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Political Roundup for January 25, 2013

by: BostonPatriot

Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:00:00 AM EST


Tons--literally, TONS--of news today, so grab your coffee before you sit down to read. Who said nothing happens in January of off-years?

Senate

AR-Sen: Need confirmation that Sen. Mark Pryor (D) is feeling the heat? Bill Clinton, who usually emerges after Labor Day to help Dems in tight races, is hitting the campaign trail for him. In March. Of 2013.

GA-Sen: Rep. Tom Price once again firmly refused to rule out a primary challenge to Sen. Saxby Chambliss. With Rep. Paul Broun and former SoS Karen Handel also interested in running, it seems to be open season on Chambliss, who could be the only Republican Senator to face a serious primary next year.

MA-Sen: Mass Dems are generally good at getting their ducks in a row behind the establishment pick, so Ed Markey's latest endorsements are no surprise: Martha Coakley and Steve Grossman, who join John Kerry and the House of Kennedy.

ME-Sen: If Susan Collins leaves the Senate anytime soon, it will be voluntarily. Republicans, Dems, and Independents all give her high marks, and she trounces even Mike Michaud by 18 points. As with Snowe last year, we'd be in big trouble if Collins retires.

NJ-Sen: I have no idea what Frank Lautenberg is doing, but it's fun to watch. Down by 20 points in primary polls and reasonably likely to retire, Lautenberg continues to hit Cory Booker hard, this time over his mayoral record.

Governor

IL-Gov: AG Lisa Madigan (D) sounds more interested in a primary challenge to Gov. Pat Quinn, but has one big obstacle in her way: her father, Speaker Mike Madigan. The younger Madigan would make this race Safe D. Republicans hoping to get a shot at Quinn include Treasurer Dan Rutherford and Rep. Aaron Schock.

MA-Gov: Speaking of ducks in a row, it seems like Dems are rallying around the generic Steve Grossman in this race. Martha Coakley is out (she'll seek re-election), leaving Grossman as the only establishment figure, although he could be tested by an outsider like Dan Wolf or a DC technocrat like Donald Berwick.

ME-Gov: Ex-Gov. John Baldacci is "more likely than not" to run for his old job in 2014, which is great news for Gov. Paul LePage (R). The presence of a well-known but disliked Democrat on the ballot along with liberal Independent Eliot Cutler is perhaps the only recipe for a second LePage term.

NJ-Gov: The Big Fella is getting a hand from Mr. Social Network. Mark Zuckerberg will make his first foray into politics by hosting a Christie fundraiser next month.

OH-Gov: Ex-AG Richard Cordray (D) is staying in DC for another term as Consumer Finance Czar, which means John Kasich's opponent next year will likely be Cuyahoga Co. Exec Ed FitzGerald, although ex-Rep. Betty Sutton remains interested as well.

TX-Gov: Julian Castro, who reminds me of Jimmy Smits' character on The West Wing, will not run for governor. Castro gained a following in liberal circles after keynoting last year's DNC.

VA-Gov: A fairly useless poll from tiny Christopher Newport University has Terry McAuliffe (D) up 31-30 on Ken Cuccinelli, or 27-27-9 over Cuccinelli and Bill Bolling as an Indie.

House

CT-05: Andrew Roraback (R) seemed bullish on a rematch immediately after his loss to Elizabeth Esty, but now it sounds like he may be appointed to the state Supreme Court instead. Such a move would deprive the GOP of its best recruit here.

CA-35: Newly ex-Rep. Joe Baca is running for Congress again....but against Gloria Negrete McLeod, who just beat him by 12 points, instead of against Gary Miller, who is universally considered the most vulnerable Republican in the House. McLeod has now defeated both Baca and his son, so this is clearly a good old-fashioned revenge mission.

NY-11: Ex-Rep. Mike McMahon might challenge Mike Grimm, who ousted him in 2010. I have to think McMahon is kicking himself for not running in 2012.

