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Political Roundup for February 22, 2013

by: James_Nola

Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 08:00:00 AM EST


President

Huntsman: He endorsed SSM, from a conservative standpoint. Not sure if this means he is more or less likely to run in 2016.

Thune: Sen. John Thune told a class of second graders that he enjoys his job and does not plan to run for President, calling it "a very, very hard job." Probably a smart move by Thune. McConnell and Cornyn are old enough that Thune could very well be Senate Majority/Minority Leader within the next decade.

Senate

New Jersey-B: Sen. Bob Menendez's approval ratings are way down after a month of allegations against him. According to Quinnipiac, he is down 15 points since Jan 23, to a 36-41 approval.

Nevada: Majority Leader Harry Reid, in response to a reporter's question about running again in 2016, replied "Sure, why not?" He has insisted for months he will run again, but, at 76 by the time he'd take the oath and facing a potentially tough challenge from Gov. Brian Sandoval, it's difficult to see him actually going through with it.

Georgia: Ugh. 70 year old, Todd Akin defending Rep. Phil Gingrey has supposedly emailed Republicans in Georgia to say he is running for Senate and associates say he is "100% in", just waiting to hire a campaign manager. He has also supposedly announced his run in a conference call, and is possibly planning a public announcement next week.

South Carolina: Sen. Lindsey Graham is looking better and better for the Republican primary in 2014, according to a new Winthrop University Poll. Graham has a 72% approval rating among Republicans.

South Dakota: More speculation that Sen. Tim Johnson will retire and Democrats will look to his son, US Attorney Brendan Johnson, to replace him. He has been appearing on TV more to raise his profile.

Wyoming: Sen. Mike Enzi says he won't announce his 2014 plans until March of 2014. With Wyoming's filing deadline in May, that won't give a relatively unknown (on a personal level) candidate...say Liz Cheney...time to ramp up a campaign against a popular and well-known Congresswoman Cynthia Lummis. Look for Cheney to go for Lummis' House seat if this scenario plays out.

Kentucky: Democrats appear to be coalescing around Ashley Judd (lol) as their candidate, with Gov. Steve Beshear, their first choice, calling her "a very serious candidate". Judd has been meeting with Kentucky Democrats, the DSCC, and Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand and Claire McCaskill to discuss her candidacy.

Louisiana: Roll Call has a piece out detailing the potential "primary" for LA Republicans. According to them, Cassidy's "hesitation" on a bid has led to Chas Roemer, Fleming, and Landry to think about a bid more. All of these people have been considering bids for over a year. It is not even March. Cassidy has not "hesitated". He hasn't had a good opportunity to announce. After the election, he was busy actually doing his job and then it was the holidays. After the holidays nationally, it was Mardi Gras time here and Cassidy was in charge of DC Mardi Gras. If he had announced his candidacy during Mardi Gras season, it would have been political malpractice. So, don't worry guys, there is no hesitation on his part. Just putting things into place.

NRSC, DSCC: Rob Portman and Jerry Moran really need to step it up. The DSCC raised $4.2 million in January to a pitiful $1.5 million for the NRSC.

House

SC-01: Reps. Jeff Duncan and Mick Mulvaney have endorsed state Sen. Larry Grooms in the race to succeed Tim Scott. Rep. Trey Gowdy is rumored to follow soon. Looks like the Congressional delegation is coalescing around the strongest candidate to spare them from the embarrassment of a Rep. Mark Sanford.

MN-06: After yet another closer than expected victory last November, Rep. Michele Bachmann is taking an odd step for her: she's keeping her mouth shut. Since the election, Bachmann has been quiet and working her district, even complimenting President Obama in an op-ed. Is she trying to hold on to her district, or even aiming higher?

UT-04: Mia Love is addressing CPAC next month. Could she use the gig to announce another Congressional run?

State & Local

SC-Gov: Gov. Nikki Haley's approval looks to be on the rebound according to the same poll that also showed Graham gaining. Haley's approval is up to 44%, up 5 from December. Among Republicans, she's up to a 67/16 approval rating.  

James_Nola :: Political Roundup for February 22, 2013
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PA-Gov: McCord not happy with Schwartz?
http://www.philly.com/philly/n...

Somewhere some western PA Dem is enjoying this way too much.

28, Republican, PA-6


GOP fundraising
I predicted this well before the election.
I have written numerous times that rich people will realize after the election that they aren't getting bang for their buck and will stop donating. 2012 was good evidence.
Besides, barring a wave, Ds will keep the senate, so it's even more predictable. GOP disarray after defeat isn't helping.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

I doubt it will be a lopsided fundraising advantage
There are activists on both sides of the political isle that will donate to their ideological candidates of choice. Yes, Republicans tend to rely more on maxed out donors than Democrats, but that doesn't mean that due to one defeat that fundraising will all of a sudden dry up. Democrats did really well fundraising in 05-06 coming off of the stinging loss in 04, and I suspect Republicans can do the same now. Heck, Republicans still raised a bunch of money after it was clear that they would not do so hot on election day 2012. Todd Akin was even able to raise money long after it was clear his senate bid was dead in the water. So I don't buy the notion that the Republican financial well is now dry.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
CW on online polling
http://www.theatlantic.com/mag...

