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Political Roundup for February 25, 2013

by: shamlet

Mon Feb 25, 2013 at 07:00:00 AM EST


Welcome to another week.

Senate:

NE-Sen, NE-Gov, NE-1, NE-Aud: State Auditor Mike Foley (R) is considering all of these races. I guess that means he wants to move up but is looking for the easiest opportunity to do so.

More NE-Sen: Gov. Dave Heineman (R) is continuing to send out very loud signals that he will only be dragged to the Senate kicking and screaming.

MA-Sen: State Rep. Dan Winslow (R) has collected 25K signatures, well more than enough to make the ballot barring a McCotteresque situation. There is some question over whether ex-US Attorney Michael Sullivan (R), relying on an all-volunteer signature gathering force, will be able to make Wednesday's 10K signature threshhold for placement on the ballot.  

More MA-Sen: Gabriel Gomez (R) sought the interim Senate appointment from Gov. Deval Patrick. I'm not exactly sure what conclusions to draw from that.

Even More MA-Sen: Rep. Ed Markey now joins Joe Biden in the club of Dem pols who have made awkward slavery references, comparing Citizens United to Dred Scott vs. Sanford.

IA-Sen, IA-Sen '16: Gov. Terry Branstad (R) is openly advocating Rep. Tom Latham as Republicans' Senate candidate over fellow Rep. Steve King. However, Branstad is very careful not to disparage King and suggests he might support King in 2016 if Grassley retires (as seems likely). It doesn't take much dot-connecting to suspect there may be a deal being brokered between Branstad, Grassley, and the two congressmen for Latham to run this year and King to run in 2016.

KY-Sen: I don't actually think Democrats realize that Ashley Judd is thinking about running in Kentucky and not California. Fresh off attacking McConnell for not supporting Obamacare's contraception mandate, they're at him again with a withering attack over his support for gun rights.

ME-Sen: I'd chalk this one up to bored reporter syndrome. Ex-Treasurer Bruce Poliquin (R) called himself a "candidate for US Senate" in an e-mail promoting his new newspaper op-ed column. Naturally, eager reporters pounced on this as a sign he was gearing up to primary Susan Collins. Polqiuin later clarified that he was merely referring to his unsuccessful 2012 primary candidacy.

Governor:

SD-Gov: 81-year old multimillionaire and maverick Republican State Sen. Stan Adelstein of Rapid City is considering a bid for Governor, incensed by Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R)'s rejection of Obamacare's Medicaid expansion. However, Adelstein doesn't sound terribly enthusiastic; the moderate Republican might stand a better chance as an Independent or Democrat than trying to primary the sitting Governor from the left.

RI-Gov: Treasurer Gina Raimondo (D) has hired 2002 nominee Myrth York's Chief of Staff as she prepares for her own run for Governor. The CW seems to be pointing towards a Chafee bid as an I rather than a D, which helps our odds greatly.

AR-Gov: A new poll shows ex-Rep. Asa Hutchinson (R) in strong position against declared candidate and ex-LG Bill Halter (D) as well as possible candidate and ex-Rep. Mike Ross (D). Ross is considerably stronger than Halter though and may be Dems' only good hope of keeping this seat.

MA-Gov: Bay State Republicans are hoping to have their 2014 dish both baked and browned, hoping that the two biggest names in the party will join together in a Brown-Baker ticket. I personally think Baker's talents would be wasted on the LG slot and he'd be better off targeting the (probably open) Treasurer's race, where his resume and name rec would make him a very strong contender.

PA-Gov: State Sen. Tony Williams (D-Philadelphia) endorses Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D)'s prospective bid, while Treasurer and possible primary challenger Rob McCord (D) is less excited about Schwartz's entry.

NY-Gov: Are the wheels coming off the Cuomo freight train? The previously highly politically-adept Governor has been beset by alternating criticism of tacking too far or not far enough to the left.

House:

IL-2: Snow is in the forecast for Tuesday's primary, raising the slight possibility of very low turnout upsetting Robin Kelly (D)'s coronation.

AR-4: State Sen. Bruce Maloch (D-Magnolia) is interested in this seat... but only if Rep. Tom Cotton (R) vacates it to run for the Senate. Maloch brands himself as a Blue Dog and would likely be a strong candidate, but will inevitably face a tough fight for the very red seat.

CA-7: 2012 Senate nominee Elizabeth Emken (R) is mulling a move from Danville to Sacramento to challenge Rep. Ami Bera (D). Our bench is fairly thin in this seat so Emken might be a decent option.

State & Local:

PA-LG: Bradford CE Mark Smith (D) becomes the second Dem to announce his candidacy for LG. Given Bradford County's small size, Smith has quite some work to do to expand beyond his NEPA base.

CA-SD-16: State Sen. Michael Rubio (D-Shafter) is resigning to take a position with Chevron, triggering a low-turnout special in a D-leaning Central Valley seat.

MD-AA-CE: The Anne Arundel County Council has chosen technocrat Laura Neuman (R) to be the interim County Executive. Neuman, formerly a economic development director for Howard CE Ken Ulman (D), was the choice of the 3 Dems on the board along with one of four Republicans. Neuman will likely run for re-election in 2014, but will face a tough primary fight against State Del. Steve Schuh (R), who already has a large warchest.

WA-Snohomish-CE: Snohomish CE Aaron Reardon (D) will resign in May, amidst allegations of Reardon using his position to harrass his political rivals and using county money for an extramarital affair.

