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Elections have consequences, from the race for President to the race for one seat on a city council. Those elections are the products of fascinating interactions between campaigns, party affiliations, voter turnout, and the media spotlight. Red Racing Horses analyzes and discusses elections from a Republican-leaning perspective. Thank you for visiting, and we hope you'll enjoy the blog.

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Political Roundup for February 28, 2013

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 07:28:27 AM EST


Congress

PA-13/PA-GOV/DCCC: Congresswoman Allyston Schwartz has resigned as DCCC Finance Chair as it appears she really is running for Governor.

DCCC: Congressman Jim Himes will replace Congresswoman Schwartz as DCCC Finance Chair.

PA-13: As it appears Congresswoman Allyston Schwartz will be running for Governor, Politics PA provides us with an extensive list of potential Democratic candidates for this D+12 blob located in Montgomery and Philadelphia counties.  If I had to guess, I expect this to break down into a Montco vs. Philly fight with Mike Stack being an early favorite.

VRA: The Supreme Court heard arguments on Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act on Wednesday and oral argument did not go well for upholding the Act.  The Chief Justice specifically asked if the Justice Department thought southerners were racist.  Considering what happened with Obamacare last year, who knows how the Court will rule.

AR-Sen: The Club for Growth is now running ads against Arkansas Democratic Senator Mark Pryor.  The Club for Growth apparently is making this race one of their biggest targets in 2014.  Lets just hope they don't screw up the primary.

KY-Sen/POTUS: Here is a great piece on the rebranding of Senator Rand Paul within the Republican foreign policy spectrum.  Paul is no longer pushing himself as a non-interventionist, but appears to be pushing himself to be more of a realist.  I think he has a serious opening here and has quite impressed me over the last two years with his ability to mold libertarian ideas into a more tolerable format for many Republicans like myself.

Senate 2014: In case you did not know, the Democratic Senate class of 2008 is facing some interesting challenges when it comes to reelection.  Many of the Democrats are in conservative states where they benefited from the 2008 wave.

States/Others
Guns: Several Democratic governors are fretting over the lack of movement on Capitol Hill over guns.  There is a fear that the only measure that has any chance of passing, an expansion of background checks, might be the end of the gun debate and might not even be passed itself.  They simply don't understand how this issue is not a priority and/or toxic elsewhere.

AFL-CIO: The largest union organization in America is entering into a period of self-evaluation.  Supposedly the AFL-CIO is going to spend six months trying to figure out what it is doing wrong and how to fix it as the organization is currently in survival mode.

NJ-Gov: Former Presidential candidate Mitt Romney donated the maximum permitted by New Jersey law to early backer and supporter, Governor Chris Christie.  Romney gave Christie $3,800.00.

NJ-Gov/CPAC: Governor Christie is taking the lack of an invitation to CPAC well.  As Christie points out, he seems to have a lot of offers to speak these days.

Ryan_in_SEPA :: Political Roundup for February 28, 2013
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Kasich is very popular, leads all comers
Apparently the voters in Ohio are happy with things
Port man is at +20 and Brown is at +18.  

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
I really don't know
What did Kasich do to turn things around so much. Going from being hated to being loved.
One thing definitely helped Kasich. He gracefully took the hit after the overturning of the union law and continued on.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
It's not a PPP poll
He was doing poorly in their poll. Different pollsters different results.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
Q had same numbers


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
The energy
industry in Ohio is doing very well.  

Republican Medical Doc from New York, NY

[ Parent ]
I said earlier that Kasich is safe
Glad to see it.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Not sure this means much of anything
80% of the state doesn't know who Fitzgerald is, 62% doesn't know who Cordray is. Plenty of time for Kasich to destroy their images or for their images to improve.  

[ Parent ]
Glad to see it
Any chance he takes a stab at POTUS?

21, MN-05

[ Parent ]
or Senate vs Brown in '18?


[ Parent ]
The only cure for POTUS ambitions is embalment
I'm sure Kasich is interested in running again. He's a great tactician, but I'm not sure he's the best messenger. He'd be the perfect chief of staff.

[ Parent ]
He'd have a good niche in the primary
He would fit the role of reformist governor that could appeal to conservatives that find Christie too liberal, don't like Rubio on immigration, and don't like Paul on foreign policy. Walker or Jindal could fill this role, too, but Kasich is by far the most engaging speaker of the three.  And we know he has the ambition.

21, MN-05

[ Parent ]
Walker
If he was serious about running for Prez someday, he should take those few courses he needs to get his Undergrad.  It would be win-win...it would remove a negative, and be seen as a model/inspiration for other adults who left school.  The fact that I've heard nothing of a desire to return leads me to believe he won't run for President.

[ Parent ]
I don't see why that is relevant
Walker's a proven campaigner and a proven executive.  Once you achieve a certain level of experience, I think educational background goes out the window.  The only people that would care about this aren't voting GOP anyway.  Walker's bigger problem is that he isn't the most exciting man around - and communication is half the job of being President.

21, MN-05

[ Parent ]
i agree that it shouldn't be relevant
But it would be.

[ Parent ]
show me a sitting governor
and I'll show you someone who thinks he can be president.

Chief of Staff though is seen as a demotion from Governor so I can't see Kasich giving up the governorship for that.

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
New corruption charges against Berlusconi
http://www.reuters.com/article...

Another day... another allegation of Italian political corruption.

28, Republican, PA-6


Diminishing Returns
When everyone is guilty. Seeing the same thing with the Eastleigh byelection.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Competitive Florida Field Shrinks in '14
http://www.rollcall.com/news/c...

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

Could this be the year (cycle) of the Republican women?
There are currently 4 GOP women in the senate, but if certain recruits get in and certain retirements, it may at least double:

Democratic held seats (my current projections based on the female candidates being the nominee):

Leans GOP: WV- Shelley Moore Capito
Tossup: IA- Kim Reynolds
Tossup/Tilt Democratic: NC- Cherrie Berry or Renee Ellmers

Leans Democratic: CO- Jane Norton
Likely Democratic: MN- Julie Rosen
Likely Demcoratic: NJ- Kim Guadagno

If Levin retires...Tossup: MI- Candice Miller or Terri Lynn Land

GOP held seats:

Likely GOP: GA- Karen Handel

If Roberts, Inhofe, and Enzi retire...

