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Political Roundup for February 14, 2013

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 at 07:00:00 AM EST


Happy Valentines Day everyone.  Hopefully you will spend some time with your significant other, but still have time to provide some excellent discussion on our site.

Congress
KY-Sen: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is leading Ashley Judd by 9 points according to the latest Harper Polling / RunSwitch PR survey.  Harper finds McConnell winning 49 percent of likely voters and 40 percent going for Judd.  RunSwitch PR is ran by a former McConnell staffer.  FYI Harper Polling seriously should learn that a likely voter survey this far out from the election is pretty ridiculous.

IA-1: State Representative Pat Murphy (no not Patrick Murphy) is the first Democrat to throw his hat into the ring to replace Representative Bruce Braley whose running to replace Senator Tom Harkin whose retiring at the end of this term.  Murphy is one of several expected candidates in this Democratic leaning seat.

TN-9: When you thought Congressmen had stopped using Twitter in weird ways, you were clearly mistaken.  Representative Steve Cohen decided it was appropriate to send love sounding messages to the 24 year old daughter of long time supporters then he proceeded to delete the messages.  Allegedly Cohen meant the messages to be private, but sent them as public messages.  Thank God it was not pictures of his private parts like disgraced former Congressman and favorite RRH punching bag, Anthony Weiner.

NJ-Sen: I am sure Frank Lautenberg is smiling somewhere over the irony of Representative Rob Andrews supporting Newark Mayor Corey Booker's exploratory campaign for US Senate.  If you remember correctly, Andrews, now under scrutiny for some financial irregularities, lost by a whopping 24 points in 2008 to Lautenberg in the Democratic primary.  

MS-Sen: Speaking of the Senate retirement watch, Senator Thad Cochran is putting off making a decision regarding retirement until the end of this year or the beginning of next year.  Cochran is completing his 6th term in the US Senate and has a logjam of Mississippi Republicans seeking to replace him if he decides to retire.

TX-Sen: Never short on words, Senator Ted Cruz was short on words Wednesday as he has lost his voice entirely due to a nasty cold.  Cruz was apparently showing people a note saying he had lost his voice due to a nasty cold.  Get well Senator.

States
PA-Legislature: Equality PA has released a list of its 2013-14 LGBT Equality Caucus and this legislature will feature three Republicans as members of the Congress.   Mike Fleck, the first openly gay member of the State House, is joined by Tom Murt and Chris Ross in joining the caucus.  The caucus has a total of 35 members in the House and 13 in the Senate.

Philly Traffic Court: The infamous Philadelphia Traffic Court, which is stacked with elected political hacks, is closer to being abolished.  Two bills passed the State Senate unanimously that will weaken and eventually abolish the bizarre municipal oddity that has seen several of its members charged by the Feds for ticket fixing.

TX-Gov: Governor Rick Perry's trip to California to bring business to Texas has come up short.  I am not sure if this trip was serious or just an attempt by Perry to get out of Texas.

Pope
Resignation: What happens when a Pope voluntarily resigns?  No Pope has voluntarily resigned since 1294.
Ryan_in_SEPA :: Political Roundup for February 14, 2013
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Political Roundup for February 14, 2013 | 83 comments
MA-Sen: Sullivan in?
http://dailycaller.com/2013/02...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
What's with all these Republicans waiting until the last possible second?
Getting 10,000 signatures requires time and organization.  Even with paid canvassers you can't get that in a single weekend, especially not in winter.

30, Left leaning indie, MA-7
[ Parent ]
Maybe they are already getting signatures
You can have people out gathering signatures without making any fanfare. If you don't come across someone who posts on Redmass group, it wouldn't make the Internet.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Rumor was somebody was already doing that
[ Parent ]
I suspect only Winslow and Gomez will net 10K sigs
I've actually reached out to both campaigns to see if they need any help, but no response...

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Confirmed: Sullivan in
http://www.redmassgroup.com/di...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Cohen looks like a non story
The only part of the messages weird for public postings was his ending. (Internet slang that doubles as "I love you" & "I like you".) With tone of voice striped out from being such a short written message, we can't even tell if he meant if it's friendship love or romantic love (or just a flirty ending to a message not meaning anything).
Also in any case Cohen isn't married.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.
NJ poll
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets...

Menendez unhurt. Lautenberg will lose to Booker.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

Menendez
The key number is those who know what is going think he is did something wrong.

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
59% of voters in NJ either disapprove or have no opinion of Sen Menendez
with 32% havent heard of the scandal and of the 68% who have heard of it 65% dont know enough to form an opinion. In another words Menendez support is a mile wide and an inch deep.
[ Parent ]
40-25 Booker over Lautenberg
Still not very meaningful considering how far off we are.  I still think Frank could hold on if the power players continue to shun Booker, as they have been doing.
[ Parent ]
Incumbent at 25%, dude!
Who wins?