SC-01: Add one more serious Republican to this primary field: Charleston school board trustee Elizabeth Moffley, who just loaned her campaign $200K.

Miscellaneous

Texas: Democrats are launching "Battlefield Texas," a sweeping initiative to distract party operatives and soak up tens of millions in cash for the next decade or two.

Virginia: A bill that would split Virginia's EV's by congressional district (a la Nebraska/Maine) appears unlikely to pass the Senate, as one Republican has already come out against it in the tied chamber. This bill seems as likely to hurt the GOP as help us; in a close election we could win Virginia but lose some of its electoral votes.

RNC: A pair Nevada GOP committee members will be among Reince Priebus' 6 nominators when he formally seeks re-election (he's unopposed). This is somewhat of an olive branch between the Paul-dominated Nevada party and the national GOP.

BostonPatriot :: Political Roundup for January 25, 2013
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Virginia
The VA EV bill is far more likely to hurt the GOP than to help the GOP, since there are few paths to the White House for a Republican that don't include winning the state of Virginia.

Is there really just one Virginia GOP senator that isn't too short-sighted to realize that?

Democrat, NC-11


There was one on the first subcommittee
I bet there are at least a couple others.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
agreed
I consider Virginia a must-win state for Republicans for 2016 & 2020.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Because it gives the State-Wide votes to the Winner of the Most CDs
Its a bit better for them, but yes, I think the inclination will be to wait for another cycle on it. Or at least not to crucify Bolling if he prefers to do so.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
You're right
If Virginia is the only one to do this it's likely a bad move for the GOP. In an election close enough for the electoral college to matter the Republican candidate more likely than not will win Virginia. It'll cost the candidate electoral votes.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Bob McDonnell will not support EC bill
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
NJ Senate: FBI investigating whether Bob Menendez solicited under-age prostitutes
WOW! Menendez is scum
If this story is true I am at a loss for words. The guy obviously has no ethical boundries. I dont know what is more insane the fact that Sen Menendez was having sex with child prostitutes or that the whole escapade was paid for by a scummy campaign contributor who in clear violation of Senate gift rules. This is the kind of story you expect to see about a politician in a bad cliche filled movie and not in real life.

[ Parent ]
SC-01
I'm glad that Sc has runoffs. This race is getting to be enough of a clown car that Sanford could sneak through without a runoff.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

Agreed
Sanford probably voted right, but his Argentina trip was inexcusable.  A Sanford victory would be an embarrassment to the GOP and the district.

35, conservative R, lives in PA-14, grew up in TX

[ Parent ]
Chambliss not running again
Awesome!
Tom Price for US Senate!

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
Hope springs eternal..


Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Fine.
In that case, Cynthia McKinney can be your standard bearer for Senate.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
Umm..
McKinney has been a Green Party member since 2007.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
It's Hank Johnson (Guam might tip over) now...
He's neck and neck with Sheila Jackson Lee as the stupidest member of the Congressional Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Queen Sheila
She's actually not all that stupid, she's just more incredibly belligerent and stubborn. Johnson is quite dumb, as you'd expect. Heh, my old roommate who worked for a former Congressman said he had a journal of stupid things she said in committee and in private and, one day, he gathered up his interns and read the dumb quotes for them. He was rather amused.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
why wouldn't Democrats want Paul Broun?


Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
He fits their narrative better
Broun is a loose-lipped ideologue for sure, but Phil "Akin was right" Gingrey is easier to make relevant in other states too.  They get to bring back Akin for an entire cycle with which to beat Northern Republicans with.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Other than Mourdock, I don't think Akin mattered anywhere


Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Agree
Akin only mattered where other candidates made similar statements.  Anyone who makes these statements should lose.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
He hurt the brand though
Akin became a national story, and that did not help around the margins or with long-term issues like reducing the gender gap. For this reason I also prefer Broun to Gingrey. He's easier to cast as a one-off, where as Gingrey would be seen as the latest in a series.