Safe GOP: KS- Jenkins
Safe GOP: OK- Fallin
Safe GOP: WY- Lummis or Cheney

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Could this be the year (cycle) of the Republican men?
Leans GOP: WV- Mike Hall
Tossup: IA- Bill Dix
Tossup/Tilt Democratic NC- David L. Curtis

Leans Democratic: CO- Bill Cadman
Likely Democratic: MN- Bill Ingebrigtsen
Likely Democratic: NJ- Kevin J. O'Toole

If Levin retires...Tossup: MI- Patrick Colbeck or Tory Rocca

GOP held seats:

Likely GOP: GA- Greg Goggans

If Roberts, Inhofe and Enzi retire...

Safe GOP: KS- Roger Reitz
Safe GOP: OK- Rob Standridge
Safe GOP: WY- Charles Scott

25, Male, R, NY-10


[ Parent ]
Every favorable cycle in history for Republicans have always been good for GOP men


29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
MN-Sen
Where in the world did you come up with Ingebrigtsen?

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
;-)


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
The names are super random
I didn't recognize any of them.

[ Parent ]
:-)


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Hahahahahahah
I think that was the point. Thanks, Moshe, for a good laugh on my way to class. :p

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


[ Parent ]
Agree
This would be the year of some dude.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
I recognized
Roger Reitz and Mike Hall. I think they're all or almost all state legislators.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
Also
Reitz is a total squish... no thanks on him.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
Reitz
Reitz was booted in the primary last year and his seat flipped.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
All are state senators


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
That would be soo awesome
We desperately need more Republican women in congress.

Male, PA-15, Libertarian leaning-Republican

[ Parent ]
IA-Sen; Reynolds confirms interest will talk with King
@JessicaTaylor: RT @TimAlbrechtIA: Lt. Gov. @KimReynoldsIA confirms on media call she will take a "serious look" at US Senate. Will speak with King. #iagov

It would be great if King steps aside and then Reynolds announces with Branstad, Grassley, Latham, King, and others by her side. Perhaps Northey too, as Branstad could promise him this will be his last term and will fully back him in 2018 for governor.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Northey for Lt. Gov?
If Reynolds runs for Senate, should Northey be the Lt. Governor nominee?  It is likely a less powerful position than Ag Secretary in Iowa, but it might make a better position for a run for Governor in 2018.

33, R, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Doubtful
If he's Lt. Governor and Branstad becomes unpopular by 2018, it may hurt him. Holding still as Agriculture Secretary, will likely give him the best shot.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
What about Christian Fong?
Lt Gov, Senate or IA-1? He'd be a good canidate for any of those 3.

[ Parent ]
I've wanted Fong to run against Braley in IA-1 for three cycles now
I think he would probably be our best bet. If he wins, he would have a great launching pad to run for the senate if Grassley retires.

I would prefer Branstad to pick some other up and comer pol for LG, to keep building the bench.  

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


[ Parent ]
Debi Durham could be a good choice
She was the LG nominee in 2002 and Branstad just appointed her to be the director of the Iowa Economic Development Authority.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Tim Scott goes on BET for outreach
http://www.bet.com/video/news/...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

This is good


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Chafee Very Unpopular
Chafee approval according  Brown University poll  is 26%. Providence Mayor Angel Taveras (D), a likely candidate for governor next year, is the most popular politician in Rhode Island with a job approval rating of 64%. Another potential candidate, Treasurer Gina Raimondo (D), scored a 56% approval rating.


just got real for Schwartz
I still don't get the move.

27, R, PA-07.

Emily's list will probably be screaming for a woman here
The PA Congressional delegation will be all male.

Of course that theory went nowhere for Nia Gill.

27, R, PA-07.


[ Parent ]
Pa Dems
They simply don't have many females on their bench anywhere.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
Toomey 2016
Larry Sabato ‏@LarrySabato
yup, & Johnson (R-WI) RT @shundle: @LarrySabato Top 2016 targets for Dems will probably be Kirk (IL) and Toomey (PA)

I don't think you can put Toomey in that category. I'm not sure he's more vulnerable than other swing state Republicans. Democrats don't have a strong history of winning statewide in Pennsylvania unless their names are Casey or Rendell. Arlen Specter and Rick Santorum won re-election in 1992, 2000, and 2004 despite the Democrat winning the state on a Presidential level.

I know Democrats had a good year statewide in 2012, but none of the Republican candidates were incumbents.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
History is imperfect
You had long-time incumbents like Heinz and Specter for much of that time, the only real exception being Santorum 2000.

Also voting is polarizing everywhere, hence why I tend to think Kirk is actually the most vulnerable of those Senator's, since so much of Illinois' Presidential year turnout is going to be made up of straight-ticket Democrats.

Toomey is probably the Safest of the three, but he may still have a problem if a Democrat is winning the state by 6-7 for President.  

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Heller just won under the same scenario
Nevada went 52-46 Obama.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Barely
By one point, with a none-of-the-above option, and against a deeply flawed candidate suffering from accusations of corruption who had largely been written off.

In fact, I would argue that Heller's weak 2012 performance is pretty close to the exception that proves the rule. Even a strong candidate with everything going for them can get dragged down in that kind of state in a Presidential year.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Toomey
He probably needs to perform roughly where House Republican incumbents did in 2012. That should be sufficient.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
Portman
He's also from a state that went for Obama twice but I think think the conventional wisdom is that if he runs for reelection (he probably will), he won't be seriously challenged. I know Ohio is less Democratic leaning than Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin but Portman also seems to be a better candidate than the Republican Senate incumbents (excluding Rubio) in Obama states that are up for reelection in 2016. Is Portman likely to get a serious challenge and why is he less vulnerable than other such incumbents? Does he have national ambitions?