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Interesting Nassau County Exec Race
Kaiman is said to be considering entering the race at the suggestion of Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, although neither he nor Cuomo's office would confirm or deny that, according to my colleague Dan Janison.

But why should Cuomo, a Democrat, care? The governor already has a close relationship with Mangano; and his partnering with another Nassau Republican, Dean Skelos, the State Senate's co-leader, on some issues helps burnish the I-can-work-with-Republicans-and-Democrats bona fides Cuomo likely would need in a campaign for higher office.

Why would he be so interested in Nassau? The answer, insiders insist, is Hillary Rodham Clinton, who remains, for now, the presumptive Democratic candidate in 2016 (if she runs) for an office Cuomo is said to covet: president of the United States.

Suozzi and Jacobs are considered to be Clinton people; Kaiman -- whom Cuomo considered appointing head of the Long Island Power Authority, before Sandy -- is considered to be a Cuomo person.

http://www.newsday.com/columni...


NY-3

I can't imagine
Suozzi not winning a primary here, but it would certainly be interesting.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Whether Kaiman gets in or not
the problem is going to be Haber, he has $2 Million self funded and he's already attacking.

NY-3
[ Parent ]
Rob, not Bob, Andrews


From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
Any chance the DSCC can recruit Gene Taylor?
Musgrove and Childers couldn't make this race competitive. Musgrove remains unpopular among whites; many of them haven't forgotten his confederate flag flap. Childers was a fluke, as evidenced by Nunnelee's 14-pt win in 2010.

Taylor would be more of an underdog than Barrow would be in Georgia. However, even if he lost, Taylor's presence on the national stage could do wonders for Democrats. They can't win the House unless they revive the Blue Dog's brand. Nobody can do that better than DINO Gene Taylor who deftly balances social conservatism with economic populism (the guy's vehemently anti-free trade).

Jim Hood
Jim Hood would have a better chance at winning than Gene Taylor would.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
Agreed
I'd be happy with any of them.

Musgrove at this point is a no go.  I think It's Hood, Taylor and then Childers as a 3rd option or bust, and only if Cochran retires.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
Any chance Cochran gets a Tea Party challenger?
If he runs again this seems like a do no harm type of challege. The seat is safe GOP no matter what (like UT & TX where) so no chance of giving a seat to the Dems. To me this seems like the perfect spot for the Tea Party types to try and recruit a high caliber challeger.
[ Parent ]
You'd think so, but probably not.
It's hard to understate how both very conservative and very establishment Mississippi Republicans are.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Dems winning back the House: a ridiculous article.
No, the Dems aren't winning the House in 2014. Her thinking the Dems will win the House wouldn't be a reason for Allyson Schwartz to not run statewide because she knows that's hot happening. Also, Dems picking up seats sure as hell isn't starting here in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

http://www.pennlive.com/midsta...

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!

maybe they're just bored
In 2006/2008 we had some long term members retire/walk away when they might have been able to hold their seats.

I suppose that being a liberal in today's house has to be a thankless job. Probably provides incentive to pack up and leave.

26, R, PA-01.



[ Parent ]
Actually
I'd say being a liberal in todays house isn't that terrible.  They have been needed to pass 2 bills already.  If Boehner continues to need to break the Hastert rule they will be somewhat needed this congress, albeit never for Legislation they are passionate about, so your point is probably still valid.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
I'm a tad lost here too
I mean isn't Schwartz's district rather D friendly these days, I doubt it would be an easy win for the GOP.

Well if the Dems ever do want to win the house they will need more seats in PA. Barring scandals and retirements I only Fitzpatrick as the possible target.

[ Parent ]
PA-07: Meehan explaining why it was drawn as such
He's just such a smooth operator. Listen to Pat Meehan addressing the LanCo Republicans about why his district picked up eastern LanCo. Hint: he nicely blames "long serving incumbents who wanted to preserve their districts" (cough cough Joe Pitts cough cough).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!

It's not all Pitts' fault
After all, his district didn't have to go into Berks. You could have left Berks whole and given it to Gerlach, but that would have left him vulnerable. Pitts could have been LanCo+Chester if you wanted to, but doesn't do the GOP any good.  

R, MA-3
[ Parent ]
Merrimackman
So? Let Meehan explain it this way. He does a good job explaining it and I'm glad to let him.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
Agree
Actually sending Meehan into Berks makes more sense than going into Lancaster.  Berks is a crossroads county in the sense it fits into multiple regions, Philly, Lehigh Valley, Lancaster, Harrisburg, and even Coal Country.  This makes splitting it up several ways far more acceptable.  