MI-Dems: Longtime MI Dem chair Mark Brewer was ousted by Lon Johnson this weekend, while MIGOP chair Bobby Schostak was re-elected.

shamlet :: Political Roundup for February 25, 2013
Tags: (All Tags)
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Polls closed at 3pm?
Why so early?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
They voted
all day Sunday, I think. But yeah, 3pm is early.

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

[ Parent ]
Exit polls
House: Bersani ( centre-left ) 34.5 - Berlusconi ( centre-right ) 29.00

Senate: Bersani 37.00 - Berlusconi 31.00

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative


[ Parent ]
Leaked exit polls
Sky TV (Chamber of Deputies):

Common Good of Italy (big tent center-left): 34.5%
Unnamed right-wing coalition (Berlusconi and friends): 29%
Five Star Movement (populist joke party): 19%
With Monti for Italy (europhile centrists): 9.5%
Civil Revolution (communists and greens): ?

The threshold for seats in the Chamber is 4%.

SKY TV (Senate):

Common Good of Italy: 37%
Unnamed right-wing coalition: 31%
Five Star Movement: 16.5%
With Monti for Italy: 9%
Civil Revolution: ?

The threshold to obtain Senate seats in a region is 8%.

Whichever party gets the most votes in the lower chamber (Chamber of Deputies) is guaranteed 55% of the seats, in the upper chamber (Senate) its region-by-region -- whoever gets the most votes in each individual region is guaranteed 55% of the seats from that region. IBC (center-left) was always going to control the Chamber, but its unlikely they'll have a majority in the Senate. This is why more people are voting pragmatically in the Senate.

Civil Revolution is likely to pass the 4% threshold for seats in the Chamber, but is unlikely to hold seats in the Senate.

RAI leaked exit poll:

Common Good of Italy: 35-37%
Unnamed right-wing coalition: 29-31%
Five Star Movement: 19-21%
With Monti for Italy: 8-10%
Civil Revolution: ?


(-9.38, -7.49), libertarian socialist, KY 01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy."


-- Stanisław Lem


[ Parent ]
MI Dems
I think Brewer has done a great job considering the circumstances.  The Democrats are self packed, but were able to control the State House for four years.

I suspect the real cause is that Brewer was not a huge pusher of ballot inititatives.

28, Republican, PA-6


The guy just doesn't raise money
The MI Democratic party has been a wholly-owned subsidiary of the UAW for so long that Brewer never really had to raise money to build a real party apparatus. He pretty much IS the state party. They don't have an Executive Director or Political Director or much of anything, really.

I think with the crumbling of the unions, Dems in the state are realizing that they need a real political party structure (and unions are realizing they don't want to bankroll everything forever), and Johnson is the first step in that.


[ Parent ]
English news here
http://live.lastampa.it/Event/...

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

Left wing UK paper The Guardian
has a blog about the elections here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/worl...

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

[ Parent ]
it's 16pm here and still no official results!


38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
Should we take this
over to a diary on the left, perhaps?

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

[ Parent ]
I dont know we havent a single precint out...
Never happened before...

38, male, Roma ( Italia ), conservative

[ Parent ]
OK, I've made a diary
Let's take this over there...

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

[ Parent ]
If Braley loses in 2014
Does he get another shot in 2016?

27, R, PA-07.

Depends on Vilsack
If Vilsack doesn't want to run for some reason, definitely. The other way for him to get a second shot is for Braley to lose by a small margin (i.e. <5 points) in which case he could conceivably box Vilsack out or even beat him in a primary.

If neither of those conditions are met, I think it's 2014 or bust for Braley - he may have to look towards the 2018 state elections (either for Governor or something like AG) to get back on his feet.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
CA-AG; San Bernardino DA Michael Ramos running?
http://touch.latimes.com/#sect...

Win or lose it would probably give him great exposure. We're he to win he would probably be the favorite for us in 2018 for governor. If he were to lose, he could run again in 2018 or run for congress, assuming Gary Miller loses this cycle.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Good get
I think we'd be wise to go all-in on one downballot office this time since it looks like we've already punted the Governorship. Harris might well be the easiest target to knock off.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Harris
Has SUSA or anyone else done an approval on her?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
i can't imagine most people know who she is
NT.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Yea
She has not rocked the boat one way or another.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Media Pastime
One of their favorite pastimes is bashing Republicans, acting as if we just entered the minority this year and we're suddenly non-competitive. The funny thing is that even though we're so irrelevant the media likes to write about us more than they write about the Democrats.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
NY Split?
The topic of NY dividing into two states (think upstate and downstate) creeps up every once in a while.  Now is another once in a while, as per this article.

Representative on Congress: Rep. Turner, OH

It really makes a lot of sense
NYS is really based on 19th century economic geography, when the Hudson River was America's main economic corridor. Nowadays there's very little to tie it together as a cohesive state.

The other nice thing about it is that upstate would be very close to EVEN. We would have at least a shot at winning the EVs and Senate seats. I think it could happen within my lifetime.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Will never happen


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
County votes
Dear Moshe,

I found the county-vote process interesting.  I think the vote would end up wasted, but I think it makes sense to at least hold it.

Representative on Congress: Rep. Turner, OH


[ Parent ]
Democrats won't go for it unless a state like CA is split too, to give them two extra senators


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
They have reasons to like it to
Again, it would be somewhere around EVEN (I actually think it would be D+.5 or so) which could give them 2 extra EVs when they win it, and they'd probably have at least one Senator too. Local Dems would also have lots more patronage to dole out in building prisons and transfer payments would stop to upstate.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I doubt they would risk a senate seat or two, a new governor, and a legislature that could redraw upstate
For two EV.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
But they'd still have two Senators
from Downstate. And if they did it now they'd probably have Gillibrand as a sure thing. So they'd either gain one seat or two.

