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Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog. Please read our site Terms of Use.

~The RRH Moderators: BostonPatriot, Daniel Surman, GoBigRedState, Greyhound, James_Nola, Right Reformer, Ryan_in_SEPA, and Shamlet.

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RRH's 2014 General Election Preview Series:

Part 4 - Northeast/South House

Part 3 - Midwest/West House

Part 2 - Row Officers

Part 1 - Legislatures and Local

The Current RRH Race Ratings:

Senate

Governor

House

Row Officers

Q2 Fundraising


Political Roundup for January 29, 2013

by: BostonPatriot

Tue Jan 29, 2013 at 08:00:00 AM EST


50% as mega. 100% as fun. Infinity percent as snarky.

Senate

GA-Sen: Ex-Gov. Sonny Perdue (R) will decide on a bid today. If he runs (unlikely), he leads an early primary poll that amounts to a name-rec test: Perdue 22, Karen Handel 15, and various Congressmen between 6 and 10.

GA-Sen: Interesting nugget in an article on GOP primary woes: everyone seems to agree that Georgia, where Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed is the likeliest nominee, is the Dems' best pickup opportunity. That's the equivalent of a routine open New Jersey seat being our best opportunity.

IA-Sen: A rather messy Politico piece concludes: Republicans like Steve King, but generally think Tom Latham is stronger. Both King and Latham are interested, but won't run against each other. And whichever one runs is still likely to face a primary.

More IA-Sen: That mystery 3rd Republican could be LG Kim Reynolds, who isn't ruling out a bid, or Inspections and Appeals Director Rod Roberts, who is well-liked by the state party. But it's not Gov. Terry Branstad: he's seeking re-election.

KY-Sen: SUSA finds Mitch McConnell with 17/34 re-elect numbers, although 44% are undecided (shockingly high for a state institution who's one of the most visible Senators, right? ) Regardless, this isn't a great position to be in.

More KY-Sen: Which is why this news isn't surprising: MoveOn.org (remember them?) and other liberal SuperPACs are interested in running a sham "Tea Party" candidate against McConnell in the primary. You'd think Kentucky Republicans will see through that...but their neighbors to the west did just let Claire McCaskill pick her opponent.

LA-Sen: Joe Biden will hit the road to fundraise for Sen. Mary Landrieu. Meanwhile, Rep. Bill Cassidy is looking more like a candidate, making appearances in greater New Orleans and placing op-eds in Shreveport, both outside his House district.

MA-Sen: Two bits of news: in advance of John Kerry's certain confirmation, the primary date has been set for April 30, with the general on June 25. Also, Ed Markey wants to revamp the "People's Pledge" barring outside spending that Brown and Warren signed in 2012. Many think Warren got the better of this pledge; I think it's what kept Brown in the race for so long.

More MA-Sen: Who's the third option for the GOP if Scott Brown and Bill Weld both pass? It's sounding like Richard Tisei, who's also considering a 2014 MA-06 rematch. Kerry Healey and Charlie Baker are also interested.

NJ-Sen: Asbm. Jay Webber is the first GOP name attached to this race, although he's focusing on the 2013 elections first.

WY-Sen, VA-10: Not often you see these races paired, but here goes: Liz Cheney, previously thought to be interested in succeeding Frank Wolf in NoVa, has moved back to Wyoming, where she could succeed Mike Enzi if he retires.

Governor

ID-Gov: Rep. Raul Labrador might challenge Gov. Butch Otter (who will likely seek a third term) in the GOP primary. This could get ugly, as Labrador has already angered the Idaho and national establishment.

NJ-Gov: After making us wonder for a couple months, Rep. Bill Pascrell (D) proves he's not crazy: he won't run against Gov. Chris Christie. He endorsed likely nominee Barbara Buono. State Senate President Steve Sweeney won't run either, but held off on an endorsement.

