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Weekend Open Thread and Questions

by: BostonPatriot

Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 21:42:39 PM EST


1. Could Paul Broun win a Republican Senate primary in Georgia? What about a general, assuming he has a strong opponent?

2. What House retirements are you expecting this cycle?

BostonPatriot :: Weekend Open Thread and Questions
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1. Yes and yes.  But I don't think he will win the primary, should he run.  Remember, he had a big upset to get elected to the House in the first place, coming from way down in Round One of the special election.

2. Not many.  I wouldn't expect more than a dozen considering all the recent turnover and the fact that few representatives will be running for higher office.  However, with the advanced age of so many CBC members, I'd expect at least a couple of them to hang it up.  In California, I don't see any as too likely, but Mike Honda is probably number one on the watchlist.  

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


answers
#1 I don't know about the primary, but simply having an R by your name makes you a favorite in the general election in Georgia; especially in a non-presidential election.

#2 I'm thinking that Graves (MO-06) might run for Governor, but that's not until 2016. Wagner (MO-02) may be interested in a promotion to Senate, but Blunt is probably running for re-election in 2016, so Wagner needs to wait until 2018.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


McCaskill
Do you think she runs in 2018? If she had faced a decent GOP candidate in 2012, how do you think she would have fared?

[ Parent ]
answers
McCaskill: Unlikely to retire from politics by then. She may run for Governor in 2016, and if she wins that she resigns; Nixon might not get around to appointing anyone so that she could appoint Nixon.
But if she either loses for Governor or doesn't run at all she probably runs in 2018.

As to 2012, if Akin hadn't made his remark; she would have lost even to him.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Answers
1. Yes, and maybe depending on whether he goes full Akin.
2. Bill Young finally retires. I could see Collin Peterson retiring this cycle. Maybe Frank Wolf or Howard Coble? I think Peter DeFazio will retire in the next few cycles, but probably waits for 2016.  

Mainstream Dem.  

Answers
1a. Sure, why not? Paul Broun is hardly out of sync with GOP primary voters in Georgia. I mean, this is a primary electorate that was restless with a senator who is tied for #1 most conservative and who votes with fellow Republicans 100% of the time.

1b. If it's Broun against a strong Democratic opponent, I would rate it as Tilt D at the opening gate. Some people seem to be getting Georgia mixed up with Alabama. Georgia isn't Alabama.

2. I haven't given it much thought, but I guess the usual suspects come to mind: Howard Coble (NC-06), Bill Young (FL-13), Charlie Rangel (NY-13), Louise Slaughter (NY-25). Ironically, I think the two oldest members (Ralph Hall & John Dingell) won't leave until they're carried out..

Democrat, NC-11


Not sure about the latter
I'm not quite convinced Broun can survive a run-off. If he were able to squeak by in a crowded primary with 40 percent, maybe, but I think it's an uphill climb against anybody competent. As for a general with Broun, I'd label it Lean R with a generic D, but I have no doubt the congressman could completely screw it up.

Why exactly would anyone want to run this guy when there are at least half a dozen superior potential candidates in Georgia, all of who will probably vote R 95+ percent of the time?  

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


Questions
1. I think Broun could win a primary but it would be very unlikely because he's too controversial, better candidates are bound to run, and Georgia has runoffs. I would be surprised if the GOP nominee isn't either Price, Handel, or Kingston. All of those candidates would have establishment support in a primary and Broun greatly lacks that. He could win a general election. I would have said that would be a likelihood but with the situations in Indiana and Missouri in 2012, I think there is a significant chance that Broun could lose. He'd still have the GOP brand in a midterm election as a plus for him but he's known as controversial and he might make Akinesque type gaffes during the campaign.