[ Parent ]
Portman
I think he's too boring to be President.  He'd still be a good VP pick in 2016 though, but he might have to give up his seat.  Maybe not though.

He's more popular than the other GOP swing state senators from the 2010 class.  He's less abrasive than Johnson, less conservative than Toomey, and in a redder state than Kirk.  I don't know Ayotte's approvals, or Rubio's for that matter.

I'd rate Portman's race Lean R.  He could lose against a strong Democrat if Obama is popular and the Democrat wins by a decent margin for President.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
IA-Sen; Pretty obvious, but Reynolds won't challenge King, so they will talk after her trip
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

I Can't Imagine
King not running if he has ANY hopes of being in the Senate.  An Obama midterm vs. a Presidential year in a state thats gone blue in what 5 out of the last 6 Presidential Elections (I know some were very close) when Grasserly likely retires.  If he passes I think he has no Senate ambitions and is happy in the House.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
I agree
My feeling has always been that he won't go for it. In the House, he has a seat to speak from. If he runs for the senate and loses, he's done and will likely be branded as an Akin, Angle, etc...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

[ Parent ]
Exactly! This is a bird in the hand vs 2 in the bush scenario
IA isnt GA. King risks a lot by running for Senate. There is no guarantee that if he is the GOP nominee that he can win the general. If he's not ready to hang it up and call it a career if he loses than he should run for re-election to the House. That's the gamble he would be making.  

[ Parent ]
Iowa's Presidential primary is also there
As long as you're a big political player in Iowa, you have influence that a standard House member lacks from another state.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
It's not about ambition, it's about electability
Who knows, maybe King will become rational and realistic. He might take a look at the polls and all of the stupid things he has said over the years and realize it's best to stay in his Republican-leaning seat. Maybe he will take a look in the mirror and be realistic. It's not about ambition.

Male, PA-15, Libertarian leaning-Republican

[ Parent ]
Ouch
The revision was expected to be .5% not .1%.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
IL-2: GOP finds their own Alvin Greene
In a special election for a D+27 district and many GOP voters crossing over to the Dem primary, the GOP nominee ends up nominating a convicted felony.  But hey, this is Chicago...

http://www.chicagotribune.com/...

33, R, IN-09


He can continue the district's legacy


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
isn't being a crook a positive in Chicago?


42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.

[ Parent ]
Fits in with Chicago
The land of Jesse Jackson, Mel Reynolds, Rod Blagojevich, Otto Kerner, Pat Marcy, Fred Roti, Al Capone, Sam Giancana, Daniel Walker, Daley family, and Rostenkowski.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Don't forget the awesome Gus


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
The really horrible part about this
is the IL GOP had 2 really legit candidates running here. Both Eric Wallace and Lenny McAllister are serious people who could have used the name rec of this speical to build a bit of a reputation in IL politics for either a statewide run or some other career. Instead the few Republicans in the district who did bother to vote split the "sane" and allowed this guy to win a congressional nomination with UNDER 1,000 votes!

[ Parent ]
Amusing article
"I was the only one in this party making the effort to rattle the saber against the machine." - Paul McKinley

Way to go. You brought down the vaunted GOP establishment of Chicago's South Side.

"If he ends up winning, it's just going to be an embarrassment for the Republican Party." - Eric Wallace

Well, that's one thing the Republican Party probably doesn't need to worry too much about..

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
CA-21; Hernandez raising money, running again? Lol
http://atr.rollcall.com/califo...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Peter King is awesome!
the media salavates
Over our very open feuds. This does not good. The country has become so divided by region; its almost as if we are different people.

[ Parent ]
You live in NY
You probably understand King pretty well.
Proof that the pushback helps is that hypocrite-in-chief Palazzo switched his vote the second time on Sandy relief.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
being fiscally responsible is correct.
That bill was full of pork. I would voted against it. Peter king a blowhard  

[ Parent ]
Ask Scott Garrett
He voted against Katrina aid, but for Sandy aid.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Cool it
The name calling is not productive and this isn't particularly electorally related.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
Apologies


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
King
While I sympathize with some of what King says, I really don't think this is constructive either.  Yes voting against the Sandy bill is difficult to justify when your area needs aid and you support it for other areas, i.e. much of the South who repeatedly gets hit by hurricanes, and they don't play the game with you.

The problem with King's argument is that he ignores its the Democrats fault the bill was loaded with pork.  If the Democrats are so heartless they cannot pass a pork laden bill, they need to be attacked for it.  

But a counter to this is the Bush era love affair with deficit spending for emergencies, i.e. the wars.  There never was a push to make offsetting cuts then, which is what should have happened along with tax increases to fund the wars, so it comes off as anti-regional.

28, Republican, PA-6


[ Parent ]
The article is wrong on one count
They call Nan Hayworth a Tea Partier.  She's very establishment.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Also caught my eye
But it's par for the course in the MSM.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Lazy journalism
They assume all 2010 GOPers are Tea Partiers.  Only about half are.  Easy to open DW-Nominate; it won't tell you everything but just that extra 30 seconds could've told you that Hayworth isn't Tea Party.  Of all 2010ers, only Meehan, Dold, Gibson, Hanna, Runyan, Grimm, McKinley, Barletta, Rivera, Stivers, and Kinzinger were more moderate.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Never let truth get in the way of bashing the GOP
nt

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker

[ Parent ]
It's not even bashing
It's just sheer laziness.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Vicksburg, MS
Mayor Paul Winfield (D) arrested for bribery and is under investigation for sexual harassment, but vows to continue campaign. http://www.clarionledger.com/a...

R, WV-1

He'll win reelection.
Don't you see? It's a plot by the evil white man. /endsnark

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Carl Levin 'pondering' re-election
http://www.politico.com/story/...

Retirement in 5, 4, 3..

Hopefully this will distract their top tier candidates away from Snyder.

27, R, PA-07.


Seems like it


25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
and Tim Johnson is mentioned
As a possible retirement.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
With almost anybody else I'd say definitely
but Levin can stroll to re-election and he has some history of taking his time booting up a campaign, so I'm not writing him out just yet.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
What top-tier candidates?


