even when we controlled State Senate and could of blocked it.  In fact no one in any gay groups or someone issue is important too would ever dare say its made them more likely to vote GOP.

d. if all these Latinos are made voters I trully believe the Dems will far increase their voter registrations in a lot states and we can kiss our chances goodbye


[ Parent ]
It's hard to support a party that is hostile to not just you but towards someone you may know
And that's the problem the GOP had with Latinos and it mostly stems with the immigration problem.

I can understand that some believe that these folks may be asking for a free ride that others had to pay for, but consider this: what was the immigration system a century ago in Ellis Island? Or other such landing spots? Immigration used to be a lot easier than it is today and speaking as someone who went through it recently (with my wife), I will tell you first hand that our legal system is horrific and if we had to do it again we would have certainly cut corners that we noticed along the way.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
ummm
Yes in 1900 there were mines, factories, and farms that were expanding rapidly... how does that relate to today?

The law changed in 1924 when we became saturated with immigrants. My grandfather could not come here legally in 1927 so he went to Canada instead, even though he had no family there. He waited 7 years there for the opportunity to come legally to the USA.

If the GOP caves on this issue, they will lose many, many more votes than they will gain. It will be the last straw for many.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
So because your grandfather had to suffer in a broken system, we must all accept a broken system?
And no, I don't accept that we will lose more votes than gain. The old white male vote (that is mostly against this issue) is getting trumped by numbers to young ethnic voters. Immigration reform is common sense - I suggest going through our legal system now to see how ridiculous it is - and with the demographic changes in this country, the GOP is smart letting people like Rubio move forward with the issue.

Now, that doesn't mean bend over backwards to groups like La Raza or maybe even giving Obama a huge victory, but we at least need to change our approach to the issue and give off the impression that we give a damn.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
the system was not broken
when my grandfather wanted to come here. The country just decided it was time to slow down and let the large communities of immigrants assimilate. My grandfather accepted that, respected the law, and waited.
 

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
the lack of a place to go
Where do these voters go, if immigration is really the last straw? Certainly not the Democrats if immigration is the be-all end-all issue for them. These voters are too engaged to sit out an election, so that giant an option. Do you think we are a huge influx of voters to the Constitution Party? I kind of doubt that. The Libertarian Party would also be to their left on immigration as well. In reality, the voters would grumble as they said in 86 but remain loyal Republican voters in all likelihood.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
1986 Amnesty is precedence for this.
No shift to the GOP in subsequent elections.

Besides, Latinos are now the poorest ethnic group in the country with a higher poverty rate than Blacks.

Unless they climb up the economic ladder, they will continue to vote Democrat because its in their best economic interests.


[ Parent ]
1986 amnesty
Didn't solve anything, it was just a one time bandaid on a severe wound. The legal immigration system in this country is a mess. There's a reason it's not just Latinos but Asian-Americans who feel irritated with the GOP and the immigration positions are a big part of it.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Adding millions to a country where there are already millions unemployed....
is not practical.

If that is irritating to certain ethnic groups who are unable to gauge that this is a lousy economic climate, then so be it.


[ Parent ]
Check out the work by Alex Nowrasteh at the Cato institute
That premise is completely rejected. It is big government that has stifled the economy and a more free flowing immigration system that encourages competition helps ease that problem.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
I'll give it a read next week....
Judging what I saw in the US IT industry in the 90s to present day with the influx of millions of H1-Bs, I have my doubts.

[ Parent ]
Except
They're already in the country. You aren't adding anyone to the labor force because they're already here.

Rand 2016

[ Parent ]
Another amnesty won't solve anything either
Amnesty will legalize millions more democrat voters, and any enforcement provisions will be ignored, leading to another amnesty down the road.

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton

[ Parent ]
"Amnesty"
No one's plan would make anyone here illegally citizens immediately. In a Democratic plan, they're probably be able to become citizens in 7-10 years. In a Republican plan, it might be never.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Amnesty means
eliminating the penalty for an offense.  In this case, that means allowing illegals to stay, aside from waiving any criminal penalty.  Giving citizenship is actually worse than amnesty, since it would reward the crime.

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton

[ Parent ]
Amnesty definition
Is indeed eliminating the penalty for the offense. And no one is talking about eliminating the penalty. There still will be one in any immigration package. It just won't be deportation.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Entering the country illegally
is a crime punishable by jail time.  (Overstaying a visa is another matter.)  The "penalty" in most amnesty plans is some piddling fine, which is a complete joke since the economic value of legal status in America (much less citizenship) is much larger.  After amnesty, illegals would probably be able to sign up for various welfare programs, making the "fine" a great investment.

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton

[ Parent ]
Immigration is not why they think the GOP hates them
The "Pass Immigration Reform and Hispanics will like you" canard is being run by the chamber of commerce. The bigger problem is that Hispanics are demographic democrats in the sense that they don't fit into the normal GOP coalition - they are much younger than the population at large, poorer, tend to be more urban, and unlikely to be Evangelical. They also tend to live in states where all of the above are more correlated with Republican identity, and that identity is more cohesive, almost tribal in some cases, than is the case, in say, New Hampshire.

As a consequence Hispanics tend to be Democrats, or at least not straight ticket Republicans, and voters who aren't straight ticket Republicans in the South and Midwest tend to get lopped into the "Democratic" category by default, and face all the sorts of harassment whether through voter purges, voter id laws, having districts chopped up, and a general consistent verbal assault that tends to make most Democratic voters in those areas hate Republicans regardless of their individual issue preferences.

In sense this is the fault of the GOP, but the reality is that the South and Midwest have a very long history of extreme partisan polarization,and if Democrats and Republicans hate each other, and Republicans are white and Democrats non-white you will end up with this situation, The GOP is not on the losing side of it really except in the areas outside of the South where some of those influences seeped in the 1990s/early 2000s(ie. California/Colorado/Virginia).

29 London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Recovering Academic putting skills to work in Commodities Trading and Analytics


[ Parent ]
Okay, so lets keep a broken immigration system, continue to use harsh rhetoric
And watch the Latino vote going from 70-30 to 80-20 in the next decade as they continue to take a larger share of the total vote.