2. I know one I'm definitely expecting. That is Howard Coble in NC-6. I've heard that he is almost definitely going to retire. Coble surprised people by not retiring last cycle. He is up in age, he has a significantly different district due to redistricting, and Phil Berger, Jr. is seen as wanting to run and I think Coble is fine with Berger, Jr. succeeding him in office. With Berger, Jr.'s position as a district attorney in the geographic center of the district along with his father, Phil Berger, Sr., holding the influential position as the leader of the North Carolina State Senate, I think Berger, Jr. is the favorite to win the seat.  


Agreed
Coble is an almost certain retirement. In addition to his age and new district, he is not healthy. Also agreed on Berger Jr., although I expect a few of the usual crowd of NCGOP perpetual candidates to jump in (Nathan Tabor and Vernon Robinson come immediately to mind. Maybe a state legislator or two considering that this seat is safe R for the forseeable future.  

24/M/Republican/Law Student/NC-13

[ Parent ]
Tabor
Do you think he runs for it in 2014? I know he's ambitious but I don't think he lives in the district. He was recently the Forsyth County Republican Party Chairman and Forsyth is in the 5th and 12th districts.

[ Parent ]
Rob McKenna on running again
http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2013/01/25/friday-politics-rob-mckenna-and-whats-next/

"McKenna wouldn’t say if he would run again in 2016. He only mentioned the things candidates have to give up, how long they have to run (almost two years for such a post) and then never said never."

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

In hindsight he should have ran against Murray in 2010
He would have over performed Rossi by a few points and it would have made the difference.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
I dont know...
I think the reality is republicans have hard time to hit 50% in Washington state...Dino Rossi was actually considered a dream candidate for US senate when entered in the race...and of course Mckenna was a dream candidate in 2012 for the governor race...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
I don't think
McKenna was going to beat Murray.  He could have made it 51/49 Murray though.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Of course a rain god would run in Washington.
If you get that reference, you deserve many kudos.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college), MS-03 (weekend)

[ Parent ]
hah
I remember bringing that up on DKE when McKenna first announced.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Sen Harkin to Retire
Just told AP in interview.

21, Thatcherite,

Great news!!!! Kim Reynolds please run!!!!
@HotlineJosh: RT @breakingpol: Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin says he will not seek re-election in 2014 - @AP http://t.co/lMqA824C

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Good Pick Up Opportunity
Unless of course Steve King is the Nominee...

19, Republican, KS-03
Standing strong with Senator Roberts and Governor Brownback.


[ Parent ]
They need to do whatever they can to not get him to run
A better committee, fundraisers, massages, whatever. And as much as I liked Latham he needs to hold his house seat, as he's in his 60s and may not have a long future ahead of him in congress.

Reynolds may have national potential one day, and could play up the Iowa's never had a female in the senate card against Braley. Plus without a voting record and Brandstad at the top of the ticket, she could do wonders.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Kim Reynolds?!
Why her? It's clear as day that Tom Latham is the strongest of our candidates.

[ Parent ]
Really?
Latham is 65 and has an extensive voting record. Yes, he's represented probably close to 50% of the state, but none of his opponents were as talented as Braley. Reynolds is telegenic, articulate, and has a lot of charisma (something Latham lacks by the way). Now, I would be happy with Latham as well, but the potential with Reynolds is through the roof.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Umm...
How do you think Latham beat Leonard Boswell by 8 points when Obama was winning the district by 4 points? Latham must have had some charisma...

[ Parent ]
Boswell was a walking corpse
Just showing any sign of life was going to work well for Latham, along with being the serious, reasonable pol that he is.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Latham has overperformed throughout his career
He's the safest nominee and probably the one who could keep King out of the race. (King owes him for running for IA-03 instead of IA-04 this year.)

[ Parent ]
Not worried about Reynolds & the bottle
Mind you I'd vote for her; but her old DUI's aren't a plus  

[ Parent ]
!!
The failure of filibuster reform probably had something to do with this.

