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RRH's 2014 General Election Preview Series:

Part 3 - Midwest/West House

Part 2 - Row Officers

Part 1 - Legislatures and Local

The Current RRH Race Ratings:




Row Officers

Q2 Fundraising

Weekend Open Thread Part II

by: shamlet

Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 21:47:35 PM EST

Time to move to a new venue.

Bonus Question -

Which Republicans does Hagel get, and does he lose any Dems?

shamlet :: Weekend Open Thread Part II
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I'm gonna say Hagel nets Johanns, Cochran and Chambliss and loses Johnson and Pryor.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at

Hagel goes 0 x 45 with GOP Senators
That's my hoped-for result, and right now I don't think it's an unrealistic one. From the standpoint of party-politics, Hagel has stood with Colin Powell as the media's favorite anti-Republican Republicans for the last several years. So there's no partisan reason to support him. From the standpoint of competence and experience in running a large federal bureaucracy, Hagel obviously brings nothing to the table. Absolutely nothing whatsoever beyond managing his own Senate office for 12 years. From a policy standpoint, his testimony reveals a man who is every bit as oblivious and out-of-touch as liberals like to claim Sarah Palin is. I suppose there is a chance the Nebraska Senators will vote for him. I would be very disappointed if anyone else does, though.

Not sure if any Dems will bail on him or not. I think Schumer/Durbin will tell the White House to withdraw the nomination if they see that it won't survive on the floor.

Age 44. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

Thad Cochran has already said he will vote for him

[ Parent ]
And Johanns

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at

[ Parent ]
I think Hagel gets 6 GOP votes, 61-39 vote
Confirmed 61 to 39.
Republican Yes votes: Cochran, Johanns, Chambliss, Collins, Murkowski, Alexander.

Maybe Corker or Hoeven instead of or in addition to Alexander.

I think he gets all the Dems.

Wild Card yes vote: McConnell. If Hagel somehow gets to 8 or 10 votes, McConnell will vote yes.

I think all Dems vote yes.

Mainstream Dem.  

[ Parent ]
Cochran for Hagel
That is a shame. I know Cochran has chosen the "go-along-to-get-along" path for all these 34 years, but he is making a bad mistake, IMHO.

Age 44. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
Get ready to be disappointed ...
He'll net at least(!) Cochran, Johanns, Collins and Murkowski.

I'd be shocked if he'll lose a single Democrat. They seem to have greater Party discipline and I doubt that any of them (Landrieu, Pryor, etc) think they'll fall over one confirmation vote - and as 2012 has shown, Democrats can get away with a horrifying voting record in conservative states.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
It's not necessarily party discipline
it's that Congress traditionally defers to the President for appointments. That's dwindling in this age of polarization, so we're down to a couple of Senators willing to cross the aisle for these votes. But a confirmation vote is still not quite a normal roll call vote.

I think they're right to do it, as are Democrats who vote for GOP nominees. The President should have the power to name the leaders of the executive.

Voting down judges I don't even mind so much-- it seems like a good idea for Executive and Legislative branches to agree on judicial appointments-- but executive appointees should just go through unless a giant scandal comes out.

[ Parent ]
Bill Weld or bust
Tisei passes on the race, saying that the "timing is simply not right." That translates to me as, "My probable loss would damage my prospects for a 2014 rematch", but who knows.

Regarding Hagel, I think he might be capped at Johanns and Cochran. I doubt Fischer would back him, both because she seemed thoroughly unimpressed at his hearing and he endorsed Kerrey.

The fact that he even has two Republicans is a shame in and of itself. I'm all for deference to the president when it comes to cabinet picks, but Hagel's confirmation hearing was SO BAD. SO BAD. If Hagel is confirmed after that train wreck, the Senate may as well just eliminate the practice of confirmation hearings for cabinet appointments altogether.