Upstate is also quite hard to gerrymander effectively in either direction. I've tried it a couple times and the best you can reasonably get without going Maryland-level ugly is 6R-4D - and the Dems could make up half of that by drawing Grimm out of a seat downstate.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Downside
What if Gibson wins the other senate seat? Maggie Brooks as governor? And what if the GOP wins the new North NY legislature? I would think most Democrats wouldn't be too happy. And under that scenario, Gillibrand would be vulnerable every election cycle, as stronger GOP candidates won't be as down about the idea of challenging her.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
So you add one of each party
I don't think that's a bad deal for anyone if you just raise the filibuster threshold to 61. But that seat could just as easily go to Higgins or Owens. And Duffy could easily win the Governorship. And Gillibrand wouldn't necessarily be DOA after a pivot back to the right... I mean, Brown held on just fine in OH and he's just as liberal as she is.

The point is both national parties have an upside. And both local parties have an upside - more patronage all around, downstate stops sending money upstate, upstate gets to pursue its own policies. Of course there are hypotheticals in which one party loses, but the most likely scenario is that it doesn't affect the national picture that much at all.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
I would be for it, but again, the downside seems to be more for Democrats
In NY right now, Dems dominate statewide. To give some of their EV into the tossup category (From safe), along with the other offices I already mentioned, it would seem like quite a gamble for Democrats. But, that's just my two cents.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Dems probably won't go for it
unless Westchester in in included in Upstate.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
California split
Southern California will never let go of Northern Californias water.

[ Parent ]
I would imagine a deal would be made prior to the split
There are many deals between states with regards to water issues, so I don't see that being much of a problem.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Two States
Southern California (Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura) gets most of its water from the Colorado River. The Central Valley needs Northern California's water more than SoCal does. I'm sure if California can make a deal with Nevada and Arizona for water, they can make one with the evil NoCal's for whatever else they need.

There are two parts of the process for becoming a new state. First, the existing state would have to approve it. I imagine that if a significant population that made sense geographically voted in a high percentage (60%?) to form a new state the legislature and governor would go with it. This'd be especially true in a place like New York or California where there's more than enough population for more than one state. They'd leave it up to the counties to decide what state they wanted to be in. Westchester would get a vote. Once the proposition gets on the ballot I doubt anyone can deny it for partisan reasons.

Congress would need to approve it, but how could they say no if the state, or two states as it would be, want it? This isn't the same as DC statehood since DC isn't a state and it being Federal land makes it unique.


R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Splitting CA in 2
Here's an atricle on it from 2011:
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/need-t...

The basic plan was to make a Liberal CA and a Conservative one. So LA-San Fran would be 1 state and San Diego and inland would be another.

CA sucession is much farther along than NY since NYC taxpayers basically subsitize Upstate & Western NY residents. So no way Upstate or Western NY would want to give up the free money from downstate while NYC doesnt want to give up the extra political clout the added Upstate population gives them


[ Parent ]
When talking about splitting states, politics comes first
So, such ideas like the article you posted will never pass.

The only way CA Dems will accept splitting the state is if it is essentially two balanced, likely Dem states. So, it might mean spliting it from Bakersfield on up, but regardless after the fundamental politics are taken care of, it will then be the local issues that creates divisions.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Disagree
I recognize that Democrats in the legislature and Jerry Brown could kill it, but if the counties vote overwhelmingly to form a new state, I doubt they could. Of course, secession might have a tough time passing overwhelmingly in places like San Diego county if Democrats call it a Republican power grab.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
The only people in NY who want to secede is Staten Island
There was a big push for this in the early 1990s when NY was going to heck in a hand basket. A lot of SI secessionist wanted to be there own city or get combined with NJ. But 8 yrs of Rudy and 12 yrs of Bloomberg combined with NJ income tax rate skyrocketing over the last 20 yrs has pretty much squashed all that talk.

[ Parent ]
BoE #2 and #3
They could make roughly one state and #1 and #4 could make another. You could just include the portions of BoE #2 that are in Santa Barbara and most of Ventura County into the Coastal state. You could include North LA County and some of eastern Ventura county in the Inland state.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
not a good one from National perspective for the Senate
At best, the more conservative one would be in the tossup category. Why risk adding 2 more D senators?

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
The states we should be advocating for are Lincoln and Jefferson
Washington and Oregon are lost causes, so why not link up Eastern WA with the Idaho Panhandle, and rural Oregon with inland NorCal? That's likely 4 more GOP senators.

The state of Superior is also interesting. It would hurt us in Michigan, be a wash in Wisconsin, but could help us flip Minnesota.


[ Parent ]
In the NW, I'd perfer
combining Western WA & Western OR (roughly the Cascades but ensure Portland is on the Western part) into one state and Eastern WA & OR into the other.

But I'd first start by consolidating all states in New England into a new state (called New England).

This would eliminate several D seats in the Senate along with getting it up to a reasonable geographic area.

Delaware would also be absorbed into Maryland, eliminating another 2 D seats in the senate.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
It'd never happen
For starters, it'd likely just give the Democrats 2 more Senators and 2 more EVs (I'm pretty sure Obama would have won the proposed state in '08, and maybe even '12, and the demographics there aren't getting better for us), and be horribly incompatible demographically.  Orange County has no reason to be attached to Redding and not LA County.