Who steps up from either side? Braley from the Dems seems like a prospect since he has been talking about moving up to higher office in the context of a Gov run. For us? I'm terrified of the idea, but isn't King likely to get in now? Better candidates are Latham and Branstad obviously

24/M/Republican/Law Student/NC-13


[ Parent ]
Kim Reynolds
Call your office.

21, Thatcherite,

[ Parent ]
Looks promising
Does she have the charisma/speaking ability for a major run like this? I genuinely don't know anything about her apart from being LG.  

24/M/Republican/Law Student/NC-13

[ Parent ]
Did you watch the convention on cspan?
She's got star written all over her.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Latham can win this seat for team red! Great news!


38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
He turns 65 this year and is close with Boehner
I doubt he runs. And be shouldn't as it will open up one of our toughest seats to hold. Kim Reynolds has the best potential and would fit in either a good or bad cycle for us.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Wow
And Johnson likely to retire too, 6 Seats is a lot for the GOP to need to win the Senate, but the chips are certainly falling for them to have the opportunity.

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
FP'ed
Please move discussion there.

[ Parent ]
Braley vs. King
Calling it now!

Mainstream Dem.  

Seems like the most likely matchup.


I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
3/4 of Iowa's House delegation could run.
Although I tend to agree that Latham won't run. It'll be a primary between King and Reynolds and King will win.

Mainstream Dem.  

[ Parent ]
latham
Latham is our best candidate. King would be a disaster.  

[ Parent ]
And if King doesn't run, Van der Plaats will.


Mainstream Dem.  

[ Parent ]
FP'ed
Please move discussion there.

[ Parent ]
Answers.
1) Yes and Yes.

2) Of the two states I follow the most, Pennsylvania and Michigan, I suspect Michigan has the better chance of having retirements simply because the state has three members over 80 while Pennsylvania has only one over 70.  

28, Republican, PA-6


Handel & DeLauro
Broun won't beat an ATL based candidate in the runoff; national party won't allow more Akins

DeLauro will leave CT03 for TKIII  


[ Parent ]
Some new Sabato rankings...
Georgia - Likely R
Iowa - toss-up
Massachusetts - toss-up (if Brown runs)
West Virginia - Lean R

https://twitter.com/LarrySabat...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


Brown won't run.
Agree on Georgia.

Iowa and WVA depend on the candidates. Is it Latham vs. Braley or King vs. Braley?

Is it Capito vs. some dude or Tennant vs. Raese?

Mainstream Dem.  


[ Parent ]
I highly doubt Raese will run for anything again.
He lost twice in a row, and he's no Rossi, imo.  

22, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) Matt 6:25-34    

[ Parent ]
He's lost 5 times in a row
But, from a source that knows him personally, I can confirm he is saying he's done with politics.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Politico's Mike Allen thinks both Brown and Weld will pass on MA-Sen
The takeaways from his (not-necessarily-so-great) reporting...

- Lynch isn't 100 percent committed to running
- Brown might be eying private sector options instead
- If Brown does run and win, Mass Dems think Kennedy will be his opponent in 2014
- Brown hasn't done anything in the way of political activities or fundraising since November
- Weld allies say it's "highly unlikely" he'll run
- Healey hasn't ruled out entering if Brown and Weld pass

http://www.politico.com/playbo...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


On Georgia...
One name that hasn't been mentioned much on here is AG Sam Ohlens. At 55, he's definitely young enough, and has a statewide profile plus a base in ATL. Does anyone who knows Georgia politics have an assessment on whether he'll run, and whether it would be good or bad?

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
The reports I've read from AJC is that he wants to run for governor in 2018, same with the other statewide office holders


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
AR-SEN: National Republicans want Cotton to run
Most of them appear to have just shrugged off Darr and really want Cotton to run. He'd be a much stronger candidate to challenge Pryor.

http://www.nationaljournal.com...


Random Question
When is the last time that a moderate primary challenger defeated a more conservative Republican incumbent for a major office?  Fred Upton did it in 1986.  New Hampshire Senate 2002 is arguable, but I wouldn't count it.

