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Political Roundup for February 8, 2013

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Fri Feb 08, 2013 at 07:00:00 AM EST


President
Rubio: Time does a profile of the immigrant background of Florida Senator Marco Rubio and how it impacts his political stances and his role in helping the Republican Party.

Congress

MA-Sen: William "Mo" Cowan was sworn into the US Senate today by Vice President Biden.  Cowan will serve until a winner is declared in the June special election to replace Secretary of State Kerry.

More MA-Sen: Republican State Representative Dan Winslow announced his candidacy for the June special election on Thursday.  Winslow has until March 6 to file 10,000 certified signatures of registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters to make the primary ballot.

GA-Sen: Congressman Paul Broun is known for his heated rhetoric, but he is taking a more reserved tone on the campaign trail as he is focusing on his fiscal conservative credentials.  I think this is a smart strategy by Broun.  There is a strong faction within the Georgia GOP that will want a candidate who focuses on fiscal issues and it plays to Broun's strengths over his weaknesses.  We will see how long this lasts.

CA-35: Former Representative Joe Baca wants back in Congress and he wants revenge against current Representative Gloria Negrete McLeod who defeated Baca by 12 points in the top-two Democratic battle royale in November.  Roll Call goes into depth how this feud is nothing new and few are surprised Baca wants back.

MI-12: Congressman John Dingell has come out with serious reservations to the recommendations of Vice President Biden's gun panel.  Dingell, whose largely voted with the NRA except the previous assault weapons ban, has expressed skepticism of the effectiveness of an assault weapon ban.  If the President cannot get the likes of Dingell on board, any gun control legislation is DOA.

IA-1: With Representative Bruce Braley running for Senate, the floodgates have opened among potential candidates.  Roll Call looks at several candidates on both sides for this Democratic leaning seat.

IL-2: Cook County Chief Administrative Officer Robin Kelly has released the first ad of the IL-2 special election.  She is focusing on gun issues, which are big in violence plagued Chicago neighborhoods of IL-2.

States
NJ-Gov: Further evidence that Governor Chris Christie has strong bipartisan support for his reelection bid:  State Senator and Union City Mayor Brian Stack (D) has endorsed Christie for reelection.  Stack has a significant say over the Hudson County Democratic machine, but don't start betting Christie will carry Hudson County.

FL-Gov: Former GOP strategist Roger Stone is exploring a Libertarian bid for Florida Governor.  He seems to be interested in running on a liberty agenda including cutting spending, legalizing pot, gay marriage, abortion, and open borders.  

NE-Gov: Nebraska State Treasurer Don Stenberg is not giving up on a promotion as he is considering a run for Governor in 2014.  In case you forgot, Stenberg ran for Senate last year and lost the primary.  Stenberg is up for Treasurer and planned to run for that office again until Lt. Gov. Rick Sheehy resigned last week.

PA County Parties: Politics PA explores the best county party chairs on both sides in Pennsylvania.  No real huge surprises there as it highlights the state's machine driven politics.

Canada
Redistricting: Here is a very interesting piece on the Canadian redistricting process and how gerrymanders still arise under their system in the eyes of some.
Ryan_in_SEPA :: Political Roundup for February 8, 2013
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Political Roundup for February 8, 2013 | 110 comments
MA-SEN signatures
The real deadline is February 27th.  That's the last day signatures can be given to town clerks for certification.  The clerks then have a week to verify them, before they give them back to the candidates who then have to, themselves, take them all to Beacon Hill and drop them off at Galvin's office.  My state rep (Carl Sciortino) once had to run a sticker campaign because he managed to lose his papers between when they were certified by Somerville and Medford and turning them in to the Secretary of the Commonwealth.

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7
lol
That just seems like a great way to cause chaos.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Yeah
It doesn't help that it's winter.  I'm sure they're not getting many signatures this weekend...

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7
[ Parent ]
Unless they offer to shovel driveways in exchange for signatures!

