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Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

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RRH's 2014 General Election Preview Series:

Part 7 - Senate

Part 6 - Eastern Governors

Part 5 - Western Governors

Part 4 - Northeast/South House

Part 3 - Midwest/West House

Part 2 - Row Officers

Part 1 - Legislatures and Local

The Current RRH Race Ratings:

Senate

Governor

House

Row Officers


Mega-Roundup for January 28, 2012

by: shamlet

Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 07:00:00 AM EST


I don't know if this is the longest roundup ever posted on this site, but it sure comes close. I had the pleasure of taking a trip to WV-3 last week... and then returning to find the political world turned upside down with two Senate retirements, three new gubernatorial candidates, and enough Tea Leaves to caffeinate Boston Harbor. Let's sort out today's giant slug of news:

Senate:

WV-Sen: After some brief posturing towards a primary challenge, Rep. David McKinley (R) seems to be much more at ease with supporting fellow Rep. Shelley Moore Capito for the Senate seat. McKinley is careful to say he is not officially endorsing Capito, but says that it's unlikely he would not eventually back her. I can also report (from personal sources) that John Raese has been telling those around him that he is not interested in re-entering politics with a primary challenge to Capito.

GA-Sen: Conventional wisdom on this race. Rep. Tom Price looks like the early front-runner.

More GA-Sen: Rep. John Barrow and Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed, Dems' two strongest possible candidates, are both noncomittal on a Senate bid and both sound like they're leaning against a run.

IA-Sen: Conventional wisdom on the wide-open field. Rep. Bruce Braley will likely have the D nomination if he wants it. Republicans' picture is much more muddled, but most insiders want Rep. Tom Latham.

More IA-Sen: Braley confirms his interest. State Sen. Brad Zaun (R), a weak candidate who lost to Boswell in 2010, is also interested.

MA-Sen: Rep. Stephen Lynch (D) may or may not be running against Ed Markey in the Senate special primary. After news reports leaked Friday that Lynch would indeed run, the congressman pushed back, saying he has not made a decision. While Lynch would be the distinct primary underdog due to his relative social conservatism, he may have Menino's Boston machine behind him.

More MA-Sen: A new MassInc poll shows Scott Brown in commanding position if he runs again in the special.

AK-Sen: Joe Miller, the spectacularly bad candidate who beat Lisa Murkowski in the 2010 Republican Primary before losing to her in the general, is looking to try again in 2014 against Sen. Mark Begich (D). Miller met with Murkowski and NRSC chair Jerry Moran last week; here's hoping they did not offer him any encouragement as Miller is probably the only Republican nominee that could guarantee Begich's re-election.

IL-Sen: Sen. Dick Durbin (D) says he will announce in the next few weeks whether he'll seek re-election. I'm betting on retirement but so far I've been in the minority. The article speculates LG Sheila Simon as a potential replacement, though I think more realistic Dem options than the uncharismatic and Quinn-tied Simon are Cook Board Pres. Toni Preckwinckle and Reps. Tammy Duckworth, Mike Quigley, and Jan Schakowsky. 

CO-Sen: Rep. Mike Coffman (R) says he's officially not interested in a challenge to Udall. Fellow R Rep. Cory Gardner is in no hurry to make a decision.

AR-Sen: Freshman Rep. Tom Cotton (R) continues to be talked about as a prospective candidate for this race, even though LG Mark Darr is putting out feelers for a run. Cotton recieved rockstar treatment at this week's National Review conference in DC.

NJ-Sen '18: You may recall that Sen. Bob Menendez (D) made it into our "Turkey of the Year" awards for patronizing Caribbean hookers and skipping out on the bill. Now the FBI is investigating him for breaking ethics rules and campaign finance laws in the course of his trips.

Governor:

AR-Gov: After news of an affair left his campaign more-or-less fatally damaged, AG Dustin McDaniel (D) has left the Governor's race. McDaniel was initially thought to be a strong candidate but probably could not have even won the D primary now. McDaniel all but admits that his low chance of winning post-scandal is what's forcing him out of the race.

More AR-Gov: Immediately jumping in to replace McDaniel on the D side in this race is ex-LG Bill Halter, best known for primarying Sen. Blanche Lincoln in 2010. Halter looks like Dems' new consensus choice at this point, though he may draw a challenge in the primary from Beebe admin transportation official John Burkhalter.