MI-6: Fed up with Fred Upton

[ Parent ]
Conyers
NT

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
He's 80 years old
Peters is the guy to really watch. I think Schauer, Whitmer, Cherry, and (ugh) Jocelyn Benson are ones to watch as well.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
I think he runs again
I hope I'm wrong.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  

[ Parent ]
Justin Amash for U.S. Senate 2014!
His independence/libertarianism will make him electable statewide.

Male, PA-15, Libertarian leaning-Republican

[ Parent ]
Yeah, sure
Because he won by 9 in a R+6 district.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
That's middling
His margin was 10th largest of the 17 Republicans who won R+6 districts.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2

[ Parent ]
He also had a tougher opponent that most in R+6 districts
did.  On the other hand, it's ancestrally R.  I think he did about average.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Heavily establishment
This is a heavily establishment Republican district though.  Amash simply is not there type.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure about that
He'll have some extremely stiff resistance in Oakland County. If the NRA and RTL are still mad at him, he'll struggle in the East Michigan base areas even more.

He may do well in the thumb, Suburban Genesee County, downriver, and up North, but I think an establishment social conservative would beat him.  

MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
Detroit bankruptcy is here!
This is a golden opportunity for Rick Snyder, Michigan Republicans, and national conservatives in general to showcase utter failure of modern Democratic Party and many of its tenants, big labor, corrupt city governments, and yes racial spoil system.  Cities like Pittsburg went through same (if not more) economic turmoil as Detroit, yet today don't find themselves bankrupt but rather some of the most livable cities.  There was combination of all bads things in modern democratic party, think UAW, Wayne County D machine, Coleman Young, Kawame K that brought Detroit to its knees.  We absolutely should not shy away from talking about it.  


41, R, CA-10

There are racial undertones why it doesn't hurt Ds nationally
Minorities don't blame Ds on anything (they're die-hard Ds)and many (most) white Ds and indies don't think of Detroit as Ds, but as minorities which they don't identify as much as they love their votes.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is under an Act 47 recovery plan being administered by the state and is still hemmoraging population.  The city has terrible municipal services when compared to even Philadelphia as it does not have a tax base.  That said, Pittsburgh is a lot easier of a city to manage compared to Detroit because Pittsburgh is the right size for its population and still has a strong commercial sector.

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
IA-Sen; Radio host Steve Deace considering a run if King doesn't
http://politics.blogs.foxnews....

He doesn't think Reynolds can unite the party.

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3


Pittsburgh Mayor not running for reelection
State Party Chair Jim Burn (D) says Mayor Luke Ravenstahl will not run for reelection in 2013. Formal announcement coming soon.

http://www.wpxi.com/news/news/...

34, Libertarian leaning D.
Born & raised in PA-17/today's PA-4.
Now living in PA-7.


Wow Really?
He's only like 33, I wonder what he does next?

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Maxine Waters: 'Over 170 Million Jobs Could Be Lost'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?f...

This is funny. There are 143 million people currently working, so not only is everyone going to lose their job, but I guess she's counting other countries as well.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Maybe too much policy
but forgive me, I haven't followed the news closely for the past few weeks (medical state examination, here I come - yuck): Why on earth didn't Congress just agree on a "No Sequestration Act" passing through both chambers?

It was their idea (well, the WH's, but yeah ...), so they have the power to say "Yeah, we're not doing the stupid stuff we signed on to". Why didn't they?

German citizen - Conservative by heart, non native english speaker


[ Parent ]
They want the House back.
Obama is popular right now, so they can just pick fights call the GOP obstructionist, even when Republicans try to negotiate. If the GOP completely caves, the Dems get what they want. If they try to compromise, Obama and Co. can just bash some more, and if something bad happens, it's Republicans' fault.

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Republicans did pass two such bills in the last congress
Harry Reid ignored them. Apparently, Barack Obama expected that going around the country expressing gloom and doom would result in the Republicans caving the way they did over taxes. This outcome is surprising to them.

Obama knows that to cement his legacy he needs a Democratic House for the last two years of his Presidency. So he's willing to do anything during these two years that'll make that happen. Working with Republicans isn't going to produce that result.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Except that there is a zero
chance that the Dems win back the House in 2014 w/o a split in the GOP (that is the Tea Party or other far right group actually running third party candidates against Repubs they find insufficiently far right).  So basically there is a zero percent chance of this happening.

Obama isn't stupid politically, and I suppose he knows that there is zero chance of gaining back the House.  (And even if they did somehow, it would be close enough that there would be enough conservaDems who wouldn't let a lame duck Obama have a free hand)  Rather I think Obama thinks that the GOP is weak and will cave if enough pressure is put, and he's putting the pressure.

And he doesn't need a Dem House for a legacy.  Implementing Obamacare, severely cutting defense, and massive regulations to destroy carbon energy sources like coal is quite a legacy on its own.  As is running up the debt.  If the whole thing doesn't come crashing down in the next four years, the next President will have a real mess on their hands.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
Zero?
Disagree.  There is probably about a 10-15% chance.  Zero is completely unrealistic imo.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
Zero
Show me your scenario for the Dems gaining the House in 2014 that adds up to 10-15%.

It isn't actually zero (more like 0.1%), but that scenario requires some 30-40+ credible third party far right candidates in somewhat competitive districts.  You tell me what the chances of that are.

Don't get me wrong, there is a chance that the Dems pick up seats in the House.  But the chances of them picking up more than 10 is negligible, let alone 17.  

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
I'd say 5%
Based on the chance of Republicans becoming far more unpopular than they are now through either a prolonged government shutdown or an impeachment.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Ok
Suppose the GOP House impeaches Obama for something (say Benghazi), and say that the majority of the public (say 60%) oppose the impeachment.  The Senate probably would just dismiss the case.  

Even then, there simply aren't enough competitive GOP seats for the Dems to pick up 17.  The least conservative districts would probably have some Congresspeople who voted against said impeachment.  So even if the Dems gain, they'd only gain a few seats.