The best way to split CA up would be to create a SOCAL State, a Bay Area State, and a Central Valley state (roughly corresponding to the State's 3 major regions).

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Hint Hint
nudge nudge
http://www.redracinghorses.com...

21-Cubano, R, CA-38
City Commission Vice-Chair, College Republican Club President


[ Parent ]
Slicing and combining
Instead of new states, how about slicing and combining with existing states?  Here is my wish list for that,
-East of cascades in both OR and WA to ID, red areas in blue states combined with crimson red state of ID, people in Seattle and Portland may not have much problem with it. Gain 4 EV's.
North East and East of Sierra down to death  valley to NV.  No major water issues because there is not any sources here.  Very red area of CA and still very white.  SF/LA liberals may actually like having an alternate ski area in 0% income tax zone in addition to Incline village (Mammoth Lakes), 23 EV's go to NV and make NV slightly R leaning.
Tucson to New Mexico.  Let the liberals scream when they have to pay NM income tax, and we keep AZ red for ever.  Do loose 12 EV's but I'll trade the security of keeping AZ red.
Rio Grande Valley to NM.  Poor NM, getting all impoverished hispanic areas.  Again we loose 34 EV's, but keep TX red forever.
-Arlington and Alexandria counties back to DC.  VA stays red for a long time.

And now for some fantasy from my decade in the midwest

-Chicago to Lake Michigan.  IL turns red.
-Detroit to Canada.  MI turns red.
-Minneapolis floating down Mississipi river.  MN still does not turn red!! Those damm Scandinavian socialists.  

42, Hardcore R Except Abortion & Gay Marriage, CA-10


[ Parent ]
Oy!
õ.õ

Libertarian Conservative, Norway.

[ Parent ]
No clearly:
Draw one State starting in Madsion, heading East to Milwaukee along the Illinois Border, then take Lake County IL, Cook, Lake county IN, keep moving East taking in Wayne, Oakland and Washtenaw county in Michigan, then along Lake Erie in Northern and Northeastern Ohio, finally ending in Allegheny and Erie counties in Pennsylvania.  You'd make every state in the Lower Midwest Republican.

While we're at it, do another starting in PWC Virginia, heading North through DC MOntgomery and PGC, Howard and Blatimore (City and county), then duck through Delaware to Delaware and Montgomery counties and Philly, then across New Jersey towards New York City.

Also, make sure to use water contiguity to attach the blue parts of Southern Florida to that state as well.  Or Maybe Puerto Rico if we can.

Throw Eastern Tennessee in with North Carolina, West Texas in with New Mexico, NW Oregon to Washinton in exchange for the areas East of the Cascades.  Merge Utah and Nevada.

There needs to be a Diary of this.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Schwartz announced for PA-GOV
Sorta.
http://www.philly.com/philly/n...

25, Male, R, NY-10

Sort of
If I was her, I would flirt with it for awhile before jumping in.  She can raise as much money as she wants in her congressional account and transfer it to her state account, but she cannot transfer it back.  Gerlach made the mistake of doing that in 2010, which drained his congressional account.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Smart idea (the fundraising)
But overall, I think she shouldn't run. It would be a huge mistake, ans a very dangerous game of musical chairs. In addition to winding up with no "chair" herself, she would be walking away from a lot of opportunities in Washington. The Dem caucus has pretty much given her anything she ever wants or ask for, in exchange for her staying in Washington.

She serves on Ways & Means and received a waiver to serve on the Budget Committee, where she is currently the #2 Democrat. Very rarely does any House Member serve on Ways & Means and serve on a second committee, let alone be so high up on said committee.

Not to mention, I think she'd be a disaster as a candidate for Governor. But that's another discussion for another day.

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
A Loser Issue for the GOP at the Polls
http://thehill.com/blogs/floor...

Someone needs to tell Republicans that bashing Planned Parenthood, while great with the base, hurts us at the polls. A significant public perceives Planned Parenthood as an organization that provides vital health services to the poor for free and that they'd no longer be able to do so without government funding.

Of course, Planned Parenthood receives very little of the overall Federal budget and cutting their funding won't impact the deficit. All it'd do would make people like us happy that government wasn't giving money to an organization that doesn't need it or funding abortions. I'd like to cut the funding too, but this is an irrelevant loser issue for Republicans at the polls.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Agree
The Republicans have botched this issue royally.  Instead of making this about opposing any government funding for any reproductive health organization (pro-life or pro-choice) the Republicans targeted the most prominent pro-choice organization and it became a battle over womens rights.  Of course its not about limited government, but abortion, which makes this a losing cause.

My fiancee put the situation in perspective.  She is pro-life, but she has strong misgivings of attacking Planned Parenthood as she knows a lot of girls go there for birth control when their parents refuse to get it for them.  She says the Republicans are being delusional what the consequence would be.

The problem is when a Republican challenges pro-life groups receiving federal aid they are attacked (remember the pro-lifers backed Specter over Toomey because the latter wanted to cut their federal funding?).

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
free birth control for people who can afford it
Is essentially the antithesis of limited government.

Pay them off if you must, but it is what it is.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Public Broadcasting
Mitt Romney apologizing to Big Bird was shooting himself in the foot.  Like Planned Parenthood the amount allocated to them is small. Yet conservatives are obsessed with it. Why? Because it's easy to understand and rationalize for conservatives.

CPB and NPR shouldn't receive government funding for a few reasons, not the least of which that they don't need it.