ME-Gov: Elliot Cutler (I) has started raising money for a rematch with Gov. Paul LePage (R) in 2014. Seeing as a 3-way race is the only way Republicans hold this seat, and ex-Gov John Baldacci (D) is all but in, this is supremely good news.

AZ-Gov: Democrats have their first serious candidate here, as former Babbitt admin official and natural gas company executive Fred DuVal has filed to run. DuVal looks like a decent "B" team recruit for Democrats, but would likely be an underdog to 2012 Senate nominee Richard Carmona in the primary, should the latter run. SoS Ken Bennett is the lone declared candidate on the R side, but both primary fields are expected to grow for the seat of probably-term-limited Jan Brewer.

NJ-Gov: In something of a surprise, State Sen. Richard Codey (D-Verona) has declined to mount a bid for Governor. It appears that Senate Pres. Steve Sweeney (D-West Deptford) is the only remaining name considering challenging State Sen. Barbara Buono of Metuchen for the not-all-that-valuable D nomination against Christie.

NH-Gov: Former State Rep. Kevin Smith (R), who lost to Ovide Lamontagne in the 2012 primary, is already looking towards a repeat bid in 2014 against new Gov. Maggie Hassan (D). With Hassan just taking office, this race is nearly impossible to handicap.

FL-Gov: Former Miami Mayor Manny Diaz is moving forward with plans to take on Charlie Crist in the D primary. Diaz has been lining up support from financiers and strategists and would start with a decent network of support in Dade County. Diaz is unlikely to get a one-on-one shot at Crist in the primary though, as State Sen. Nan Rich of Weston is running and 2010 nominee Alex Sink is still considering a bid.

VA-Gov: National Journal and Politifact take a look at former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe's somewhat strained relationship with telling the truth. With McAuliffe already widely known as the slickest guy in the room, caricaturing him as a typical politician is probably a potent line of attack here.

IL-Gov: Hideously unpopular Gov. Pat Quinn (D) already cheated political death once, and he seems like he's gearing up to poke the tiger in the eye once again, unloading on AG (and now prospective primary challenger) Lisa Madigan over her relationship with her father, Pharoh -er, I mean Speaker, of the State House Mike Madigan. For his part, Mike Madigan says he has no intention of retiring. Everyone assumes Lisa is unbeatable for any office she wants, but with this big issue hanging over her - combined with relatively tepid recent poll numbers on her from PPP - I'm not so sure.

CA-Gov: Bush 43 Treasury official Neel Kashkari (R) is considering tackling the thankless task of running for Governor in 2014.

More CA-Gov: (Link in Spanish) There are very thin tea leaves that outgoing Sec. of Labor Hilda Solis might be interested. Solis has been more often connected with a bid for the LA County Board of Supervisors, but this is the first indication she may be interested in a bid for something bigger, either against Jerry Brown or for an open seat.

CO-Gov, CO-SoS: Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) is not looking terribly vulnerable in 2014. One potential R candidate, SoS Scott Gessler, has ruled himself out and has measured praise for Hickenlooper. Gessler's decision is just as well for Republicans as he has ethics issues that make him a weak candidate. Gessler says he will run for re-election but is sure to face a tough general election at a minimum.  

House:

IL-2: What could be stranger than a white former congresswoman winning a Dem primary for a seat on Chicago's South Side? A white, pro-gun former congresswoman winning a seat in arguably the nation's biggest gun control stronghold. But right now Debbie Halvorson seems poised to make that happen. And amazingly enough, the candidate two polls agree is running second in the race (see below), State Sen. Toi Hutchinson (D-Olympia Fields), has been generally pro-gun herself. I have to think that a rush to the left on guns by Black Ds is only another blessing for Halvorson here, as pro-gun Dems can probably comprise the 25-30% or so of the primary electorate she needs to win.

More IL-2: Two polls in this D primary race confirm the conventional wisdom: Halvorson is leading due to splitting of the black vote, and her two most serious black opponents are State Sen. Toi Hutchinson and 2010 Treasurer nominee Robin Kelly of Matteson. Hutchinson's internal poll shows her in an unambiguous second place and Kelly in third, while Kelly's shows the two in a tossup for second. The race for second is crucial for momentum building; Halvorson will win due to vote splitting unless one black candidate gains significant momentum over the others.