My translation
"Someone else has already sewn up the support." Tisei seemed extremely serious about it for 24 hours but something abruptly changed his thinking. Just being scared about damaging himself would not prompt a massive ramp-up and then a just-as-quick exit in the span of two days... that's not even enough time to do a poll.

Whether that someone else is Weld or Winslow is now the big question.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
It's clear after the last two elections that a dollar spent against an Akin or an Angle is worth more than a generic ad against a McCaskill or a Reid.  

21, Thatcherite,

[ Parent ]
Karl Rove - Super Genius (Wile E Coyote stance)
While I agree that the Akin's (who aren't tea party) and O'Donnell's (who are) need to be stopped, Rove's record isn't all that hot.

Karl Rove was deputy Chief of Staff of Bush from 05 to 07. That is the same time trouble really started brewing for the Bush administration.

Karl Rove was 0-fer in Michigan. Lost the 2000 primary. Lost in 2000 and 2004 (and he shouldn't have lost 04). Crossroads lost here in 2012.  He also ran his mouth and did a 1/2way McCain statement here (MI) in the last election. He later said it was competitive in the last two weeks, but the earlier comment did major damage. Major. If he was the genius he claimed he was, he'd keep his mouth shut, stay off of Fox (if he's running crossroads) and do what needs to be done to win.

Now he's getting involved in primaries. Great. A quote from Coach Bob Knight comes to mind. "You (bleeped) it up to begin with, now just sit there or leave."  Knight was addressing a media person who misrepresented him. Rove embarrassed himself and spent a lot of political capital losing hundreds of millions of dollars from donor money and got bad results. His back is against the wall and he needs to redeem himself and his thought process. The think with these national consultants is that it is of course NEVER their own fault. It's always the fault of others. That's how they keep getting their paycheck and these hanger-ons stay around. It can't be the fault of "super genius" but it is the fault of those "tea party people."

Reality is that this year the only one I can pin on the tea party is Mourdock. Akin wasn't tea party (although some tea party backed him after the fact due to the attacks against him by Rove). Romney wasn't tea party. His election day operations are legendary bad with Project Orca. His sign policy also hurt us badly.  In 2010, you could point to Angle and O'Donnell as tea party, but this year you had establishment candidates lose too. Both sides have their good (Rob Portman, Pat Toomey) and bad (Tommy Thompson, Richard Mourdock).

If Steven Law at Crossroads really wants to do this right and be actually pragmatic instead of being another NRSC racket (Chafee, Crist, Specter all over again), he'll need to learn the territory of these areas in depth. He'll need to talk to the experts on the group and learn from them. REAL experts - away from the DC bubble. These experts are those who understand how things work in each individual state - people that live there. If Law tells Rove and DC consultants to back off, this may work.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Evangledis for Senate?
I was wondering why he wasn't being talked about more as a candidate...and still am not sure why he wasn't mentioned. But, he says "The phone has been ringing off the hook, people have been complimentary and supportive and I appreciate that, but I haven't had time to think about it."

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  

He'd work IMO
Probably he's not getting the buzz as his political base is way beyond 128.

Dude's a lawyer & former state rep who won his sheriff's race easily in 2010. Now winning Worcester County is a prerequisite for a statewide R win in MA; but he did do it.  Bio gives a bit of a blue collar vibe to it; so he could have appeal to disgruntled Lynch supporters.  

I'd rather run a "might be" than a "has been" in a speculative race like MASen  

[ Parent ]
richard tisei
Richard Tisei not running in open senate seat.

This has been discussed already
Check out the first open thread.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
It's in the Brown thread
Check there

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Super Bowl
From a political standpoint, this is quite a depressing Super Bowl.

The Bay Area's so repulsively thoroughly liberal... but Baltimore spawned Nancy Pelosi... who's now in the Bay Area... and Maryland produced the Glendenningmander and now the O'Malleymander.  

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Glendenning and O'Malley
were both immigrants from the DC area.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
And, also, without Montgomery and PG
Ehrlich would have been comfortably re-elected.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Wouldn't he have been reelected without Baltimore City?