A prolonged gov't shutdown would hurt Obama and the Dems as well as the GOP, even if it hurts the GOP more.  But it would still be split along partisan lines, and because of the district maps, that favors the GOP's retention of the House.

 

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
You would need a rural rebellion
Against the GOP. There are a lot of pretty rural seats where Obama has under-performed, but where Democrats did very well 2006-2008. Its plausible there is a scenario where a government shutdown, a Republican effort to kill the farm bill, and the elimination of post offices in local communities combines to produce a general rebellion.

But this would require a number of Republicans to commit suicide publicly.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Most of those have been epically gerrymandered though
How many rural seats have Blue Dog histories and are under R+10? I mean Tom Rice, Mark Meadows, Andy Barr, Steve Southerland, Rodney Davis, Larry Bucshon, Bill Johnson, Jaime Herrera...I don't think you can even get to 10 though, and even getting all those Reps. to lose is a tough order even if rural GOP support craters.  The only viable path to a majority runs through the suburbs, and through knocking off relatively entrenched incumbents.  

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Meadows' seat is something like R+12.


21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
Meadows seems weak to me though
More so than the average freshman.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Weak in an R+12
Isn't the same as Weak in an R+2 or even.  He'd need to have a major scandal or do something really bad to be vulnerable, even in a wave.  This isn't 2006 anymore when the Democrats could poach strongly Republican districts out from under them.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-14

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
What I was doing was listing who would be vulnerable
if GOP rural support cratered.  In that case, I think Meadows would be.  In a normal year, he's Safe R.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Meadows isn't one
But there are several you missed who have a lot of rural constituents, Dan Benishek, Tim Walberg, Jackie Walorski, Tom Reed, Chris Gibson, Scott Tipton, Steve King's seat, the North Dakota and Montana seats, Robert Hurt.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
I also specified ancestrally Dem
Benishek fits, and MT and the Dakotas and Hurt could too.  But you're right.  And I think Gibson/Walberg/Reed are much better shots.  I'm arguing against the "rural Blue Dog districts" strategy.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
MI-07
The dem strength in MI-07 isn't in the rural areas (outside of Chelsea), much of which ranges from a few competitive areas (Waterloo) to blood red.

The dem strength in MI-07 is in NE Eaton County (Suburban Lansing), Jackson and Leoni Twp, Adrian, Monroe and neighboring township, and the portion of Scio Twp (Dexter/Ann Arbor)


MI-08 - Chairman - Livingston County Republican Party Since 2013 - Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP.  


[ Parent ]
This is indeed what you need
You might actually get one.  It's called immigration reform, which could result in many base voters staying home.  That along with a strong Dem turnout in theory could result in a strong Dem year.  

But I still doubt that the Dems can take advantage by nominating strong enough candidates in rural districts.  In 2005, the Dems still had a lot of strong candidates in white rural America, both Midwestern and Southern.  No more.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
So by not voting for impeachment they'd be safe
Just like Democrats who didn't vote for Obamacare were safe in 2010?  I don't buy it.  When there's a wave, the party's brand suffers.  I think in order for the impeachment to happen, Boehner would have to be toppled because he's too smart to do something like that.  But a Boehner toppling would embolden the House GOP's conservative wing.

The district maps still favor retention, but I think 5% is reasonable.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
I suppose
That given that Obama gets impeached for something bogus, there is a 5% chance of the GOP losing the House is reasonable.  But the chances of the GOP actually impeaching Obama are really quite small too, maybe 5%.  So your total probability is 0.25%.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
Not voting for Obamacare
Might not have saved some Democrats, but Voting for it definitely did alot of them in.  How many yes votes survived 2010 in R+ Districts?  I can't think of any off the top of my head.

23, Libertarian Republican CA-14

Liberals dream things that never were and ask why not.  Conservatives shout back "Because it won't work"


[ Parent ]
Gabby Giffords?


Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
I think 5-10% is totally reasonable.
Under the theory that yeah, I totally can see a 1 in 20 shot that the GOP goes completely off the rails in the next 21 months or something happens outside of either parties political control that totally shift things toward Obama (another major shooting by an actual "gun nut", a prominent conservatives something silly about abortion, etc.) in the fall of 2014.


[ Parent ]
They won't get it
Is there any realistic scenario that the GOP loses the House in 2014?  I can see scenarios where the GOP loses seats in the House, but not 17 of them.  Short of a far right third party running credible candidates in the general election (perhaps due to opposition to immigration reform) for a large number of seats, there is no path for the Dems to get a majority in 2014.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
You know that, and I know that,
and doubtless many Democratic strategists know that. But all it takes is a few advisors in Obama's inner circle listening to Pelosi, Reid, and Co.'s entreaties that they've taken conservative seats before for the Democratic leadership to pursue such a strategy. There's also a 'win,win' aspect to this because even if they fail to retake the House, thy could take seats and make policy gains. If you get rewarded for bashing, why not keep bashing?

21, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-08 (home), VA-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
I think Obama knows that
and I think Obama's political advisers know that.  The goal isn't winning back the House (although suggesting rhetorically that it is a possibility helps Dem enthusiasm), but policy gains.  

So I think their thinking is different.  They think Boehner is weak and will cave.  They also think that there are times that Boehner will try so hard not to cave, will overplay his hand, face a backlash, and then eventually cave.  And so far that strategy has worked.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
Boehner
I would not be surprised at all if he is shown the door by his caucus sooner rather than later.

I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat.

[ Parent ]
He will be
if the caucus loses more seats in 2014 (which is a serious possibility unlike the 0% chance they have of losing the House), Boehner will be shown the door.  But I think Cantor really wants to wait until there is a GOP President before he challenges Boehner.  

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
If he doesn't retire first
I'd peg the chances at only about 25% or so that he even seeks re-election. I think he's truly tired of it and just waiting for the right time to take a dignified exit.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
Possible
and if that is truly the case, there may be many more caves by Boehner.  I think the "Hastert rule" is basically dead under this Speaker.  Boehner may see more value to his legacy in getting "something big" done (even if it is 75% in favor of the Dems) than standing up for the views of his caucus.  