PA-Gov: Ex-Rep. Patrick Murphy (not to be confused with Florida's Rep. Patrick Murphy, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, or any of my cousins) will not run for governor.

SC-Gov: Curtis Loftis, seen as the greatest primary threat to Gov. Nikki Haley, will seek re-election as Treasurer. Haley's path to a rematch with Vince Sheheen now looks clearer.

VA-Gov: Another fairly useless poll of this race, this time from Roanoke: Cuccinelli (R) 33, McAuliffe (D) 26; Cuccinelli 25, McAuliffe 19, Bolling (I) 12.

House

IL-02: Debbie Halvorson is in the racial version of Charles Djou's 2010 situation: she'll win if and only if the black vote remains split among a dozen candidates, but two black candidates can catch her: St. Sen. Toi Hutchison and Cook County CAO Robin Kelly. Hutchsion rolled out an endorsement from Cook County Prez Toni Preckwinkle yesterday, so maybe this will get her some separation from Kelly.

NV-03: Erin Bilbray-Kohn, who apparently overcame the burdens of growing up as a Congressman's daughter to become a political consultant and DNC operative, is considering a bid against Rep. Joe Heck (R) in this swing district.

OH-07: Ex-Rep. John Boccieri (D) has filed to run against Rep. Bob Gibbs (R)....unless Tim Ryan's safely blue seat opens up...or unless Boccieri changes his mind and runs statewide. One thing seems clear: Boccieri does not want a rematch with Jim Renacci, who beat him in 2010.

WV-03: New pollster Harper Research surprisingly polled the GOP primary here, finding 2012 candidate Rick Snuffer pulling 51%. Hopefully they have general numbers too! RRH will be taking a closer look at this district soon.

NRCC: With Keystone XL in the news, the NRCC is making buys in 38 districts pressuring Dems to support the pipeline.

BostonPatriot :: Political Roundup for January 29, 2013
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Georgia ≠ New Jersey
Georgia was R+5.9 in 2012. New Jersey was D+7.0.

In terms of PVI, Georgia is closer, in reverse, to Maine (D+5.9), Washington (D+5.7), Illinois (D+6.6), and Connecticut (D+6.8) than it is to New Jersey.

Democrat, NC-11


Washington is probably the best comp
But I was thinking of the 4 Senate races in NJ from 2000-08. Each time the GOP found a good candidate and theoretically had a shot, but the state's lean proved too much. Also, NJ has been closer to GA in PVI in the past; Sandy certainly helped Obama this year.

[ Parent ]
Yep
Maine and Washington were also the closest to Georgia, in reverse, in 2008 as well. Maine has eccentric voting patterns so it's not a great comparison to much of anywhere else. Washington's a good analogue.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Sandy effect
2012 was an unusually good D year in NJ due to depressed Monmouth/Ocean turnout.

NJ's real PVI is still in the D+5 range.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
the Georgia high ceiling/low floor tends to apply well to NJ
We only have a few statewide contests, but the GOP gets 40-45%. Washington has had quite a few Republicans stray close to 48-49% and at least a couple statewide offices over the last few elections.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Roanoke is a horrible pollster


26, Male, R, NY-10

Pledge
Brown should absolutely sign it again. Markey can't fundraise the way Warren did.

R - MD-7

If he plays his cards right
Markey can hit up all the Green types from around the country.  He's been one of the most visible voices from the left on climate issues.

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

[ Parent ]
Corbett is DOA
http://www.philly.com/philly/b...

By 51 percent to 31 percent, Pennsylvania voters say that Corbett, a Republican, does not deserve to be reelected. Only 49 percent of GOP voters would support him if the election ere held today.

Corbett is losing Republicans.