[ Parent ]
FP this


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Nathan Deal is a happy man today.
There have been rumblings of several people--including Handel--primary challenging the somewhat unpopular Deal. With Chambliss out, however, I'm betting they'll all pile into the GA-Sen clown car.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
FP
Please go to the separate thread for this.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Primary
Tom Price might be the ideal candidate here, since he has the conservative credentials to keep Broun out of the race and the mainstream appeal not lose us the seat. Hopefully the NRSC gets him into the race ASAP. Handel would be strong as well.

As long as we don't have Herman Cain or Broun, this seat is at worst likely R. Even with Broun or Cain it's probably lean R, but let's not blow this.  

24/M/Republican/Law Student/NC-13


[ Parent ]
Please run, Herman Cain!
The entertainment value would be epic!
And if he won, the Senate would never be the same again!

Mainstream Dem.  

Florida won't change EV allocation
http://miamiherald.typepad.com...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Recess appointments
Federal appeals court in DC has ruled that Obama recess appointments to NLRB were unconstitutional.

26, Male, R, NY-10

Reasoning
http://bigstory.ap.org/article...

What is the partisan makeup of this court?

26, Male, R, NY-10


[ Parent ]
Makeup
1 Reagan appointee, 1 Bush 41 appointee, 3 Clinton appointees, and 3 Bush 43 appointees

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
All of Obama's Appointments have been Fillibustered
Everyone. In fairness the same happened to every single Bush 43 nominee in his first term as well. Ground-zero for the need for some sort of Fillibuster Reform with nominees.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
The irony is
when filibuster reform on judicial nominees was proposed in 2005, it was called the "nuclear option" and Democrats were the ones crying foul over it. Maybe they wish now the Gang of 14 hadn't come in and stopped it.

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
NJ-Gov; Codey out
http://www.politickernj.com/62...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Kind of shocked by this
Codey lost the Senate Presidency and really has no power any more. He still has good credibility with voters from his time as Acting Governor. He would have been Christie's toughest opponent. So this is really good news for Christie.

[ Parent ]
For a politician
Codey has almost always seemed the least "power hungry" guy out there.  He genuinely likes his regular job, his family, and his life.  Sure, being Senate Prez is great, but it's not like he feels like he has nothing to live for since he's lost that.  Whereas some others would be seething about losing power, Codey always struck me as an "Eh...I still have everything I love" kind of guy.

[ Parent ]
Breaking News: Lynch running against Markey!
@aburnspolitico: we've got a live one! MT @WuWCVB Cong Steve Lynch tells supporters he'll announce next week he's running for Kerry seat.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Does he have a chance in a one-on-one?
N/T.

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
He has a chance of....
creating a divide amoung the Blue Collar vs Progressive Dems in MA. After Markey gets done painting Lynch as a pro-lifer waging war on woman there is no way liberal progressive Dems in MA could turn around and support Lynch in the general against a pro-choice Republican. And after Markey alienates Lynch's blue colar Dem base there is no way they will turn out for him in the general against truck driving Scott Brown. This primary (coupled with a summer special election when college kids are home) could be the dream scenario for the GOP.

[ Parent ]
Precisely
Under my recent presumption Markey wouldn't face a competitive primary, I've been thinking Brown would wait for 2014. Alas, with a contentious D showdown like this, I'm tempted to think Brown will run this year after all. (I still think Markey will win the nomination, though.)

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
That's the point
Markey will win the Dem primary by alienating the swing Blue Collar Dems he will need to beat Brown. I think waiting for 2014 doesn't get Brown anything. Scott Brown wont get a better opportunity than a low turnout summer special election. With Lynch in and a Dem primary on the horizon Brown should run.

[ Parent ]
That's what I thought.
However, isn't Massachusetts Democratic enough to possibly pull Lynch over the finish line?

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
Probably, but
he'll have a hard time winning the primary.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Not after Markey gets done
bashing Lynch for wanting to "send woman back to the back alleys for coat hanger abortions" and voting with "the extreme right" on Terri Schiavo.  