If you don't trust a party because you think they will harm you or your family or someone you know, then it is pretty difficult to vote for them. And that is a huge problem Latinos have with the GOP. Will we ever get a majority? Probably not. However, there are more Latino voters we can get, say from 27 to 40+ (even as they become a larger share of the vote) than we can with swing white voters.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
you are mixing issues up
Streamlining the legal immigration system and rewarding illegal immigrants are 2 distinct issues. And as you know, Democrat resistance to guest worker programs has been a major roadblock to the former.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
They are interconnected
The system had been broken for several decades and people will do whatever they can to get their families a better life. Getting a guest worker program is a big part of it.

Imagine if your spouse or parent surprisingly was found to have no status today. Would you want that loved one deported? Or stuck in legal limbo? That's the situation a lot of folks are put in and that's why the exit polls should around 70% support the idea of giving those folks legal status.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
disagree
There are 100s of millions worldwide who want to come to the US and obviously we cannot accomodate all of them. Our country, like every other country, has the right to regulate immigration to suit our needs, regardless whether some people feel they are above the law.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
Having a free flowing system that allows for even temporary status and giving the world full time status are two different things
And with those that are here, it is better to find a solution than to leave them in limbo. Also, you didn't answer my hypothetical question, which seems quite telling.

This site is electorally based, so I'll try to bring the focus more towards it. Given that you're view is only represented by about 30% of the 2012 electorate - and it is continually shrinking - how is this position sustainable for the GOP? Unless something gets done about it, it would seem like we will be in a lot of trouble.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
They are interconnected
Passing an amnesty and dumping tens of millions into the legal immigration system would make it even more of a mess.  We should fix the legal immigration system, but we cannot pass amnesty if we want to do so.

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton

[ Parent ]
please tell us
who of the illegal Immigrants would be much more likely to vote Republican if made legal?  I can't think of many.  Its not just Hispanics, the Carribean, African Americans, the East Asians and they tend to be in predominant states and cities like NYC .  Also wouldn't it conversely make a lot white males just give up on party?

[ Parent ]
Illegal immigrants aren't voting obviously
But their friends and family do. I suggest reading the other comments I've made in this thread because I don't want to get too redundant.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
exactly
Expect to hear "there's not a dime's difference between the parties" if the GOP caves. They will stay home, vote 3rd party or even vote Democrat based on other issues.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
They would most likely vote Democrat based on economic issues
I don't think there are too many upper-income illegal aliens.

[ Parent ]
$36,000 average income
That's well below the $50,000 national average, but it would also surely rise if the burden of evading ICE were removed.

Illegal immigrants are also 60% male, 90% in the work force, and about 60%-70% attend religious services regularly (estimates vary).

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
I don't think it would rise that much, case in point: New Mexico
84% of New Mexico's Hispanic population are Native-born, but they continue to lag behind Non-Hispanic Whites.

Non-Hispanic Whites earn about 40% more than Hispanics in New Mexico.


[ Parent ]
Age
The median age of non-Hispanic whites in New Mexico is 42 years old. The median age of Hispanics in New Mexico is 27 years old. Older workers make more money than younger workers.

And, yes, it goes without saying that immigration reform will not cause Hispanics to flock to the GOP. As with other immigrant groups throughout U.S. history, it would take time to enact the shift toward assimilation and electoral 'normalcy' (by which I mean that ethnic background ceases to be a meaningful predictor of partisan affiliation).

So, I guess the choice for Republicans is whether you want it to happen within the next couple generations or whether you want it to never happen.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Age is a factor, but there are others....
I mean having large families because it's forbidden to use birth control tends to drive down income by raising the median age.

Types of employment for New Mexico Hispanics (construction, government), which have been hard hit.

Also, lagging behind Non-Hispanic Whites among education.

And New Mexico Hispanics are unlike Hispanics in many parts of the country, namely 84% are native-born. Families that go back hundreds of years...basically assimilated.


[ Parent ]
Yes
And 44% of NM Hispanics voted for GWB in 2004. 29% voted for Mitt in 2012. Why do you suppose that is?

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
They suffered moreso due to the recession
nt

[ Parent ]
McCain got 30% of the NM Hispanic vote in 2008
And he was pro-amnesty.

[ Parent ]
McCain won the GOP primary in between
Complete the Danged Fence

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
No he wasn't
He changed his position in the primary. He didn't support reform.

[ Parent ]
Its not the issue itself that's the problem
Bush won a large portion of the Hispanic vote for two reasons.  The first is that he actually acted like he gave a damn about them (holdover from being a Republican in Texas where you usually have to).  Don't ever underestimate the power of local rallies and boots-on-the-ground grunt-work, particularly in a community that is less reliant on TV and the internet to get its political news.  A great example of this is the Cruz vs. Romney numbers in South Texas where Cruz got 31.4% in heavily Hispanic Webb county compared to Romney's 22.6%.  This is how Jeb Bush did so well with Florida Hispanics while governor.

The second reason is that the perception of immigration is more important than the actual issues.  Hispanics watched the 2006 immigration debacle and came out with the impression that Republicans opposed immigration reform because they didn't like Hispanics.  That was a vastly more important issue than whatever specific policy the Republican nominee actually supports.  If Romney was running in 2004 he'd have gotten considerably more Hispanic votes than he did, even adjusting for the percentages.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
OK
So you don't think GWB's support for comprehensive immigration reform vs. Mitt's call for self-deportation had anything to do with it?

BTW, over 60% of New Mexico Latinos know someone who is undocumented, 50% know someone eligible for the DREAM Act, over 85% support immigration reform with a path to citizenship, and some 55% call it the most important issue in determining their vote.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
McCain was pro-amnesty and got only 30% of the Hispanic vote
And it was so important for them that the % of the New Mexico Hispanic electorate dropped from 41% in 2008 to 37% in 2012.

And 47% of NM Hispanics rated the economy as the most important issue for them. #1 issue for them.


[ Parent ]
And while GWB did get 44%, I think there were other issues at play...
Regional (Texas governor) and 9/11.

[ Parent ]
Bush didn't get 44%
http://www.vdare.com/posts/the...

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton

[ Parent ]
You didn't answer...
...my question: Are you saying that immigration is irrelevant to determining whether New Mexico Hispanics vote Democratic or Republican?

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
I'm sure to some, yes.
But I believe socio-economic status trumps it by a lot, especially among Hispanic Whites.

And Obama's non-White ethnicity is also another factor for the increased Hispanic support.