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Frightening :(

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
RRH is officially neutral
One moderator from Maryland, and one from the Bay Area.  

[ Parent ]
I'd got with Baltimore
For starters, Republicans can actually win things in the Baltimore area.  The Eastern Shore, Anne Arundel county, and the outer Baltimore Suburbs all vote Republican.

On the other hand, I don't think there's a city within 40 miles of San Francisco that McCain won.  The closest is probably in San Joaquin county (the central valley), which is closer to the Raiders anyway.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
I'm rooting for Baltimore because both I was impressed with Joe Flacco's raw talent in his days at Delaware and wanted my Bears to draft him and because I've just always found the Ravens to be one of the more fun NFL teams to watch.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Atherton, California
Whitman and Fiorina did win Atherton, 30 miles south of San Francisco. McCain didn't.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Oh I know
That's why I said McCain and not "Republicans"

Still, Atherton (and the similar city Hillsborough) is basically where the Bay Area Millionaires live, and Republicans can usually only barely win them.  McCain didn't even win a single precinct in either city IIRC.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
That's a strange metric
That's an awfully strange metric given that, you know, McCain wasn't exactly the ideal Republican candidate for NorCal.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
There isn't an ideal Republican candidate for Norcal
Bill Weld could run here and win maybe 30% of the Bay Area vote, max.

besides, it sounds better than "No city withing 60-ish miles of SF voted Republican except for a small city full of retired millionaires, where we can sometimes break even.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"

[ Parent ]
Not a city,
but I went on DRA and McCain won the CDP of Diablo in Contra Costa County.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
He also got something like 49% each
in the adjacent towns of Alamo and Tassajara.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
considering my recent track record
I'm better off NOT rooting for anybody.
(Both teams I rooted for in the AFC & NFC division games lost)

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Baltimore over SF
I'll take a cesspit over Sodom. Just kidding! Seriously, though, I'm rooting for Baltimore.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Is MA SoS Bill Galvin a potential candidate for Governor?
He was considered a rising star in the Democratic party when he moved up from the legislature in '94, and has been known to want to move up before; in '06 he was considered so close to announcing for Governor that candidates began announcing for SoS on the presumption he was running. He decided against running at the last minute in late '05, presumably intimidated by his competition in Reilly, Gabrieli, and Patrick. But Grossman is in an entirely different tier of less intimidating competition.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."

-- Stanisław Lem

he self-promotes constantly. But word was he really wanted to succeed Coakley as AG after she was (hypothetically) elected to the Senate. At this point he's getting up there in years, this could be his shot to take. But other than his usual constant ads* he's not doing anything extra to raise his profile.

*(They tend to go something like this with him talking against a white background - the Secretary of State's office is great, it's really great, oh, and by the way, you should register to vote.)

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Shamlet's not kidding
"Voter registration is important. That's what we have a Secretary of State. My office loves when people register to vote. Don't forget to vote--and did I mention, I'm Bill Galvin, your Secretary of State!"

[ Parent ]
Sounds like Cahill's lottery ads (nt)

libertarian Republican, TX-14/MN-04

[ Parent ]
Weird fact of the day
in 1989, the incumbent mayor of Bridgeport, CT lost in the Republican primary.

R - MD-7

MA-Sen: Winslow Sounds Like He's In
Buzz is Evangelidis is in as well

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
One will step aside. We can't have a primary here. Both are our best candidates (other than Weld) but I'd prefer to see Evangelidis. I feel like he's slightly stronger. What do our MA peeps think?  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  

[ Parent ]
I'm tentatively with Winslow
He seems like a better campaigner and is more moderate. Check out Winslow's website - that's a pretty good site, which he developed for a State Rep. race. Evangelidis doesn't even have a personal twitter account from what I can tell. My big concern with Winslow is that he seems very dry and unexciting so I'm leaving myself the option to be swayed.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I like Evangelidis
And I don't know Winslow well enough to pass judgement on him. Winslow certainly has the better base, as there's a ton of inside-495 (and, at the next level, inside-128) bias among the Boston media.