OTOH, that's probably good news for immigration reform which passes the Senate, which I believe that we must get off the table.  I doubt that there are more than 40-50 to pass the Senate version (assuming it passes 70-30 and is supported by Rubio) in the House.  The downside of passing immigration reform is lower base turnout in 2014 on our side.  

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
Cantor will wait for the next President
Even if its a Democrat; they can't hate each other as much as him and Obama.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
I agree
unless Boehner decides that he is done in 2015.  Then Cantor may be forced to take the job.

Christie 2016  

[ Parent ]
Correct
There is no point now. He will find himself in the same position Boehner is in.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Its keeping their voters motivated
Obama has more or less written off the House for this decade, but not just in the sense that he has written it off in terms of winning it; he has also written off working with it.

Obama and Democrats have figured out too late the magnitude of what happened in 2010 too late, and the dominant narrative in almost all Democratic political discourse since November has been focused on redistricting. The party, with Obama's degree of complicity remaining unclear, has pretty much decided on a war of attrition in which it works to regain governorships in 2014 and 2018, and hold onto the Senate long-enough to take control of the Supreme Court. Worst case scenario, they are better placed to get better maps in 2022. Best case scenario - with one or two more Justices they can nuke some of the maps judicially. While there is a lot of focus on the Texas interim decision from last year, I recommend reading Breyer's dissent in the 2006 Perry case. The court is far closer to coming out with a standard against denying "partisan electoral majorities" the representatives of their choice than is readily apparent, something that would not just effect congressional maps, but basically nuke legislative maps in Michigan and Wisconsin at a minimum.

Given Obama's political position and his belief and that of partisan democrats that his opposition is both irrational and evil with nothing to contribute in a policy sense, the attrition argument seems to make the most sense.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Oh I agree
the purpose is keeping the base enthused and trying to win policy victories.

And I don't think a Dem House is impossible this decade, in fact if the GOP wins in 2016, I'd put the chances of the Dems taking the House in 2018 at least at 40%.  

On redistricting, I agree with you on the Supreme Court.  If there is one more liberal justice (and yes "moderates" that are likely to be confirmed like Merrick Garland and Leah Sears Ward count as liberals) on the court, partisan gerrymandering may well be struck down, and many of the current maps (Texas, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina will likely be the candidates) may be nuked.

Here's what I wrote a few weeks ago:

I see three ways for the Dems to win back the House this decade, in order of likelihood.
1. R wins Presidency in 2016, followed by backlash and wave election in 2018. (15% chance).

2. D nominate Hillary Clinton, R nominates some far-right extremist (i.e. Santorum).  Result is wave election in 2016, resulting in a D takeover of the House. (5% chance).

3. A conservative justice retires/dies in the next two years, and is replaced with a liberal.  Supreme Court rules that gerrymandering is unconstitutional (violating one-man one-vote) and orders court redraws of several states.  Result is a bunch of new maps, and a D leaning year in 2016 or 2018 would flip the House (<1%).



Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
Supreme Court Openings
I wonder if Ginsburg and/or Breyer stand down during the next 2 years.  I think we know for sure Kennedy won't.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
I don't think any
of the conservatives or Kennedy will do so on their own.  But when you are 75, sometimes that isn't entirely your own choice.  (Heck even if you are under 60, that may be the case.  Look at Judge Karen Williams of the 4th Circuit, who was among GWB's finalists to be a Justice.  She retired from the bench in 2009 due to early onset Alzheimer's at the age of 58).

I could see Ginsberg going this year.  I don't see Breyer doing so.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
Breyer wants to be the liberal Kennedy
In other words, just as Kennedy has served to moderate a conservative majority, Breyer appears to have always aspired to be the moderating force on a liberal majority. He is probably too old to get that after what happened in 2004, but I am not certain he has given up on it yet.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
I doubt he would
Unlike Kennedy, who I think has really has some center-left views on several issues, I think Breyer is a down-the-line liberal in his heart.  Breyer has only moderated to try to water down conservative opinions by winning over O'Connor and now Kennedy.

A Breyer who has a liberal majority wouldn't moderate much at all, unless the liberal position is so unpopular that it could cause a backlash.  For example, if for some reason, Kennedy wants one of his last legacies to be finding a fundamental right to same-sex marriage, I suspect that Breyer and possibly others would refuse to go there because of the possible political backlash.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
Not sure I follow
You think that if Kennedy is going to vote to basically legislate Same Sex Marriage, that Breyer is going to disagree and possibly Ginsburg, Sotomayor or Kagan agree with him and the Conservative justices?  I must be misunderstanding because I am 99.9% sure that would never happen.

32/M/D/NY-01 DKE:Socks The Cat

[ Parent ]
That's what I'm saying
In the circumstance that Justice Kennedy decides to go there (not likely, but not impossible, perhaps seeing his chance to make history), I think the backlash from Roe v Wade is fresh enough in Breyer and Ginsberg's mind that they may not go along.  Perhaps Kagan too.

They won't agree with the conservatives (who would uphold Prop 8), but they may choose to strike it down on narrower grounds.  It may not be much narrower (heck one step narrower would be to invalidate all anti-SSM referendums on the basis that they are based on "animus", but not require recognition of SSM).    

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
Obvious thing to do
Is to gut DOMA without striking it down.

The way this would work is that the Court would rule that the Federal government chose to abdicate its power to issue marriage licences to the states, and by doing so, obligated itself to recognize these marriages. DOMA is therefore unconstitutional in the sense that it treats an identical legal contract(a marriage certificate granted by the Commonwealth of Massachusetts) differently when there is in fact no legal difference between a Massachusetts marriage certificate granted to a man and a woman, and one granted to two men. The court would then rule that the Federal Government has the power to either

A. Not recognize any Massachusetts Marriage Licences for the purpose of federal benefits(and implicitly those from any state with Same-Sex Marriage)

B. Take over from the states and issue its own for the purposes of federal benefits

What the Federal Government cannot do in this scenario is delegate to the Massachusetts state government the right to issue licences for it, and then chose to recognize them or not on the basis of arbitrary criteria that do not exist within Massachusetts law.