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton

Arguably IA-Gov in 2010
Although Vander Plaats was such a huge underdog to Branstad that it's not really a fair comparison.

[ Parent ]
Whoops, I missed the word "incumbent"
That would eliminate Ayotte's victory over Lamontagne as well.

In the House, it may have been Michael Huffington over Bob Lagomarsino in what is now Lois Capps' coastal CA seat.


[ Parent ]
Does Sandoval unseating Gibbons count?


24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
not sure
I think that ethics were the main issue in that race.  Was Sandoval more moderate?

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton

[ Parent ]
One of the weirdest examples of that
Was ND-Sen in 1940 - where a more left-of-center R defeated a left-of-center R.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Moderate v. Conservative
Neither John McCain nor Carly Fiorina were the most conservative candidate in their 2010 primary. Arlen Specter defeated Pat Toomey in 2004. Tommy Thompson was a moderate in the 2012 Senate primary.  Of course, all of them had the most money/name recognition, which may be most important.

In the 2012 Missouri and Nebraska the candidates supported by the Tea Party lost.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Fiorina
Sure, she was a moderate on some issues, but she was well to the right of Campbell, the initial front-runner. DeVore was basically a non-starter from beginning to end.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Sometimes the conservative doesn't catch fire
Conservatives activists I know were big DeVore backers. Mark Neumann was the conservative pick in the Wisconsin senate race.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
another conservative who didn't catch fire
the guy who challenged Mark Kirk.  Hughes I think?  Or Debra Medina in TX.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Nebraska doesn't really fit
All 3 major candidates could claim some "Tea Party"-type support. Bruning had the endorsement of the Tea Party Express, Stenberg had the support of most of the national conservative establishment, and Fischer had the support of Sarah Palin. All 3 ran as conservatives and there really was no moderate in the race.  

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
Incumbency
I should add that the conservative being an incumbent is essential to my question.  I can cite loads of examples of conservatives losing open seat primaries or losing challenges against moderate incumbents.  But a moderate beating a conservative incumbent seems to be very rare.  If the conservative is an incumbent, the moderate can't really argue that the conservative is unelectable.

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton

[ Parent ]
Jean Schmidt?
Even though Brad Wenstrup had Tea Party support, I would call him the more moderate candidate.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Why?
He's not really moderate on anything.

[ Parent ]
Wenstrup
I guess is he a moderate or just more moderate than Schmidt.  I don't think he is a true moderate, but just more so than Schmidt, who was a serious birther.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Let's not imitate the mainstream media...
...by equating "conservative" and "crazy".  

[ Parent ]
Ok, fair enough
I retract my comment.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
+1
He's not necessarily less conservative, he's more reasonable. Birtherism was purely illogical and unreasonable.

[ Parent ]
Cuccinelli unleashes his inner Booker...
Artur Davis for... State Senate?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

I don't think the House will pass it. If they do, I think Governor McDonnel will veto it. If he doesn't, I think the Justice Department will sue to block it.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


UT-4; It seems like Love is running again!
http://mobile.nationaljournal....

I'm excited, even though some of you won't be, lol.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


NY-24; Buerkle considering a rematch
http://capitaltonightny.ynn.co...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

NY-24
Doesn't AMB have anything better to do? Seriously, she should go join a conservative advocacy group or something. She'd be great at it.

However, a D+5 district that trended left (it was D+4 in 2008 and D+6 in 2012) really is not the place for an 100% pure conservative to run for Congress. If she really wanted to stay in Congress, she'd have found some way to run for NY-27. She couldn't even win NY-24 with a Green Party candidate taking away a huge amount of votes from a perennial underperformer in Dan Maffei.

Frankly, I think Jim Walsh would have probably lost the district at some point. As the Syracuse area grows in population relative to the district and as its influence in the district grows, NY-24 will just become more and more untenable for Republicans.