Evangelidis has nothing to lose by running. Worcester County is Republican enough at the state level that so long as he performs respectably, a statewide loss won't end his career in county politics. I just worry that he'd get 60% in Worcester but never make much of an impact east of 495.

[ Parent ]
Well, there goes Mitch Landrieu's political statde-wide future.

Mitch Landrieu and the loss of power
I guess you'e being facetious, but Mitch Landrieu was already going nowhere in terms of statewide elected office.

I don't know who, exactly, is in charge of maintaining the Superdome and making sure the lights work, etc. But if it really is the responsibility of the City of New Orleans, then the incredible thing is not that a few Dome lights went out for a few minutes, but that any lights ever come on at all.

Age 44. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.

[ Parent ]
as my friend commented
This time it was the rich people stuck in the Superdome.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.

[ Parent ]
Menendez in Politico
But in New Jersey, that may not be enough to topple the Hudson County political boss,

Garden State voters have endured a lot from their politicians, including gay extramarital affairs, campaign donations with ties to North Korea and the largest federal corruption bust in history.

Read more:

On the first page Politico suggests that these charges might topple a senator somewhere else, but not in New Jersey. Then, on page 3, they mention the situations listed above. How did that go for McGreevey and Torricelli?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

More Menendez Trouble
Melgen's plane flew from the Dominican Republic to Palm Beach to Teterboro to the Dominican Republic on Easter Sunday-  around the time the two prostitutes alleged to have been with Menendez.

If this is the link that finally brings him down, bravo to Breitbart. First Weiner and then Menendez.  

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  

This is going to keep getting worse
These guys know there are more facts to come out and yet they think they somehow won't.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
From the grave, he pulls leftists' careers in with him.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
NY-1, 2, and 3
The guys at DKE have managed to come up with the Presidential vote breakdown by congressional district for Suffolk county, NY. While Nassau County isn't yet available, we can estimate the vote for Nassau county.

NY-1 (official) Obama 49.6%-49.1%
This puts it at R+1.7, same as 2008. That should be winnable at some point in the next 10 years.

NY-2 (estimated) Obama 53.1%-45.8%
The district is 56.0%-42.9% in Suffolk, so it could be even more Obama. That's D+1.7. The district was R+2.0 in 2008. If Peter King retires, this district is competitive.

NY-3 (estimated) Obama 52.0%-47.0%
Romney won the Suffolk portion of the district, so it's around D+0.6 in 2012 after being D+0.3 in 2008. Someday Steve Israel might be in actual trouble.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

The Nassau portions of NY2 are very R
We are talking King's base in Massapequa, Wantagh & Seaford  

[ Parent ]
Interesting numbers
Suburban New York is sort of the opposite of suburban Philly in that both are competitive on the presidential level, but New York (at least on Long Island) seems to prefer sending Democrats to the House, while SEPA prefers Republicans. The same isn't true downballot, as the GOP holds all the Senate seats on Long Island.

[ Parent ]
The 3 Dems on LI won due to R debacles
Bishop won because Grucci's fireworks plant had environmental issues & Grucci's campaign made poorly researched charges Bishop covered up a rape crisis at his college ( he was a Dean)

Israel won because the GOP & CPNY ran separate candidates to replace Rick Lazio. Better candidate on both lines holds the seat  

McCarthy won because her opponent was pro NRA in a huge gun control district & her husband was shot on the LIRR by a psycho

Once in these guys stayed in. Incumbency is huge in the nation's priciest media market  

[ Parent ]
Are the two comparable?
SEPA has always preferred Republicans and still prefers Republicans on a local level. Their perception is that the national party has moved to the right on abortion and become too Christian. So they don't vote Republican for President.

Long Island is more swingy on a Presidential level. There's some swing on a congressional level but they have strong incumbents, no open seats since 2000, and weak Republican challengers.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]

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