[ Parent ]
IA-Sen: Des Moines Register
Same old.

https://www.desmoinesregister....

Aside from Tom Vilsack, Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Latham and Braley are the only others of the eight whom more Iowans like as candidates than do not.

Forty percent of Iowans think Latham is an appealing candidate; 36 percent view Braley as appealing.

26, R, PA-01.



Brian Stack
probably doesn't have significant say over the Hudson Democratic machine.  He has been in a turf battle with the HCDO for years and doesn't get along with longtime North Bergen state senator Nick Sacco.  Still, Stack is a huge get for Christie and any inroads he can make into Hudson make his life easier.  Look for something similar in Essex with County Executive Joe DiVincenzo.

For those outside NJ, you should be in awe of Nick Sacco's strength and stamina.  He is 66 and pretty overweight but he holds down an amazing 3 public jobs!  And if you were skeptical that he accomphish this, he claims that he does them better than anyone else can.

35, Republican, NJ-11  

no way with Joe V
He will always play nice with Christie.  They are actually childhood (and still) friends, unlike Booker and Christie, where it's a political friendship that is sometimes called a personal one.  But he will endorse Buono publicly and say nice things about her.  He's got his own turf war going on and endorsing a Republican would be too much for him to handle right now.  
[ Parent ]
MI-GOV
Poll Says Both Debbie Stabenow, Mark Schauer Hold Narrow Edges over Republican Rick Snyder If Either Decides to Run for Governor in 2014. - iMIpolitics

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Stabenow
Why would Stabenow want to give up a lifetime in the Senate for a max two terms as Governor?

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker
[ Parent ]
At this point, two terms probably won't matter
Stabenow would be in her 70's in 2022.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  
[ Parent ]
The same reason
Sam Brownback, Jon Corzine, Pete Wilson, Lawton Chiles and Dirk Kempthorne would. Being Governor is an infinitely preferable job for some people, since they get to be an executive as opposed to 1 of 100 and don't have to commute between wherever they are from and Washington, DC.  

21, Democrat, CO-4  
[ Parent ]
How did that decision work out for Jon Corzine?
I think if he could go back in time he's take his Senate seat back in a flash!
[ Parent ]
Stabenow probably won't run, Schauer probably will
Unless Stabenow has a burning desire to leave DC, she'll probably stay there. She doesn't have to give up her senate seat however to run for governor.

Schauer has nothing to lose by running.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
KY-Sen; Judd is probably running
@ShaneGoldmacher: MT @AshleyJudd Finally, I did it! [S]ign up to be on my list: http://t.co/IwJFwvIP You'll be the first to know, well, all sorts of things.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
Someone pop the popcorn.
This one's going to be fun.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Go for it, Ash
Unless you're pro-life and pro-gun, you probably ain't crossing 45 percent in this state.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
EVen more important is being pro-coal
and Judd flunks that test badly.

Christie 2016  
[ Parent ]
Obama got 37.8%
I don't see Judd topping that.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Given McConnell's middling approval, I could see it
In fact, I can fathom some early polls actually showing Judd within striking distance. Once McConnell and the PACs go up on the air, though, she'll be completely toast. Something like a 56-43 result seems likeliest to me. That is if she even runs, which I suspect is 50/50 at best.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
KY-Sen? I thought TN is her home?

