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Weekend Open Thread & Poll

by: shamlet

Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 17:00:00 PM EST


Some questions for your pregame entertainment-

1. Do Republicans have any path to victory in MA-Sen now with Brown declining to run? If so, what would it look like?

2. A depressing big game themed question: We know the chances are terrible in either, but does the GOP have a better chance of winning statewide in MD or CA in the near-to-moderate term?

Please answer our poll on MA-Sen candidates as well.
shamlet :: Weekend Open Thread & Poll
Poll
Who do you want to run for Senate in MA?
Bill Weld
Richard Tisei
Kerry Healey
Keith Ablow
Gabriel Gomez
A State Legislator (please specify in comments)
Someone Else (please specify in comments)

Results

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Weekend Open Thread & Poll | 146 comments
If there's a Ron Johnson with a Southie accent
Who's reasonably mainstream in his ideology; then he/she could run against DC, hope for Markey/Lynch Coakleyesq hubris; and harness the barn coat vote across MA that propelled Brown in the '10 special  
Answers
1. Scott Brown won because the voters of Massachusetts elected him. They aren't unique to Brown. I'm not saying it's easy, but he's shown that a Republican can put together a coalition. Since Brown did it so recently, it the nuts and bolts are possible to put together.

2. If you're talking gubernatorial or senate, the answer isn't California. I'm sure we can a statewide position in 2014 or 2018. I don't see how we win a senate seat here, however, and I don't see any chance of unseating Jerry Brown. California has shown they will elect a Republican for governor if he's someone who transcends the party. We don't know a person like that right now.


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Is Ron Reagan a Republican?
If he is, then the GOP should convince him to run statewide. He's pretty liberal and could work well with the Dem supermajority in the state legislature. But I think he's a Democrat.  
[ Parent ]
Ron Reagan
I'm not even sure that Ron Reagan lives in California. I suppose he might.

I would be shocked if Ron Reagan (outspokenly atheist/agnostic, outspokenly hostile to anything and anyone that even comes close to "social conservative") considers himself a Republican, Unless he just wants to antagonize most other Republicans with the "It's-my-party-too" routine.

At any rate, if Republicans in California have the choice (for the sake of argument) of losing by 25 points behind a bona-fide conservative, or of losing by 24.5 points behind a semi-celebrity liberal... I'd go with the former choice every time.

Age 42. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
Seattle
He lives in Seattle and is a Democrat.  

Zero Dark Thirty for Best Picture!
[ Parent ]
He a leftist Democrat
He bashes the GOP all the time. I watched Hardball until a year or so ago and he would be on every now and then.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
The man spoke at the 2004 DNC
He's an obvious non-starter.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
.
1) Only if the Democrat suffers from scandal.  I have the race at Likely D.  Tisei or Weld would move it to Lean D, as would a divisive Dem primary.  But moving it past Lean D seems nearly impossible now.

2) California for Governor, Maryland for Senate.  Midterms lead to more dropoff in California than in Maryland among Democratic constituencies.  Since Governor elections are always in midterms, I think California is still easier for Republicans.  However, because Maryland is slightly redder than California and doesn't seem to be trending as hard as California (I think the bump this time was more due to Obama being Black), I think Maryland is easier for the GOP to win in a Senate election.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.

The answer to 2 is CA by a country mile
I think it's much easier to win when the minorities you have to win over are Latinos and Asians vs. African-Americans. I should say I don't think either is remotely possible though.  

Zero Dark Thirty for Best Picture!
Mine
1) If Bill Weld runs, then yes, he can put together his '94 coalition, and after factoring in regional qualities for either opponent, as well as demographic shifts over the last 20 years, a modest victory is probably still possible here.

2) Near-to-moderate term? Neither. Long term? Also neither, unless the CA-GOP finds an amazing candidate to run in a 2010-like year.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

ok
1. Yes, but the Dem would have to stumble badly. The state is so blue that if a Dem runs a good campaign, the GOP can run a flawles campaign and still lose. The environment is not likely to be nearly as GOP-friendly as it was in 2010. The GOP candidate would have to run as a Brown-type moderate to make of a race of it. I would start this one at likely D. It isn't safe, but it's the Dems' seat to lose.

2. CA, because of the open primary. A moderate Republican can make the top 2 in a primary by appealing to indies and GOP moderates even though the state GOP is dominated by conservatives. Republicans who are moderate on social and environmental issues and not too conservative on economic issues (e.g. Schwarzenegger) can still compete for the high-profile offices: governor, senator, AG. The other state offices usually degenerate into generic R v. generic D, which is not competitive.