[ Parent ]
Economics
A lot of it is economics as stated and once can make a reverse correlation that when economy is good Hispanic are more likely to vote Republican then when its bad and Democrats are party of gov't entitlements and will give them free welfare, food stamps, free cell phone, etc.

[ Parent ]
Immigration Reform
That's a bit far-fetched. People aren't going to abandon the Republican party, who they agree with on most other issues, because Republicans propose immigration reform. There's never been a mass move to 3rd parties and I don't think pro-gun, pro-family, small government types will vote Democratic because Republicans are "soft" on immigration.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
union and blue-collar types
they also tend to not care about tax hikes on millionaires and some other GOP issues. So their loyalty is weaker to begin with.

50, Male, Conservative Republican, NJ-09, originally NY-18
Tell the "Food Stamps" President: self-reliance is a good thing!


[ Parent ]
The middle
It's conceivable that there are people in the middle who are voting Republican based on this specific issue, but there are more voting against Republicans on this issue. The business community doesn't like the Republican immigration policy.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Don't make the political activist's mistake
of assuming everyone is passionate about politics.  There is always the option of staying home.  If Republicans don't give voters any reason to be excited about voting, you and I may still support them, but many people (rationally) won't.

By the way, larger percentages of people want immigration restricted than want small government, are pro-gun, and possibly even are "pro-family" (depending what exactly that means.)  Who represents them?

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton


[ Parent ]
Don't make the talk show caller's mistake
He assumes that many people are single issues voters and will vote third party or stay home if the party varies on his issue. Of course all Republican voters don't agree with each other and I doubt few agree with party line on everything. If Republicans lost voters by disagreeing with them on one issue they'd probably get 15% or the vote or some other small number.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Change happens at the margin
Embracing illegals will cost republicans some votes.

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton

[ Parent ]
I'm sure it will
Any change in policy will cost votes. The question is whether it'll gain more than it'll cost and where the votes it costs go and where you get the votes. If they take votes from Democrats and lose them to some independent they're ahead. They sure aren't going to lose them to the Libertarian party, because libertarians have a very different view of the immigration issue.

http://www.lp.org/issues/immig...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Immigrants in Canada vote conservative.
That might be a roadmap for the Republican Party.

http://mypolitikal.com/

[ Parent ]
Possibly
The Canadian Tories have essentially locked the religious right and libertarians in the closet and are dealing with immigrants who are very conservative in their nature.  They are also exploiting a political opposition that went off the deep end on law and order issues.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Canada
Has anyone done a diary of Canadian politics? While they might not be as prominent there they must have a religious right and other groups we have here. Their conservatives and liberals are likely to the left of ours on many issues, but I'd think they are more likely to have the same issues being prominent as any country in the world.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
In the late 1800s/early 1900s
Immigrants to the U.S. often voted against the previous group to arrive--i.e., if the Irish were Democrats the Italians voted Republican.

[ Parent ]
In regards to C
It most definitely helped Mark Grisanti, he recieved a major cash infusion from gay rights groups and was able to win over with decent cross over appeal, enough that one person actually tried to register new voters to the conservative party in an effort for Grisanti to win.

The choice of a gay rights tour guide in Buffalo was obvious. Kitty Lambert and her partner were the state's first gay newlyweds. When the law went into effect, she and Cheryle Rudd - both longtime gay rights activists and, as Lambert likes to say, "two fat grandmothers" - drove from their home in Buffalo up to Niagara Falls for a midnight ceremony. Lambert grew up Mormon, endured a series of husbands in the effort to live up to her religion's expectations and came out as a lesbian in her 30s. Between them, she and Rudd have five grown children and 15 grandchildren.
Kitty Lambert, who now goes by Lambert-Rudd, got to know Grisanti pretty well during months of lobbying him on the marriage bill, as he struggled with the tension between his Catholic faith and his lawyer's reverence for equality. The lawyer won. ("I swore with my hand on the Bible to uphold the Constitution," he told me. "I didn't swear with my hand on the Constitution to uphold the Bible.") Lambert-Rudd became so protective of the senator that she began a campaign to register like-minded Buffalo residents as members of the Conservative Party, hoping they could fend off Mike Long's reprisals. She signed up about 300. This, someone joked, was like getting rabbis to enroll in Hamas to make it less hostile to Israel.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04...

What really hurt the GOP was NOM's primary challenges. Even if the GOP candidate survived, the NOM candidate could still siphon off votes with the conservative party line. Had Log Cabin or GOP Proud stepped in to muzzle the those challenges, there may have been more survivors.


[ Parent ]
The article itself doesn't even really support that
31% would be "more likely" to vote Republican mostly represents the ones who are voting Republican anyway.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
It does support that
That difference would be enough for a Republican presidential candidate to win 42% of the Latino vote and the presidency, Segura said.


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Romney got 27% in a poor economy
And he tried to clean up his act during the last few months. And he was up against an incumbent Democrat who broke the record on deportations. Our numbers can certainly get worse than what they were in 2012, especially as younger, American Latinos continue to get older.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
There are a couple of dimensions worth bringing up that haven't been yet.
First, there's no reason not to do something for the "dreamers" right now, and this may be a wedge issue. Heck, even Krekorian of NumbersUSA basically acknowledged that the dreamers are Americanized and shouldn't be punished for their parents' bad decisions. Republicans should handle the dreamers first, and separately from a broader deal, possibly tied to some common-sense border security reforms and help to Mexico in fighting the cartels.
Second, and this is a more long-term issue, we're going to need an influx of highly-skilled immigrants in about ten to fifteen years, maybe twenty at the outside. Even if we reform our totally unsustainable entitlement system, we need to live with the fact that (A) there's going to be some sort of retiree benefit program and (B) the currently projected worker to retiree ratio is pretty lousy for the forseeable future. We are going to need new workers, and given birth-rates among the native born, that means immigrants. Rather than closing the flood-gates altogether--which is completely unworkable and even counter-productive in the long-run, Republicans should work on solutions which incentivize highly-skilled, young and innovative immigrants to come, stay and assimilate. This means reforming and streamlining the immigration system. Immigration regulation, like every other kind, should be flat, fair and simple. This also means keeping it simple for entrepreneurial immigrants to start businesses; it's all tied in together.
By and large, I think Rubio's going in the right direction on this issue (and I actually think Mike Pence's 2006 plan was very free-market and had some positive elements). Like all difficult issues, it should be handled carefully. But this is also about more than electoral politics; fixing this issue--rather than playing endless political games with it as Democrats have been doing--is actually in the national interest as well.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
+1