[ Parent ]
She was actually born in California
As a child, she and her family moved to Kentucky and I think by the '90s she was living full-time in Tennessee.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
But she was a UK basketball cheerleader
Words cannot describe how important college basketball is to these people. Judd is hoping people associate her with positive sports memories.
[ Parent ]
Didn't Richie Farmer and Scotty Baesler lose?
People may love their basketball there, but it's not an automatic win. Richard Petty in NC is another example with NASCAR and North Carolina.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  
[ Parent ]
Jon Runyan
I thought that Runyan would clobber Adler in 2010 simply because he played for the Philadelphia Eagles for years. While it gave him strong name recognition, I don't think it got him many votes. He won by 2.7%, about what you'd expect in that district in 2010.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Adler wasn't a bad fit there
He was a pretty moderate guy and laid off the partisan red meat. Runyon would've pancaked a Netroots candidate  
[ Parent ]
Runyan
I was in the district during the election and Runyan's background wasn't much of a topic. I didn't get the feeling that being an Eagle won him many votes at all.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Best example here
is Tom Osborne and Nebraska. He is by far the most revered person in the state of Nebraska for his time as Nebraska football coach. When he entered the 2006 governor's race, nearly everybody(including myself) thought he would walk right into the governor's mansion with ease. People actually felt sorry for Dave Heineman because he was a good man that just had the misfortune of being around when Tom Osborne ran. But then a funny thing happened-people started looking at Tom Osborne as a politician, and not as a football coach. And the once unthinkable happened-Osborne lost.
So if the widely revered coach that brought 3 national championships to a state that is every bit as crazy(if not more) about its football as Kentucky is about its basketball couldn't get elected statewide, I hardly think Ashley Judd's status as an ex-Kentucky cheerleader will win her many votes. We aren't even remotely close to the same impact and plus, Osborne at least accurately reflected the state's politics-Judd doesn't. Bottom line Ashley Judd being an ex_Kentucky cheerleader means virtually nothing.

41, R, NE-1.
[ Parent ]
Immigration
IIRC, Heineman won in large part due to his veto of a bill that would have given in-state tuition for illegal immigrants.  Osborne supported the legislation, and got crushed in the rural areas.

While I think it is paramount for the GOP to pass an immigration reform bill to be viable for future Presidential elections, there could be a significant cost in lower base turnout in 2014.  

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
That was a factor
and it was the general media explanation for Heineman winning, but from somebody that followed the campaign from start to finish here in Nebraska, I can say that was not the major factor. The major factor was quite simply people decided to look at Tom Osborne as a politician and not as a football coach.
He won the 3rd District House seat on name recognition and popularity alone. But Heineman signaled early on that he was going to fight hard in the governor's race, and it forced Osborne to actually campaign. He then had to try and be a politician, and it was clear that he just wasn't comfortable in the role. I don't believe it was actually Osborne's stance on the illegal immigration issue that hurt him as much as the fact that he was flummoxed by the issue and didn't know how to adequately respond when Heineman came on the attack. It showed that he simply was not cut out for politics.  

41, R, NE-1.
[ Parent ]
They show her at NCAA Tourney games every year
With the little painted paw on her cheek.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
'Blood Feud' Between Baca, Negrete McLeod
http://www.rollcall.com/news/b...

Some Democrats - especially Negrete McLeod backers - hold out hope Baca will run in the 31st District this cycle. But Baca told the Press-Enterprise that his sights are set on unseating Negrete McLeod.

Heh. The 35th is conservative enough that Republican voters have a large, if not decisive, impact on the election.

Pass the popcorn.

26, R, PA-01.



Lol, you and I both posted about popcorn at about the same time.
Perhaps we should organize an RRH movie night.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Baca would destroy Gary Miller
Probably about a 20 point victory. A less skilled candidate could lose.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
MA Gov
Congressman Capuano might run for Governor

http://www.wbur.org/2013/02/07...

What is with these people?
Why do they somehow think the biggest blizzard in a decade is the right time to try and make political news? Dumb.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Hagel
was apparently funded by "Friends of Hamas". Not "friends" of Hamas, "Friends of Hamas"... that's the name of the group. http://www.nationalreview.com/...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
Connections to a terrorist group...
Lovely.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Hagel is done
I cant see how anyone who took payments from the "Friends of Hamas" can be the US Sec of Defense! If this is true no way he gets confirmed. If the Obama administration knew about this I cant see how they thought Hagel could get confirmed. If Hagel hid this from them than it is clearly grounds for withdrawing his nomination. And they didnt bother to check this out than whoever did their backround checks needs to be fired.
[ Parent ]
Depends ...
I doubt that enough Democrats would jump ship to threaten his confirmation and he'll pick up enough GOPers anyway.