CW for everyone but the NYT and WP.

26, Male, R, NY-10


I just spent waaaaay too long trying to figure out who CW was...


(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
Conventional Wisdom


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
I know. :-)
I was just groggy.

(-10.00, -3.49), libertarian socialist, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."



-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
LA-Sen; The speculation about Cassidy is probably based on losing a key consultant
Timmy Teepell, a former Jindal consultant. And now with other folks showing interest, Cassidy may be reconsidering.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

AR-4; Democratic state senator ready to jump in if Cotton runs for the senate
http://atr.rollcall.com/catego...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Paging Grady


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Good candidate
Unlikely to win since its AR-04 though.

[ Parent ]
MT-Sen; Daines signaling senate run?
@greggiroux: 1st-term Rep @SteveDaines (R-MT) forms Big Sky Opportunity PAC http://t.co/MUaWPbMgLZ #mtpol #mtsen

For those that don't remember Daines was running for the senate last cycle before he switched with Rehberg.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Interesting potential development
Although jumping offices after just 2 years had not been all that successful recently.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
I worry about it as well
but it does say good things about Daines that he was able to lock down his race while 5/6 other statewide candidates fell.

I wouldn't be averse to a switcheroo between him and Stapleton. The key things for beating Baucus are fundraising and lack of skeletons. You don't need to outraise him, but you will need a lot. And you can't have any skeletons to uncover because Baucus is one of the most ruthless campaigners out there. If Daines can meet those two criteria he should go for it.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
He was +5 in the poll though


26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
He does indeed start out in good shape
But look at polls 20+ months out the previous few cycles and see how well they reflected the actual outcomes. Daines looks to be in decent shape, but so did Lugar, Berg, Thompson, Akin, and Rehberg.

Either way, his entry is a big event in the course of this race, for sure.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


[ Parent ]
Ed Markey Compares Citizens United To Dred Scott
http://www.youtube.com/watch?f...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Black Pastors React
http://www.boston.com/politica...

I always find it interesting how the left is outraged if a Republican says something like this, but if a Democrat does so, it only gets a shrug.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
People in general...
...get outraged far too easily. Life need not be so intense..

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
People in general...
...pretend to get outraged far too easily. Life need not be so intense...

FTFY

26, Male, R, NY-10


[ Parent ]
touché!
n/t

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Liberals in general...
...get outraged far too easily. Just watch MSNBC any night. They'll find some obscure state legislator who says something crazy and then Chris Mathews will tell you that all Republicans are racist.

Of course this drives us nuts. So we get outraged that you don't get outraged when a liberal says the same thing.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Well
For what it's worth, Chris Matthews and Ed Schultz (especially Ed Schultz) are far too amped up for me. Rachel Maddow is more my speed.

I get your point.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Maddow
I don't watch MSNBC but I have seen some highlights of Maddow. She's really far to the left but when she's on with some of these crazies she doesn't seem to pile on. Maybe it's the little I've seen, but I can respect a progressive who isn't nuts about it.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
I can sit through Maddow without too much trouble.
I can endure Matthews every once in a while. Schultz, on the other hand, makes me want to throw something at the television, then go outside and clash with union protesters.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
I can actually stand Schultz
I just find his act comical. Maddow really grates on me for some reason, acting like she knows everything. I agree with you on Matthews, but he can be really moody.  

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
My "favorite" Lawrence O'Donnell
I always want to use R Lee Ermey's line from Full Metal Jacket to Leonard Lawrence aka Private Pyle to that guy.

I'll be nice and not repeat it.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Heh
I can't bear to watch more than 30 seconds of Lawrence O'Donnell, which is basically the amount of time it takes me to find the remote. I'm surprised you've seen enough of him to form an opinion.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
O'Donnell
I've only read a quote from him people like to post on Facebook where he, and liberals, claims credit for ending slavery, women's suffrage, and a bunch of other things Republicans did.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Back a century ago
The terms Republican and conservative were not synonymous as they are today, and neither were Democrat and progressive.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Markey...shut up cracker
nt

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Markey better hope this is a high turn-out primary
From all indications I'm seeing/hearing, Lynch's supporters are a heck of a lot more energized/organized. Markey thinks he can sleepwalk through the race. If every Democrat turned out to vote, Markey would probably prevail 60-40. As it stands, I suspect we're looking at more of a 53-47 affair, in either direction.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Correct me if I'm wrong
Isn't Ed Markey like Barbara Boxer? Progressives out here don't love Boxer. They just like her because "she votes the right way."  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
The progressive establishment loves him
They look at 35 years of voting the right way and all the bones he's thrown labor, the environmental lobby, etc. That's why the unions are endorsing him and places like DKE (which is pretty progressive establishment) are all over him.