43, Dem-leaning Ind, CA-6 (old CA-5)

MA-Sen
Doug Bennett (R), an ultra-Paulist former Nantucket selectman, is running. http://www.macallfromhome.com/...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
Not much of a website
And it's still better than Ed Markey's.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
My answers
1. It starts with Weld running. I'm not saying nobody else can make it competitive, but Weld is really the right guy here. National Dems will underestimate him because of his departure, and national Rs won't be energized by him because of his unorthodoxy. At the same time, he'll have fun running a quixotic campaign because that's the kind of thing he loves to do. And I think he can catch Markey napping at the last minute just like Brown did in January 2010.

Weld is going to run a lot better of a campaign than any other established name (i.e. Tisei) because he won't be faking it - he's genuinely moderate, and he genuinely enjoys campaigning. And those are the two giant plusses that got him to 71% in 1994.

2. I'll stick up for Maryland, because it takes a tenth as much cash. As a result the candidate can better define him/herself as a person and not Generic R. If you're running as an R in CA you have to self-fund to win even in the best of circumstances. Maryland you can probably win in exceptional cases with a reasonable amount of money.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

MA-Sen: Tisei, Dan Winslow exploring
http://atr.rollcall.com/massac...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
Answers
1. Yes, I think they do, but it requires a lot of things to happen.  Mostly a bloody dem primary that either forces Markey to spend all of his money and he wins or Lynch wins and depresses Democratic turnout.  Then Republicans need a moderate candidate who can appeal statewide, so Tisei or Weld maybe someone else.  And then the Dem turnout machine needs to sit out the election and OFA/3rd parties sit out as well.  All of this is possible, just not very likely.

2. I would say MD, but either is going to be tough.

3. I want Deval Patrick to run, but we know that will not happen.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

I voted for Weld
I'd be just fine with Tisei or Healey, but I can't help but imagine how purely fun a Weld comeback candidacy would be. It'd be an immensely energized and entertaining campaign, win or lose. Now for the questions...

1. Sure. Let's say Lynch runs a passionate grassroots campaign and Markey sleepwalks through the primary, but the former's pro-life views prove too damaging among the D electorate to prevail. Markey wins 52-48. Meanwhile, Tisei or Weld runs a fabulous, exciting campaign and minorities and college students don't turn out in June.

2. Eh...I'm gonna say California. I still think Whitman could've triumphed in 2010 had Allred not completely deflated her campaign's tires. And even if she still narrowly lost, that probably would've been not-bad enough for Cooley to squeak by.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

A question I honestly don't know the answer to -
Which state's Senators live the closest to each other (in official residence, not in DC?) Because if Weld ran and won, he lives a couple blocks away from Warren.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
Franken and Klobuchar
Live within an mile of each other in South Minneapolis (within about 4 miles of where I live). Governor Mark Dayton also lives in that same area

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Do you
ever see any of them around?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
I knew Klobuchar when she was a county attorney
But she has since relocated her family to Maryland. Franken never actually really lived in Minnesota. He essentially moved from New York to Maryland, while keeping a token residence in Minnesota he rarely visits.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Well, I know the furthest
Feinstein in SF and Boxer in the Inland Empire. I'm not sure where Ted Cruz lives; he and Cornyn would be the only ones who can give them a run for their money.
[ Parent ]
Cruz
Ted Cruz lives well inside 610, west of Downtown Houston.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
?
Boxer lives in Marin.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Boxer started in Marin
She's lived in Riverside County for about 10 years now though.
[ Parent ]
Rancho Mirage
Its like Hollywood in the Desert.  IIRC its one of the biggest vacation spots in the state and probably one of the least known.

Its where the Betty Ford center is.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
Reid/Heller
Might not overtake the CA duo, but it's close.  
[ Parent ]
Reid lives in the Ritz in DC...


From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Doesn't Reid live in some town in northern Clark County?
Heller is from the Washoe County, IIRC

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Searchlight
And Heller is from Carson City, which is a little closer to Reid than Washoe.
[ Parent ]
Hagan & Burr
Both live in the Triad, about 25 miles apart as the crow flies.

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
PS
And, ironically, Burr lives off Country Club Road in Winston-Salem while Hagan lives off Country Club Drive in Greensboro.

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
Winston-Salem
There are some really, really forested and pretty (and monied) parts of Winston-Salem near the Wake Forest campus that I passed through multiple times en route to and from North Forsyth HS and my hotel for a debate tournament back in high school. Does Burr live in that area? That area I described must be where all of the Reynolds execs live. It's unsettling how many things at Wake Forest are named "Reynolda" and "Reynolds."