Yet when the public hears about this they hear that Republicans want to shutter NPR because they want to eliminate what they perceive as a liberal voice, which in their opinion is neutral, and close PBS because they don't care if children learn.

We lose.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
i don't disagree
Sometimes you have to do distasteful things.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Question is whether you want to win the battle
to lose the war.  Because that's what happened in 2012.

Defunding PP/NPR/PBS was going to be vetoed by Obama and was not going to pass the Senate.  Pushing it anyway only increased the likelihood that Obama was going to get elected.  If you really wanted to get rid of PP, you should have waited until after Mitt Romney was elected.

Look at what Scott Walker did in Wisconsin.  Had Walker announced in 2010 that he was going to get rid of public sector unionization if he became governor, he may well have lost in 2010 (as it was he won by <6%).

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
Not necessarily
I think you could have gutted Planned Parenthood's funding without specifically targeting it.  Instead of going after Planned Parenthood, the Republicans should have gutted all reproductive health funding across the board.  Instead the Republicans went on a crusade against one entity because such attacks appeal to a base.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Gutting all reproductive health funding
would also bring the same "War on Women" charges that trying to gut Planned Parenthood on its own would.  
Neither would sell with the broad middle.

At least trying to gut Planned Parenthood is supported by the pro-life 30-35% of the public.  I'd guess trying to gut all of it would have even less support.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
I agree
and there are others.

1. Immigrant-bashing.  
2. Hostility toward gays.  For example, the House refusing to pass the Violence against women act because gays/lesbians are included (even after the Senate passed it by a huge margin, including many Republicans).  One can stand up for traditional marriage without taking a Santorum-line on gays.
3.  The whole minimum wage debate.  We're right on the economics, but opposing some increase is toxic from an emotional view for the majority of the country.
4. Replacing the income tax w/ higher sales taxes.  Same as #3.  I suspect that this will be the path back for the Dems in the red states.

At least the latter two have good policy reasons.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
I echo these sentiments
Admittedly, I am far right on the immigration issue, but the Planned Parenthood / hostility towards gays is one of the major reasons I don't vote Republican more often. I don't expect a GOP candidate to endorse gay marriage or other issues, but it would be a lot easier for me if they could say something simple like "I'm not going to advance the cause further, but I won't take away any rights or make life more difficult for anyone gay." Had Romney uttered something to this effect, he would have had my vote.

I understand this is starting to get into policy, so I won't press further...but...some flexibility on these types of issues would bring a lot of people in the middle over to the right. Tone down the rhetoric.

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
I think for the most part
Romney would have largely enacted policy to the effect of what you wanted him to say.  

I will say though, that if the GOP had nominated Santorum (or someone of that sort), I might have voted for Obama.  Santorum and his ilk are that repulsive, IMO.  While I support traditional marriage, but I oppose the hostility toward gays and further I think this should be entirely left to the states.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
Romney
Unfortunately, we'll never know how things would have went. I had hopes that he would end up being a really good moderate President on certain social issues.

That being said, my biggest concerns were that he would have ended the hospital visitation provision, or reinstated don't ask, don't tell. I never expected him to publicly endorse civil unions or anything...just say you won't roll back the clock on anything that would make life more difficult.

Again, I'm getting into policy and don't want to offend moderators.

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
You're going down a different alley
I think everyone agrees that hostility toward anyone is bad for the party and I'm sure event hose deemed hostile to illegal immigrants would say that's not their message.

Immigrant bashing isn't policy and I'm talking about policy positions that shouldn't be pushed, even if they make sense. While it may have been bad for the economy to let taxes go up on the rich and it might be unfair to take more hard earned money from them, the policy position was a bad one to fight for. We came off as the party of the rich. We were fighting for an unpopular policy.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Very true
n/t

34, Libertarian leaning D, living in PA-7
Originally from PA-4 (the old PA-17)


[ Parent ]
Ok then
Two examples of such policies (as I mentioned above) are opposing an increase in the minimum wage and replacing income taxes w/ sales taxes (which is being proposed in several states).  
The latter, I fear, will be gold for Dem candidates in red states (for state offices).

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
You're very wrong about #4.
Yes, it should probably only be attempted in red states, but it isn't a path to disaster. Back in 2001, Democratic majorities in the Tennessee General Assembly, with the backing of Republican Governor Sundquist, tried to impose an income tax and scale-back the sales tax. They were met with heavy protesting (and a touch of vandalism). There was so much opposition that the final bill narrowly failed to pass the state house because some Democrats were too afraid to vote for it. Back then, Tennessee was R+low. It's now solidly red, and Republicans have supermajorities in both chambers, plus the governorship. Heck, I was once able to defeat a bill (with help from another member) in the state house of the youth legislature that would have fictitiously imposed an income tax and reduced the sales tax. This legislative body was well to the left of Tennessee, if not the nation. Anyway, I just don't see it being a big deal in red states.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Taxes
I don't think people like any changes to the tax code other than lowering of rates.  We are seeing this now with the desire to eliminate property taxes in PA.  Many people despise the property tax, but they are skeptical of raising other taxes to eliminate it.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Replacing a sales tax with an income tax is a non-starter I agree...
...because for most people, an income tax is more complicated than a state tax so imposing one is hard to do. See my home of Washington.

OTOH, it is relatively easy to find studies where replacing an income tax with a sales tax will mean a massive tax cut for the well-off and actually increase taxes on poor and working class. Plus, people are used to filing a state income tax and for most people, it's an addition 10 minutes to the hour they're spending on a federal income tax, so it's not a huge positive to be gaining that 10 minutes.