UT-4: Mia Love (R) is open to a rematch with Rep. Jim Matheson.

NY-24: Ex-Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle (R) sounds a similar note with regards to a third bout with Dan Maffei.

CA-31: Redlands mayor Pete Aguilar (D), fresh off being embarrased by fumbling a house seat that was his for the taking in 2012 (due to a fluke double-Republican primary win) is thinking about a rematch against the house's most vulnerable member, Rep. Gary Miller (R).

State & Local:

NYC-Mayor: Public Advocate (aka NYC's LG-type official) Bill DeBlasio (D) launched his mayoral campaign yesterday channeling a bit of John Edwards-style populism. DeBlasio is currently thought to have an iron grip on third place in this primary contest, behind Council Speaker Christine Quinn and ex-Comptroller Bill Thompson but ahead of Comptroller John Liu.

VA-Redistricting: There are new suggestions Gov. Bob McDonnell and State House Speaker William Howell (R-Stafford) are less than thrilled about the new State Senate map and may be looking for the easiest way to nix it.

MA-LG: After MA LG Tim Murray's abrupt decision not to run for Governor, another shoe may be dropping. State regulators believe Murray may have violated campaign finance laws through his ties to an overpaid Chelsea public housing official. Murray denies all wrongdoing, but expect this one to get worse for him before it gets better. 

VA-SD-37: D-turned-R ex-Alabama Rep. Artur Davis may be considering a bid for the State Senate in 2015 if the new gerrymander is enacted. Only problem - in today's uninformed-journalist moment, they mention him as a challenger to David Marsden (D-Burke), whose district turns into a Dale City based MMD vote sink under the new plan. More realistic for Davis would be a bid against George Barker (D-Clifton) in the 39th, or for the 29th currently held by the elderly Chuck Colgan (D-Manassas).

NV-LD-17: State Rep. Steven Brooks (D-North Las Vegas) is being detained for psychiatric evaluation after being arrested for threatening to kill State Assembly Speaker Marilyn Kirkpatrick (D-Las Vegas) over a political disagreement.

WV-SD-15: Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) has appointed judge Donald Cookman to fill the seat vacated by Agriculture Commissioner Walt Helmick (D). If 2008 Ag Commissioner R candidate Mike Teets ran here in 2014 it could be a great pickup opportunity for us.

NJ-SD-17: Ex-Franklin Twp. Mayor Brian Levine (R) is running against State Sen. Bob Smith (D-Piscataway). The Dem-leaning seat might be in play if Christie has strong coattails; Levine is a good recruit for Republicans here.

MD-AA-CE: Anne Arundel County Executive John Leopold (who was also the 1978 Republican nominee for HI-Gov) is currently on trial. Leopold is accused of misusing his security detail to perform his personal tasks, including taking him to sexual trysts with a county employee. The trial continues this week; I believe councilman Jerry Walker (R-Gambrills) would take Leopold's slot if he left before 2014.

shamlet :: Mega-Roundup for January 28, 2012
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What a roundup!
Thanks. Mega.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

Wow
It is quite surprising what happened this weekend, but there was a lot of news.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
I know
I heard about Chambliss and Harkin while on my trip, but it wasn't until I got home that I saw McDaniel was out, Halter and Cutler were in, Lynch was sort-of-in... and the list keeps going on. Something weird was in the water last Friday.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
And Thursday
The Friday morning roundup wasn't nearly this huge, but there was a lot more news than there had been all month. Maybe things will pick up now?

[ Parent ]
eh we are also back to 1 daily roundup
During election peak there were 2 or sometimes 3.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
KY-Sen: Dems to back TP'er in GOP Primary
Democrats are trying to find an Akin or Mourdock to challenge McConnell.  But this gives McConnell the opportunity to say he is running against a Democrat stooge.

http://www.politico.com/story/...