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Burr seems to be a few miles southwest of WF
But by Google Maps it looks like his street is in the part of the city you're talking about.

Hagan appears to live in a very nice section of northern Greensboro.

[ Parent ]
Probably
Burr lives in the 'old money' part of Winston-Salem, Sherwood Forest and Buena Vista which are just southwest of Wake Forest University. It sounds as if you were in that general area. If you took the Silas Creek Parkway toward N. Forsyth you went right through there.

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
Bingo
That all sounds familiar.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Searchlight is about 500 miles away from Carson City
So its still pretty far!
[ Parent ]
Maryland
It was pointed out to me by my relative who was once Sarbanes' CoS that Mikulski and Cardin live very, very close to each other in north Baltimore.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Mikulski lives in Baltimore City, & Cardin lines in Pikesville

[ Parent ]
My bad
In that case, I believe it was Paul Sarbanes, not Cardin, and Barbara Mikulski who lived within a mile of each other when they served together in the Senate. I couldn't remember which Senator lived extremely close to Mikulski. If it's not Cardin, it was Sarbanes.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Delaware's us senators may live live close to each other
Frequently they all live in Northern Wilmington or just north/northwest of the city.

http://i48.photobucket.com/alb...

This is a map showing Biden, Castle and Carper home locations when they were serving together.

South Philly Gay Republican

[ Parent ]
Let's try another state legislator
Maybe state Rep. Matt Beaton. He's from Worcester County, quite young, first won election in 2010 and unchallenged in 2012. Maybe he has the energy to campaign statewide. I also prefer former state Sen. Richard Tisei, but it's better if he tries again in MA-6 in case John Tierney is the nominee again.  
Judith Flanagan Kennedy
Is she related to the Kennedys? She is the mayor of Lynn, Massachusetts.  
lol!
If you knew anything about Mayor Kennedy you wouldn't be asking that question! I like Kennedy a lot but she is blue collar enough to make Stephen Lynch look like Nelson Rockefeller. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
LOL at the wrestling video
Is she a RINO?  
[ Parent ]
She's got my vote!
Somebody register www.DraftJudithFlanaganKennedyforSenate.com domain name ASAP!
[ Parent ]
No way she'll run
I just remembered that she's up for re-election this year. If she gets known statewide as a Republican she's toast back home and the odds of her winning are nowhere near good enough for her to give up the Mayor's office.

Maybe MA-6 in 2014 if Tisei loses... It would be a decidedly unorthodox profile for this seat, but if she cut losses in Lynn, Gloucester, and Beverly she wouldn't need to run far above Generic R in the white-collar parts of the seat.  

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
Scott Brown/Judy Kennedy
Maybe Brown can pick her as his runningmate if he runs for governor in 2014. Maybe some unions who usually endorse Dems would warm up to their ticket.  
[ Parent ]
Brown would benefit from a woman
My top choice is Mary Connaughton for his running mate, but Kennedy wouldn't be a bad pick if he wanted to go all in on the blue collar strategy.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Hmm
Good luck selling her to all of the places in the district (think Manchester, Ipswich, Newbury) that need a social liberal for a Republican to win them in a race for Congress.

Plus, does she even have knowledge of federal issues? She seemed like a surprise winner for the Lynn mayorship.  

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

[ Parent ]
She might be worth a try if Tisei loses in 2014
By that point we'll have tried a candidate with his profile twice and it won't have worked. Might as well shake things up and see if the polar opposite works--you have nothing to lose from it. The exception might be if Bruce Tarr wants to run, but I'd have a hard time seeing him go for it after Tisei lost twice.
[ Parent ]
If Tisei loses in 2014...
If Tisei loses in 2014, we won't conceivably be winning MA-06 any time soon, except in the scenario where Tierney runs again and beats Tisei and then Driscoll runs for an open seat later on in the decade. It could be an interesting idea, I suppose, but I'd imagine Lynn would turn on her faster than you could say "Lynn, Lynn, city of sin" once she advocated for any conservative positions on federal issues.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
I agree
But if she's ready to move on from being Mayor at some point it would at least make for an interesting race.
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure she's that socially conservative
she's just got a very blue collar personality and has union ties. She stuck up for a high school student who was thrown out of class for wearing a T-shirt advocating lesbianism.

As I said below, it's very hard to tell positions on national issues for local officers. But if Tisei runs and loses the Senate race and Tarr doesn't want it, she'd be worth a shot. Lynn will have 3 years to forget about the race if she loses it.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
A "blue collar personality" for MA-06
A Republican candidate with a blue collar personality would play well in Billerica, Tewksbury, Gloucester, Lynn, Salem, and Saugus, but I'm fairly sure the other part of the district (the majority of our potential voting bloc) would not like such a candidate.