28, Republican, PA-6


Will he quietly turn the keys over to Bruce Almighty?
Avoiding a bloodbath should be high on the PAGOP wish list at this point  

[ Parent ]
almost feel bad for the guy
Not sure what he did to deserve all this. He's just not a great politician I suppose.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Bad political skills
Corbett has a very aloof style that does not play well politically.  I think he was a great prosecutor because he was so aloof.  That obviously does not make you a good chief executive.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
If Castor primaries Corbett and wins the general
does the 'two terms' rule apply? The GOP could control 2022 redistricting.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Never been tested
most PA Governors since the two-term limit came into force in 1970 have not even had a serious challenge to their re-election bids.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Agree
We are really in uncharted waters here.  Previous governors were weak at this juncture, but they recovered.  Corbett is in a unique position of being viewed negatively by members of his own party to a high degree.

That is why I suspect many Democrats aren't eager to enter the race.  They are not sure whether he is truly weak or not.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Two term rules are rules until they aren't rules anymore.


[ Parent ]
I was thinking of the rule 'not beaten by the other party for a second term.'


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
+1


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Yep
We saw the same thing play out with the AG's race.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
PA Political Corruption: More on Fattah's son
http://www.philly.com/philly/n...

28, Republican, PA-6

Special election
There is technically a special primary today to settle the DFL nomination for the election to fill Terry Morrow's seat he vacated earlier this month. The DFL endorsed Mankato State University professor Clark Johnson, and the other candidates will remain on the ballot even though they are abiding by the endorsement and are backing Johnson. The primary is a 4-name ballot with Johnson, pig farmer Karl Johnson (no relation), teacher's union leader Robin Courrier, and the mayor of St. Peter Tim Strand.

This is for Minnesota House district 19A, which is centered around Mankato, and is the home of Tim Walz.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


LaHood is stepping down
Who does Obama go for? Hagel gives him a token Republican so the tradition of the Transportation Secretary being from the off-party may come to an end.

Most seem to think Villaraigosa
nt

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Hmm
LaHood stepping down...and Durbin promising an announcement on 2014 within weeks. With Durbin saying he will announce so early, I feel like he may be retiring since he doesn't need to begin campaigning this early since he is so safe. If he is retiring, Obama might as well take him from the Senate so an appointee can run.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Lisa Madigan
Would Quinn appoint her to avoid his biggest potential primary challenge? I imagine Obama would push for Valerie Jarrett again, perhaps he could promise an endorsement for the appointment. And then we could get another Blago situation - one can only dream!

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
I don't think so
Democrat's aren't hurting for Female Senators, but they're down to 2 Minorities (and that consists of a Freshman from Hawaii and a Cuban from New Jersey who's just been caught with underage prostitutes in a third world county).  I'm almost certain the White House will be pulling for a black Senator.  Is there any nice sounding generic Black back-benchers that could get appointed here?

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Valerie Jarrett
Obama pushed for her last time and if they push for anyone it will be her.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Civitas: Both McCrory and Hagan popular and unknown
Perdue Not Running for Senate in GA
nt

VA-Gov; Cooch finding his inner Booker
http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

GA-Senate; Marshall also out, along with previously mentioned Perdue
http://blogs.ajc.com/political...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Kroft from 60 Minutes admits he throws Obama softballs
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-J...

I've always wondered, is there anything the GOP can do other than bringing it up on conservative outlets or crying foul on "mainstream outlets"? Or should they just accept it and fight through it?

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


PA-Sen 2016; Unbelievable numbers for Toomey among Democrats
@HotlineJosh: More notable than the McConnell poll: Toomey approval among DEMS in PA (Qpiac): 31/35. http://t.co/WJAF0X73

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Pat Toomey
He's a wonderful fit for white collar SEPA Dems (and for most of the constituencies in SEPA and the Lehigh Valley's voters as well). He's fiscally prudent doesn't come out in favor of blindly slashing and burning the budet (as Dems accuse a lot of Republicans of being in favor of), nearly silent on social issues, comes off as a hard worker, and he's a nice guy.