But he doesn't have the grassroots appeal that Warren does. There's nothing fresh or invigorating about him, and he's not actively campaigning, so the only people amped up to vote for him are people who are tuned in to how both Congressmen have voted--that's to say, the political class.


[ Parent ]
To be Honest
I can't remember seeing him campaign for another Democrat in this state ever. I'm sure he's been out there at some point or another, but I've only seen him at sporting events once a while, and he usually leaves early...

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
GOTV
It's one thing to love the way he votes. It's another to love him the way a progressive does Elizabeth Warren. Progressives love the way Boxer votes but you won't get many who'll say they love her unless you ask that specifically. Feinstein isn't seen as progressive but people like her. If Markey isn't loved, will he be able to get out the vote.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
The question is, will limousine liberals bother to show up?
It sure sounds like unions and blue-collar Dems will for Lynch.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I think so
I saw people collecting Markey signatures at Harvard Square the last few days, and they seemed positively blase about it.

Honestly the #1 thing most people know about him is that he doesn't live here.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
I don't think it's any coincidence
That Lynch's splash page is a picture of him standing on his street in South Boston.

[ Parent ]
Pittsburgh-Mayor / Pa Political Corruption
http://www.post-gazette.com/st...

When the Orie scandal dies down, we get a new scandal.

28, Republican, PA-6


Pittsburgh Mayor
I've read 3 different news stories (including one in The Trib) and I'm struggling to understand exactly what's going on here. All I know is there's some debit cards floating around from a credit union.

Could you enlighten us with a cliff notes summary? Maybe even link to it in the next Roundup.

Thanks Ryan.

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
Thank you Ryan
I have a better understand now.

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
Markey wants an outside spending ban
http://www.boston.com/news/loc...

Now that Brown is out, anyway.

27, R, PA-07.


Breaking News: CA Dems losing a potential star!
Torey Van Oot‏@CapitolAlert

BREAKING: Sen. @michaelrubio is resigning - will direct governmental affairs for Chevron Corporation

He's obviously cashing in, as he had some family issues, thus why he dropped out of the CA-21 race against Valadao.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


not like they need 'potential stars'
I guess I can't blame a guy. The CA GOP is dead and the CA Dems are crowded. There's little room for anyone to move anywhere.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Nice thing about Term Limits
is that there's constant churn in the statewide offices, which is a big plus because CA has such an insurmountable incumbency advantage. Top 2 has also reduced the incumbency advantage in congress as well.

As a result CA Dems are better off than say, TX Republicans in terms of having a logjam of people waiting to move up.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Oh yeah
I've noticed that.  Aside from Charlie Gonzalez, has any TX Congressman voluntarily retired since 2004?

It just seems weird to me that Houston has almost exactly the same representatives now that it did in 2005, with the exception of bringing Steve Stockman back and replacing Tom Delay with Pete Olsen.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Ron Paul (nt)


Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Keep in mind (not you of course) that he didn't run last cycle
Because he and his wife had just had a kid who had Downs Syndrome. I would have to imagine that taking a lobbying/business type job will allow him to devote more time to his family than constantly being in Sacramento, let alone Washington.

Valadao is just renting this seat for four more years, come 2016 he's DOA.

NC-04; 113th Congress Districts & Members Guide / Statewide Election Data by County, CD, & State Lege Dist 2006-present for 50 States


[ Parent ]
Perhaps
But Valadao ran exceptionally well in 2012. He outran Doug LaMalfa, an equally qualified Republican facing an equally unqualified Democrat in a significantly redder seat. Hernandez may have been terrible, Valadao's 58% means he has some crossover appeal.

[ Parent ]
There's no perhaps here, it's just demographic destiny
this district is getting dramatically less white and more Hispanic at the fastest rate of perhaps any district in the country. It went from R+0 to D+4 this year and will continue to trend that way. Jim Costa would have easily crushed Valadao had he not been selfish and run in the safe seat. Even against a horrible candidate like Hernandez Valadao wouldn't cruise in 2016 simply due to demographics and presidential turnout.

I can't imagine Democrats running a total some dude in 2016 and getting outspent 10-1 while running some of the crappiest ads I've ever seen from a congressional candidate. Valadao won last year because Democrats didn't even bother to contest the election, not because he has crossover appeal. Swing voters generally don't vote for total nobodies.