MA-06 is sort of a tug of war district, somewhat like CT-05 in that a good portion of the district demands socially liberal/moderate candidates with a courteous tone but a decent sized minority of the district likes blue collar candidates. I still think our path to victory lays in the white collar parts of the district.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

[ Parent ]
Hard to tell
local issues, especially in D strongholds like Lynn, don't bring out clear ideologies most of the time - but she is very tight with the unions (and even worked as a bus driver for a while!) OTOH she cut her pay by 50%.

She laughed off a prospect of a run two days ago, (skip to 48:30 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v... ) but she would be an awesome candidate - against Markey. If she got her name rec up in time Lynch voters would find it even easier to switch to her than Brown. On the other hand she'd be absolutely DOA against Lynch.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
I was torn on who to vote for in the poll
I do think the GOP has a path to victory in MA. Potential for a bloody Dem primary, June special election all work to their advantage. The one thing that has me concern about Weld is his time in New York and his aborted attempt to run for Gov. Weld went on record then saying all kind of stuff about how he was a New Yorker now. Kind of think that will come back to haunt him if he runs.

As for Tisei I think he can run better in a high profile Senate special than he did in his low profile congressional campaign. While everyone who reads RRH knows everything about every election most voters in a presidential year are ill informed about down ballot races. That worked to his disadvantage in his congressional campaign. If he runs for Senate there are no coattails to bring him down and voters who show up at the polls are only doing so to vote in this race.

I think if Lynch pulls an upset primary win than both Tisei and Weld will match up VERY well against him.

As for the MD or CA question I think the answer is MD. CA has turned too institutionally Dem for a GOP candidate who is not a famous actor to win. In MD you can still have a good quality GOP candidate beat a corrupt or inept Dem.

As for othe potential GOP candidates..
Does anyone know if Tom Brady or Carl Yastrzemski are Republicans?
Brady maybe
No idea on Yaz, and I think he lives in Florida. If you want a local sports hero I'd go for Doug Flutie.
[ Parent ]
Doug Flutie for Senate!
Great idea. After all who better for a hail mary victory than Doug Flutie! Flutie endorsed and campaign for Scott Brown in 2010 so he might be a Repulican. Jerry Moran should give him a call.
[ Parent ]
Brady's still an active player anyway


Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Yastrzemski
I forget the context or the exact words, but Ted Kennedy once said something to effect that Yaz had greater appeal and popularity among the voters of Massachusetts than any other living person.

I would guess that Kennedy said that about 30 years ago. Anyway, Yaz was born in 1939 so he'd be 73-74 now.

Age 42. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
Weld
Weld was popular Governor but he still lost for US Senate Race in 96 a Presidential Year with 45%.  I'm really not sure but Massachusetts really does have a lot new voters since he's been Governor.  I think he is best we can do.
Weld
Has anyone done any polling on him?  Do most MA voters even remember him?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
I would say most people over 35-40 remember him well
He was one of those governors that really stood out in terms of personal likability.

As far as polling he trailed Generic D 41-27 back in December. There's a huge difference between him and Brown: Brown would have started around 50/50, Weld starts as a huge underdog who needs everything to go right to have a shot. But I want him to run because I know he'll campaign just as hard and enthusiastically as Brown did in 2010, and that's good for the party even in a losing effort.

[ Parent ]
MO-LG: If Kinder wins the MO-8 race
This is an excellent list of who could run for LG in 2014 (that is, if the legislature passes the new law regarding vacancies, and overrides Nixon's veto). Most of them are very promising candidates. I think they should have included newly elected state Sen. Ryan Silvey in the GOP list.  

http://themissouritimes.com/54...

Dallas County, Harris County, and Bexar County
are moving fast left. Dallas County went from D+4.0 in 2008 to D+5.9 in 2012. Harris County went from R+2.9 in 2008 to R+1.9 in 2012. Bexar moved from R+0.9 to D+0.3.

Meanwhile, Tarrant County moved slightly to the right, going from R+9.6 in 2008 to R+9.9 in 2012. Fort Bend County also moved slightly right (R+4.9 to R+5.4). Williamson County moved several notches to the right, going from R+10.3 to R+13. Travis County moved slightly right (D+11.3 to D+10.5).  

right
The white population is moving out.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
1 point isn't fast left
It could be noise. Two points can be be meaningful, but two elections provide two data points. I was looking at suburban Philadelphia yesterday.

