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MA-Sen: Lynch in

by: shamlet

Tue Jan 29, 2013 at 18:02:19 PM EST


Just minutes after John Kerry's confirmation as Secretary of State, another major development in the MA Senate race. Looks like the rumors last week were indeed someone jumping the gun and not wild speculation.

US Representative Stephen F. Lynch has reserved the ironworkers union hall in South Boston for a Thursday afternoon announcement that he is running for the Democratic nomination in the special election to fill John F. Kerry’s seat, a person with direct knowledge of the congressman’s decision said Tuesday.

The decision is somewhat perplexing as Lynch's social conservatism leaves him the distinct underdog to Rep. Ed Markey. Time is getting short for other candidates to declare, so it looks like we're set to see a one-on-one fight. Markey has the backing of most of the state's establishment already. Lynch's best hope is to mobilize his blue-collar townie base against the uber-white-collar, cosmopolitan-oriented Markey. 

Ultimately Lynch is unlikely to win, but his entrance into the race could be a positive for us by helping turn blue-collar Dems against Markey.

shamlet :: MA-Sen: Lynch in
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MA-Sen: Lynch in | 25 comments
I think Lynch has a shot
Over 88% of the electorate is entitled to vote in the Democratic primary.  If he can get the support of moderate and right-leaning unenrolled voters, plus social conservative dems, he can win.

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7
Seems pretty suicidal to me
I mean, he doesn't stand a chance does he?

In fact, that might be why.  Sort of a "If I can't win now I'll never be able to win, so might as well try"

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

Blue Collar v. Progressive
Is a progressive an automatic win over a blue collar candidate in Massachusetts? Lynch should have a lot of blue collar support and Boston definitely still has a strong share of blue collar Democrats.

I'm reminded of Schneider v. Sheyman in Illinois or the CA-2 primary where progressives couldn't even get Norman Solomon 15% of the vote. Markey, unlike Sheyman, Solomon, or Warren, isn't a progressive darling.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

differences
Abortion.  Both in IL 10 and in CA 2, all Democratic candidates were pro choice.  They all supported Obamacare.  Lynch has those two strikes against him.

I think he can ride blue collar voters and moderates to 35%, but getting over 40% will be tough, particularly since many center right Independents may strategically vote for Markey, assuming he's the weaker candidate vs. Brown/Weld/Tisei.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
Markey is also establishment
IL-10 and CA-02 were both liberal activists running against establishment Democrats. In this case Markey is both the establishment candidate and the liberal.
[ Parent ]
progressive v. moderate
I don't remember either Obamacare or abortion being an issue in CA-2 but each election will have its own issues. In order to compare races you need to look at progressive v. moderate and that race was chalk full of it. Also, Massachusetts doesn't love Obamacare. In 2010 it was widely thought of as something that wouldn't benefit anyone in Massachusetts but would suck tax dollars out of the state.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Progressive vs. Moderate
Major differences, though.

IL: Schneider is a New Dem, Sheyman a Progressive, in a suburban district with lots of New Dems.
CA: Huffman is a mainstream liberal, to the left of the New Dems.  I'd call him a progressive.  Solomon was just more vocally liberal.
MA: Lynch is a blue collar, socially conservative Democrat. The state of MA, while still having more blue collar White Democrats than places like Georgia or Nevada, has a majority liberal Democratic primary electorate.

Finally, Lynch being pro life will be an issue because there is a large number of voters that will never vote pro-life in a contested primary.  Many of them are New Democrats who are more centrist on economic issues (where Lynch is also to Markey's right), but ironically they won't even consider him.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
I'll concede on the abortion issue, but it's all degrees
 In Marin County Huffman might as well be a Republican compared to Solomon. Parts of Middlesex county are equivalent to Marin, but not the state as a whole.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Having lived in Marin just about all of my life
And commuting back and forth quite often, I disagree with your statement about Huffman. He fits the county perfectly. He's not to its right, as there are a lot of business interests that Huffman works well with. The crazy left wing, anti business sentiment is typically over the bridge in Richmond, Berkeley, and Oakland.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
I'll defer to you
Although there were plenty of crazy lefties pushing Solomon, clearly he was even to the left of Marin.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
I've had pretty much the opposite experience
Marin county to me has always produced the kind of people who hate "The System", particularly the aging die-hard Hippies.  Most of the really Pro-business Democrats are from where I am in the West and South Bay (Silicon valley) who think the system is fine so long as Liberals are running it.