[ Parent ]
I think you overestimate Lynch's appeal outside of Boston
Lynch losing will annoy his South Boston base certainly, but I don't see this becoming a cultural war unless its close, the prerequisite for that is for Lynch to both have money and to be viable in a two-man primary. Otherwise Markey just runs a very positive campaign. Its only in a genuinely competitive race that things turn very negative.

Also, abortion is unlikely to be a big issue, because bringing up abortion means that Markey is losing his base voters(ie. that there are diehard Pro-Choice voters who are for some reason or another voting for Lynch).

Basically wait and see. If this turns into a 65-32 Markey romp from the get-go, I doubt it gets very negative.  

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Lynch needs a couple more left-liberals in the race
There won't be any big establishment names, but a pair of candidates along the lines of Richard Reich or Alan Khazei (not those guys specifically, but their ilk) would give him a shot to win with 40% or so.

I can't see it happening, but a best-case map for Lynch looks like this: http://www.boston.com/news/pol...

Markey will be the nominee. The Mass Dems just about always get their anointed candidate through the primary.


[ Parent ]
That's how Lynch got to Congress
He only won 40% of the vote in the very low turnout Dem primary special election which occurred on Sept 11, 2001.  

[ Parent ]
That's True
But there was also another Conservadem Statee Senator in that primary, Marc Pacheco (D-Taunton).  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
NJ-In The Weeds
http://www.politickernj.com/62...

Franklin Mayor Levine is challenging Smith.  As we enter 2013, remember I calculated the Christie/Corzine/Daggett numbers for all districts here:

http://www.redracinghorses.com...

This seat would be a very tough one for the GOP, but getting strong candidates everywhere in a year when Christie could romp can't be a bad thing.


Dustin McDaniel out of AR-GOV
AP

26, Male, R, NY-10

And Halter is running
Woohoo!
http://www.arkansasbusiness.co...

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Recent news that McDaniel's law firm....
prosecuted a gun manufacturer back in 1998/1999.

Not gonna go well in Arkansas.


[ Parent ]
Baldacci in for Maine Governor
http://www.wcsh6.com/news/arti...

And we got our 3 way race.

27, R, PA-07.


Mark Pryor
You wrote: "AR-Sen: Need confirmation that Sen. Mark Pryor (D) is feeling the heat? Bill Clinton, who usually emerges after Labor Day to help Dems in tight races, is hitting the campaign trail for him. In March. Of 2013."

Well, of course his race is going to be a challenge, but the event in question is the Pryor campaign kick off fundraiser. It will feature David Pryor, Mike Beebe, Mike Ross, and Bill Clinton. Clinton has always been at the fundraising kick offs for Arkansas Democrats since he draws a lot of support. He did it for noncompetitive races like Beebe and Ross and Lincoln. Pryor is getting a slightly earlier start this year since he's likely to be a top.


Can Halter lose the Gov primary?
Is it time to move the race to safe R?  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Halter can lose GOV if Mike Ross runs
Ross running is the only way for Democrats to hold the seat in the general.

[ Parent ]
Very nice poll for Brown
Granted, his numbers in 2011 looked eerily similar. The key takeaway is that Markey is viewed below Generic D, which makes sense as Massachusetts voters will think of Elizabeth Warren and the Kennedys when presented with Generic D.  

[ Parent ]
Markey is...
...as abrasive a candidate as anyone I can think of.
Then again, so was Pocahontas Warren.

R/MA-9; hometown CT-2; lonely MSM conservative.

[ Parent ]
Reince Priebus on GOP's recent history on a national level.
"If we're being honest, we have not really won a decisive presidential election since 1988."

An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.

Agree
I don't think either party has won a decisive presidential election since 1988.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
2008?
Both 2008 and 2012 were pretty decisive, EV-wise, I dare say.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
2008 yes
2012 wasn't really decisive considering it was basically Obama doing 2008 again, only with smaller margins.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Still
Nearly 4% and nearly 5 Million votes is pretty decisive imo.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
By that standard,...
...2004 was pretty decisive too.