Chester County: D+0.9 to R+2.1
Montgomery County D+6.8 to D+5.3
Bucks County D+0.7 to R+1.4
Delaware County D+6.9 to D+8.9

Is there a trend there? Not sure, but the numbers actually conflict.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
The close-in Delco nabes are going dark blue
Suspect older Rs by heritage are dying off/moving away replaced by Philly D transplants  
[ Parent ]
DelCo
I have a diary on this coming out soon.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Demographics
Delaware's white population declined by 7% from 2000 to 2010, and its black population went up by 5%. None of the other three saw such drastic demographic shifts. When whites are moving out of a county that quickly, our numbers decline.
[ Parent ]
Delco
Another factor is the historical black population, which is fairly substantial for a suburban area, has become as Democratic as the new arrivals.  Republicans used to be somewhat competitive among these voters.  The Republicans used to be somewhat competitive in places like Coatesville, Norristown and Pottstown which have substantial black populations.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Trend
Here is Berks as well:

2004 - R+2.1
2008 - D+1
2012 - R+2.5

The biggest swings from 2004 to 2008 to 2008 appear to be driven by the exurban areas.  They revolted against the Republicans in 2008, but returned in 2012.

I also suspect the Republicans are having problems with the social conservatives in the area who have something of a pacifist streak.

27, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Dallas County
We need to do better with white voters there.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
GA-Sen
State Sen. Steve Thompson (D-Marietta) looking at it. So is Gingrey (ugh!) http://www.mdjonline.com/view/...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
Good news
My dream of a Broun/Gingrey run-off is still alive!

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
Please stop this
The only reason I'm not deleting this is so that you know exactly how annoying this is for the rest of us.
[ Parent ]
Will do
I wouldn't have guessed anyone gave jokes like that more than a passing thought. Sorry!

Democrat, NC-11
[ Parent ]
Phil Gingrey
If Gingrey runs, hopefully he and Broun split the crazy vote in the primary and allow two sane candidates to advance to the runoff.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
MA-Sen: Jack E. Robinson running
as an Indie. http://bluemassgroup.com/2013/...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
as and independent
and should be able to win his own vote and maybe that of his immediate family!  
[ Parent ]
Robinson
Didn't Ted Kennedy defeat him among Republicans and conservatives in the 2000 race?

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Yep
Carla Howell, the Libertarian, almost beat him for second place. The result was 69-12-11, with 8% scattered. You know you have a problem when 19% of the vote goes to largely unknown third party candidates.
[ Parent ]
Antonio Villaraigosa will serve out his term
http://www.laobserved.com/arch...

Woo woo. Aren't we lucky?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

I understand the commitment to serving out his term
This just effectively takes him out of the running for a cabinet position.

I am not sure he really has anywhere he can go politically in his neck of the woods in the near future.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Gallup conservative/moderate/liberal state rankings, 2013
http://www.gallup.com/poll/160...

Wisconsin and Iowa are 2 rather odd outliers on this scale. The Democrats of course do noticably better with white voters (especially white men) there compared to elsewhere.

Ohio and Virginia  end up to the right of the nation on this scale, both being 20% liberal in a 23% nation, with Pennsylvania and Colorado roughly equal to the nation as a whole.

26, R, PA-01.



CO-6; Romanoff running
http://blogs.denverpost.com/th...

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
GA-Sen; Price was preparing for a senate announcement, but now having cold feet?
http://www.ledger-enquirer.com...

Apparently, the thought of going against multiple members of congress that could lead to a shortage of campaign funds is scaring him a bit. I hope he doesn't anyway, as it would likely mean Karen Handel gets in.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

Why?
Why is Karen Handel superior to a proven conservative who is highly intelligent and has a track record of being popular with moderate and conservative voters in the 6th district?

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Handel proved herself in the last gubernatorial contest and in the Komen/PP controversy
She's superior because she has won statewide before, and has a statewide base and is a known entity - along with being pretty talented on the stump. Price is relatively unknown and in a multi-candidate field could get lost in the shuffle. Thus, if Handel were to get in, she would be the instant front runner, whereas Price would be starting about even with Broun and a few others.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
+1
yep. And any Republican that can win 58% countywide in Fulton has got to be a strong candidate.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Winning 58% in Fulton County
Sign Running for Secretary of State is like running in a popularity contest with a hint of partisan nature to it. You're not running on ideology, and intelligent voters don't vote for a SoS on ideology. They vote for one on competency (and bench building) I'd be impressed if she ran for governor and got 58% in Fulton County, but I'm not really all that impressed by a 58% win in Fulton County for the office of secretary of state.