[ Parent ]
Don't be so negative
If this district is moving to the Left so rapidly and is out of reach for even a moderate like Walsh, why wouldn't we want a former Congresswoman, who's proven she's won before, run for us in 2014? It's either that or Maffei gets a free ride from a nobody.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Most of the damage here was done already
The City of Syracuse once was politically competitive; now it's one party D. Blue collar Catholic conservatives can only move away once.  

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Buerkle's as good as it gets in this one. Sure, she'd begin the race an underdog and it probably would be a Lean D affair in the end, but there's no way Maffei would stage a blowout. In a midterm, she's probably guaranteed 45 percent. Throw in that same Green candidate from last year and she's just a few points from the finish line.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Mahoney is as good as it gets here
She makes it Lean R. But I doubt she'd win a contested primary.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Mahoney
Hmm... wasn't that the logic with Maggie Brooks, too? That seat was D+8 in 2012 and Brooks lost by 14. Brooks represents the entire district as County Exec, unlike Mahoney with NY-24.

[ Parent ]
Mahoney is a good deal left of Brooks
Maffei is a weaker candidate than Slaughter, and 2014 will be better for minority/college turnout.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
A NY-24 rematch
The problem with a Buerkle bid is that her status as a darling to conservative groups in DC would potentially mean a whole lot of money would be sent to her race instead of races in districts that are clearly more competitive. I was the most vocal booster around here of Andrew Roraback and Richard Tisei's bids for CT-05 and MA-06 respectively but those seats voted D+2 and D+4 to the national average respectively in 2012. Winning in a D+6  district is a whole different animal, especially with the profile of a firebrand and not a Walsh style moderate.

In theory, I'd be fine with a Buerkle bid so long as she doesn't steal a single dollar away from races that are in districts that are clearly more winnable. In practice, she absolutely would and is 99% likely to lose a bid for an even bluer district than she shocked the world by winning in 2014. The Rochester suburbs in the old NY-25 carried her home and that slice of Monroe County is no longer in the seat.


[ Parent ]
Buerkle could make it intesteresting in 2014
She lost by 12k or 4% overall in 2012.

In 2010, she lost Onondaga 76 to 65.5k.
In 2012, she lost Onondaga 96 to 73.5k.
The Presidential turnout in Onondaga was the difference in 2012.

Maffei will be the incumbent again in 2014, so that will make things harder, but with a non-Presidential turnout, she had the numbers in 2012 to win. She killed it yet again in Wayne, and really overperformed in her childhood county of Cayuga, improving on 2010 Republican performance in the county by 3,000 votes, while Maffei only outperformed the Democratic performance by 1,000 votes. Most of the county was previously in Hanna's district.

Where she really needs to work harder is Oswego. Maffei carried it narrowly.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
She lost by 5.5 in a district Mitt lost by 16
That puts her 65th out of 390 Republican candidates in districts where a Republican and Democrat both ran. Yes, she was an incumbent, but so were another 150+ Republicans that she did better than. We could do far worse in this district.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Sorry those were the election night returns!
Stretched out to 15k in the end, still the result change was all from Onondaga.

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Buerkle also expands their playing field, defensively
It would certainly be Lean D at best, but it would be one more nuisance for Israel to have to deal with on his road to 17. As the DCCC, the last thing you want to do is spend money on an incumbent in a district Obama won by double digits. If Buerkle can work the local circuit and the pro-life groups for money and keep it close, this becomes a net drain on cash for Dems.  

[ Parent ]
The key here is for Republicans to get
a Green Party nominee here as well.  

[ Parent ]
Losing candidates running again
Bob Dold lost by one point in a seat that was equally as Democratic as NY-24 without a Green Party spoiler.

Richard Tisei lost by one point in a seat that was, admittedly, two points more Republican but he was not an incumbent.

Why is there not this level of enthusiasm from any of you for rematches in either of those two races?