27, Republican, PA-6
[ Parent ]
Oh dear god NO...
Amash possibly for Senate if Levin retires

http://www.nationalreview.com/...

20, Conservative Republican MA-04 College MA-01
Twitter - https://twitter.com/JohnRTapley

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE
No R will win it. This way we get rid of Amash.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
First, I was like NOOOO
then, I was like YEAAAAH!

Sorry @AmashSupporters for snarkyness.  

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
I think Land, Rogers, or Miller would have a decent chance in a good year.
NT

20, Conservative Republican MA-04 College MA-01
Twitter - https://twitter.com/JohnRTapley
[ Parent ]
As long as it's not a really good year (like 2010)
I'm all for it.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
I have no problem if he wins...
The only negative would be if the seat were somehow competitive and he loses. It's unlikely to be competitive, so I'll take that shot.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Ben Carson
Is he a Michigan voter still?  That man is smart and his life story is awe inspiring.  
[ Parent ]
Nope
Lives in Upperco, MD

R, MA-3
[ Parent ]
Isn't Upperco in MD-06?
That used to be Bartlett's district and is one of the few in MD that could conceivably elect a Republican. Could the Dr run for Congress here?
[ Parent ]
Upperco
It's partially in MD-01 but mostly in MD-06. The man's a gifted pediatric surgeon. Leave him be as one until he's too old to operate or until he grows tired of it, which he probably won't.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
No, it's all in MD-1 now
nt

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Maybe Dr. Andy Harris would like to go back to Johns Hopkins
so he could allow another Hopkins doctor to take his place in congress!
[ Parent ]
Not so, Shamlet
Yellow=MD-01, Green=MD-07. Part of Upperco is in Carroll County and part is in Baltimore County.
photo ScreenShot2013-02-14at11335PM_zpsb438e3e7.png

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
Gaaaah
I forgot how MD-7 twists up there now. Regardless, it's not in MD-6 anymore, which is what threw me off.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Sadly he lives in the MD-7 part
NT

R, MA-3
[ Parent ]
Yeah
Upperco nearly exclusively refers to stuff on the BaltCo side. Across the line is more often referred to as Hempstead.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Luckily you dont have to live in a congressional district to run for congress!

[ Parent ]
Justin Amash for US Senate
That's wonderful! I'd donate some time and effort in the Metro Detroit area considering my mom's family is all still there.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
I still can't imagine
Levin retiring even with his low fundraising, he just seems like someone who will die in office.

If Schauer is likely to run for Governor would that make Peters likely for this?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

[ Parent ]
I'll believe Levin retires when I see it
He and his brother Sander are like Dingell, Conyers, and Dale Kildee (who finally retired).  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  
[ Parent ]
That's what people were saying about Lautenberg
He retired once, he hated it, etc, etc.  And he retired.

Age 20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)

Check out my blog at politicohen.com

Berkeley Class of 2015.
[ Parent ]
Best to think of Lautenberg
as being pushed out. I think he would have definitely run again if he thought he would sleepwalk to another term like Levin can.

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Lautenberg will be 90 in 2014
I'd guess that's an age where you have to question a 6 year commitment. Levin won't turn 90 until 2024. I think Levin has reason to think he'll be able to serve out his term.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2
[ Parent ]
Hagel likely to be filibustered
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Looks like Democrats don't have those last 2 votes past Johanns, Cochran and Collins to break a Filibuster.

If this is true, how quickly does Hagel withdraw after Friday and Flournoy is announced?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016

More
http://www.politico.com/story/...

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
Or Ashton Carter
He would get through on a voice vote and would make a great SecDef, his experience as the primary procurement officer is very much needed in OSD...which of course makes you wonder why he (or Flournoy) weren't picked in the first place.
[ Parent ]
Carter
Would be a good choice, but for diversity and since she is probably just as qualified I think they go Flournoy.  I'd be fine with either.  

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
[ Parent ]
I just don't see it ...
I think it'll be a tight vote and we won't until all votes have been cast, but Hagel will get confirmed.

Not entirely convinced that McCain, or Graham, or the other 40odd GOP Senators there are will hold out.

And since he doesn't seem to have lost even a single Democrat, all they need are two other votes.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
Twitter says Graham supports Cloture on Hagel
Link: https://twitter.com/samsteinhp... (h/t SaoMagnifico at DKE)

A little good cop/bad cop about her pork projects and Reid should be able to bring Murkowski on board.

Democrats can't fail to confirm a cabinet appointment going into sequester negotiations. If it came to that, the nomination would be quietly withdrawn. Reid wouldn't scheduled a vote if Hagel wasn't going to be the next SoD.

(-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem

[ Parent ]
Hagel filibustered
Barely - meaning he'll get confirmed next week. Charming.