That being said, I think she'd be a strong candidate. I just think Price is smarter and has more upside. I've met him and was incredibly impressed.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

[ Parent ]
County Executive, not SoS
nt

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
County Executive
Alright, well, voters are a lot more willing to vote on competency than on ideology county executive races. Scott Walker was Milwaukee County CE, and look how he did in Milwaukee County when running for governor. He did about six points better (in ruby red 2010) than Mitt Romney did in 2012 in Milwaukee County, but Walker used to win countywide. He only got 37% of the countywide vote when running for governor. Dems will likely have a Fulton County candidate, much like how Walker ran against Barrett. I'm not saying Handel isn't a strong candidate, but I'm saying using that statistic to prove it doesn't satisfy me.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Please stop this
Having met someone and being impressed by them is a fine reason for you to support them, but it's not a reason to tell other people they have to support this candidate as well. It's especially true when you haven't met Handel!  
[ Parent ]
MT-Sen; Daines in no hurry on senate decision
http://m.billingsgazette.com/n...

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
We need a self-funder here I think
nt

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
NE-Gov: Sheehy Resigns After Affair
http://www.omaha.com/article/2...

Wow, ever had a race where the two leading candidates were out within two months of announcing their candidacies?  

Male, LA-06/LA-01 (Home is where the heart is)
Cassidy, Tillis, Rounds, Latham for Senate!  

FPing it
nt

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Just voted for Bill Weld in the poll
As much as I like Richard Tisei, let's save him for a rematch with John Tyranny Tierney or for an open seat battle with Kim Driscoll.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
I think Weld is a socially liberal Tommy Thompson
Certified Pre- owned candidates haven't fared well lately for the R team  
[ Parent ]
The difference here
Weld clearly wants it, whereas Thompson didn't.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17
[ Parent ]
I just think 17 years out of MA politics
Is too much for a sudden "fire in the belly" campaign to overcome
Folks remember he got bored & turned the keys over to Cellucci  
[ Parent ]
Weld gets bored easily
If he won it (and won again in 2014) I'd bet against him lasting to 2020. But what he wants to do he does whole-heartedly... He ran a campaign, against the party favorite, for a worthless nomination, in a state where he had no name rec, in 2006. That's a sign of a guy who likes campaigning - and it seems like the opposite of Thompson who kept waiting around for something he thought he could just stroll into.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Oh, if Weld somehow wins this thing...
...I bet he takes the leap for a presidential run. For the hell of it.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Weld = Big Dig
I think people(who remember) are fond of him personally and proud they voted for him, less because they like him than because it let's otherwise straight-ticket D voters claim there is/was a circumstance where they vote R.

That said I don't believe there is much nostalgia for his Administration, which along with Cellucci's and Swift's, is far more associated with Hackdom and Corruption than anyone could ever hope to even imply about Markey. Weld presided over a the appointment of a series of unqualified hacks to oversee the big dig who then proceeded to be gouged by politically connected firms which used substandard construction materials, acts which led to the death of a woman in 2005.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B...

There is no way Weld, if he gains traction, will be allowed to runaway from the Big Dig or the general climate that existed while he remained in office.

On a wider level, his indifference is seen as a precursor to that of Cellucci and Romney.

Basically, Weld is an opposition researchers wet dream.

25 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally

[ Parent ]
The thing with Weld
If he enters this, I could see him holding an hours-long press conference with the media to hash out all of his baggage. He'll combat everything out of the starting gate.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Weld & boredom
Weld's first term was brilliant. He may have done more than any recent Governor in turning around the body politic of MA and making it a fiscally competitive state; instead of the Athens of America.

Having done that, and with the 92 Presidential cycle given Whitey Bulger's bro a lifetime vetoproof lock on the legislature he looked elsewhere in a futile Senate bid v. Kerry and a quixotic bid for a diplomatic post.

He wins; high probability he doesn't even run in 14  

[ Parent ]
Interesting thought on Scott Brown

Reading this article about the new MAGOP Chairwoman, I was struck by one paragraph.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2013/02/02/quincy-singer-takes-less-glamorous-role-massgop-chairman/wpgRHQbdWDrRNE6JdEk6GP/story.html?s_campaign=sm_tw

"As she contends with such criticism, she must also face the challenge of uniting a party torn over its direction. Nearly half the members of the GOP State Committee voted against Hughes for chairwoman. Some of those who backed her only did so at Brown’s urging."

Perhaps Brown was not wanting his pick for MAGOP Chair to win as a precondition to run, but instead was waiting to announce he would not run until he was certain she had won.



libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04
White House releases photo
http://www.philly.com/philly/n...