From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
Not just there
His numbers a good across the board.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
TX-Gov: Perry vulnerable to Abbott
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/perry-looking-highly-vulnerable.html

"Only 41% of GOP primary voters want him to be their candidate again, compared to 47% who think it's time for someone else. And in a head to head match up with Attorney General Greg Abbott, Perry leads by only a 41/38 margin. What makes those numbers particularly worrisome for Perry is that Abbott only has 59% name recognition at this point with primary voters. Among voters who are familiar with Abbott- whether they like him or not- he leads Perry 55/33."



libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

Richard Tisei for US Senate
I'm intrigued by the prospect of a Tisei/Markey race, but I'd far rather he just wait and run against John Tierney (or Kim Driscoll) in 2014.

When I communicated with Sen Tisei about a month ago, he told me he was undecided about running again but he was in good spirits and he just seemed hungry for a rematch, so I tend to think he runs for MA-06 again. He has to know that'd be an easier race in a midterm than running against Ed Markey statewide... but for all we know, Markey wouldn't campaign and a ton of natural Democratic constituencies would stay home. Still, his path to Congress is far, far easier than his path to the Senate would be (although he'd get tons of national press for being a moderate Republican running for Senate who'd also be the first gay Republican Senate candidate).

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


I truly think it is Scott Brown or bust here
Tisei probably wouldn't be able to even raise enough money to raise his name recognition in the short period the special election takes place.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Mostly agreed
I think Scott Brown's our best candidate but Tisei would be better than any other option, especially because of all the positive press he'd get as a gay, moderate Republican running for the US Senate. Regardless, I'd rather him just run for Congress again.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
Nah, Weld > Tisei
I like Tisei a lot on paper but his campaign was not great. He relied too much on outside groups attacking Tierney and didn't sell/define himself well until it was too late. I worry a Tisei campaign would be nothing but "Markey doesn't live here!" and too little about Tisei himself. Weld has far more of the showman's instinct that is a big plus here.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Weld
Sources close to him say he's not interested. I have to hear words of interest out of his mouth before I think he's considering the race.

That being said, I do agree that Weld would be a stronger challenger to Markey than Tisei would be. My ideal ticket in 2013/14 would be Weld for Senate, Brown for Governor, and Tisei for MA-06.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
Sources vs. Actions
Long-retired politicians generally don't go on a full-out media blitz just for the heck of it.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
There's no doubt Weld would love to stage a comeback
My hunch all along, however, has been he's convinced Brown will ultimately enter. Which now looks like the case.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Strangely enough, the longer Brown waits
the more likely he is to run. He has 100% name rec so he has everything to be gained by dragging his heels and hopefully letting Lynch rough Markey up for a little while. If he's a no I think we probably hear that within the next week... if it takes him longer than that he's probably running.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Weird things can happen
in a June special that people ignore until the last minute. Remember Scott Brown was roughly our 5th choice for the 2010 Special, after Romney, Healey, Schilling, and Card.

If we run a B tier candidate and Markey thinks he can sleepwalk, there could be a surprise.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Right, but...
People truly underestimated how talented Brown is/was. Tisei couldn't even beat a scandal plagued congressman in the least Democratic cd in the state, while Brown won the district comfortably. Brown showed he was a rare talent, yet that got downplayed as conservatives around the country kept saying "if Brown won in MA, then so and so must win in such and such state or district."

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Richard Tisei
You realize that Brown ran his initial race in turnout lower than even most midterm years, right? He also was lucky enough to have a race short enough for him to be able to sneak up and define himself at the last minute.

Beating an incumbent in a D+4 electorate in Massachusetts is tough stuff, and Tisei came closer than anyone has in a decade and a half.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
Simply, not true
http://www.boston.com/news/spe...
http://uselectionatlas.org/RES...

2010 special - around 2.25 million
2010 midterm - around 2.29 million
Difference - around 40k

And frankly, what difference would it make even if the midterm would have been much larger? Brown won the district comfortably and Tierney was scandal plagued - so much so that most experts and Dem strategists left him for dead.