33, R, IN-09


Teddy Turner
Last night, I spoke with an acquaintance who graduated from Charleston Collegiate School last year who took a class or two taught by Teddy Turner. He was thrilled to hear that one of his favorite teachers is running for Congress and called him a "good Republican" and said he's really bright. Just figured I'd tell y'all that.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


Teddy Turner...
Seems like a candidate who could beat Sanford in a run-off. Ergo, he's okay in my book. His initial bio spot was pretty good as well.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.

[ Parent ]
Kasim Reed
In what world is he considered a strong candidate statewide in Georgia?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


In a world where Paul Broun wins the GOP nomination...


Mainstream Dem.  

[ Parent ]
Not even in that world
He'd be more formidable than he would be against Tom Price or Karen Handel (read: sure loser), but he would not be a "strong candidate."

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
Well, consider it from a Georgia Democratic perspective
In no way is he a strong candidate, but when your base is so small, he wouldn't be that bad.


[ Parent ]
Reed is fairly moderate for an urban black D
There have been a lot of stories on his close friendship with Deal. He'd probably be my third choice if I were a Georgia Dem after Barrow and Marshall.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Reed would need to be Harold Ford Jr.
Those two are similar in that neither was an ideal fit statewide, but were among the top tier of what their party could offer. Reed wouldn't have the built-in name advantage Ford did, but he'd start out with a higher floor and a stronger base.

[ Parent ]
Maybe on local issues
But, on national issues along with his rhetoric, he's as partisan as they come.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Strong for GA Dems
He is the most prominent of the state's elected Democrats both statewide and nationally and would be able to attract national media attention and raise lots of money.  That doesn't mean he'd be the favorite but I'm having trouble thinking of people who would start off in a better position than he would.  Barnes, Barrow and Cleland are the obvious alternatives and even those are questionable in terms of their relative competitiveness.

[ Parent ]
Forgot Marshall
though he didn't exactly leave office in a blaze of glory.

[ Parent ]
IL-Sen
If Durbin retires, he's almost certainly going to try to find a downstate (meaning non-Chicagoland) candidate to try to replace him. Simon may well be the best option in his mind, unless Cheri Bustos wants to run.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


He's super-close with Duckworth though
And she's probably the best candidate Dems could put up anyway.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Your pilgrimage to WV-03
Haha, Shamlet, your trip to WV-03 reminds me of my visit to MA-06. Both of us seem to be fairly focused on those seats and they're not exactly right next to our respective schools.

Anyway, what were your thoughts and observations?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


Well, the purpose for my trip had nothing to do with politics
it was more for my day job... but I should be able to do a diary later today on what I learned. WV-3 is more complex than it's stereotyped.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
California is aging heavily, unlike much of the west
http://www.ocregister.com/opin...

Just as it differs by country, the degree of post-familialism varies among countries, but it also does among states and regions. Some states, notes a recent Packard Foundation study, such as Texas, Utah and North Carolina, have seen double-digit gains in their child populations over the past decade while California's has dropped by over 3 percent. Some urban regions like Raleigh, Austin, Houston, Charlotte, Dallas-Fort Worth and Atlanta have also seen rises in their number of children, with population between ages 5 and 17 growing by 20 percent or more over the past decade.

Historically, California and its regions stood among these family magnets, but no more. Like the states of the Northeast and upper Midwest, the Golden State is becoming rapidly geriatric, as families opt out, and immigration, the primary source of our growth in younger people, declines in an economy ill-suited to migrants with aspirations for a better life.

Interesting paradox. Older populations are flourishing in blue states while young populations are growing in red states.

27, R, PA-07.


Not surprising
Why anyone would want to raise a family in California is outside my reasoning.  The place is the dream of many progressives who hate the traditional family unit or at least don't realize their policies discourage stable families.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
High housing costs and prop 13 don't help either
A long time resident who owns their house pays about 1/20th of the property taxes as a new buyer.  Makes it hard to get a large enough space to raise a family for a young couple.

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

[ Parent ]
Agree
My parents fled California twenty years ago because housing costs were out of control then.  My parents firmly believed in having one parent at home and that was not possible in the state.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
IA-Sen: More ins/outs
  • Paulites may consolidate around someone. From the chatter I have seen, this includes IA GOP Chair AJ Spiker, former State Senator Kent Sorenson, IA GOP Finance Chair Drew Ivers, and IA GOP Co-Chair David Fischer.




libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

Read the entire interview
Reynolds said she's focused on the Brandstad agenda now, but is open minded about 2014. Although Brandstad did seem more stand off-ish.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Agree
I took that as more of a "probably not" than a definite no. But the lesson of 2012 is that we want not only the best candidate, but the most enthusiastic candidate as well. So if Schultz or Northey or whomever really wants it, that should be who we get behind.