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
No electoral meaning, but ...
I read somewhere lining out reasons why he believes the thing is photoshopped.

Now, of course, we had that with his birth certificate as well, but the picture does look odd.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
It looks odd because he clearly isn't sheet shooting
the muzzle is WAY too low. Or, he is absolutely terrible at it, and fired way to late.

I doubt the White House would photoshop something like this. Far more likely is this was a staged photoshoot for PR. I actually believe that is what this is.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Me too
I must admit when I saw this I thought: 'Really? What were they thinking??'

I can't imagine how this could make the slightest bit of difference to anyone from a political standpoint.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
If it's not real...
They released this for pure political reasons, to show Obama is a sportsman and that he doesn't want to take all your guns. If it's staged, it just feeds that belief and the one where he's inauthentic and untruthful.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
The article makes no mention
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Anyone who has ever even watched someone shoot skeet knows that you shoot skeet up in the air. Obama seems to be shooting straight, meaning that he has the fastest reflex skills known to man or that he's waiting until the skeet is about to hit the ground.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Skeet birthers
Let me first say that I'm certainly not a "skeet birther" or whatever they're talking about toward the end of the article. I have no doubt the president fired a gun in the vague general direction of a skeet..

As I basically said, my 'what were they thinking' reaction involved (a) how silly and contrived the photo-op looks; and (b) I cannot imagine how this would change anyone's mind about Obama's gun control initiative. Those who are on board don't need persuading, and those who think he's out to take their guns will, if anything, be antagonized.

Might I note that I live in the mountains of North Carolina. There are three gun shops within reasonable walking distance and another half dozen within 'I'm determined to shoot up a mall' walking distance. I even know where to go sit and pretend like I'm fishing if I want to buy a gun out of the back of someone's pickup, no questions asked..

So, my point is, I remember quite well the Great Ammo Panic of 2008 (Obama's not gonna ban guns, he'll just ban the bullets!) Those people are not going to be persuaded by a somewhat ridiculous photo of Obama trying to hit the side of a barn.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
I know
this is Dukakis in the tank all over again.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
I mean, considering his bowling ability...


Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Things getting worse for Bob Menendez
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

http://thehill.com/homenews/se...

Helping an ophthalmologist/campaign contributor get a port security contract seems like a bad idea. Who would've thought Dominican prostitutes wouldn't be the biggest allegation?

What I want to know is how someone who doesn't have a high net worth can write a check for $58,500?

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-G...

This comes at the worst time for Democrats, because if Menendez resigns there'll be a Republican there for some period of time. Menendez could've decided to forego re-election last summer and none of this would've mattered.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

The port contract and the hookers are part of the same allegation
Its quid pro quo. Melgen gave Sen Menendez campaign cash, flew him on private trips to the Dominican Republic and provided him with underaged prostitutes in exchange for Menendez's support in winning the port contracts.

As for the $58,500 check Menendez wrote a couple of weeks ago it is no different than what Rep Gregory Meeks did when he got caught taking $40,000 from Ed Ahmad. Its a BS defense. What the Breitbart article is making clear is that Menendez isnt an uber rich multi-millionaire who goes around spending $58,500 on vacations. When Menendez took those trips from Melgen he had no intention of paying for it and only wrote that check 3 years after the fact because he got caught and knows he could be facing criminal charges.

[ Parent ]
I think Menendez may have IRS issues
Sounds like he received income he didn't pay tax on  
[ Parent ]
Which is why he wrote that $58,500 check
Taking free gifts is illegal while being delinquent in paying your bills is not. But its total BS. Menendez only paid for the trips because he got caught and his lawyers told him to.  
[ Parent ]
The scandal
I doubt the Dominican hookers angle goes anywhere. Yes, it's illegal. But it's he said she said.

What you're alleging is that Menendez took the trips in return for political favors. That rises to Duke Cunningham-William Jefferson level of corruption. This isn't a "Did Maxine Waters ask for special treatment for a specific bank?" I do wonder where he got the $58.5k to pay back Melgen.

The "he forgot to pay the bill" can probably be sloughed off as a Claire McCaskill forgetting to pay her taxes sort of thing. You'll need a Blago-esque smoking gun for the quid pro quo. Even John Ensign's $96k check wasn't proof of a pay off.

Of course this scandal is getting worse every day. Melgen may talk and reveal new things.

Terry McAuliffe better hope he's squeaky clean here. The problem is that with a shady guy like Melgen it's likely no one is.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Whose the VA Dem's Plan B?
Assuming McAuliffe winds up tainted, who else do the VA democrats have?