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
For heavens sake....
Let's get real on immigration (I am legal immigrant myself).  If Romney had goten Bush's much talked about 40% of hispanic vote, he still would have LOST the election. Now the question is how did Bush get this relatively high share of Hispanic voters, could it have anything to do with him putting fuel on housing bubble fire!!  Anybody remember him prodding lending industry to go to zero down loans to increase minority home ownership back in 2002-04 time frame (painful for me to think that a republican president would go down that line).  The resulting housing bubble was strongly correlated with areas with increasing hispanic population (think central valley and inland empire of CA, Phoenix, LV, FL I-4 corridor) and was also the area where Bush's share of hispanic vote went up the most between 2000 and 2004.  Well all good things come to an end and so did this bubble, and look what it left us with. It would be interesting to see where GOP has collapsed the most since 2000 elections, and it wouldn't surprise me if the above-mentioned areas figure prominently on it.  Interestingly if you go back and look at 1992 elections, Bush I's vote share declined the most from 88 elections in areas like LA and New Hampshire, those two areas just happened to be the epicenter of then housing bubble that had collapsed.

GOP's ceiling with hispanic voters in normal circumstances is low 30% and declining, as more recent immigrants become voters.  

A carte blanch amnesty no matter how it is sold to the public will turn a bunch of purple states blue by 2020 (VA, FL, CO, NV), and bunch of red states purple (GA, AZ, NC).  I am actually not concerned with TX because of the reasons mentioned above (70% white R vote) and a much more assimilated hispanic population (there is texmex food, no calmex food).  

42, Hardcore R Except Abortion & Gay Marriage, CA-10


[ Parent ]
For the record
NC is already purple.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
NC
You could argue that the state Democratic Party has never been weaker.

[ Parent ]
See my comment below
It's an absolute trainwreck, and they've gone from controlling everything to Texas Dem-style praying for demographic changes in the span of 2 1/2 years.  

24/M/Republican/Law Student/NC-13

[ Parent ]
Oh, please
North Carolina isn't even Georgia, much less is it Texas.

It's a reddish shade of Virginia. Those two are more or less fellow travellers now. Texas is another world altogether.

Romney got 50.4% of the North Carolina vote. That's not a red state.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Maps, Money, Candidates
The GOP has them, the NC Democrats don't. I'd love to hear what the path back to power looks like for Democrats in this state barring major McCrory missteps. Those maps are locked in and impenetrable, the party has a desperate shortage of candidates, the state party structure is a trainwreck, and RTP ain't NoVa, as much as y'all like to tell yourselves that it is. The great Democratic hopes are either unknown CoS members, former legislators, or Anthony Foxx...and that is pretty much it.  

24/M/Republican/Law Student/NC-13

[ Parent ]
OK
The maps stack the deck. No one disputes that. There is no serious path back to a legislative majority or a majority of the congressional delegation in the near term. No one disputes that either.

Now, as for statewide races, Republicans find Republican office-holders much more impressive than anyone else does. That's to be expected, so I'm sure from your standpoint the Democratic bench is a hopeless wasteland by comparison.

John Edwards (notwithstanding his later downfall) and Kay Hagan weren't on much of anyone's political radar, until they were. In short, all the elements are in place for a Democrat to emerge and rebuild the party as Mark Warner did in Virginia.

While I'm sure you'll say that's just wishful thinking, and perhaps it is, it's still not Texas...

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Not Texas obviously
I don't find the GOP statewides except for McCrory to be particularly amazing political talents, but there is a strong pipeline of good talent from the legislature now, and time to develop a few members of the Congressional delegation into statewide-worthy contenders. Not seeing that potential being developed from anyone on the Democratic side. The great hopes (Cunningham, Mansfield, Grier Martin) don't ever seem to find an office to climb into. I don't see that Mark Warner figure emerging in the near future, but I may be wrong. I expect around a decade of ineffectual NC Democrats (Hagan may hold on if she draws a bad opponent)  

24/M/Republican/Law Student/NC-13

[ Parent ]
We'll see
I'll be very curious to see what happens to NC when Obama is not on the ticket to drive black turnout.  

[ Parent ]
We saw that in 2010
When 2014 rolls around, not only will Obama not be on the ticket, hopefully, party-line voting will be abolished, a reduced early voting to perhaps 7-8 days and a voter ID in place.

[ Parent ]
It sure is
And the Nevada Republican Party has never been weaker, but Nevada is a purple state, not a blue state.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
True
But the state parties in Nevada correctly indicate the state's recent trends. Democrats are in the odd position of being competitive presidentially in NC but are spiraling everywhere else.

[ Parent ]
Uh...
I mean I guess NV is a purple state...depends on how you define it. If both parties nominate good candidates in a neutral year in an open race, the Republican isn't going to have much of a chance. I personally would define that as blue. I think NC is more of a purple state than NV, but that's because the Democrats are more moderate than the Republicans in NV are.

The biggest problem for the GOP is that our candidates in newly purple areas (parts of NOVA, Colorado, Nevada, etc.) often still act like old candidates in R+10 areas...


[ Parent ]
Well...
he would have carried Colorado and Florida, and he would have tied in Nevada.

Also, you could give illegal aliens permanent residency but not citizenship. If coupled with serious immigration reform (i.e. everyone who graduates from US university in STEM fields gets citizenship) I think it could work.


[ Parent ]
The definitely can
George W Bush showed this when he won decent amount of latino support in 2004.

Changing Rhetoric can make a big difference.

It would also be a benifit not to count on social issues to pull the latino's into the Republican party in the long run. While Latinos seem to be more religious and less in favor of abortion and Gay marraige, social issues are not their number one priority, hence why Imperial county CA can vote overwhelmingly for Prop 8 and still vote to reelect a President who supports gay marraige. Also younger latino's are less conservative than their elders so social issue will have an even less of an impact.