Point is, generally speaking, D+3 or worse seats are just a bridge too far. I tend to think both Dold and Tisei have better chances than Buerkle does.


[ Parent ]
Upstate NY still has lots of GOP DNA
I'm not eager on bailing on such seats; this isn't the Albany or Buffalo seats where the down ballot history is strongly Democrat  

[ Parent ]
Yeah
I'm not advocating going after Tonko. I'm advocating Bob Dold making one final push for IL-10 in a midterm with a freshman incumbent in the seat who way underperformed Obama and is known to be rather lazy and complacent.

[ Parent ]
Mind you
Lake County, IL has as much "GOP DNA" as NY-25 does and Bob Dold did way better than Buerkle did without a Green Party spoiler running.

[ Parent ]
Who cares?
She wants to run and gives us our best shot. I hope both Dold and Tisei run too, as they both ran well ahead of Mitt.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I have no problem with Dold or Tisei running again
I think it's a huge straw man to say that there's less enthusiasm for them; this subthread is about Buerkle and the news that she might run again. I think some people (not including me) might be Tisei'ed out because of the amount of airplay you've given him here.

Any race where a strong Republican can raise enough cash on their own to make an incumbent Democrat sweat is a race worth pursuing in my book.


[ Parent ]
Fair enough
I was suspicious that she's getting more attention because she's a "better conservative" or whatever, was wondering if that would be the response and it seems not to be.

[ Parent ]
While we're on the topic of NY rematches...
Nan Hayworth's been keeping an extremely active Facebook presence, and has continued to "sponsor" her posts. I have no doubt she's gearing up to take on Sean Patrick Maloney in 2014.

What does the RRH community think of giving Nan Hayworth another chance? Of all of our incumbents that lost, Hayworth was probably my very favorite. I'm all for giving her another shot.


[ Parent ]
I'd give Nanworth another shot
That district is about as swingy as they come and they've tossed out 3 incumbents in the last 4 elections. The local bench there seems to be just OK. Hayworth might be our best candidate.

[ Parent ]
We need more Conservative MD's in the House
Naturally, I also respect anyone smart enough to go into Ophthalmology. But then again she also went to Princeton and Cornell Med....

I was devastated that she lost to Maloney.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Hayworth
As the son of physicians, that loss really stung me. Her pedigree was impressive and she was smart, articulate, conservative, and I thought she was the perfect spokeswoman for Republicans to reach out to moderate suburban women. I fully agree that we need more conservatives with an MD, a DO, or a DDS in Congress.

On that note, heh, my father has disdain for the "fake medical field of podiatry," but I still like what Brad Wenstrup brings to the table. Would you consider him an addition to the physician count in the House?


[ Parent ]
Sandy happened
Remember her reticence on Irene aid? Power boats washed up
on the train tracks do tend to remind folks of prior disaster issues  

[ Parent ]
she really hurt
She was the only person I could think that would be able to run statewide and be attractive.  I really like her too she very intelligent.

[ Parent ]
NYGOP Statewide candidates
The best one by far is Rob Astorino, though I do agree Hayworth could win statewide under the right circumstances.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Color me skeptical
If Wilson and Donovan couldn't defeat DiNapoli and Schneiderman in a GOP-leaning midterm cycle, I have my doubts any Republican will be winning statewide in New York anytime soon.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
+1
Harry Wilson was the tailor-made candidate for running statewide as a Republican. He was well funded, had all of the necessary endorsements, and he still lost. That race hurt.

[ Parent ]
Wilson was not well funded
I live in NYC and saw nothing for him.  Not one ad.  I agree NY has no Republican winning any time.  Rudy couldn't win anything.

Donovan had same issue.  I saw no ads or nothing for him in city.  