R/MA-9; hometown CT-2; lonely MSM conservative.

[ Parent ]
Not as
But yes.  

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
2004 was half that margin


(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
2008 almost has to be
The win was a bit more geographically limited, but the PV spread was almost identical to 1988.

To be honest I'd call 1996 one too. Even if the Perot votes split heavily toward Dole Clinton cruises by a lot. That said through either luck (as we'd say) or design (as they'd say) we haven't had particularly favorable political climates for us since 1988 either, at least in Presidential years.

Libertarian-R New MA-5.  


[ Parent ]
W was the guy to do it
I wonder how many electoral votes he would have gotten if he was up in 2002.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Probably between...
...350-390.

R/MA-9; hometown CT-2; lonely MSM conservative.

[ Parent ]
Boookerrr!
http://livewire.talkingpointsm...

At this point, I'm sure he had his political reasons...  

26, Male, R, NY-10


SnarkMode On
These things seem to happen a lot around Booker, don't they?

Good thing that he's trying to chase a fellow Dem out of town.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker


[ Parent ]
AK-Sen; only Parnell can save us from Joe Miller
http://www.nationalreview.com/...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Got me by 14 seconds! (nt)


33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
i mean
Miller wouldn't be my choice, but he did beat the Democrat last time.  Let's say Murkowski didn't run the write-in and just endorsed him, do we think he wouldn't be Senator Miller right now?  Probably would have been at least 60-40.  Begich won by a hair against someone that Alaskans were told was a convicted criminal.  It remains to be seen how he'll hold up in 2014.  I'd like to see some approvals.

[ Parent ]
Alaska polling
is nearly as bad as Hawaii, if I remember correctly.  Although 2008 and 2010 were both somewhat fluky races.

However, Begich has incumbency and incumbency matters more in Alaska than most other places.  I think Miller would beat Begich in an open seat race, but I'd expect a 51-44 loss or so should he be the nominee this time around.  Republicans don't need a perfect candidate to beat Begich but they need a decent one and Miller is not a decent candidate.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Dittman Polling was okay
In 2011, they found Murkowski with a 71/27 approval, Begich with a 57/33 approval, Don Young with a 63/32 approval and Joe Miller with a 18/73  approval.

In 2010, Dittman had Murokwski at 37, Miller at 27 and McAdams at 23. The end result was Murkowski 39, Miller 35, McAdams 23.  


[ Parent ]
Millers numbers are horrific and Begich's aren't
Miller would lose easily, we need Parnell otherwise this may be a replay of Tester in MT.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
not a great parallel
Rehberg, because of the MT GOP's weak bench, was actually your best candidate short of a multimillionaire who could self-fund and not have any gaffes.

Parnell is strong, but Treadwell doesn't seem bad either.  He just has to win the primary and it'll be a Tossup.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Wrong reason it's bad
Miller would be more like if we nominated Sharron Angle again for Senate last year.  Miller is probably one of the most despised politicians people in the entire state, and his sole accomplishment was being the only person who dared to challenge Murkowski in the primary in a year when Republicans were revolting against pork.

I do hope we can get Parnell in and make this (pretty) easy.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Tester was seen as someone that was vulnerable and should have lost
And Racicot was the top recruit that passed up before Rehberg got in.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Montana needs a top 2
Libertarians tend to screw us too much.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Also AZ and NV
We could have had a decent shot at AZ-1 and 9 in the top 2 system this year.  NV is heading CA way fast but I still think the infux of taxed refugees from CA and historical conservative nature of the state might keep it competitive for few cycles, any Libert.  vote is going to be most likely from R column.  

How can we restart the top 2 in AZ?  I know it did not get enough signatures last go around but core R voters need to be made aware of the benefits from it.