As for Obama admin not knowing about it ... they (a) either really didn't know - bringing their general sloppyness with these sort of things back to mind, I wouldn't be surprised - or (b) couldn't care less about it.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
I suspect Hagel will withdraw his nomination early next week
From the get-go, he seemed miserable about everything and I don't think many Democrats are passionate enough about the guy to go to bat for him over new controversies. In fact, I bet Schumer feels pretty embarrassed he embraced him as much as he did. That Brennan did such a splendid job leaves Hagel's hopes all the shakier. To confirm him is to confirm a man who nobody but the president seems to have full confidence in. He really is the new Harriet Miers.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Voting twice is okay if you think your vote might not be counted
http://www.nationalreview.com/...

I like how she feels that if she has someone's power of attorney she can cast a vote for that person.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Canada Redistricting article
Interesting that the main thing that divided how to draw the districts in Canada is the same one seen here:

(Should districts be drawn all urban / all rural as much as possible or should mixed districts be drawn)

In the US, much of the time, the answer to that is based entirely on who is perceived to benefit from it.

(Missouri: Republicans chose 2 all urban districts since they make excellent vote sinks and help make the remaining 6 Republican; Democrats would have preferred mixed.
Utah: Republicans chose 4 mixed districts to try to go 4-0; Democrats might have preferred Salt Lake City in its own district)

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

Canadian ridings
I believe they have immense population deviations, even within the same Provence. IIRC, rural areas as grotesquely overrepresented per their population and huge cities like Toronto are very underrepresented.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Depends
The deviation is larger in some provinces compared to others.  It really depends on the municipal boundaries in the provinces though.  Alberta is not as bad as some of the provinces.  Ontario seems to be the worst.

Wikipedia has a nice chart with the size of each district, the party that holds it, area and number of electors.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P...

27, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Ontario and Alberta are all under represented in Parliament
And Saskatchewan is overrepresented. I am not advocating stepping the small Provinces of their sole representative, so the fact that Nunavut has a tiny rising doesn't bother me. What I find disturbing is the fact that Saskatchewan has 14 ridings that are all ~75,000 or less, while Ontario has the vast majority of its ridings with double the number of people than the average Saskatchewan riding. Or how about Ontario having a single riding that is larger than the combined 4 ridings in PEI.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.
[ Parent ]
by US standards yes
But that doesn't appear to have been what the recent dispute was about.

(But if Canadian rules were applied here, then Missouri would stay at nine seats [they can't lose seats there unless the population actually decreases] and I'm sure Republicans here would overpopulate the St Louis & KC voting seats for a more secure 7 - 2 majority than can be drawn under one man one vote.)

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
NH-02: Fmr. House Speaker O'Brien mulling run
http://www.nationaljournal.com...

Might be able to win in a midterm.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

isn't this the guy who pushed tons of
very conservative legislation as Speaker and lost his majority? I don't think he can get past 46% or so against a decently strong incumbent in a Tilt Dem seat.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Kelly Ayotte got a sister?
We need to look for someone with her sort of practical, less partisan, persona  
[ Parent ]
New Hampshire is too prone to wild swings to say that
Shea Porter lost by 12 points then won by 4. Who knows what will happen there.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Yes
He's not a great candidate for this district unless 2014 is yet another wave year in NH.  

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
I'd say he's an underdog even in another 2010
Charlie Bass, a much better candidate than O'Brien barely won this seat in 2010, despite being a former Congressman and it being an open seat.  Defeating an incumbent with someone much more conservative will be hard even in a wave year.