[ Parent ]
I agree that no should be dragged in a race kicking and screaming
But, in politics talent is necessary for a high profile senate race. And as far as I can see, only Reynolds and Latham can go toe-to-toe with Braley, unless Brandstad gets in. I wouldn't take Reynolds' comments to mean she's not interested, but rather her not wanting to give detractors a reason to block their 2013 agenda.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
I would include Northey in that category
He won an open seat in a bad year for the IAGOP and his office is obviously quite relevant in Iowa. The buzz is that he wants to be governor after Branstad retires (again) but he'd be a strong candidate for this seat as well.

[ Parent ]
Here are the additional tweets
@KObradovich: Reynolds:  I'm going to keep my options open.  Reporter Bill Petroski: Oh, so you are ...   Reynolds: No ... #iagov

@KObradovich: Branstad says his final decision on running for re-elex "doesn't get made until 2014." #iagov

@KObradovich: Branstad praises Harkin's service. But says it's a "mistake" to "suddenly shift to politics of 2014." #iagov

@KObradovich: Reynolds says she thinks everyone who has been mentioned as a possible candidate has probably heard support from someone. #iagov

@JenniferJJacobs: Asked if he'd run for Senate, Branstad: "I don't want to go to Washington, DC. I don't mind visiting the place." Doesn't want 6 years there.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Here's a link
http://blogs.desmoinesregister...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
NJ-2014; St. Rep. Jay Webber considering
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

Other than Christie, only someone like John Crowley has the potential to put this seat in play.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Tom Kean, Jr could put it in play
He had the misfortune of running for Senate in 2006 and still managed to hold Menendez to 53% of the vote. If it was 2010 I think he could have won the seat.
Also keep in mind 2014 is a free shot for any member of the NJ legislature since they run in odd years. So seeing interest from members of the state senate & assembly is not surprising since they got nothing to lose by running.

[ Parent ]
WY-Sen; More speculation about Liz Cheney
http://m.washingtonexaminer.co...

I do think Enzi retires, but very late in order to give Lummis the advantage and pushing Cheney, Rita Meyer and others towards an open house seat.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


GA-Sen; Perdue and Handel poll the best among GOP
http://m.wsbradio.com/news/new...

Perdue 22%
Handel 15% - 60% of her support are from women!
Price 10%
Broun 10%
Westmoreland 8%
Undecided 25%

No mention about the other 10%, but I imagine its quite a few folks in the low single digits.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Where Perdue Been?
He is 66 years old and left office pretty popular any chance he run for this seat?

[ Parent ]
His former chief of staff said he's considering it
And as far as I can tell, Perdue's been relaxing the last two years since his term ended.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Here are the remaining numbers
The rest of the field identified by GAPundit.com includes U.S. Reps. Paul Broun (10.3 percent), Tom Price (9.7 percent), Lynn Westmoreland (8.4 percent), Tom Graves (R-Ga.) (6.3 percent) and Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp (3.4 percent). 24.5 percent of those surveyed were "undecided."

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
You know that
This is a voluntary online poll>

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
It says telephone survey of 1000 GA voters
"A telephone survey of 1000 Georgia voters by GaPundit.com shows former Governor Sonny Perdue leading other possible Republican Senate candidates with 22.4 percent support.  Former Secretary of State Karen Handel is next at 15 percent.  According to editor Todd Rehm, 60 percent of her support comes from women."

Now I have no idea if it is a good survey or not, but I don't see anything about it being a self selecting poll.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
You're right
Mixed it up with this.
http://gapundit.com/2013/01/26...

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
NJ-Gov; Pascrell out, all hail Christie!
http://www.politickernj.com/62...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

NJ-Gov: Sweeney out
http://www.nationaljournal.com...

Sweeney's decision leaves State Sen. Barabara Buono as the only Democratic candidate officially in the race at this time. State Sen. Richard Codey, a former interim governor, announced Friday that he wouldn't run, and Newark Mayor Cory Booker is preparing for a 2014 Senate bid.