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker
[ Parent ]
Steve Hodges running for MO-8
He probably won't win, but he's the D's strongest candidate.  

22, Democrat, CO-4 (home), MI-12 (law school) 
Elaborate?
What happened to Linda Black? What makes Hodges so much better?

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Black dropped out
Hodges is a conservadem who has held down a conservative state house district without too much trouble. Obama won Black's old district in 2008 and Black ran more or less even with him. Hodges' old district was about 60 percent McCain and Hodges won pretty handily in 2010.  

22, Democrat, CO-4 (home), MI-12 (law school) 
[ Parent ]
well
that explains why the Democrats waited a week.

But all this has really done is changed which Democrat loses.
We have something like 169 state house seats in Missouri; each state house seat is less than 5% of a US house seat.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
2007 Report: Hagel Said State Department Controlled by Israel
I'm not going to go into all anecdotes
And I'm even leaving Israel out of the picture. From anecdotes from NE Jews, it's obvious that Hagel is a raging anti-semite. The Israel stuff is only a result.

24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

[ Parent ]
Mike Ross
Have we heard anything since that one journalist claimed he was 90% in?  Grady have you heard anything?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

Hillary/Booker 2016
TN-09
If she's from Memphis, I'm probably connected to her in some way. Half of East Memphis knows or is related to the other half, recent transplants excepted. ANyway, Cohen is just being his us usual warm self (I'm being serious). There's nothing to see here.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
Apparently it's his daughter
http://www.politico.com/story/...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
[ Parent ]
Time for a dig at Midtown
A Midtown liberal has a child out of wedlock? Shocker.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
Cohen's no idiot
Condoms fail and this is, I'm guessing, proof of that.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
I know, and I'm glad that he's been reunited with his daughter, but
this just reminds of crazy liberal second cousin and his girlfriend in Boulder too much to not be snarky.

20, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home and internship), VA-01 (college)
[ Parent ]
looking at the article itself
I'm guessing that Cohen didn't use a condom. You first reaction isn't to do math if you you used one.

But that's not the part of the story that's bad politically. It's the part where the story says that Cohen found out about it three years ago. People are going to assume he was hiding it.

41 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
I disagree with the last part
People (even politicians) have a right to a private life. If he didnt want to put his new found daughter into the spot light and turn there re-uniting into a media circus than he should have a right to do that. Cant see anything bad politically here for Cohen.  
[ Parent ]
TX Results by HD and SD
In addition to the Congressional district results that DKE linked yesterday, and krazen linked last night which, I will re-link here for those that didn't see it, the Texas Legislative Council has also released the results by House district, and by Senate district.

It is worth noting that while Romney did win Wendy Davis' seat, it has a PVI of D+4 relative to the state (54-46 versus 58-42).

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

Holy cow
Wendy Davis is probably DOA in a midterm electorate, if we run a good candidate.

From suburban Chicago's North Shore, now living on suburban Philadelphia's Main Line. Back home until July.
Bruce Rauner for Governor!
[ Parent ]
TX SD10: Mark Shelton should not run again
He greatly underperformed Romney, getting just getting 48.9% of the two-party votes to Romney's 54%. How about state Reps. Diane Patrick or Craig Goldman?  
[ Parent ]
Bielat Running, Sullivan "98% in"
Headdesk. Here's hoping most of them don't get the signatures.

http://www.boston.com/news/loc...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1

Lautenberg retiring


24, Male, R, NY-10

Christie-Toomey 2016!

President Rahm?
http://www.thedailybeast.com/a...

I imagine he'll flirt with the press over this for two years and ultimately pass.

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

NYC-Mayor: Quinn crushing
http://www.ny1.com/content/pol...

Quinn 37, Thompson 13, De Blasio 12, Liu 9

Lhota 20, McDonald 8, Catsimatidis 5

Quinn 64, Lhota 18

23, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Christie-Martinez in 2016. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

Probably the least problematic Dem in race
One hopes she follows the Koch route of social liberalism/tough law enforcement/fiscal sanity  
[ Parent ]
Tarr out
http://bostonglobe.com/metro/2...

R, MA-7/MD-7/moving to WV-1
MA-Sen: What's with all these Republicans
announcing runs lately? There are too many of them now. Can't they just unite around a single candidate? Maybe they all think they have the strength and charisma of Scott Brown.  
Political Roundup for February 14, 2013 | 83 comments
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Elections have consequences -- from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. The political economist Max Weber wrote that the state possesses a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. But in the United States, the state is divided into myriad federal, state, and local entities. And the elections to fill those entities are the products of the fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes those elections -- from a Republican-leaning perspective -- to keep a close eye on the process of electing officials, and to offer our perspective on the election-related issues of the day. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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