Christie 2016  
[ Parent ]
Isn't O'Brien the Tea Party darling
that became very controversial because he pushed some very conservative bills in the state House last cycle? I think he won't win against Shea-Porter in 2014.  
[ Parent ]
Does anyone have a very good question for Bob Gates?
I'm going to see him speak in a few hours. The crowd will be large, and there might not be a question and answer period. However, if I am able to ask a question, I'll ask one of your burning ones for you.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)
Plenty
However, I'll just give you two, and you can ask whichever you feel would garner the best response:

1) What is your opinion of Chuck Hagel?
2) Where do you see US foreign policy heading in the next 25 years?

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
I'd ask him about the bombing of the syrian nuclear reactor
Here's the article Elliot Abrams wrote about it this week:
http://www.commentarymagazine....

I'd ask Gates why he oppposed letting Israel bomb the Syrian nuclear reactor, why he thought is was so important to stop them from bombing the reactor that he wanted to risk the entire US/Israeli relationship over the issue and in hindsight is he now glad his advice was not listen to and that Israel destoyed the reactor.

To me this is one of the most interesting untold stories.  

[ Parent ]
Massachusetts: State Representative Announces for Markey Seat
http://atr.rollcall.com/massac...

Apparently we're just assuming Markey goes to the senate.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

From that same link: State. Sen. Will Brownsberg in
"Yes, Ed Markey is running for Senate: I'm supporting strongly for that seat," Brownsberger said in a voicemail left for CQ Roll Call. "If he's successful, I will run, in turn, for his seat."


(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem
[ Parent ]
Well yes
I think even most people here would agree Markey is strongly favored.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
What are Markey's chances?
Basically, I think unless he dies or is in some way incapacitated, he has about a 99% chance of winning.

Age 42. Location: GA-04 & GA-05.
[ Parent ]
Due to sleepwalking
90/10 maybe 95/5 at best.  

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Yeah, that's about what I give him
maybe 75/15/10 Markey/Lynch/Winslow.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Eh, I'll go with 75 percent
Just because I'm wholly convinced the man is incapable of running an inspiring or spirited or exciting or remotely interesting campaign.

With 20 percent to Lynch, 5 percent to Winslow.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
That's fair
If we include lynch in the numbers that's exactly what I would give.  

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Andrew Sullivan
Andrew Sullivan's coming to campus in an hour. Any questions for him?

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
What positions do you share with conservatives?
Since he claims to still be the "real conservative", it would be interesting to know whether he still even pretends to believe in anything conservative.
[ Parent ]
+100
I want to know how he is still conservative.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Annoying
It's annoying when someone says they disagree with the Republican party on pretty much everything and still claims to be a Republican. [cough] Colin Powell [cough]

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
there are still some reverse Zell Millers out there
I mean we have small amount of registered R's in CA that really aren't Republican anymore (but I guess they were to lazy to change voter registration)

The thing is the parties are always changing. Some of these folks just have beliefs from a different era. I mean you could probably take time machine back into the 1940's an find: an isolationist Republican who doesn't believe the US should recognize Israel or Democrat who doesn't believe in desegrating the military.

[ Parent ]
Republican economic policy has its roots in the 1800s
While there was a period where Republicans were isolationist, that's before current Republicans were born. The party has had a pro-life plank in the platform since 1980. If you're a Republican you should agree with a lot of the party's positions.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
If you grew up in an R family in an R neighborhood
You might sign on out of inertia; plus to vote in local primaries or in some places; get a govt job  
[ Parent ]
I have no doubt people can join a political party without agreeing with the party
And they can certainly not change their registration. I'm addressing someone who registered as a Republican because they agree with the party on many of the issues. My point is that if you did then, whenever that was, then you likely do now. IMO, the people who say the party abandoned them probably never agreed with the party on many issues to start with.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
I think it depends on how old you are
Take former congressman Pete McCloskey. He joined the GOP all the way back in 1948 when the party platform was quite different from what is today. But by 1970's McClosley began having feeling at odds with his party as he opposed the war in Vietnam. It would take another few more decades till he finally left the party.