[ Parent ]
Absolutely
I come from a medical family with suspicions regarding Podiatry as well, yet we need all the help we can get, especially from the Republican side.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Hayworth is the sole loss that surprised me
Given the history of upstate New York, for a long time now, she shouldn't have lost based on the fundamentals.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
RRR
I'm all for re-running candidates. If Dold, Tisei, or Buerkle don't stand up and challenge these Democratic Rep's again, there is likely no one better that is going to do it. Hell, I'd be for Joe Walsh giving it another go. Who's going to challenge Duckworth in 2014? We need to expand the map.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Walsh
He deserves some credit for running 4 points ahead of Romney in a district that was mostly new to him. It was also Obama's weakest district of the 4 we lost this year (although in a stroke of gerrymandering genius, he got between 57.4-57.8 in all four of them!) But he has so much more baggage than Buerkle; I wonder if there's someone else who could give Duckworth a scare.

[ Parent ]
Not quite
IL-10 was weaker for Obama... by .05%! Damn, did the Dems draw an evil, evil map... When Brady lost on election night, my first thought was "oh my, Dems have the trifecta. Our Congressmen are screwed." Oh, how right I was... :(  

[ Parent ]
Duckworth
"Who's going to challenge Duckworth in 2014?"

As much as it pains me to say it, with the way that district is trending demographically and politically, I'm not sure anyone other than Joe Walsh could make Duckworth need to spend any real money in 2014 (or beyond).

While Joe Walsh is probably the only one who could make her spend, would it be worth it to have him running his mouth off while some other Republican is trying to win a contentious gubernatorial race that is only winnable in the right circumstances? One particularly unfortunate comment from Walsh while running against Duckworth could have serious ramifications for the GOP ticket in IL in 2014.

We'd be best off with him hosting a conservative talk show on the radio and not running for office.


[ Parent ]
Options
Talk Show>Running for IL-8>Running for Statewide Office

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Walsh
I could see him as a very good talk show host. Salem is apparently very interested in him.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Joe Walsh
That's great; I really hope he gets a show. Joe's articulate, funny, and personable. He's also pretty well versed on the issues. I like him a lot in person but he just has horrible foot in mouth disease as a candidate. He couldn't hurt IL GOP candidates from the radio.

[ Parent ]
How much of Ursula Rozum's support would have gone
to Ann Marie Buerkle? To Dan Maffei?

[ Parent ]
Impossible to say
Some third party votes are ideological while others are protest votes. Some people don't know or don't care who the third party candidate is, they just don't want to vote for either of the major party candidates. Washington's top two has shown that the percentages in the primary are very close to the general election when there are no third party candidates. When there is, however, the third party votes sometimes go heavily to one candidate, even if the ideology isn't the same.

She likely took more votes from Maffei but don't assume it's even 80%.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Buerkle v Romney
Buerkle may have lost by 5.5, but she only got to 43.3% in a district Romney got to 41.87% in. That's really not a sign of strength.

Unless a strong Green Party nominee runs again and sucks up a ton of Maffei's support, Syracuse University kids and minorities staying home in 2014 won't come close to making the district winnable for Buerkle. Even if a Green Party candidate does run, Maffei will have represented similar district/this version of the district for two terms.

Maffei is inoffensive and intelligent, although he's boring (and wrong on almost everything). There's just no reason he'll keep on having the electability issues he had when he ran for the seat in the first place and then lost the seat to Buerkle as a freshman in an upset.


[ Parent ]
She should run against Hanna in the primary


MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton

[ Parent ]
FL-Gov: Former Miami mayor Manny Diaz considering
http://www.miamiherald.com/201...

If he wins the Dem primary, I think he would be a strong candidate against any Republican. Incidentally, like former Gov. Charlie Crist, Diaz is a former independent who switched to the Dem party.

I'm hoping that a Cuban Republican will primary Scott for governor, preferrably Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart or Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.  


I agree Diaz might be unstoppable in a general election
I'm a little skeptical, however, he could trump Crist in a primary. I suspect the latter will have a hefty fundraising advantage and possibly Obama's endorsement.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
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