What the GOP really needs to do is start running more latino candidates for office and not be afraid to back them finacially. Otherwise Democrats will have a monoply. Take for example in CA 2008 assembly race:

The Republican nominee for the 80th District is a young up-and-coming politician by the name of Steve Sanchez.  Sanchez is a Conservative stalwart, well liked by the base of the party including the Tea Party.  He served for several years under a previous well-liked Assemblywoman, who termed out, as her District Director.  Sanchez is an 8-year Marine Corps Combat Veteran and active in many non-profit organizations and on the Board of Directors for two local Chambers.  In other words, the perfect pedigree for his race.

By all accounts, Steve has run a solid campaign, the best his opponent has been able to come up with against him is some missing paperwork on a business he owns, hardly a scandal.  And he has earned the endorsement of every local Federal and State representative in his area.  Steve Sanchez, a Latino candidate in a District that has been represented by a Republican for 8 of the last 10 years, in a year that is going the Republican's way, has everything he needs to win.

And yet he went on to lose that electio. Why? you may ask?

Steve's Democratic opponent, Manuel Perez, is also Latino.  But he has received nearly $300,000 in direct support from his party to try and hold this seat.  Steve Sanchez, the only Latino candidate running for State legislature in California as a Republican, has received $0. That's right, nothing.

Now the GOP did run more latino candidates in CA in 2012 but they need to run more, if they want to have a chance.

[ Parent ]
Old CA-AD-80
Steve Sanchez was the 2010 (R) nominee who lost 58.3-41.7 while, interestingly enough, the 2008 (R) nominee, Gary Jeandron, lost 52.7-47.3 (an open seat IIRC).

One of the major problems with the CAGOP is money, we don't have it when we can get it if we actually tried. I feel optimistic that Jim Brulte will effectively deal with that problem as well as the others plaguing our state party.

21-Cubano, R, CA-38
Community College Trustee, City Commission Vice-Chair, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
Thanks for the correction
And yes it was open in 2008 as the Latina Republican incumbent was termed out.

Brulte should be a good fundraiser. I think party should focus on the assembly and defending their house seats.


[ Parent ]
Look to 1923
The pattern of immigration to United States for the past three centuries is a continuing set of ramp and flat, i.e. most immigrants have come in waves that have lasted between 30 - 50 years.  Think of the original wave of German immigrants, followed by the Irish immigrants in the mid 19th century, followed by the Eastern/Southern European immigrants up to 1920s, with the latest wave started in 1965.  These waves have been interceded with periods of flat to little immigration, I would argue that these periods have been essential to allowing the melting pot to melt and assimilation to happen, allowing US to grown up as a country with continuously changing and unique but singular identity.  Conservatives and Republicans must use the immigration debate about to happen to look at the issue of legal immigration,  something they have completely cowed from in the past which my guess is due to a combination of influence of cheap labor lobby and general hesitance to confront politically incorrect issues.  Essentially the country is admitting 1M illegal immigrants every year, up to two thirds of which are coming on non-employment basis.  Couple with the fact that 50% of all immigrants today use some sort of public assistance,  you can safely assume that a big chunk of the non employment based immigrants today are going to be candidates for public assistance in future, a country with aging population already can ill afford to take on such a large number of folks going forward.  Just look at the following video of what looks like Somali immigrants hustling over section 8 vouchers in columbus:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

More on this in a separate diary but republicans and conservatives must use the coming debate on immigration to significantly reform the current system, in a way that benefits the whole country, not the specific class of people and lawyers.

The Canadian system as modified over last couple years does look like a good example, it defocused family/refugee based immigration and strongly emphasized employment/skill based immigration.


42, Hardcore R Except Abortion & Gay Marriage, CA-10


[ Parent ]
I agree
I don't think we should allow anyone to come to our country who doesn't have a college degree.

[ Parent ]
how about refugees?
e.g. Darfur, Iraq, or 1930s Germany?

Age 22, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Yeah, but ...
Who will cut our grass? Wash our dishes? Clean our hotel rooms?

We still need people to do our s**twork, and Americans won't do it.


[ Parent ]
Go check BLS stats
There's not a single profession categorized by BLS where foreign born workers are more than 50% of the population.  Sure all hotel maids in NY/LA/Chicago are immigrants often illegal, but guess who does that work in Jackson Mississippi, Nashville, Tulsa, Minneapolis?  I'm speaking from experience as a road warrior for 20+ yrs in management consulting work.  

The biggest impact of illegal immigration has being on American workers making $10-$15/hrs range, it's very hard to move in this range when there is a never ending supply of people willing to work for less.

42, Hardcore R Except Abortion & Gay Marriage, CA-10


[ Parent ]
41 with "20+ years" of experience?
Kudos on your early start.

[ Parent ]
Hence why our crops go unpicked
We don't have enough skilled farmworkers in the country and refuse to provide visas to get enough.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
What crops go unpicked?
I don't buy it.  This is a myth promoted by the farm owners who want to drive down wages.  Immigration is a subsidy to businesses since government ends up paying for education, welfare, police protection, etc.

If farms can't afford to pay people to pick crops then they shouldn't have planted them.

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton


[ Parent ]
Proof positive
This article is nothing but another shill attempt by media to bamboozle Republicans into supporting de facto amnesty.  Look at the paper below:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com...


42, Hardcore R Except Abortion & Gay Marriage, CA-10

[ Parent ]
CT-5; Malloy might appoint Roraback to the bench
http://ctmirror.org/story/1886...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Beat me to posting this
I read this over breakfast and lost my appetite. Roraback is our strongest candidate in Connecticut and I really hope he realizes that and takes on Esty again.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
This sucks
NT

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
MA-Gov; Coakey planning on reelection
http://legalnewsline.com/news/...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

I'm shocked
This all but leaves Grossman the imminent nominee, which probably leaves Brown in a more confusing position than ever. I'm not sure he can defeat generic D in Massachusetts, which is basically what Grossman and Markey are. I'd still wait for 2014, but I imagine Brown would've rather faced Coakley, after a difficult D primary.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Jeb 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Brown for Governor
I've said it all along. He should wait this couple of months and then run for Governor, rather then getting defeated two times in a row in a couple of months.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
Grossman must have lined up a lot of support already
I think if I'm Brown, I'd go up against Markey rather than Grossman. Grossman has been OK at Treasurer. Markey has a long history of far left voting in Washington, doesn't really live in the state, and has a pretty low name ID.