I guess that's why I'm amazed when there voters over 85 or so who are die hard Republicans or Democrats. It means that they too have changed with party over the decades.


[ Parent ]
"Would you like a one-way ticket back to the UK?"

[ Parent ]
Are you still obsessed with Palin's kids
That guy's a sick bastard.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, that'd be pretty funny
"In your opinion, who gave birth to Trig Palin?"

He'd have to choose between being honest and doing serious damage to prospects for his solo site, or avoiding the question. Given his arrogance, I wouldn't be surprised if it was the former.

[ Parent ]
He went into that
He didn't say whom he thinks gave birth to Trig Palin, but he cast doubt upon the circumstances of his birth, talking about how improbable it was, in his opinion, that her water broke in Texas and then she gave a speech while having contractions and then flew to Alaska and drove to Wasilla to give birth in a hospital there with a doctor from another hospital, and then for her to return to work two days later.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Sullivsn
If Margaret Thatcher were 45 today and leader of the  Conservative Party, would you still support her?
[ Parent ]
Sullivan on Thatcher
He's incredibly proud to have supported her back in the late 70s and early 80s, but cast doubt upon the practicality of her policies today. As he put is, government overreach was a bigger problem in the 70s and 80s than it is today, so he doesn't think right now is the time for Thacher-ite policies.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Andrew Sullivan on Richard Tisei
Y'all had to know I'd ask about Richard Tisei.

When I brought up Richard Tisei, Andrew Sullivan said he was upset when he learned Richard Tisei lost. He was particularly disappointed when I told him that Tisei lost by a single point and that a Libertarian played the spoiler role in that race.

I then asked him why he never made any public comments or boosted Tisei on his blog--something that you guys must realize is quite easy judging by the amount of shameless Tisei boosting I do around here :p--and he said he tends not to get candidate specific for elections as "small as US House races," but he thought it was a good idea to talk about Tisei on his blog if he runs again. He appreciated that I told him I think Tisei will run again and he said he'd discuss Tisei's candidacy on his blog, if Senator Tisei runs again. He also agreed that he liked the idea of having a gay conservative in the House, if only to add a well needed and fresh new perspective to Republican Conference meetings.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.

[ Parent ]
any word if Tisei will give it another go?
this race was a shocker most my political friends Democrats and Republicans alike thought Tisei would wim.
[ Parent ]
If he's looking for a gay conservative
He needs to keep looking! Tisei would be the House's most liberal Republican since Chris Shays.

Then again, Sullivan calls himself a conservative, which would make Tisei a right-wing reactionary.

[ Parent ]
Heh. John Tierney would disagree.
Richard the EXTREME Tea Pawtiuh!1!

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
[ Parent ]
Menendez Update
http://thehill.com/homenews/se...

If you complain loudly, you'll end any questions, right?

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

GA-Sen; Update from Rothenberg Political Report
Broun, Kingston, and Gingrey are pretty much going to be the only members of the congressional delegation that will run.

Price looks to be out, as he is worried that his lack of name identification won't let him succeed. And he may be looking to Isaakson's seat in 2016, as he figures there will be less competition for the seat (good luck). Thus, he is coordinating with Handel, as it seems like she is running.

And Cagle looks to be out as well. Self funders that may look to enter: Ben Tarbutton III, the chairman of the Georgia Board of Regents and Kelly Loeffler (who said she wasn't looking into it, but didn't completely close the door).

Overall, in a four person race (Handel, Gingrey, Kingston, and Broun), they think Handel being the only woman and having run statewide twice before would have the leg up, but that the race would certianly go into a runoff.  

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3

Really thinking
Handel vs. Kingston runoff. Maybe Broun sneaks into one spot but probably loses the second round.

Right now I doubt Gingrey becomes much of a factor. He's old and generic and his base overlaps too much with Handel's and Broun's.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
Keep in mind that Gingrey has nearly two million
Kingston has about one million and Broun with about 150k. The club for growth will probably stay out, unless Kingston gets hot -- who they will likely oppose.