Furthermore, local Democrats almost universally outperform Obama in the 1st district, just compare any of our statewide candidates' margins there from 2010 to their statewide margin and the gap is a good bit narrower than Obama's gap.

NC-04; 113th Congress Districts & Members Guide / Statewide Election Data by County, CD, & State Lege Dist 2006-present for 50 States


[ Parent ]
CA-21
I don't know where you get this about CA-1, but the Democrats who ran in SD-1 got slaughtered and the Democrat in AD-1 couldn't get past the primary.

Valadao had a larger margin than Buck McKeon, the same margin as Ed Royce, and nearly the margin Darrll Issa had. Costa barely scraped by in 2010 in a very Democratic district and only won by 15% this time against a nobody with no money. I don't think he would've beaten Valadao.

Democrats have no one to run here and don't win many elections in this area. The ones they do win are by unimpressive margins.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Dean Florez, Michael Rubio, Jim Costa
Any one of them would have won handily. The reason Costa scraped by in 2010 is because this region is notorious for a huge drop off in turnout during midterms.

You don't think the Blue Dog incumbent who represented 3/4ths of the district would have won a D+4 district? Give me a break. Costa would have won in a cake walk.

NC-04; 113th Congress Districts & Members Guide / Statewide Election Data by County, CD, & State Lege Dist 2006-present for 50 States


[ Parent ]
I agree Costa would have won
But who are you going to run? Xiong? There's not much of a bench in the area. Valadao has a very tough district but it's too soon to write him off three years before the election.

[ Parent ]
Oh, please
The Blue Dog incumbent ran in the adjacent D+8 district outspending his unknown never run for office opponent by a lot and managed to win by only 15%. So if Costa can't pull off a cake walk against a nobody in a D+8, how would he have done so in a D+4 against an experienced opponent who would've actually spent some money.


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
How many Democratic incumbents have lost
D+4 districts in the last decade outside of 2010? I don't think there's a single one.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
William Jefferson in Louisiana
But that was the definition of "unusual circumstances".

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
How many incumbents in D+8 districts won by only 15 points?
David Cicilline, Louise Slaughter, and Jim Costa. Jerry McNerney won a D+7 by 11 points. Ed Perlmutter won a D+6 by 13 points. The other four were going up against good opponents and Cicilline was scandal plagued. McNerney, of course, is also a Central Valley Democrat.

Costa might've won in 2012, but he certainly wouldn't have won in cake walk, as was suggested.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
My guess would be a 5-8 point win
No cake walk, but not a nailbiter either.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
With all due respect . . . .
a year ago you said Dems didn't win elections in Riverside Cty.  Or in place like CA-26.  

Those old cudgels died infamous deaths last November.

Dems don't win elections in places like CA-21.  Until they do.  


[ Parent ]
Demographic Destiny
"and will continue to trend that way"

How do you know this? Can you see in the future?

Baker '14
R, MA-3


[ Parent ]
I wouldn't assume a young energetic incumbent
Couldn't hold a marginal seat via maniacal constituent service. In fact, there are no examples of that...ever.... :)  

[ Parent ]
In this particular case yes I can
unless you see California Hispanics massively abandoning the Democratic party in 4 years. At the census the district was only 49% hispanic CVAP, but 67% Hispanic 18+ and 71% Hispanic by total population. So all of those kids who aren't old enough to vote but are citizens nonetheless will continue to come of age and vote heavily Democratic when they actually turn out while white Republican voters continue to die out. It may not result in a massive jolt, but the trend is incredibly clear given the Republican party's increasing unpopularity among hispanics.

NC-04; 113th Congress Districts & Members Guide / Statewide Election Data by County, CD, & State Lege Dist 2006-present for 50 States

[ Parent ]
Demographic Destiny
Republicans will continue to die and they'll overwhelmingly be replaced by Democrats in the electorate and eventually Democrats will have all 435 congressional districts!

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
most Republican districts aren't majority Hispanic
You're mocking his argument while ignoring the fact that in the Central Valley and parts of Texas, the 65+ demographic is over 2/3 White while the 18-30 demographic is under 1/3 White. It's impossible for that not to impact elections!

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
CA-21
This district is already 71% Hispanic. How much more Hispanic can it get? If Republicans are winning here when it's 71% Hispanic you have to wonder if it being 75-77% Hispanic is going to make it Democratic. This district already has a 15% Democratic registration advantage. That alone should tell you that it's unusual.