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"
[ Parent ]
Warner?
They were basically begging him to stay in the Senate - if McAuliffe goes down they may ask him to swoop in, because I think the idea of Gov. Cuccinelli is far worse to VA Dems than losing a Senate seat.

The other option is probably Northam moving up from LG. At this point it's getting to be too late for anyone but Warner to develop a statewide infrastructure from scratch in time.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
Perriello?
I doubt he would win, but the liberal grassroots likes him enough that he'd have an easier time setting up a campaign than most others.
[ Parent ]
The problem for McAuliffe
Is that allegations are likely to surface. Some might be true. Some might be false. There is also a lot of business as usual stuff that isn't illegal but is questionably ethical that will come up in any investigation like this one. These allegations could surface at any time in the campaign. Even things that no one would normally notice could turn into a big deal. You just don't know.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Melgen doesnt strike me as the fall on the sword kind of guy
IMHO Melgen seems like the kind of guy who would rat out his own mother if he had to. If Menendez's political future depends upon Melgen taking one for the team, Gov Christie can start accepting resumes for a soon to be vacant Senate seat.
[ Parent ]
My thoughts
1.  There is a path to victory, but the path isn't that wide.   I'm rating this seat somewhere between Likely D to Safe D.  My rating might change based on the quality of GOP candidates.

2.  My vote goes to CA.

Alan Grayson
He's been disappointingly quiet and inoffensive in his first month back on the Hill.

PSTChrisP, I think you've said he's your new Rep... go prod him with a stick until he says something outrageous and media worthy!

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

I was thinking the same thing
Very strange how quiet hes been.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Might have learned from 2010
Considering we didn't hear anything from him last year, I imagine he's intentionally being more reserved. Considering he got the lowest % of any incumbent Democrat not in an overwhelmingly Republican district, he might be taking a more "Nose to the grindstone" liberalism. He's got a decently Democratic district, but he'd still probably have lost it if he was running like he did in 2010.

Also, he might be worried about a Puerto Rican Primary challenger, since this district's Democrats are probably ~40% Puerto Rican, and they're growing fast.  Being "The Orlando Democrat" is probably more useful than being the National Liberal Icon.

22, Libertarian Republican CA-14
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
Fun for Super Bowl Sunday
Ed Rendell sang the national anthem at a Celtics game, wearing a Patriots jersey, after losing a Super Bowl bet to Mitt Romney in 2005: http://www.politico.com/galler...
kudos for being a man of his word


I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Johanns will support Hagel
http://journalstar.com/news/lo...

Bet he gets 4 Republican votes. (Cochran, Johanns, Collins, Murkowski)

I suppose Hoeven, Alexander, or Corker might vote yes. I think Alexander is the most likely of these three.

22/Male/Dem./Native of OH-16, Now NC-04(Graduate School).

Favorite Republicans: Lisa Murkowski and Richard Lugar.  

I think he may feel like
he owes Hagel something. Hagel endorsed Johanns in the 1998 Republican gubernatorial primary at a critical time and Johanns had often said that it was very important in helping him win. So while he says that Hagel earned his vote, I tend to think he may have felt like he owed Hagel some payback too.

41, R, NE-1.
[ Parent ]
MA-Sen: Middlesex DA Gerry Leone considering
http://bostonherald.com/news_o...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
Not waiting to see if MA05 opens is he?
That would seem the next rung  
[ Parent ]
Middlesex DA has been the AG-in-waiting for years
The last 3 state AG's have been Middlesex DA's first. When he announced he was retiring last month, I assumed Leone had given up on waiting Coakley out, since she could be AG for another 15 years.

I suppose he could be interested in Markey's seat. He lives in MA-04, but residency has never stopped Massachusetts Dems before.

[ Parent ]
Charlie Baker
Let me float something - Charlie Baker for Treasurer. It would seem the logical place for him to end up if Brown runs and Grossman vacates it. Do folks think he'd be interested?

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
Barney Bush's Dog
G W Bush Scottish Terrier Barney has Passed Away.  I really loved his Christmas videos they were so fun to watch.  Total Dog Lover here it really hurts when they go to great lights.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ti...

Bush is great painter too

Yeah, I saw that. Shame.
There's no way anyone could be partisan over dogs, right?
He reached a fairly decent age though at 13.  
[ Parent ]
I always enjoyed "Barney cam"
And I'm a liberal and not particularly a dog fan.
It was one cute dog!

22/Male/Dem./Native of OH-16, Now NC-04(Graduate School).

Favorite Republicans: Lisa Murkowski and Richard Lugar.  
[ Parent ]
Weekend Open Thread & Poll | 146 comments
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