Yes, if Brown defeats Markey, he will have to run against a year later, but the opponent for 2014, if Markey doesn't try again, will have substantially less time to campaign than did Warren.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
NJ-Gov: Zuckerberg to host Christie fundraiser
http://blogs.wsj.com/metropoli...

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


Il-Sen; Durbin deciding in a few weeks
http://m.nbcchicago.com/nbcchi...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

RNC targets urban areas
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Makes sense. Pretty much ignoring the major cities worked fine the 1980s through the 2000s when the 22% or so that W scraped together was sufficient when paired with suburban dominance.

But cities are slowly growing again after decades of contraction. Well, some are. Places like Washington DC have been contracting from 1950 to 2000 and started growing again in the last census.

28, R, PA-07.


Urban areas
Doing what this article suggests would just be asking for electoral trouble. The voters this article talks about reaching out to are largely poor, and will vote for Democrats because of that. If we want to expand our appeal in urban areas, we should focus on the pockets of urban wealth, and start getting more of the voters in the surrounding suburbs to vote their pocketbooks in order to turn some of those light blue states light red.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
well, yes and no
Take NYC.

Compared to W in 2004, Romney did pretty comparable in Manhattan itself. He dropped 8 points in Queens.

Not all of those voters are poor.

28, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Umm...
I didn't say all of those voters were poor, I said most of them were poor, and that rings true in many of the areas that that article suggests we should try to compete in. IMO, trying to compete in those areas is just a fool's errand, which is what I was alluding to in my comment. It makes no sense to try in those areas when there is much lower hanging fruit in pockets of urban wealth, and affluent to moderately affluent suburbs.  

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Staten Island
For that matter, McCain won Staten Island, but Romney loat it.

[ Parent ]
That's because the Romney sections of SI
was under a few feet of water! GOP sections on the South Shore and coast were the hardest hit by Sandy. half those areas still didnt have power on election day. So I would put a VERY big * next to Romney's SI numbers.

[ Parent ]
SI has been a swing area
And not necessarily in the same direction as the rest of the country.

Gore 2000
Bush 2004
McCain 2008
Obama 2012


[ Parent ]
How Many counties in the US
voted for 4 different people in the last 4 elections like that?

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Errr
*I wonder how many counties in the US voted for 4 different people in the last 4 presidential elections.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
I'm sure there were some Gore-Bush-Obama-Romney counties
The swingiest of the swing counties, you might say. But SI might be the only Gore-Bush-McCain-Obama county in America.

[ Parent ]
RNC targets urban areas
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Makes sense. Pretty much ignoring the major cities worked fine the 1980s through the 2000s when the 22% or so that W scraped together was sufficient when paired with suburban dominance.

But cities are slowly growing again after decades of contraction. Well, some are. Places like Washington DC have been contracting from 1950 to 2000 and started growing again in the last census.

28, R, PA-07.


VA-Gov: McAuliffe up 1; Bolling a non-starter as indie
http://hamptonroads.com/2013/0...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Jeb 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

Prebius: 50 states strategy
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

There was a small thread
The other day about Wasserman Schultz, where the sentiment seemed to be she raised money well, and won. Thus even though she isn't the best mouthpiece she's a good national head for Democrats.

Does Prebius raise money? Because he definitely doesn't win.


An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.


[ Parent ]
Does anybody think
that the Republican Party failing to win the presidency had anything to do with Reince Priebus-as if having somebody else as RNC chairman would have produced a different result? For that matter, does anybody think DWS had anything to do with the Democrats winning? Party chairmen have more to do with fundraising than actual election results.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Howard Dean
Was he an outlier?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
That's why
the question was, does Priebus raise money?  

[ Parent ]
That's why
the question was, does Priebus raise money?  

[ Parent ]
MA-SEN/MA-05
Also, the list of people running in the 5th congressional district, should it become vacant.

BMG pointed out that nearly everyone on the list lives in the 5th or, at a minimum, represents some portion of it:
http://bluemassgroup.com/2013/...

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7


Zuckerberg for Christie
His first venture into partisan politics.  Obviously he was with Christie and Booker in Newark with his large donation to the city, but this a little surprising to be honest:

http://www.politickernj.com/62...


I think the Winklevoss Brothers will be endorsing Barbara Bouno
nt

[ Parent ]
No, they'll just claim they held a fundraiser for Christie first
And sue Zuckerberg in federal court

[ Parent ]
Scott Brown's Facebook
Not sure if anyone else here sees Brown in their news feed, but he's spent the month posting prolifically on everything except politics--sports, movies, his family, you name it. A tea leaf that he's not about to jump back in against Markey, or a sign that he realizes he had to get back to the guy he was in 2010? Interesting strategy nonetheless.

His early ads were like that too - family and sports related
I think he's trying to cement his "ordinary guy" reputation.

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

[ Parent ]
It's the first time the guy hasn't been in elective office since the late 1990's
With more time on his hands, and at home, that may be just what he thinks about. I've seen a few political things thrown in there as well though.

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Brown's FB
His FB is now a lot like Charlie Baker's... politics occasionally comes up but it's mostly just Brown posting his thoughts and stories like an average person does, albeit he has 200,000 followers on FB unlike most of us who have between 200 and 1,200. Baker and Brown both have a lot of personality, something we saw in Brown but didn't really see in Baker when he was running for governor.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
2014 GOV news: Cutler all but in, Coakley officially out
http://www.pressherald.com/pol...

http://legalnewsline.com/news/...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Why wouldn't Cutler run as a Democrat?
Yes, he'd have to run in a primary, but let's face it, a majority of Maine Democrats already voted for him. I'm overjoyed that LePage may be able to sneak back into office in a three way race, but isn't Cutler a fool not to run as a Democrat?

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
You answer your own question
He won't gain Democrats but could lose independents. If you run as an independent in New England your brand is that you aren't partisan. You lose that if you become partisan.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
He would gain Democrats!
In 2010, Libby Mitchell (D) took 19%. Those are probably 90% Democrats. Cutler lost by 10k votes.

In 2012, Cynthia Dill (D) took 13% against Angus King. Cutler can't post King numbers against LePage amongst Republicans, he needs those Democrats to win.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
I think Lepage is highly likely to win a 3 way race
There was a poll earlier showing just that.

28, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Connecticut
Ugh, it's official, Andrew Roraback won't ever run for office again now that he's a judge. Dannel Malloy just made one of the best political moves he could have made and just disarmed the CT GOP of one of its, if not its best, candidates. Who runs for CT-05 in 2014? One interesting, out of the box idea would be Dr. William Petit, the Cheshire physician whose family was murdered in the Cheshire home invasions. Apparently, his father was a GOP committeeman in Plainville for decades. I doubt he'd be interested but the fact that he suffered so greatly from gun violence would somewhat disarm CT Dems from an attack they're sure to use on the CT GOP: that the GOP supposedly dosen't care about stopping gun violence and instead cares about inflexible, unalienable gun rights instead of valuing human life

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


Linda McMahon
She just might go for the House this time, non?

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
Linda McMahon
No, she won't be running for anything ever again. Plus, voters wouldn't take kindly to a Greenwich candidate parachuting into NW CT to run for the US House.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
WATN: Senator Lugar becomes Professor Lugar
Richard Lugar joins Indiana University's School of Global and International Studies.

http://fox59.com/2013/01/24/fo...

33, R, IN-09


Heh
Lugar's first visit to the Bloomington area since c. 1979! (or maybe he made a stop or two in the area when Mourdock was going after him, but other than that...)

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Caring about how often he was actually in Indiana...
...really worked out well for the GOP, didn't it? :)  

[ Parent ]
Did not
I myself was perfectly happy with leaving Lugar alone for one last term. I was just making a joke.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
NJ-Lautenberg Bashes Booker's Performance as Mayor
http://nationaljournal.com/pol...

He hits Booker's tenure in Newsark  pretty hard, along the same lines as the recent NYT article.  

Lautenburg doesn't seem inclined to retire, to put it mildly. I'm still surprised at just how much ill-will Booker seems to have among the NJ establishment types for the sin of building a national profile instead of working within their machine.
Unfortunately, it's still hard to imagine any Republican (except the completely uninterested Christie) who could make this race competitive, no matter how ugly a primary could get.

Also, this is my first comment here at RRH after a couple months of reading. Looking forward to contributing as much as possible!

24/M/Republican/Law Student/NC-13


Welcome!
Oh, the Tar Heel State. I think it's my most likely landing spot after college. Help keep it red in the meantime!

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Red NC
Will do!

Although rock-solid redistricting last year, a state party that's still new to power (and thus not prone to the intra-party fights that paralyze South Carolina), and the recent election of a governor who almost perfectly fits the state's ideological profile makes keeping this state red a fairly easy proposition in the short run. It's amazing how fast we've transformed here politically in the last 2 1/2 years.  

24/M/Republican/Law Student/NC-13


[ Parent ]
Completely amazing turnaround
After its embarrassing losses in 2008, the NC GOP rebranded itself into being a fiscally focused party and really put itself in good position in the suburbs of the three major metropolitan areas (Charlotte, Piedmont Triad, and especially the Research Triangle). The fact that Dems got greedy and took away any control of redistricting from the governor when they thought they could never lose the legislature means that, with strong maps, the NC GOP will be in good position so long as it stays at least on fair terms with the people of the state. Also, from what I've heard, McCrory's agenda will be ambitious and undeniably transformative for the state's business climate. If I could be any politician in America right now, I'd be Pat McCrory so that I could take a shot at turning NC into an economic powerhouse.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
2010 was a godsend
The GOP came close several times in the 1990's to flipping the  state, but never quite made it due to the state's historical love of Blue Dogs and the general dysfunction of the state party.

The Democrats set themselves up for an epically disastrous 2010 experience. Corrupt governors and shady lawmakers poisoned the 'pro-business Democrat' brand that had ruled here for so long. That, combined with a string of badly timed retirements in 2010 and the national environment that year, gave the GOP the power to transform the state. Major GOP donors had set up the think-tanks and outside groups necessary to fund the effort in the right year, and state legislators (particularly Tillis and the old-guard 'moderate' GOP state House members) did an excellent job of recruiting young, professional candidates capable of flipping long-time Democratic seats.

Those same moderate Democratic legislative leaders also ensured that they would have an extremely steep hill to climb back to power if they ever lost the GA. They weakened the Governor's office whenever possible (viewing it as more likely to go to the GOP) and set up a strong network of fundraisers only interested in access-and who promptly abandoned them once they lost the GA. Perdue couldn't stop the legislative maps due to their foolish decision not to give the Gov that veto power.

Now, the state Democratic party is basically a copy of the SC and GA parties. Dominated by members from minority-majority strongholds and urban liberals who have no shot statewide, and the state party is an absolute disaster comparable to the Nevada GOP apparatus. There are a few McIntyre style Democrats left, but they are few and far between.

2010-2012 were very good years for us policywise, and I am truly excited about the next couple years. I'm often annoyed I'm in law school at the moment and not in the thick of it anymore.  

24/M/Republican/Law Student/NC-13


[ Parent ]
Roy Cooper
Roy Cooper scares me, but he, Kay Hagan, and Mike McIntye are really the NC Democratic Party's only bright spots. The GOP pretty much destroyed the NC Democratic Party during the '10 and '12 cycles. Plus, Hagan and especially McIntyre may well not be back in the halls of Congress in 2015. I think Cooper could beat Burr if 2016 is a good year for Democrats but Cooper seems so skittish that I doubt he'd run unless he knew he could win.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
Memories
This takes me back to when Chuck Robb lost his senate seat to George Allen. Virginia had a Republican governor, two Republican senators, recently-minted and growing Republican majorities in both legislative chambers, and a newly Republican-majority congressional delegation. The Virginia Democrats were just utterly doomed, doomed I tell ya! My how things can change..  

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Not Doomed
...and VA still has GOP legislative majorities and a GOP governor. No doubt NC Dems will one day come back to power, but it will be several cycles from now and likely take a wave year in 2020 to retake the legislature and keep it.  

24/M/Republican/Law Student/NC-13

[ Parent ]
NC Dems aren't completely out of the game yet
They still managed to hold most of the statewide offices. The party seems to be closer to Kentucky politically than SC or GA.
All eyes are now on how Kay Hagan will do in her reelection campaign.

[ Parent ]
Statewide Offices
That numerical superiority is mainly due to the fact that the state GOP made very little effort to recruit for the Council of State races. Every incumbent won fairly easily, and many individual state House or Senate races were more expensive that the state Insurance Commissioner, Treasurer, Auditor, SoS, Labor Commissioner, etc. races. It will be interesting to see if those races are a priority next cycle.