The Democratic meme is that Republicans are all dying and that young people are heavily Democratic. Since 2006 we've all been hearing that Republicans will lose every election. If demographics are destiny, you'll eventually get all the congressional districts.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
The district is 71% Hispanic
the 18+ VAP is nowhere near that, because Hispanics skew incredibly young.  If you continue to ignore that fact, I'm not going to waste my time debating you on this issue.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
CVAP I meant


Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Central Valley
You don't have to be condescending. You are correct that the CVAP is much lower than the overall population. You fail to identify the biggest reason and that's because the area is heavily populated with foreign farm workers, some documented, some undocumented. Either way they don't vote. And Barack Obama isn't going to fix that in time for 2016.

CTIronman and Shamlet make a good point. Unemployment in the Central Valley is very high and there aren't opportunities there. The state is choking off the area by limiting the water and they are going to destroy a lot of good farm land building the bullet train tracks. There might be some jobs building those tracks but the unions are going to make sure their members get them. Once these kids turn 18, they may leave.

Valadao won a D+4 open seat by 15 points. I think he can hold a D+5 seat as incumbent, even against a decent opponent.

It's certainly possible that in 2030 the district will be too Democratic. Knowing how tough it is to predict the next election, I prefer not to look at ones way down the road. I've already conceded that eventually Democrats will win all the districts, so there's no real point in debating what'll happen way down the road.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
I'm leaving it up because it's a worthwhile discussion
But I'll warn both of you to stop the name-calling.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Do the clock
'16 is still going to have most of those youths outside the voting pool.  So the electorate won't be tilted enough to do what you expect until '20. Which is an eon in politics.
BTW you are aware net migration MX to US is effectively zero now?

[ Parent ]
Net migration is zero
but the Hispanic teenagers and young adults aren't moving back to Mexico either.  They're entering the voting pool.  Even if the Hispanic VAP only grows one or two percent by 2016, that makes the district D+5.  Valadao, who isn't especially moderate, cannot hold a D+5 in a presidential year.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Not back to Mexico
but it's very possible they could move out of the district. They aren't making more farmland en masse nowadays, and thus there are are pretty much a set number of low-skill jobs in this region. I could see second-generation Hispanics moving out of CA-21 to places like LA with more jobs and opportunities.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
That is very true
But my guess is quite a few of them stay and either attend community college or don't attend college and work low-wage jobs in the towns.
The rate of college attendance among Central Valley children of migrant workers is probably below 25%.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Well
LA is what, a 3 hour bus ride? I would think somebody, say,  waiting tables in Hanford could probably get a substantial raise waiting tables in LA with a $25 bus ticket.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Good point
I'd be curious how common that is.  Quite the commute.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Well
I'm speaking of a move rather than a commute. But it's not a terribly large move for somebody who has no prospects in the SJV.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
True
Although the Hispanic culture is very family oriented, so that may stop some people from leaving.  Really, the only things I know are that:

1) The district is D+4.
2) Republicans are unlikely to do much better with Hispanics in 2016 than 2012. McCain numbers rather than Romney numbers are definitely plausible, but 2004 numbers seem unlikely.
3) Hispanics are growing as a percentage of the district's voters.
4) Nobody but Gary Miller holds down a D+4, and he's a total fluke.

I give Valadao 10% odds of surviving past 2016.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
It is certainly more than 10%
Even if Valadao votes like Ted Cruz, he has at least a 20% chance of holding the district for a couple more cycles just based on poor Dem recruitment.  

If Valadao is smart enough to vote his district on immigration and economic issues, he'll hold it until the next Dem wave.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
Central Valley isn't the Inland Empire
Can't compare a rural seat to a suburban seat. CA31 has a lot more liberals on issues like guns & life, more union voters and Miller is an aging district jumper; not a hungry freshman  

[ Parent ]
Yes, but
would the pay increase cover the increase in rent?

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Why can't an effective local congressman hold a D+5?
My word we've had R+5's held right & left by D incumbents
Now if '16 is a wave D year there's a problem but you can work a district hard enough to offset demographic erosion for quite awhile. But ok, you college kids know more than a former Hill staffer. I'll shut up since I went to a jock school.
One other thing: in a rural district a lot of "liberal votes" on social issues, guns & climate change aren't going to help a D candidate.  I doubt a migrant worker wants to shut down irrigation and lose his job  

[ Parent ]
Please don't make it personal
this is a good discussion but the name-calling is not welcome.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
It depends
If Valadao votes his district, he has a good chance of holding the seat at least until a Dem wave year.  If he votes like a rural Texas Republican, he'll be gone pretty quick.

Both parties have a problem in this district.  The GOP base is equivalent to what you'd find in white rural Texas.  The Dem voters are similar to what you'd find in South Texas.  But a moderate Repub is helped greatly by the top-two system here.

I expect Valadao will support immigration reform (the Senate bill) this year.  That will make for interesting dynamics in 2014.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
Valadao should run hard right on social issues
No constiuency here for gun control or green issues ; that's voting the district  

[ Parent ]
Oh I agree there
But on immigration and economic issues he needs to be centrist.  Voting for things like the Ryan budget could be his political death certificate.