Now, you can agree whether or not it's good policy, but I do believe there is a populist message of, "why are we cutting rich person x's taxes by y amount and then making you pay 6% on your bare necessities when you get barely by?" that goes across party lines in its appeal.  


[ Parent ]
Making it more difficult than it has to be
I think you are actually making this even more difficult than it has to be.  You don't even need to bring up the regressiveness argument as schemes to shift from income to consumption taxes often fail as people suffer from sticker shock.  In addition, there are federal income tax benefits of paying state income tax compared to a higher state sales tax.

I am actually a strong supporter of the state income tax.  We have a flat income tax with very few credits deductions here in Pennsylvania.  This contrasts with the sales tax which is full of exemptions.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
Southern Democrats have already done a dry run on that strategy, and it has fallen flat.
In an attempt to paint Republicans as not in touch with the average Ma and Pa Ruralperson, Democrats in Tennessee and Arkansas (maybe other states, too) went on a crusade about two years ago to lower their states' sales tax rates on groceries. The logic in Arkansas was that it would help a policy goal and appeal to the type of voters that the Dems needed to hold the legislature. In Tennessee, where Republicans were in firm control, the idea was to gain back some poor rural seats by bludgeoning the Republicans over the head for being rich and aloof when they ignored the proposal because Democrats were making it. Both attempts failed. In Arkansas, the cuts passed, but the Dems still lost both houses of the legislature. In Tennessee, Republicans deftly turned the situation on its head by passing a groceries tax cut (and allowing a legislator from a poor area to propose it). They just paid for it by cutting the budget. Republicans gained seats. These aren't exactly what you're talking about, but they're similar situations. By the way, local media, especially newspapers, helped the Dems be heard even in Tennessee where they were in the minority and had no power.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Well
Being the party of Barack Obama is less popular than basically anything else in the rural South.
But the Southern Dem brand won't be tied to Obama forever, and issues like this will start to bite.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
Philadelphia shows the opposite lesson
Nutter and company increased sales tax from 1% to 2%. Meanwhile the wage tax has been cut since Rendell realized that a 5% wage tax was absurd.

Thank god for PA's uniformity clause.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
The thing is
They're not doing that because its popular, they're doing that because its smart.  Its not like the Philly Democratic party has to worry about losing power anytime soon.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
well, right
I take it as a tacit admission that the sales tax is less damaging to the middle class than the wage tax was.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
There is a difference
between opposing introducing an income tax and replacing the current income tax with increasing sales taxes.  

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
What is a state's economic base?
If the state has a lot of tourist & vacation home revenue a sales tax shifts costs to nonresidents. And oil & coal states can impose severance taxes to achieve the same end. Income taxes work best in insular states where such cost shifting isn't viable  

[ Parent ]
I'm not talking policy
It may well be a very fine policy in many cases.  I'm just saying that increasing the sales tax on residents to reduce the income tax will be rather unpopular, and a likely loser at the polls.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
I'd compare it politically
to increasing the minimum wage.  Really questionable economically, at best.  But opposing such increases are politically difficult.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
Florida Florida Florida
Try running there on swapping out the sales tax for an income tax. Tell
me how it goes  

[ Parent ]
simply bury in a house committee


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Kyrzakhstan
Kerry working to secure Democratic Institutions. lol. http://www.nationalreview.com/...

R - MD-7

Ah, Kyrzakhstan
That must be where Manny Ortez is from! http://www.slate.com/articles/...

[ Parent ]
Must be next to
Uzbekibekibekistanstan.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
Aren't they all the same?
Aren't they all former Soviet states that are dirt poor and dominated by third rate versions of Putin?

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Now, of course
if he were a Republican SoS, we wouldn't hear the end of it ...  

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
MI-Sen
Termed-out State Sen. Roger Kahn (R-Saginaw Twp.) considering.

R - MD-7

Could be good
If Levin runs. He's received donations from the SEIU before so he must be somewhat union friendly. He first said he was considering way back in the summer

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
Heck no
He is a big advocate of raising gas taxes and got money from SEIU to preserve their fleecing of home health care workers.  No thanks.

MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton

[ Parent ]
Agreed
The whole SEIU union due skim really should disqualify him from major office.  I also don't see why he would be such an effective candidate anyway.

Republican in deep blue MI-14

[ Parent ]
Campaign Finance
SCOTUS won't hear campaign finance appeal, direct corporate donations to remain banned.

http://m.startribune.com/polit...

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.


WATN
Hayden Rogers, former NC-11 candidate, now Manchin's CoS. http://atr.rollcall.com/manchi...

R - MD-7

AZ-AG; Rotellini running again
http://www.kjzz.org/content/13...

I've also heard that Terry Goddard is interested in his old job. Tom Horne may run for governor, so this seat could be open.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


AZ-AG: I doubt if Goddard runs again
Maybe he'll try for the governor's office again if no strong Dem runs. If Goddard won't run for AG, the frontrunner (according to a survey) is Republican Maricopa County Attorney Bill Montgomery.  

[ Parent ]
How's this good
Cuccinelli looks like he's going to have a lot of trouble this fall.  The only good news for him is Terry McAuliffe is a complete slimebag, and comes off as dishonest.

I'm honestly undecided about this race.  If Bolling enters, I might support him.  I doubt he can win though (because McAuliffe's floor is probably 35-40%)

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
MA-Sen: Lynch, Markey agree to debate six (!) times
http://www.boston.com/metrodes...