27, R, PA-07.


Not a surprise
Sweeney would have had to give up his Senate seat and the NJ Senate Presidency to run.

[ Parent ]
Mike Teets
"Mike Teets, the only Republican on the Hardy County Commission, denies that race has anything to do with local antipathy towards Mr Obama. But he is concerned that the president may be a Muslim, secretly in cahoots with Osama bin Laden, whose killing he could have faked. He also wonders whether the president might be gay. Wild accusations like these, Mr Obama's supporters maintain, stem from sublimated racism."

Source

Even if the guy is just running for State Senate, his history of statements like the one above, to say the least, concerns me. Do we have anyone else who could run for that seat? A mine owner perhaps?

Lifelong Republican, TX-17


Let me get this straight
The guy made Islamophobic and homophobic statements, but Obama's supporters ignore the obvious and pronounce him racist.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Racism
Racism has better shock value than the other terms.  This guy is just a bigot.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Problems with copypasta
I copied and pasted that from an article in The Economist. Perhaps I should have left that last part out. The point I'm trying to make is that he made bizarre statements, and that we should probably be looking for a better candidate.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Agree
He should not be running for some obscure local office.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
IL-2 Special
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

I read this article and I think if the GOP wants to engage Black voters this is the election to do it in. No, I don't think a Republican can win and I wouldn't spend huge bucks on advertising. There are no other elections, so the NRCC and RNC can send in their top strategists for the election. They use several messages at campaign events and with volunteers make door knocks and phone calls.

I'm not interested in how the GOP candidate does in Will and Kankakee counties. The goal should be to get Chicago votes. Brian Woodworth got 12.9% in Cook county and 6% in the city of Chicago. Obviously some of that was due to Jackson's issues, but the independent candidate also took 13.7% in Cook County. They should set goals of improving those numbers.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


If Lenny McAllister wins the GOP primary
and Debbie Halvorson wins the Dem primary you might be on to something here. Could be the perfect storm needed to make inroads. At the very least you could raise McAllister's profile enough to have him run for statewide office in IL in the future. He could make a very good Lt Gov candidate for the GOP.

[ Parent ]
I'm not thinking about Lenny McAllister
If they want to do engagement with the Black community, it's the perfect election to do it. Lenny McAllister being Black is a good bonus.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Are suggesting "Victory Lab II?"
If you are, then I would suggest performing this experiment in Detroit and Southfield instead. The message testing results could be very different for urban and suburban blacks. I know that there are many blacks in Chicago's south suburbs, but I'm not sure that the concentration is high enough for a good comparison.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
We have an election in Chicago, not Detroit and Southfield
This is an opportunity to improve our engagement with minorities. It may not be the perfect test market, but it's now. So not taking advantage is just wasting something handed to us. Whatever we learn, we can use in the future.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
It can be done with multiple elections.
I was just pointing out that messages that could be ineffective on the South Side could be effective in black suburbia.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
IL-2 has plenty of black suburbia
Other than the Atlanta and PG districts and NY-5 it probably has the highest percentage of black suburbanites.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I addressed that a few comments upthread.
Yes, the number is high, but it's more mixed-in with non-black populations. You could get false positives from racial turnout disparities that would help the GOP's numbers. I still think that this worth doing for this special, but if we're going to message-test, I want to run the experiment under more controlled and stable conditions as well. That means having another test with two solidly black areas (one urban and poor, one suburban and middle-class) under more standard turnout conditions (a midterm or presidential election year). Using Detroit and Southfield should filter-out regional differences and the problems of testing with two different races. You can test with one race.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Southfield
Southfield's a quarter white, FWIW.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.
The Steve Plan for a resurgent GOP: Fewer Steve Kings, more Steve Litzows


[ Parent ]
*might not be effective


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Eric Wallace
Eric Wallace is also running in the Republican primary. He would also be a good candidate and was previously considered a potential replacement for Jack Ryan in the 2004 senate election.

[ Parent ]
GOP Candidate
I know the GOP candidate running. (I think there's just one.) He's Lenny McAllister. He's black, used to live in Davidson, North Carolina (home of the eponymous college Stephen Curry attended) and ran for local offices there, and has been a talk radio host. McAllister seems to be a good GOP candidate for the district.