I do fear however, that there is going to be a big backlash from the GOP base in 2014 to passing a path to citizenship.  It is a must for the long run, but it could really sour turnout in 2014 among white blue-collar conservatives.  But I doubt the the Dems can get someone credible for 2014 to take advantage in this district.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
No
He has no reason to run hard right on social issues, but this district certainly is a socially conservative one.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
Pete King parallel
King makes nice with labor on LI and never publicly disses them. Meanwhile on cultural issues (other than guns) he serves up raw meat. A Marco Rubio/Pete King mash up that works local stuff hard & disses O on guns, water & God can work here  

[ Parent ]
Valadao isn't a moderate
That's the first problem.

Secondly, Republicans are much worse at holding down Dem districts than vice versa.  Valadao doesn't cut the Jim Leach/Rob Simmons profile, and even then those guys are no longer in office.  How many Republicans held D+4s or more going into the 2006 elections?  Only a handful.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
See the district
This calls for a Pete King style moderate ; not a pro-choice tree hugger; all moderates are not the same  

[ Parent ]
Thoughts
A lot of people don't consider King a moderate.  Valadao hasn't really shown many signs of being any kind of moderate.  I do agree not all moderates are the same.  Are people still using tree hugger in 2013?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Valadao wasn't considered a moderate in the Assembly
I know not all moderates are the same.  But Valadao isn't going to hold this seat.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Heh
CTIronMan, let's find an Ivy League-educated, Andrew Roraback-clone candidate for CA-21. What could go wrong? ;)

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
2016
A year ago I said that Democrats didn't win in Riverside County but that this could change because Riverside County was becoming more Democratic. I wasn't going to favor Democrats until they actually won, although the district was ripe for a Democrat. Gary Miller won an Inland Empire seat in 2012 and has no chance of retaining it in 2014.

I never said Democrats don't win in Ventura County. Democrats have been winning in Ventura County for a few years. I expected them to run Fran Pavley in CA-26 and thought she'd have a good shot.

The Central Valley isn't the Inland Empire, which is becoming more Democratic, or Ventura County, which isn't but didn't need to be. It already leans to the Democrats.

The Central Valley is one of the few places in America where Democrats can have a 15 point registration advantage and lose a district. It was the only place in California in 2010 and 2012 where the Democratic vote went down from the primary to the general. CA-21 was the only California district where Republicans gained registration from September 2012 to October 2012. There isn't a lot that's comparable to this district. Remember that Fiorina won it by double digits.

I don't understand any assumption that 2016 will be a good year for Democrats. Yes, the demographics in 2016 should be better for Democrats than 2014, but Democrats eeked out a 1 point congressional win when Obama won by 4. Should we assume that Democrats will automatically win the Presidency in 2016 and by more than 4 points? What happens if a Republican wins the Presidency? What if the Democrat isn't as strong with minorities as Barack Obama? Joe Biden isn't going to get minorities to the polls.

Frankly, I don't believe that there's a 100% chance that 2016 is as good a year for Democrats as 2012. And really the Central Valley isn't as good for Democrats as the rest of the country is anyway. If Valadao retains his seat in 2014 I'd put him as the favorite for 2016.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
No doubt
Joe Biden won't be getting anyone to the polls since he won't be on the ballot..

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
Oh, not much
But watch P2 think a Latino surnamed Liz Esty is a dead to rights winner  

[ Parent ]
Victor Davis Hanson (D) for CA-21
Wouldn't that be amazing if he made the runoff with Valadao? lol.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
The problem is
that the Latino growth comes from the kids turning 18.
It also comes from current Latinos (citizens, legal immigrants, illegal immigrants) having more babies than whites.  The majority of babies born in the last two years are non-white.  
So even if there is no more immigration from Mexico (and illegal immigrants won't become citizens until 2025 at the earliest even w/ immigration reform), there is a huge demographic issue.

There are a lot of people on the right who still have their heads in the sand and think that we can win by simply turning out the white vote.  Until that attitude changes, long-term fortunes for conservatism look like a disaster.  
The number one priority should be to appeal to non-whites who are otherwise pretty conservative (outside of civil rights and immigration).  Many of them simply do not consider the GOP a viable option, because of stereotypes about the party.    

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
This is extremely state by state specific
Large populations of Hispanics are clustered in only a few states.

Texas: That state GOP is the best in the country getting Hispanic votes. (It needs to be)

Florida: That state GOP needs to determine reason than the Cuban vote moved towards Obama in 12 compared to 08, and figure out what they've done wrong. I suspect addressing this will spill over into attracting non-Cuban Hispanics.