Tisei was a good candidate on paper, but didn't run a good race. Now, I would prefer he give it another try rather than someone else. But let's call a spade a spade. Brown's political skills are superior, while Tisei's are okay, which is why I don't think Tisei could hold down the 6th even if he were to win in 2014 against a weak incumbent like Tierney.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Candidate skills
You're telling me someone who came a point short in a D+3.5 seat with a high Democratic floor doesn't have good candidate skills? John Tierney campaigned hard and had a lot of union help. I spent time on the ground and Tisei had a pretty good staff and was very personable and was great at speaking with potential supporters. I was on the ground and you weren't, and Tisei has excellent political skills. He'd have to in order to have held onto his Senate seat for so long.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
"I was on the ground and you weren't"
Really? And frankly, what good did it do? Did you predict Tierney would win narrowly?

Everyone and their mother had the race as leans GOP. Scott Brown won the same district comfortably, while losing statewide by 8. So, what does that say about him then? Tierney is as weak as an incumbent gets. Against any other Democrat with a pulse and Tisei loses that same election by a few points less than Romney did to Obama.

If Tisei has "excellent political skills" he surely would have beaten a scandal plagued, roughed up Tierney by the comfortable margins most polls had him winning by. Now, I'm not saying, nor have I ever said, that he's a bad candidate, but the reality is that he was better on paper than he was on the ground, as the major criticism of his race is that he never made the campaign about him, but rather about Tierney. If he was so excellent, he would have made it about him 24/7, like Brown did in 2010 (as third party groups did the attacking).

Overall, I do think he's our best candidate in 2010, as he's now built up name recognition and it is a midterm. And if he were to win, I hope he proves me wrong about his candidate skills, so that he can hold on in 2016. But, until that happens, all he proved was that he was just okay as a candidate.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Wrong
You can have excellent political skills and still lose because of hostile turnout. Lynn gave Tierney a 10,000 vote margin. There was nothing Tisei could do to stop that. If turnout had been lower, he'd have won. GOP polling was awful across the board and it's likely that Tisei was never up more than just a few points. The GOP was polling a 2004ish electorate and that electorate didn't turn out, a 2008 electorate with more minorities did but the GOP did better with whites.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
This is true
But Scott Brown still won the district despite the turnout. Of course Tierney is an incumbent, but it's awfully hard to say he's a more appealing Democrat than Warren given how well-publicized his scandals were. Tisei left too many Obama-Brown-Tierney voters on the table and he needs to figure out how to message to these people if he's going to run again in 2014.

[ Parent ]
+1


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Mind you
I agree that he should have made the race slightly more about himself and slightly less about John Tierney, but running solely as the great guy and Richard Tisei is isn't enough to win MA-06 against an incumbent; Tisei would have had to tarnish the voters' perceptions of John Tierney in some way.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
Tisei
The district was D+3.5 and he managed to lose by 1 point. Only David Valadao was winning a district like that and he was running against a nobody, not an incumbent. In fact, the Republicans beat 4 incumbents, all in R+8 or better districts.

IMO, he was hurt by Fishman being on the ballot. There were likely people who couldn't vote for Tierney because of his issues. So Fishman gave them an alternative.

Scott Brown is, arguably, the best Republican at attracting Democrats and independents to vote for him. We can't expect everyone to be him.
 

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
100% Agree
Fishman killed Tisei. Third Party candidates tend to hurt the GOP more than they hurt the Democrats here.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
Tisei/Lynch race would be more intriguing!
A gay, socially liberal Pro-Choice Republican vs a Social Conservative Pro-Life Democrat who has had a spotty history on gay rights issues.