[ Parent ]
NC-Sen: Hagan gets first declared opponent
From one of the NC "grassroots conservative" blogs.

http://dailyhaymaker.com/?p=4780

Dr. Greg Brannon, a Cary OB-GYN, announced his intentions to run.

He's definitely a Some Dude, although he's apparently a talk-show regular on one of the local conservative hosts here in the Triangle. Seems to have the endorsement of some of the Paul-types and hardcore Tea Party groups, neither of which have much influence in North Carolina. Probably not much of a factor, although you never know what the Club for Growth and related groups will do if they don't like the slate of big names that get into the race.  

24/M/Republican/Law Student/NC-13


Republicans Control Everything in NC now
I just worry Hagen would love to run against guy in charge like SOH  

[ Parent ]
The guy who runs that sute irritates me because hes soooo pure.
He hates everyone who has any chance of winning.  

23, Conservative, NC-02 (SC-04 college) LUKE 18:5 is the official GOTV verse for 2014! -    

[ Parent ]
Agreed
He has it out for Tillis, McCrory, and especially Ellmers, whom he derisively refers to as Mrs Harnett County. Annoys me to no end since I went to undergrad in NC-2 and have found Rep. Ellmers to be an excellent addition to the House

24/M/Republican/Law Student/NC-13

[ Parent ]
NJ-Sen '18: You burried the lede on this story!
What the FBI is investigating is the fact that Sen Menendez flew to a foriegn country to have sex with underage girls! The prositutes he was paying to have sex with in the Dominican Republic were 15, 16 and 17 year old girls. That is the violation of Federal laws the FBI is looking into.

great writeup
Of the 00s in NJ politics.  The local party orgs just couldn't resist Corzine's canvas bags with dollar signs on them, and the tilt of the state was enough to get a very weak politician through twice, but not the third time.
It also reinforces what I said about Codey not being a politician first.  He's a family man first, Funeral Director second, and politician maybe like sixth, which is why he was popular.

[ Parent ]
MA-Sen Dates Set
http://www.bostonglobe.com/met...

Secretary of State William F. Galvin, said today that the special election to fill John F. Kerry's Senate seat will take place June 25, with a primary set for April 30.

I think a short window will definitely benefit Brown if he runs. It gives the Democratic nominee less time to build up name recognition and finances. Let's hope for a "spirited" Democratic primary.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Bqhatevwr


An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.

[ Parent ]
June 25th special also means college kids are home for summer


[ Parent ]
It's also one of the most popular vacation weeks
Most Massachusetts public K-12 schools will finish the year the Friday before. A lot of families will take off the week between the end of school and the 4th of July.

The lower the turnout, the better for Brown. I joked in 2010 that 6 inches of snow on election day would be God's sign that He's a Republican.


[ Parent ]
Growing doubts that Brown...
....will run for Senate. If he ran and won, he would then have to run again for a full term next year.
That would make it 4 statewide campaigns in 5 years; pretty tough on a family.

R/MA-9; hometown CT-2; lonely MSM conservative.

[ Parent ]
eh I don't see a reason for Brown to even want to run
If he lived in, say, Connecticut, it would be a different story.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
I don't see his family as a reason not to run
As far as political families go, they're pretty engaged. His wife semi-retired from her news job to spend more time on the campaign trail and his daughters are both in their 20's and make appearances with him.

The reasons he wouldn't run: 1. He's personally exhausted
2. He doesn't think he could survive 2014
3. He wants to be Governor


[ Parent ]
He may need a break
The (allegedly) buzzed tweets the other night are consistent with a guy who wants to take a little time not being "on" all the time  

[ Parent ]
maybe, but...
He did just run for Senate, which isn't a super easy job if he had won.  Likely he would have been shuttling back and forth between DC and Mass. to keep up on all the events he has back home anyway.  And he's a great fundraiser so it's not like that would be terribly hard work for him.  

All I saying was if he wanted to be "off", he wouldn't have run for re-election.  Granted a 6 year term would have made things a little easier, but he barely took a minute off from the second he was sworn in in 2010.  He's a workhorse!