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
[ Parent ]
Should Republicans concede 2014 governor's race?
http://blogs.venturacountystar...

Interesting about the Democrats considering putting propositions on the ballot that'll get out the vote. If they put a bunch of tax increases on "evil" people, they should succeed. I imagine they'll hike corporate income and property taxes and put a big tax on oil exploration.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

CMED
The California Modernization and Economic Development Act, which is basically a 9.5% severance tax on oil, is likely going to be on the ballot.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
severance tax
Isn't Californias tax on severance significantly lower, at present, than most other states?
[ Parent ]
it's nonexistent
At least on oil.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
don't the enviro lobbyist types prevent oil drilling anyway?
nt

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Ca
CA still has substantial oil drilling, tho not enough to have any effect on the price.

Kern county, Los angeles county come to mind.

when I drove to a job at a site in Kern county 40 years ago, I drove thru miles of country side which were black from the oil remnants remaining on the land surface [western Kern county]

Remember that downtown LA has the Brea tar pits, with the remnants of animals caught by the tar.  The museum impressed me, even tho it is over 40 years since I was there.  I would recommend a visit.

Every once in a while I see in fleeting some article about oil wells in the middle of the city, and the attempts to camouflage them.

google search:

"much of California's current "conventional" oil production -- the third largest in the nation"

http://money.cnn.com/2013/01/1...

and further

In fact, the Monterey is thought to hold over 400 billion barrels of oil, according to IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates. That's nearly half the conventional oil in all of Saudi Arabia. The United States consumes about 19 million barrels of oil a day.

"Four hundred billion barrels, that doesn't escape anyone in this businesses," said Stephen Trammel, energy research director at IHS

Well, current production is not enough to affect world markets

[ Parent ]
I'm sure run someone
If not Tim Donnelly, perhaps any of the other R's that were gunning for senate last cycle.

I'm sure they will make another go at the tobacco tax. The best argument they had was that money wasn't going 100% to CA, and it worked well. As I and almost Democratic leaning friends voted against it, one of the few times I agree with american tax payers association. Oddly enough I split with Republican mother (who utterly detests the smokers!) she was complaining that tax needs to be higher. She apparently loves sin taxes (well those are only ones she seems to like).
I'm sure they will draft up another version that actually gives the money state.

As for Property taxes I think CA will revert back before the era of Prop 13 and the bribery scandals, where you Business property will be taxed at higher levels than homes.  

[ Parent ]
They shouldn't
if for no other reason other than to prevent Tim Donnelly from being their candidate.  
Donnelly's nomination would result is a disaster up and down the ballot, and I wouldn't be surprised if some Dems vote for Donnelly in the primary to produce such a result.


Christie 2016  
[ Parent ]
Mass 2012 vote update
I've searched the website on every town and city in Massachusetts. Some have final vote totals, while others do not. So while I'm still 9.6k short of the actual total, I'm 13.2k ahead of what DKE has.

https://docs.google.com/spread...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

mass by cd
I had most of yours, but heres a couple more, and one comment on longmeadow

CD01 and CD02

longmeadow
http://www.longmeadow.org/wp-c...
see auxiliary for additional votes over what you have. I assumed they were votes for the associated candidate. Am I wrong?

wilbraham
3 more votes
http://wilbrahamma.virtualtown...

northborough
http://www.town.northborough.m...

[ Parent ]
ma cd shortcuts
cd03
lawrence  official

http://www.cityoflawrence.com/...
sssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss

dover

http://www.doverma.org/town-go...

the most unproffessional set of results ever

but I think other should be 41 votes 12 plus 29 is what I read, tho I admit it is a bit unclear

needham
http://www.needhamma.gov/Docum...