Good for Lynch.

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast


MA-Sen 2018; Brady vs. Warren?
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c...

Brady just got a three year extension, which takes him until February 2017 and just in time to announce for a senate run!

He will be 40 by then and likely to retire from the NFL, while still beloved by the People's Republic of Massachusetts!

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Wow
I'm no biblical scholar, but isn't there supposed to be some titanic battle between Good and Evil before the Second Coming?Maybe the world will end after 2018.

[ Parent ]
IL-2
No idea how to respond to this one. http://www.nbcchicago.com/blog...

R - MD-7

100% garbage poll
Has to be. Logic

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Chicago has heavy snow tomorrow
So turnout is gonna be very low

I want Debbie to win it be slap against Bloomberg which I love and plus media would be in frenzy about pro NRA Dem winning.  Plus white Dem winning is added bonus


[ Parent ]
The media and the NRA Dem
There might be a few mentions, especially in news reports, but if Halvorson wins, don't expect it to be mentioned in gun debates for more than a day or two. It doesn't fit the liberal anti-gun narrative, so after an initial discussion as a topical point, only some conservative commentators (who know better but are ruthless) and a few liberals who are trying to be fair will occasionally mention it.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
The little side video of the Jacksons
says "Jackson Pleads Guilty." It's sad that it took me a few seconds to figure out which spouse they were talking about.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
leading with 21%
That's not by 21%, but with 21%.  21-17 doesn't exactly strike me as a strong lead, and if Kelly can get machine backing its easily overcome.

Still, part of me wants to see Halvorson win just for Bloomberg's face when he realizes a "Pro-gun " Democrat is going to represent one of the most Anti-gun districts in the country.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
The big question is the snow
It probably cuts turnout to basically zero.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
Even if Halvorson wins
she'd be primaried in 2014.  Hmm, I wonder if a black Republican could beat Halvorson.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
No way
incumbency is a huge plus in getting machine support. If Halvorson somehow wins she'll "evolve" slightly on guns (i.e. support a watered-down AWB) and be just fine.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
The problem with Halvorson
in this district is not just guns.  It is that she's white.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
Hahn, Cohen, Peters
all are OK. It's not the problem it was even 10 years ago.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
True
but these three all had strong ties to black leaders in their district.  Halvorson doesn't and she's actively hated by a lot of them.

I could be wrong, but I sense that the black machine won't support Halvorson in 2014, but rather would try to unify around a single black primary opponent.  

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
She'll have a full year
to try and get on their good side, and incumbency is a giant help in that regard.

All this is probably moot because it's very doubtful she wins unless turnout is positively abyssmal... though they're calling for 2-5" with Thundersnow right in the middle of the day tomorrow. http://chicago.cbslocal.com/vi...

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
Cohen's the only parallel
Hahn beat arguably one of the most corrupt members of congress in a district that's far more Hispanic than Black in a general election, and Peters won because Hansen Clarke had upset the Detroit Machine enough to actively get rid of him (and will likely be gone in 2 years anyway).

Cohen's survived, but he's the exception rather than the rule.  From what I understand he's always played ball with the Memphis Black Democrats, and has a long history there going back to the state legislature.

Halvorson's never represented the Democratic parts of this district, and her congressional district was largely white and suburban and never reached into Cook county.  I give her 1 in 10 odds tops, and that's only because of the snow.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
I'd say about the same
for tomorrow. But if she wins, she'll be OK in 2014.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
PA-Gov: Tom Knox interested
http://www.philly.com/philly/b...

28, Republican, PA-6

GA-Sen; Deal scaring away donors from Price
http://www.buzzfeed.com/rebecc...

"When Price discussed a bid for Senate with Rep. Austin Scott, a fellow Georgian, Scott put the matter bluntly.

"Tom, everybody in south Georgia hates you because you were going to run against Saxby (in a primary), and everybody in north Georgia hates you because of what you did to the governor," Scott joked, according to an aide with knowledge of the conversation."

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Then Kingston it is
Granted he's pretty much Generic Southern Republican; but he's not a whack & he'll hold the seat  

[ Parent ]
Not if Handel gets in
She would be the favorite against the three congressmen, no doubt.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
I think she beats Broun or Gingrey
But Kingston would be very tough. His path to victory is essentially the same one Deal took in the 2010 runoff.

[ Parent ]
Deal barely won in 2010
And that was when Handel didn't have great name recognition and now she has that and possibly a national following after her stint at Komen. Plus, the Club for Growth will likely go after Kingston and possibly back Handel considering electability issues with Broun.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
The latter is definitely possible
But don't overstate Handel's name rec--PPP had it at only 54%, which was the best in the GOP field but not significantly better than any of the Congressmen.

[ Parent ]
Kentucky: State Senate votes to move elections to 2016
I take it that this bad for Democrats if it passes.
Or at least Republicans think that will be the case. The Dems would get presidential year turnout, but straight party voting balances that out and tilts the odds to the GOP. Did I miss anything?

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Why would
Democrats go along with this?  From a good Government standpoint it makes sense as it will save a lot of money, but doesn't this greatly improve Republican statewide chances in KY?

33/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Yeah
I see no way this passes the House.

I'd have tried to move it to midterms if I were the GOP, rather than presidential years. That seems like a more doable compromise and it would still boost gubernatorial turnout.

Also, I'm not sure it's constitutional to extend the terms of people already in office.