[ Parent ]
I'd much rather see him wait for 2014
I'm convinced he can unseat Tierney in a middling-turnout midterm. If he runs now, though, and loses by high single-digits to Markey, there's probably no way he can stage a congressional rematch.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
MA-SD-1st Suffolk
State Sen. Jack Hart of South Boston stepping down. Safe D seat, but a racially polarized one. Could be an interesting white/black primary between city councilor Michael Flaherty and State Rep. Linda Forry. http://www.boston.com/news/loc...

R - MD-7

Could be a tipping point in city politics
That's the old Bulger district. It's been Irish forever, but it's becoming more and more diverse. If a black candidate wins it will be the culmination of 20+ years of political change.

[ Parent ]
Boston
Just curious when primary date for Mayor of Boston race is?  Menino might not run again as he is ailing and general date is November 2013.  This might impact US Senate Race too  

[ Parent ]
September IIRC
nt

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Although May 21st is the filinmg deadline
So the critical date in learning Menino's intentions will come up much sooner.  

[ Parent ]
This could potentially help Lynch
If they hold the election on the same day as the US senate vote. (Assuming he runs at all.)

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

[ Parent ]
All-Dubuquer Congressional election?
http://www.thonline.com/blogs/...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Weiner comeback?
Anthony Weiner is polling for the NYC Comptroller race:
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/l...

Weiner's got $3.9 million in his city campaign account so he could basically run for citywide office without having to raise a penny.

Although a run for Public Advocate would make a heck of a lot more sense for him. A do nothing public office whose sole function is for its occupant to hold press conferences and pontificate at taxpayers expense seems like the right job for a guy like Anthony Weiner.  


Weiner!
http://www.redracinghorses.com...

I could not help myself.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
The Best


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
NJ-Gov
Sweeney is on board with BB now, so it looks like she is the de facto nominee.  I wish there had been a way to bet on that a year and a half ago when everyone thought it would be Codey, Booker, Sweeney, Pallone, et al:

http://www.redracinghorses.com...


Ha!
I would not have guessed that a year and a half ago.  I thought BB was/is a more serious candidate than she has been portrayed in the media.  But I always had a feeling that Codey was going to get in and get very close to defeating Christie (pre Sandy).

So would you be so kind as to give us the Christie/Buono/Ind results now hahaha?


36, Republican, NJ-11  


[ Parent ]
Buono isn't really the consensus candidate
Rather she is the only candidate.

I wonder if Christie can hit 80% in Hunterdon or Ocean counties.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Cuccinelli helps truck driver escape burning rig
http://blogs.nbc12.com/decisio...

Cuccinelli helped the driver out of the cab of the truck and then went in search of a fire extinguisher. After finding one he instructed Chenard to call for help and he ran to the back of the truck to help the driver put out the flames.

Pulls a Booker I suppose.

27, R, PA-07.


Cooch story
Heh, this is like the fourth time this story has been posted on RRH in separate places.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
Catsimatidis
Heh. If he wins, let's just hope his doesn't become the face of the Republican Party.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
PA-Gov: Corbett gets a challenger
http://triblive.com/politics/p...

Wolf is C list at best.

More importantly:

Yet Larry Ceisler, a Philadelphia-area Democratic strategist, isn't convinced that Corbett is as vulnerable as some people think.

"I think the real question is, can you beat an incumbent governor, none of whom has ever lost? That is a very hard hill to climb," he said, citing campaign money as an obstacle. Corbett, said Ceisler, in recent weeks "is out there doing a better job of talking about what he has accomplished."



28, Republican, PA-6

Thanks
for making the bottom of the page an active link to the main page, much appreciated!

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Role call article on possible challengers to Joe Garcia.
http://atr.rollcall.com/florid...

It sounds like Flores is out, and I don't know much about any of the other potential candidates accept Navarro.  

male, social, fiscal and foreign policy center-right Republican, in but not of academia, VA-08.