Though I do agree that the major cities are where the really hard-core Lefties live.  SF and Berkeley more so than Richmond and Oakland (which are more Generically minority Left-wing than anything else).

Also, I just checked, and San Jose might be the only place in the country where Republicans do better in the main city (29.6% McCain) than the rest of the county (28.8% McCain).  Its an even bigger difference if you limit it to the immediate suburbs and exclude the relatively Republican Morgan Hill/Gilroy and add Southern San Mateo County.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
San Jose
I used to live in San Jose.

It is kind of weird for the main city of a county, in that a major portion of the jobs are in the 'suburbs' to the north and west, rather than the suburbs feeding its workers into San Jose.

[ Parent ]
Brown yes
Weld/Tisei no - Lynch is weaker there as the social liberals in MetroWest probably just stay home.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
GOP sources: Brown likely to announce run next week
http://bostonherald.com/news_o...

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
Surprising
I really didn't think he had it in him to run possibly 4 intense Senate campaigns in 4 years, but clearly I was wrong.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Well, unless he's interested in being governor
This really is the only opportunity he has to continue his political career. A special election is probably the only situation where a non-incumbent Republican can win federal office in Massachusetts.
[ Parent ]
Massinc poll
The guy has been in office for over 20 years and he's given no indication he's done. Consider this:

1. In 2010 he beat Martha Coakley after being down 27 points. If you're presented with a poll where you're up 21 points how do you not jump at it? In the 7 months before the Warren election he was never up by more than 5 in any poll.  

2. I doubt he's up by that much in a gubernatorial poll and the short window means that Markey has less time to come back.

3. He can gear up for an election quicker than Markey, who has never run statewide before. I think Warren having a long cycle really helped her gain name recognition and votes.

4. He's run two senate races. He knows how to do it. A Gubernatorial race will be a little different. So he doesn't have a big advantage there.

5. The electorate the last week in June could be more favorable than the one in January 2010 because college will be out. The big difference is that the electorate then was in an anti-Obama mood and this one might not be.

I don't like to make predictions this far ahead of an election but if Brown's up 20 points than an election with a 5 month campaign is almost a lock.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Colleges were out in Jan. 2010 as well
most Boston schools don't have classes in January.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Only Harvard
I checked this and while Harvard would've been out of session, BU, BC, UMass, and Tufts would've been in session. Harvard's spring term started the following Monday, so it's possible some students had already returned.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
yeah
And while I think the college aspect is a little overstated, school would have to be back for at least a week or so for the College Dems to get all of their stuff together.  Most campuses have registration drives and mobilization for weeks leading up to November generals.  Big tents set up the last couple of days before registration is over.  Weeks of prep for trips to the polls and absentee applications and instructions...

The January special will get the civicly engaged students, but not the ones that need to be prodded, reminded, etc (which in my experience are most of them), even if they are physically back on campus.

[ Parent ]
Agree
On top of what you said, half of students will be registered to vote at home anyway.
[ Parent ]
I was at BC at the time
We were in session, but I think I saw one Coakley pin on a back-pack at the Dining Hall. No flyers, no annoying Democrats chanting anywhere, nothing. Coakley didn't visit the campus, Brown came at least twice (he did go to Law School there).  

R, MA-3
[ Parent ]
Point number 2 is not correct
Brown would be up by a huge margin in any race against any opponent who is not as well known as him. That includes any Democrat in the state with the exception of Patrick, Kerry and maybe a Kennedy.
[ Parent ]
That's possible
But all the other points indicate that his gubernatorial rival would have the time to close.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
I think Brown is the kind of pol who would actually look forward to 4 campaigns in 4 years
There are some pols who like politics for the governance and power (Dick Lugar, GHW Bush) and some who actually like it for the campaigns (Bill Clinton, Obama). Brown has always struck me as the kind of guy who actually enjoys the campaign aspect of politics. He seems like the kind of pol who would enjoy running 4 times in 4 years.
[ Parent ]
MA-Sen: Lynch in | 25 comments
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