R - MD-7


[ Parent ]
*looks around for a copy of the commonwealth's constitution*
I have no clue if it's against Kentucky's constitution, but I can't think of a reason that the federal constitution would prohibit this proposed law.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Republican form of Government
I can't think of a single instance in which terms have been extended mid-stream. I'm no constitutional scholar, but I'd think an argument could be made that it would violate that clause for members of Government to permit other members of Government to stay in office beyond the expiration of the term to which they were elected.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
So, say
if they wanted to make 2015's election for a 5-year term there would be no problem with that. It's the extension of the existing term that seems to start down that slippery slope.

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
It's not like this is unprecedented
In 1975, the Texas Constitution changed the terms of statewide officeholders from two years to four. The existing terms to which the officeholders were elected to in 1974 were simply extended to expire on Janurary 16, 1979, instead of January 18, 1977.

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
California
Standard in California when a local government goes from and odd year election to an even year election

[ Parent ]
Hard 2- and 4-year constitutional caps
So you'd either have to amend the constitution, or you'd have to dissolve the legislative session, get everyone to resign, and start from scratch in 2016.

[ Parent ]
It's a KY constitutional ammendment anyway
but I think it might even be against the Federal constitution too (see above).

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
I think they'd have to plan it well
It may already be too late to do it for 2016. It would have to be worded somewhat like this:

"The general elections of 2015 are to be held outside the parameters of (clause of the Constitution that sets term length). Members elected in those elections will serve terms of one year. General elections in 2016 will be held in accordance with (term length clause) and will be held every even-numbered year thereafter."

Obviously it will be clunky but they'll pay constitutional lawyers big money to find some way to get it through.


[ Parent ]
They don't
(See above).

Lifelong Republican, TX-17

[ Parent ]
Couldn't they cut it short instead of extending it?
I.e. pass they law immediately after an election in order to make the current term artificially short instead of long?  Or is that against the rules too?

23, Libertarian Republican CA-18
Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Not sure
but I think that would be OK, as you're adding more public input, not taking it away. I couldn't cite you a historical example of it though - almost always when these changes are made they affect the next term up for election (i.e. NJ's 1947 constitution lengthened the gubernatorial term from 3 to 4 years, but the first 4-year term took effect in 1949, when the 3-year term from 1946 expired.)

R - MD-7

[ Parent ]
2016 (Pres): Biden gets first endorsement
DE Gov. Markell endorses Joe Biden.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycr...

33, R, IN-09


MA-Sen: Winslow has garnered 5K more sigs than Markey
https://twitter.com/BradMarsto...

24, MA-07, Rockefeller Republican. Visit me at http://twitter.com/polibeast

Winslow is hugely underrated
A pity he has to dispatch these clowns first. And post-revelations about asking Patrick for the appointment, that's what Gomez increasingly looks like.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Sullivan is no clown
But he's also not going to be on the ballot, so it's a moot point. I expect Winslow to survive Gomez.

[ Parent ]
Scott Brown had to win a GOP primary in 2009
Beating Jackie Robinson 89-11 didnt hurt him any. Primary can be good for the GOP. Its a chance to see if either Winslow or Gomez to raise their name rec and to see if either could emerge as a superstar. It worked for Scott Brown so why not these guys.

[ Parent ]
Jack Robinson was a perennial loser
nobody took him seriously.  Of course, no one took Scott Brown seriously either until 2010.


Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
Florida Congressional Races in 2014
http://www.sunshinestatenews.c...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Murkowski's pick? No thank you!


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
'Battleground Texas' effort ramps up
http://www.politico.com/story/...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

If they're serious,
they'll establish satellite offices in McAllen, Irving, and downtown Houston. Even then, they'll probably continue to deliver Lol Value for years to come.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
This is about fleecing donors
The idea of turning Texas blue really appeals to big Democratic donors who don't know any better, and its the sort of thing you can easily produce metrics for showing progress without the need to actually, you know, win elections. 2014 can be blamed on a midterm year, and it would be hard to do worse than 2012. So they can easily raise 10-15 million, and no one is likely to call them on it.

Texas also has quite a few rich Democratic donors who can be activated this way.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
+1
Couldn't agree more.
Some people are looking for easy employment paying a million plus a year and dole out contracts to friends and family.  

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Emily's List endorses Buono for New Jersey Gov.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

I'm sure it was touch and go whether they'd go Christie or Buono.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


AR-01: State Rep Marshall Wright may run
MN-Sen/Gov; Five potential female candidates for the GOP
http://www.realcapitolview.com...

I think I would prefer Brod for the senate, Rosen for MN-1, and Hoffman against Peterson. I don't know about the other two, but I would like to see Norm Coleman run for governor.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Rosen for Sen
She can self-fund which is more useful in the Senate race than House race. Plus, she probably has more popularity and name-rec in the Twin Cities due to her leadership on the Vikings stadium bill

Male, LA-01

Cassidy, Rounds, Ernst, Handel, Land for Senate!  


[ Parent ]
I don't have a problem with that
I would just like to see Waltz get a serious challenge.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
CA-SD16; Potential candidates
http://www.fresnobee.com/2013/...

I'm pulling for Pedro Rios. He seems like he may have potential.

Also, is it just me or is the analysis of the new district wrong. I have the new 16th as a 36% Obama district (2008) and a 32% Brown district.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Confusion
The district that selects Rubio's replacement will be Senate District 16 as it was between 2002 and 2012.

Here's the confusing thing. There are two sets of districts right now.

1. 2002 even numbered districts.
2. 2012 odd numbered districts.

2012 even numbered don't exist yet.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
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