[ Parent ]
nothing easy for republican in Mass
If he runs for Gov Mass and gets re-elected he could run for US Senate down line.  I'm not sure what he should do.  I think he likes being in legislature.  

[ Parent ]
The Majority
If Brown wins the full term he likely could end up in the majority for at least 2 of those years. He's never been in the majority and it might be very appealing.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Brown
Brown has been in public office since 1987, including spending 12 years in the Mass legislature in the minority. I can't imagine anyone would want to be a Republican on Beacon Hill for 12 years if they wanted to do anything else. The guy is a politician and a very good one. From everything he's said, he sounds like he's not done serving.

Brown may want a break, but you don't get to choose when elections are in politics. You go to them. Brown is popular enough that there are only two possible positions in his future, the U.S. Senate or governor. If he doesn't run this term, he has to wait until 2018 for either. Both of those would be against incumbents. The only reasons he doesn't run in this election are:

1. He wants to run for governor.
2. He thinks he can beat Ed Markey in 2014 for a full term with Markey as the incumbent.

The first one is a real possibility but running for the U.S. Senate in June doesn't exclude this as an option. The second possibility is a little shaky because Bill Weld could win the seat, the polls say Brown will win big, and I doubt Markey will be easier if he's an incumbent.

If he really didn't want to be on all the time, Tweeting to 57,000 people isn't the way to go. You don't Tweet at all.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Interesting Post-Mortem from Iowa
http://whotv.com/2013/01/27/th...

An anti-public union, market-loving moderate.

TX-SD-6
It was last Saturday - as expected, County Commissioner Sylvia Garcia and State Rep. Carol Alvarado, a pair of Hispanic liberal Dems, will advance to the runoff in this seat that basically corresponds to TX-29. Garcia led Alvarado 45-42.

R - MD-7

GA-Sen; Perdue to announce intentions tomorrow
@feliciasonmez: RT @lorigeary: Source:  We will hear from former Governor Sonny Perdue tomorrow about whether or not he'll run for Senate.  #gapol #gagop

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

can he clear field?
Would he clear field?

[ Parent ]
Perdue will attract a lot of opposition from the right
He is a former democrat and ( like Nathan Deal ) he is considered too much moderate on fiscal issues...I bet Club for growth and redstate will attack him very hard...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
Perdue is 66
Most southern Republicans that age or older are former Democrats.

[ Parent ]
IA- no clash of the titans
http://www.politico.com/story/...

The sense among most Republicans is that Latham and King will probably not wind up running against each other - but that another strong GOP candidate will emerge should Latham sit it out. But there's also a feeling that the establishment would eventually rally around King, especially after he ran such a disciplined campaign last year. In order to win, he'd need to run up his margin in the conservative northwest corner of the state.

Hmm.  

27, R, PA-07.


What garbage!


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Impossible...there arent enough republicans in the northwest
to counter eastern Iowa and Polk county...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
2 points on this
1) Recchia will be an ex-city councilman if he were to run against Grimm in 2014. Its harder to run out of office because he'll no longer have his City Council office to dole out favors, member items and constituent services from.

2) If Sen Adams wins the Boro Pres there will be a vacant State Senate Seat. A Dem will definitely win the special but for a period of time the Dems will be short 1 seat in the state senate giving the GOP more room to maneuver.  


[ Parent ]
Preckwinkle for Hutchinson
http://atr.rollcall.com/illino...

Expect Kelly to go nuclear on Hutchinson quite soon.

R - MD-7


Solis article
Here is Google Translate's version:

http://translate.googleusercon...

A little garbled, but one can get the gist of it.


AL-SOS: State Rep. John Merrill (R) will run
Cassidy Acting More Like Candidate
He spoke in Metairie and Slidell earlier this month and met with local power brokers, and then he also spoke at events in Lafayette, and now he is writing editorials in the Shreveport Times.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


SC-Gov: Loftis Out, OH-07: Boccieri In?
Loftis is running for re-election, not against Haley:
http://www2.wbtw.com/news/2013...

In Ohio, John Boccieri filed for OH-07, but says he may run for Ryan's seat if he goes for Gov and could also run statewide http://www.cleveland.com/open/...

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


Sonny Perdue not running


26, Male, R, NY-10

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