California, New York, several other blue states: This is of local importance only as these states are so far left no Republican candidate for President wins it unless a 72 or 84 style landslide occurs.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Not just those states
Florida (17%) is not the only swing state that would be affected by a continued Dem supermajority among Hispanics.  California, NY, and Illinois are largely irrelevant, I agree.

States like Colorado (14%) and Nevada (19%) have moved from leans GOP to leans Dem because of these voters.  Swing states like Pennsylvania (6%), Virginia (5%), North Carolina(4%) have growing Hispanic populations (numbers in parenthesis % of Hispanics in the voting pool in 2012). And currently safe GOP states like Arizona (18%) and Georgia could be next to be competitive.  If we lose the Hispanic vote in these states by 75-25, Dems will win these states in the long-term.  

At one point anti-immigration sentiment helped us in California; in 1994 the GOP won back the state Assembly and nearly toppled Dianne Feinstein.  But in the long term, it backfired in a really bad way.  The same thing could happen in other states.  

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
LaMalfa's opponent ran in 2010
Better name recognition in the district explains that, with Hernandez, he had no name recognition at all. He underperformed Obama and the Democratic Assembly candidate in the Kern County portion by 15%, which that wouldn't have happened to a solid candidate.

[ Parent ]
CA-21
Are you talking about Rudy Salas? He had a lackluster 52.8% in his district even though Obama was getting 57.3% in the district. Hernandez was worse but Salas wasn't running against a world beater.

LaMalfa's opponent was better but what about all the other Republicans? Valadao performed as well as Darrell Issa, who's in an R+5. He was just a little behind Ken Calvert, who was in an R+10.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Regardless, Salas still performed better in Kern County
Overall, Salas ran behind Obama, but he still got a reasonable benchmark out of Kern County, which is where the bulk of Democratic votes are and he got 61% compared to Obama's 66%. Hernandez only got 52% and that was a very strong under performance. Costa or Florez wouldn't have done that poorly in Kern. Valadao still could have won by way over performing in Kings and slightly so in Kern, but it would have been a much narrower victory.

[ Parent ]
Valadao is hardly dead
http://www.turnto23.com/news/s...

Democrats have a real problem in the Central Valley and don't win a lot of elections. The White voters are really really Republican. We're talking rural Texas or Georgia Republican. There are a lot of Democrats registered there that are farm laborers and migrants and don't vote. Look at Jim Costa. He's in a district that has a 15 point Democratic registration advantage and won by 15% against some guy. Judy Chu has a 13 point advantage and wins by 28%.

For Democrats to win CA-21 they'll need a really strong candidate. With Rubio out it'll be harder to find a candidate like that.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
From CA10 vantage...
CA21 is safe for Valadao as long as he does not vote for something like Ryan budget.  Yes the demographics of this district are changing, but keep in mind that the Latinos of this district are fairly different than those in upper Central Valley, like CA-10 and CA-9 where they are concentration in Stockton and Modesto.  And as the general theory goes, the more conservative the white population, more conservative their neighbors (except AA's).  CA21 may well be like TX with white population 75%+ republican and latinos 35%+, as opposed to 50%/15% statewide.  

42, Hardcore R Except Abortion & Gay Marriage, CA-10

[ Parent ]
Rubio's star burned out
after word got out that he played the stooge for Lance Armstrong. http://articles.latimes.com/20...

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
New Map?
Since redistricting his seat got dramatically more Republican; he'd probably need to carpetbag to get re-elected to the state senate  

[ Parent ]
I forgot to add that the Dems no longer have a supermajority, at least until the special election later in the year


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
SD-14 and 16
The way it works in California is that a special election will be conducted in Rubio's old SD-16, although he was judged as being likely to run in the new SD-14 in 2014. The two have similar registration numbers, although I'm not sure how much of SD-16 is in SD-14. Boxer got beat in the district, so it's viewed as a prime Republican pick-up. I'd go for it in a special.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Rahm Emanuel has a 19 percent approval rating
http://www.nbcchicago.com/blog...

Carol Moseley Braun's probably thinking, "Crap, even I could've done better than this."

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


4th most miserable city in America
http://washingtonexaminer.com/...

1. Detroit
2. Flint
3. Rockford
4. Chicago

The city is the next big fiscal crisis.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
But Rahm's running for President in 2016!
See here:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/a...

What does he care what a bunch of rubes in Chicago think of him. Rahm's Presidential material!


[ Parent ]
I don't blame Rahm
I blame Chicago.  

26, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
F.I.B.
Any Midwesterner is familiar with the term.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Actually, no
My dad, who has lived either in Chicago, on the North Shore, or in Western Illinois his entire life, had no idea what the term meant when I mentioned it to him when we were in Indiana over Thanksgiving break. Neither did my Michigander mother who spent her first 18 years in Michigan, her college years in Minnesota, and all of her years since that in Chicago or on the North Shore.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
NE-Sen/Gov; Foley considering
http://nebraskaradionetwork.co...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

I think he'd be a great candidate
but despite his name often being in the mix for other offices, he's really never indicated any interest in any of them before. He's been unusually high-profile for a State Auditor-his audits of state agencies have got a lot of media attention.  

42, R, NE-1.

[ Parent ]
CA-7; Elizabeth Emken looking to move to Sacramento County to challenge Cong. Bera
http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito... Alert

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Meh
We could do worse than her, but we could do better too. Viable option if others decline.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Emken in CA-7
We don't have a deep bench here. The only elected officials I've identified were Sacramento Supervisors Susan Peters and Roberta MacGlashan and I don't know either of them.

She lost the district 53.5%-46.5%. She didn't beat Mitt here. He lost 50.6%-47.0%. So she didn't have a lot of strength. She would have decent name recognition and she has fundraised for office. So she wouldn't be starting from scratch.

She doesn't look like a great candidate but she might be the best we have.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Doesn't she owe her senate vendors hundreds of thousands of dollars?
Easy attack against her to say she needs to pay off debt from one campaign before embarking on another.  

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
She gave her campaign $200k
The FEC shows her as having $4,479 in debts and $4,140 in C-O-H as of December 31. I'm sure any issues will be settled before she tries another campaign.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
A good one
The marginal voter we need in CA-7 to get over 50%+ is white suburban women, EE would be a perfect fit for that.  

42, Hardcore R Except Abortion & Gay Marriage, CA-10

[ Parent ]
Mia Love is a major snoozefest
Watching her at the leadership program she's speaking at right now. Speaks in platitudes mixed in with boring stories. "Freedom, fighting, perseverance, hard work, sacrifice, children, once I was a child and blah"

I don't mind if she runs again in ut-4 but I'd keep her far away from the national stage if possible.  

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)


Heh
You're about to open up Pandora's Box ;). Glad others are catching on.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
For what it's worth
It sounds like she's running. Someone just asked a question about her futurw and she came very close to acknowledging it was on for sure. As close as you can come without formally announcing.  

34, R, CO-1 (Degette)

[ Parent ]
Ick
Here's to hoping a serious state legislator from Salt Lake County takes the plunge.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
No
This is Utah. Here's to hoping someone we've never heard of runs.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
No
That gave you Chris Stewart.

From IL-09, Living in PA-07.

Carl DeMaio for CA-52!


[ Parent ]
As well as
Orrin Hatch, Bob Bennett, Mike Lee, Jon Huntsman, Mike Leavitt, Jason Chaffetz... Except in rare cases, you simply don't win in Utah without being a total unknown.  

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Those two go hand in hand
If she's going to run for UT-04 again, she should stay as far away from the national stage as possible. Money will find her. But if she wants to win, she's an idiot if she doesn't spend every day of the next 20 months in Utah, shaking hands, cutting ribbons, and kissing babies. Retail campaigning still works.

[ Parent ]
Agree
If Mia Love wants to win, she has to show she wants to be a Congresswoman instead of a media sensation.  Some of the most popular members of Congress are often the most nationally detached politicians.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
I would suggest targeting
areas in which Romney carried that she didn't.

And yes, focus on Utah.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Liz Cheney
I don't see Liz Cheney running for Congress. She has presidential ambitions--realistic or not. Running for the House won't get her there.

Where are you getting this from?
She obviously wants a seat in Wyomimg and most speculate it is a senate seat. But, the word is that Enzi prefers Lummis and won't retire until late in the cycle (March/April, when the deadline is May 30th 2014) to give Lummis a head start. Cheney is young and Barrasso isn't likely a lifer, so if she takes the house seat (likely if open) than making her way into the senate will be relatively easy at some point.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Where am I getting this from?
Well, my a**. But it makes sense. If Cheney wanted to be in the House she could have stayed in NoVa and ran for Frank Wolf's seat once he retires.

[ Parent ]
Please try not to be vulgar
Cheney would likely have a safe house seat in WY versus a GOP leaning one in VA-10. Not only that, but in VA moving up to the senate would be more difficult than in WY. I don't see the presidential aspirations, but I do see her wanting a future career as a senator and WY is the state that would give her the easiest path.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
I thought I was cleaning it up! :)
This is like speculating on who a VP choice will be: trying to guess what's going on in one person's head. Still, I think my guess is the right one.

[ Parent ]
New Republic Article
BTW, New Republic has an article out today on this subject:

http://www.newrepublic.com/art...


[ Parent ]
All of this is pretty redundant ever since last year
And no where does it mention presidential ambitions.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
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