Such a ruling would

1. Not make any statement on the morality of homosexuality or same-sex marriage

2. Maintain that the Federal Government, can, if it wishes exercise police powers over the definition of marriage

3. Maintain the ability of the states to also exercise definitional power(to for instance, prohibit polygamy)

4. For all practical purposes legalize Same-Sex marriage nationwide, because the Federal government will not exercise any of the options the court will leave it to avoid to doing so.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
Hollingsworth v. Perry
This is the question granted cert:

Whether the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth  Amendment prohibits the State of California from defining marriage as the union of a man and a woman.

If the answer is yes, then it can be:

1) restricted to California under the 9th Circuit reasoning

2) expanded to invalidate all the SSM bans under the Romer reasoning

3) a proclamation of a general Equal Protection right to same-sex marriage

Everyone knows that anything short of #3 means that the Supreme Court will be hearing a case next year on whether a state that does not permit same-sex marriage is required to recognize a same-sex marriage performed in another state (this will also challenge §2 of DOMA, which is the obvious next step after §3 goes down).

If the answer to that is yes on the basis of Full Faith and Credit, then everyone knows that the Supreme Court will be hearing a case the following year on whether there is an Equal Protection right to same-sex marriage, full-stop.

So, in short, if Kennedy wants to go ahead and proclaim an Equal Protection right to same-sex marriage, there is little reason to think that the liberals on the Court will decide to wait two to three years, because what will certainly not happen is a ruling where the liberals say that there isn't an Equal Protection right to same-sex marriage.

Kennedy may well choose an incremental approach, but I can't imagine the Supreme Court liberals forcing it on him.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
There are six ways
that Prop 8 can be rejected.

1.Rules that the defenders of Prop 8 do not have standing to appeal (which would let the district court ruling stand)

2. Affirm the 9th Circuit based on Romer v Evans (1996), and the "animus" standard.  

3. Rule that once a state has given same-sex couples rights, it cannot be taken away by referendum.    

4. Rule that SSM is fundamentally no different than civil unions, and if the latter is permitted, then it is unconstitutional to not permit the former.

5. Rule that all anti-SSM bans by referenda are due to "animus" and are invalid.  Basically saying that it is not constitutional to amend state constitutions to ban SSM due to "animus" against gays, while not ruling that there is a fundamental right to SSM.  This could have a lot of ripple effects, including blue metro counties in red states permitting SSM.    

6. Rule that there is an equal protection right to same-sex marriage.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
That's right
I basically folded 1-3 into my #1, which is to say a ruling that is restricted to California and doesn't immediately extend to any other state. Here are my thoughts:

1) I seriously doubt the Supreme Court would grant cert just to say that the Prop 8 defenders have no standing to appeal. More importantly, the district court ruling is basically indistinguishable from #6. It is a much broader ruling than the 9th Circuit ruling. If the Supreme Court effectively just lets the district court ruling stand, then we're back to my main point, which is that the issue will be right back at the Supreme Court within 2-4 years.

2) If the Supreme Court wants to restrict its ruling to California, then in my view there's little reason to think it'll choose any other reasoning than the 9th Circuit. The 9th Circuit ruling is written precisely and perfectly with that option in mind.

3) This is barely distinguishable in effect from #2, but it raises a rather convoluted notion that fundamental rights emanate from the state or manifest themselves only pursuant state action. I rather doubt this is a serious option.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
On #3 I agree
People would be more upset if the court just used #3 as the reason for striking prop 8 than #2 since it was a court that allowed it in the first place.
(Their state court read SSM into the state constitution; which prop 8 amended.)

On #1, the 9th circuit already asked the California supreme court for guidance about standing; and it seems in California proponents of a proposition do (at least when the state is unwilling to defend it).

42 Male Republican, Maryland Heights, MO (MO-2). Previously lived in both Memphis and Nashville.


[ Parent ]
Well
there may be some interest for Breyer and some of the other liberals in "not getting too far ahead of the curve" on social issues.  That is, strike down some of the "worst" laws (in this case the anti-SSM referenda), but otherwise let the country continue to move in the direction of the pro-SSM side, if it indeed does so.

If all the SSM bans are struck down, Oregon and Colorado probably pass SSM immediately.  And there could be state Supreme Courts that rule SSM violate state Constitutions (when previously that was not allowed by the anti-SSM amendment).  A more gradual approach may appeal to liberals scarred by the backlash to Roe v Wade (and Ginsberg has spoken many times about how Roe went too far.)  


Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
I don't disagree with that at all
What I don't see is Breyer or Kagan deciding 'not to get too far ahead of the curve' before Kennedy.

Democrat, NC-11

[ Parent ]
It's far from impossible
Ted Olson supported a constitutional right to SSM before Obama.  Kennedy is more in the Ted Olson mode, and I could see him being convinced by his arguments, while Breyer is more cautious and could decide to hold back.

 

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
Obama & SSM
Let's be real. Obama has supported SSM at least since he checked a box to that effect in 1996, and I'm guessing probably since he was an undergrad at Columbia University in the early Eighties. He just didn't think it was politically viable to say so until last year.

Breyer and Kagan have probably supported SSM since they first knew what Stonewall was all about....

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Supporting SSM
is not the same as saying that there is a constitutional right to it.  Breyer (and Ginsberg if her early position on Roe was accurate) seems to be exactly the type of liberal to move cautiously on judicial enactment of social issues.

I have no doubt that Breyer and Ginsberg would vote for SSM if they were in the legislature.  And I don't doubt that they will strike down Prop 8 either.  What I do question is that Breyer (if not Ginsberg) is ready to declare it a constitutional right (independently of whether Kennedy comes to that conclusion).  I actually think the risk of potential political backlash would spook Breyer and Ginsberg more than it would Kennedy.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
CJ Roberts & SSM
I suspect you're looking in entirely the wrong direction. I think that both the DOMA ruling and the Prop 8 ruling will be written with the goal of getting Chief Justice Roberts on board. That basically tells you how I think both rulings will go.