42, Hardcore R Except Abortion & Gay Marriage, CA-10


[ Parent ]
Top 2 in AZ
It was struck down in court, but later put on the ballot the state supreme court,then Voters rejected the initiative proposal in November.

It was rejected 67-33

http://ktar.com/22/1599885/Ari...

http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/in...

19, Republican, KS-03
Standing strong with Senator Roberts and Governor Brownback.


[ Parent ]
Can someone talk Miller into a primary vs Young?


[ Parent ]
AK-Sen: Joe Miller exploring another run
http://www.nationalreview.com/...

I wish Sean Parnell would just clear the field here.

33, R, IN-09


NJ-Sen; Lautenberg sounds willing to fight
@FrankLautenberg: Proud to be named new Chairman of powerful @SenateApprops Subcmte on #FinancialServices in #113Congress. http://t.co/O7KMH78X

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Pryor's kickoff
will feature the return of Dale Bumpers, who is 87 years old. Lots of politicos are trying to help him out it seems.  

Gubernatorial run?
I wonder if he would, if it gets too hostile at the federal level for red state Democrats? Same with Begich if Parnell runs for senate.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Not for Darr
Maybe if it was against Cotton or someone else, but I think Darr is the candidate that sends you to another race.

Parnell could do that in AK though.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat


[ Parent ]
Cryptic Tweet of the Day
"@ScottBrownMA Yes. Get ready"

No context.

MA-08  


Maybe he's a Temptations fan?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

...or perhaps Lynch's entry all but guarantees the gory Democratic primary Brown's probably deemed critical for a 2013 comeback.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
I don't think the primary will be gory
A three-way with Capuano (or another prominent liberal) would have been. But Markey should defeat Lynch pretty easily.

[ Parent ]
That's not the point
I think it is more about forcing Markey to exert himself and his $3.1 million warchest.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
I'm skeptical Markey-Lynch will prove a total blowout
I would agree Lynch is at an obvious disadvantage, given his pro-life stance and opposition to Obamacare, but I also think he's just too high-profile to not keep it reasonably close. In fact, I bet any polling on Markey-Lynch to come, in spite of the endorsements for the former, will basically show a tie, with a majority of Dems undecided. So long as Markey runs the "Lynch hates women" campaign we all anticipate, I'm sure he'll ultimately wind up the nominee, but it won't come easy. And I'm tempted to think Brown might actually maintain a comfortable edge in hypothetical head-to-heads right up through the special election. With Warren, there was actual enthusiasm. With Markey and Lynch, good luck turning out minorities and college students.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
The Congressional Delegation is Viewed as Largely Medicore
Frank(with a mixed higher profile) along with Tierney and Mcgovern(who both have solid regional bases) along with a lesser extent Lynch all stand out a bit. Tsongas is probably the most "impressive" of a fairly mediocre lot.

I think Lynch is making the same mistake Brown made in 2010, and pretty much most of the very traditionalist media establishment in Boston tends to make, underestimating how fast Massachusetts politics has shifted since 2003-2004. Probably no state outside of perhaps New Hampshire(and there it is partisan) has seen such a transformation at the state level. The Conservative wing of the Democratic party imploded since 2004, and while it has occasionally held its own inside leadership races(retaking the Speakership with DeLeo) there really is no "Conservadem" vote to the extent it existed even a decade ago. Guy Glodis checked all the right boxes and then imploded, winning 23% in the primary. Conservadems have struggled to be competitive even in their traditional strongholds, as can be seen in legislative primaries.

Brown's conservadem performance in 2010 had far more to do with Hillary voters, and their anger at Patrick/Obama than a pure ideological conservadem appeal. Abortion will only be introduced into the primary by Lynch - Markey has no reason to do so - no one knows who either of these people are, and the one sentence summaries will do it for them. Obamacare is a different issue, but thats a party loyalty issue, and that is what will be deadly.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Tsongas impressive?
There are times when I wonder if you have ever set foot in Massachusetts, and this is one of them.