I added the HC, which I interpret as hand count
ddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd

southborough
http://www.southboroughtown.co...
ffffffffffffffffffffffssssssssssssssssssssssss

cd06
marblehead
http://www.marblehead.org/Docu...
ddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd
cd07

randolph

http://www.townofrandolph.com/...
http://www.townofrandolph.com/...

l
http://www.townofrandolph.com/...
and down load doc
above link now down
http://www.townofrandolph.com/...
the latest
http://www.townofrandolph.com/...
"To view the November 6, 2012 Presidential/State Election results, please Click here."
obama11441,romney 3552

theres another unofficial results that has your numbers, both accessed from different pages. Neither is labelled official, while the one with the lower total is labeleld unofficial

dddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd
milton
detailed precinct list,
minor quibble

cd08
my figures were obama 6595, other 139
http://www.townofmilton.org/Pu...
ddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd


[ Parent ]
auxiliary?
Honestly I just looked at the spreadsheet and saw 4,804 and 4,516 and counted that. I've never heard of "auxiliary." I have no idea if those count in Romney or Obama's total. Unfortunately, I can't find final totals for Lowell, Waltham, Framingham, Chicopee, Salem, Brockton, Northampton, Holyoke, among others.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
auxiliary
I dont know what auxiliary means either, but all of the candidates have an auxiliary number immediately below the candidates total.

[ Parent ]
auxiliary
http://www.19actionnews.com/st...

"Johnson's vote will count because all problem ballots are put in an auxiliary ballot box. They're tabulated before the end of the day.  Even so, the Board of Elections says make sure all three ballot pages each have a stub. You can even watch poll workers tear them off before they're inserted into a scanner."

[ Parent ]
Massachussetts poll worker training sheet

http://lhsassociates.com/resou...

"With the plastic rimmed key, open the auxiliary compartment door (lower lock on the left side of the ballot box). Reach inside and any remove any ballots that might be in there. Once assured that the compartment is empty, lock the door and lock the auxiliary access door above it. Ballots removed from that compartment must be completely hand counted on the Hand Counted or Auxiliary Tally Sheet."

page 4

MASSACHUSETTS OPENING PROCEDURES
FOR THE ACCU-VOTE SCANNER

[ Parent ]
I understood little of that
I'm assuming it was written by John Adams in the early 1790's.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
auxiliary
Massachussetts is instructing the poll workers to oopen the AUXILIARY door

i.e.  auxiliary ballots are ballots to be hand counted

[ Parent ]
PA-Gov; Schwartz running?
@HotlineJosh: RT @Capitolwire: Key Democratic says U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz '80 percent' likely to run for guv #PaPolitics http://t.co/UFJTeH8D

28/Male/Married/Republican/CA-3
I've been expecting her to run
since she named that state party bigwig as her campaign coordinator. The current paucity of even moderately strong names circling such a top D pickup opportunity basically suggests the field is being cleared for her.

I think McCord probably goes for PA-13 if she runs.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
McCord residency
Most reports cite him as a resident of the Bryn Mawr area, which is mostly in Lower Merion Township. After 2012 redistricting, Lower Merion is now in PA-02.

Unless McCord is going to move, I think it's more likely one of the County Commissioners runs for PA-13, unless a deal is struck between Schwartz & McCord.

32, Libertarian leaning D, PA-7.

[ Parent ]
McCord is super-wealthy
he can probably buy several houses in PA-13 in addition to his current one. Unless he really wants to take on Toomey this is his easy chance to not be out of a (political) job in 2016.

If not him it's probably a Josh Shapiro vs. Mike Stack primary fight.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

[ Parent ]
You are correct
He could buy a house in each municipality in PA-13. lol.

On a more serious note, you raise a valid point about Stack. I attended a holiday event in December in the Abington/Jenkintown area, and Stack was there...in Montco!...handing out business cards and shaking hands.

This was around the same time the PA Society speculation for Governor was circling.  

32, Libertarian leaning D, PA-7.

[ Parent ]
Makes sense
Why no one else wanted to run so far.  

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Political Roundup for February 8, 2013 | 110 comments
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