I really like Flores
That's unfortunate, as she has great potential. I just hope we don't put Bush Jr. out there.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Alex Diaz de la Portilla is a poor candidate
You would think that a former state Senate majority leader and a former state Representative will win an open state House seat in Miami-Dade against a Democrat who has never served in any political office before, but no. He lost to Democrat now-state Rep. Jose Javier Rodriguez by 7.4 points in 2012.  

[ Parent ]
Kerry confirmed
nt

R - MD-7

Ohio GOP skips electoral college shift
http://www.politico.com/story/...

No electoral college changes.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


They dont want to give up their status as kingmaker
Can't blame them, really.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
They dont want to give up their status as kingmaker
Can't blame them, really.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Boccieri
No, he's not challenging Bob Gibbs. John Boccieri filed for Congress so that he can run for OH-13 if Tim Ryan runs for Governor. He damn well knows that running for an R+7 district in 2012 that is trending right is tantamount to getting curb stomped. He just wanted to let other potential OH-13 candidates know that he'd be running and that they shouldn't.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
I thought it was surprising that he didn't file in OH-16
It's a slightly better district for Dems, it's "his" old district, and he can probably raise more money running a phony revenge campaign against Renacci than he can against Gibbs.

[ Parent ]
Boston Globe is reporting the Lynch is in
http://www.boston.com/politica...

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7

SC-Treasurer: Loftis running for reelection
Erin Bilbray-Kohn
Erin Bilbray-Kohn is the daughter of ex-Rep Jim Bilbray (D-NV, 1986-94). Jim Bilbray is, in turn, the cousin of ex-Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-CA, 1994-2000 & 2005-2012).

NYC-Mayor: Catsimatidis in
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

If I'm not mistaken, he, Lhota and McDonald are on friendly terms, so I can't imagine this primary getting very combative...unless Smith and Carrion make it official, too. The Giuliani endorsement alone makes Lhota the clear front-runner, but Catsimatidis and McDonald will have much more to spend on advertising. Allon's technically in, too, but he's basically a non-entity.  

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


Bloomy attacking Halvorson
Dumb strategy. The better thing would be to air pro-Kelly ads - Halvorson can probably win on pro-gun votes alone, and these ads probably help her bring back some possible defections. http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

R - MD-7

Halvorson
If she won the special, it seems she would be filling out the partial term only. How would she expect to hold the seat in the regular Democratic primary in a 1 on 1 against a black Chicago candidate. As for Bloomberg's PAC, this district should be one of the easiest for an anti gun message, wins here and in Baca's seat are hardly convincing.

SC1-Charleston

[ Parent ]
Not that the media cares
If she loses I guarantee you we'll hear about how effective Bloomberg is and how Newtown has changed the gun debate forever.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Other IL-2 news
the one televised debate will be at 6:30 tomorrow. http://www.chicagobusiness.com...

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
GA-Sen; Broun is in, according to his wife's slip
http://georgiatipsheet.com/201...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Dammit
We need to keep this guy as far away from the nomination as we can.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Snyder nixes plan to split Michigan electoral votes
Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder Tuesday rejected a proposal to split the state's electoral votes by congressional district, a plan that would potentially give Republicans a chance to pick up ground in presidential elections in a state that has gone Democratic for a generation.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Democrats gone Washington
http://www.nrcc.org/2013/01/29...

NRCC has been burning up Twitter today about Democrats who decried special interests and then cut an ad for House Majority PAC. It reminds me of a young Democrat I know who insists that unions aren't special interests, because they're "for the average person."

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


KY-Sen; Judd is divorcing
http://www.lfpress.com/2013/01...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Divorce
Getting a divorce is always good for a Senate run. Just ask Jack Ryan.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
The collapse of the New Jersey Democratic Party
That is a very informative article.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Menendez prostitution story
Harry Reid dismisses the Menendez prostitution story as a non-story based on the source.

http://dailycaller.com/2013/01...

Unfortunately, no one told the FBI that these are "fallacious allegations." Clearly it's a vendetta the Republicans have out for him.

http://www.miamiherald.com/201...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


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