You're right about the entire delegation being underwhelming, but Tsongas is at the top of that list, not the exception. Neal has seniority on Ways and Means. McGovern has a very strong local base and is notable for his Africa activism. JPK3 is a Kennedy. Markey has been around forever and is widely respected by liberals on global warming. Tierney pops up every now and again as a sponsor on major legislation. Capuano will always be significant because he represents Boston. Lynch is the last of his breed and notable because he's politically unique among the 9.

Only Keating is less notable than Tsongas. She's at least a woman.


[ Parent ]
Not sure where the Discrepancy is
And being vaguely more moderate than anyone else in delegation, and seeming to get into the news more often are what set her apart. I am not sure where the difference in our definitions came from. You put her at the top of that list, I suggested that provided some degree of separation.

I spent in total about 18 years in the state, so I would say I have seen quite a bit in it. I do tend to come from a perspective that is slightly more pessimistic generally on GOP chances, in the sense that what I have witnessed since about 2003 has been a steady, almost constant left-ward shift, that the major blips in the opposite direction, Hillary's victory in 2008, Brown's in the 2010 special, GOP gains in the state house in 2010, have generally done little to allay. Massachusetts is a far more liberal state in 2013 than it was in 2003, and it was a far more liberal state in 2003 than it was in 1993.

There are trends that help the GOP locally. The liberal tide in Democratic legislative primaries between 2003 and 2010 did over-reach, and the GOP legislative gains in 2010 tended to be in districts where liberals who had been a bad match had either unseated or replaced Conservadems in the aftermath of the Gay Marriage fight and then snuck through 2006 and 2008 on the back of good years. But the GOP utterly failed to break through or even reach mid-to late 1990s levels of performance in the Northshore or Middlesex county. And the state senate results in both 2010 and 2012 showed how localized those gains are. The GOP floor is consolidating. But so is the Democratic floor. And that floor is getting very close to 50%, as traditional swing voters within the state have drifted into straight ticket Democratic voters, not just in Federal races, but in statewide races as well.

Massachusetts is increasingly an inverse Georgia, in the sense that its political process has followed the opposite trajectory. There may be a few positive signs for the Democrats/Republicans occasionally, and there may future promise demographically, but the net effect of the changes over the past decade has been to make winning anything statewide a vastly harder task for the minority party than it was ten years ago.


27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Tsongas is NOT Impressive
Her husband was, I'll give you that much, but Niki Tsongas is a persistent underperformer.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
huh
I didn't realize that was a Temptations song before Rare Earth sang it.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Gaaah
That pains me inside. Rare Earth's version has to be one of the worst covers of all time IMO.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Perhaps he was talking to his daughter
Subsequent Tweet
Scott P. Brown ‏@ScottBrownMA
Heading to see Ayla@AylaBrown perform at her second sold out show. Glad she does not askMom and Dad for money. Finally!!!!

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Republicans score another victory at Nationals Park
http://curlyw.mlblogs.com/2013...

The Nationals will announce William Howard Taft - aka "Bill" - as the fifth Racing President Saturday afternoon at NatsFest.

The choice is a curious one. Taft is fairly obscure and he's also a Republican. They currently the Mount Rushmore 4: George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Thomas Jefferson, and Theodore Roosevelt. That's two Republicans, one President who wasn't in a political party, and Jefferson. Jefferson pre-dates Andrew Jackson's modern Democratic party. So he doesn't fit in exactly as a Democrat. You'd think they'd go with FDR or JFK.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Taft
That's a really svelte caricature of our chubbiest president and chief justice of the Supreme Court. The real Taft looked somewhat more like a handlebar mustache on a beach ball, at least while he was in office.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Did he have issues with a bathtub?
He does serve as a basis for Christie claiming being fat is not an issue.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
yeah, he had to be taken out with a crane I believe
unless that part is folklore.  Grover Cleveland was also quite rotund.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
West transfers campaign funds to Non-profit
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

Clearly not thinking of running again. There are other former congressmen who have campaign funds going back years, just in case.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


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