Ten years ago, a comparison with Kentucky would have been apt, with both states being heavily GOP presidentially and friendly to Democrats downballot.  Now? Not so much. In NC, Obama performed far better than the state Democratic party-for example McCrory ran roughly 9 points ahead of Romney and won both of the state's largest counties.  

24/M/Republican/Law Student/NC-13


[ Parent ]
The GOP wants Lautenberg to stay
In case his health requires a resignation that Christie would be happy to fill.  Not that they wish anything bad for the Senator.  But facts are facts.

[ Parent ]
Morbid
But true. I think it's more likely Lautenburg recognizes this and throws his weight with a chosen successor, who probably loses to Booker in the primary.

I have no love for Lautenburg, considering his general nastiness on abortion and gun-rights issues. NJ machine types are almost as bad. Short of a GOP'er in this seat, Booker is probably the best we can hope for ideologically, even though he creates a long-term threat with his national profile.



24/M/Republican/Law Student/NC-13


[ Parent ]
Welcome!
I'll be the first one to second RRR's welcome. While I would (ideally) never live anywhere outside of Texas, I support the NC-GOP in spirit, and would like to thank you (and other NC GOP voters) for keeping NC a reddish purple.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
no, encourage him to move to Texas!
preferably Neugebauer or Thornberry's districts.

Age 22, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
If I were going to encourage him to move to TX
I would advise him to move to Irving, preferably in what will be TX-06 after SCOTUS strikes down Section 5. :p

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Heh
Would buying a fake ID that says I'm 25 be enough for me to run for the newly created DFW seat that was turned into Veasey's MMD TX-33 thanks to Section 5? :p

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
It'll work fine
until you become President and people start asking to see your birth certificate...

23, Democrat, CO-4 (home), MI-12 (law school) 

[ Parent ]
Thanks!
For all the (true) talk about NC becoming more Democrat-friendly at the national level, the new GOP legislature and Congressional delegation makes this a truly exciting place to be a Republican.  

24/M/Republican/Law Student/NC-13

[ Parent ]
Joe Walsh
Shira Toeplitz ‏@shiratoeplitz
Weeks ago, I heard rumors abt @RepJoeWalsh challenging @RepHultgren in '14. Not true: Walsh told me he's only looking at #ILSen, #ILGov

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Baca running again
http://blog.pe.com/political-e...

26, Male, R, NY-10

Scott Walker for President!


Why wouldn't he challenge Gary "DOA" Miller?
NT

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Revenge
Baca doesn't strike me as the sensible, pragmatic type. He wants his rematch.

[ Parent ]
Yup
This is the woman who beat his son for her State Senate district, and dared to challenge him for his congressional seat.  He doesn't want to win, he wants to get her out of Congress.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Alliance with Miller
Baca formed an alliance with Miller in 2012, getting his help with Republicans in CA-35 for Baca's help with Democrats in CA-31. I have no idea if that comes into play.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Baca
I'm not surprised he's running again. I'm surprised he's not running in CA-31. He lives there and the district is prime for a Democrat to win. You'd think Steve Israel would push him that way.

I'm curious about his strategy. CA-35 went 31% Romney and 33% Whitman. It's likely a Republican will run next time. It'll be interesting to see what strategy each uses for the primary. Will they target Republicans in the primary?  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Cory Gardner for Senate?
Hugh Hewitt asked him about it on his radio show and Gardner said that he wouldn't dismiss the idea or commit to it. He's clearly open to running.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

he'd be an A list candidate
along with Jane Norton, but I think it would be stupid.  Mark Udall is in Richard Burr territory; he will only lose in a wave but unlike his cousin he won't win in a blowout.  I guess some people are risk takers, but this is a Lean D race that Udall won't lose unless it's 2010 again.

Age 22, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
D+1 state
Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin are all D+0-D+1 states. Colorado was less kind to Republicans in 2010 than the others, but none should be impossible in 2014. Lean D is winnable.

Udall will, of course, be an incumbent, and Republicans did only beat one incumbent in 2010 or 2012.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I thought we beat two
Lincoln and Feingold.  Feingold of course being the better comparison, being from a Tilt-D State and having a pretty inoffensive image.

Are there any Republican industrialists from Pueblo that we can recruit?  Just saying.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
beat two incumbents
People forget Lincoln because she was DOA by the beginning of 2010.

Lean D is winnable, but I'm saying it's not a good investment for Gardner; he's got a 25% chance or so of winning (my guess is he loses by about six), and if he loses he has nowhere else to go.  It's like if Brad Miller had run against Richard Burr in 2010.  It wouldn't have been impossible, but it would have been a likely career ender and more likely to be a loss than not.

Age 22, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
I assumed we beat Ben Nelson too
I had already forgotten all about Bob Kerrey's brief return to Nebraska. I was also a bit surprised to remember that Brown was the only incumbent who lost in 2012.

[ Parent ]
Is it a career ender?
It is if you want it to be. I assume Joe Sestak saw it that way. Steve Pearce certainly didn't. There have been a lot of congressmen who've run for higher office and lost, only to win another election later. The senate is a huge opportunity and candidates often take it even if they look like an underdog.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Steve Pearce only made it back to Congress
because a Democrat won his seat.  Unless you think Gardner's red seat will go Dem, he can't have it back.

Age 22, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
There's nothing else obvious to run for either
Maybe Bennet in 2016, maybe Governor in 2018. But he's better off just waiting for either of those.

[ Parent ]
2018 Governor makes the most sense to me
He's very young; he could serve a term (or two).

Bennet will be up again in 2022 (or retire).  Gardner won't even be 50, and if he were a popular govenor that would be a marquee battle.

Age 22, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Law and Order Liberal.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
2010 was a career-ender for Sestak
Because of his age--he's 61 now. If he were five or ten years younger that might be different.  

[ Parent ]
Sestak is also a jerk
He's anything but a team player and he'd have to make ammends with a bunch of PA Dems whom he has pissed off since leaving office. For example, he fundraised for Allyson Schwartz's primary opponent for no reason other than that he doesn't like her and that he is always looking to stir up trouble. That was classic Joe Sestak.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
Sold on Bob Dold!


[ Parent ]
He did have a reputation for extremely high staff turnover


[ Parent ]
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