Has everyone forgotten that Roberts did pro bono work for gay rights groups on the Romer v. Evans case in 1996?

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
Roberts will certainly
keep the rulings narrow.  But I agree that he will vote to strike down both DOMA and probably Prop 8.  He's too concerned with his legacy and history, but it may be also what he believes.   If it's up to Roberts, DOMA gets struck down under rational basis, and Prop 8 gets struck down using just the 9th Circuit logic.

What I was saying is that it is not impossible that Justice Kennedy could write a concurrence that borrows heavily from Ted Olson's briefs and arguments, and there will be liberal justices who won't join it.  Justice Kennedy is seen as a center-right moderate, and he often is, but when he is passionate about something he goes whole hog, whether right or left.  See Lawrence v Texas, Citizens United, and Obamacare.

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
Ginsburg
And I wouldn't be surprised if Ginsburg didn't support SSM after she surely read Simone-Lucie-Ernestine-Marie Bertrand de Beauvoir back in the 1950s. lol

If there's a 'latecomer' so to speak it's surely Sotomayor. And of course Kennedy.

Democrat, NC-11


[ Parent ]
On Gerrymandering
I don't think the court will rule it unconstitutional per se. Rather, Breyer seemed to be moving towards a standard where there is a qualitative difference between maps exaggerating existing majorities, in other words taking a state that is 55-44 and crafting a 9-4 map, and drawing maps that make it unlikely a party will win a majority of seats even if they consistently win a majority of the vote. The concerns he expressed in Perry dealt with his fears that it would be possible to draw maps in such a way that a majority of the electorate might be unable to vote a party out of power.

I think even a liberal court would face divisions, and would probably share Kennedy's concern about the need to provide a workable standard to lower courts, and a ruling like this would provide a framework within which maps could be evaluated both by legislators considering their creation and by courts, without requiring courts to draw "fair maps".

The big impact here would almost certainly be in the Rust Belt rather than the south, northeast, or west coast, which would avoid a lot of VRA issues.

27 NH-01/London/MA-07

Centrist Foreign Policy Realist - Tory in the UK, RINO locally


[ Parent ]
They may, they may not
I suspect that the liberals have been in the minority so long, and have seen so many decisions that they see as "unjust", that if they get the majority they may go whole hog on decisions like this.
It is one thing to make a liberal argument to win over a justice like Kennedy (where you have to shorten the leash), it's a completely different thing when you don't have to win someone like Kennedy over.

Some may say that I'm assuming that the liberal justices (in a majority) would inject politics into the court, and I'm saying darn right they would!  

Christie 2016  


[ Parent ]
honestly
These people are arrogant enough to believe their own story. See 2010.

27, R, PA-07.

[ Parent ]
It's the only shot they have
I've written a diary on the Democrats long shot chance of taking the House in 2014. I don't know if the Democrats are bright enough to know that there's no historical precedent for such gains and understand why. Even if they do, what choice does Obama have?

He's decided that a Democratic majority is necessary to achieve his goals and has dismissed the idea of getting something done with a Republican majority. Those are the last two years of his Presidency. It's his only opportunity to have a Democratic majority again. Maybe it's arrogant to think that he can be unique in history but when you only have one bullet in the chamber you fire it.  

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


[ Parent ]
Happens every cycle
In the end he decides that he'll run again.

25, Male, R, NY-10

[ Parent ]
Romney=Christie
What loyalty does Romney owe Christie? Sure Christie endorsed him early and helped him win the nomination. But Romney returned the favor by giving him a prime-time, keynote speech at the RNC. Christie gave a politically-selfish Keynote speech and minimally criticized Obama. And he rarely mentioned Romney by name. A week before the election, Christie was overly supportive of President Obama during Hurricane Sandy and helped him win.

So I don't think Romney owes much loyalty to Christie. What do you guys think?

Male, PA-15, Libertarian leaning-Republican


helped him win?
Do you really think Americans outside of the NY/NJ area were swayed by what Christie said?  Especially when state polling pointed to a 3 point Obama win in the first place?

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
I think it is clear.
This isn't about the political game. Romney likes Christie and believes in what he is doing. Maybe that is why I'm such a big Romney fan, it isn't about what is owed, it is about what he feels is right.

25, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler).

[ Parent ]
IA-Sen; Braley attacking King
http://blogs.desmoinesregister...

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

Hmm
Either he's heard King is already in, or he's goading him in.  Or he's stupid.  I guess that's always a possibility too.  But I don't see why not wait until King declares.

Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Face Palm
http://blog.sfgate.com/nov05el...

I'm for including everyone but Ms. Eyzedooren needs to be stripped of her California Republican delegate status. On top of being full of hate, she's hating for a reason that doesn't apply to Ms. Dhillon.

R, CA-37; hometown: PA-2


Bruce Castor has a new website
Castor
He also converted his FB account to a fan page tonight...

From the old IL-10/new IL-09, living in PA-07
The GOP's roadmap to restored relevance: more Steve Litzows and fewer Steve Kings


[ Parent ]
Good
I think this a sign he is in for Governor.  

28, Republican, PA-6

[ Parent ]
IA-Sen; Branstad urged Reynolds to run and Northey will consider if King doesn't
http://m.ketknbc.com/w/main/st...
@JenniferJJacobs: Iowa ag secretary @BNorthey, a Republican, says he'll "strongly consider" US Senate bid if @SteveKingIA doesn't run. http://t.co/XW5VMvU0Bv

29/Male/Married/Father of One/Republican/CA-3

I actually hope both run
This is a place where a contested primary could be a good thing, pushing up both of their name rec and preventing some flawed outsider from railing against an anointed nominee.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
If both run, King can win with <50%


Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
Both have said
they'd defer to King. I think both running would probably be a kind of insurance against a Steve Deace type.

R, WV-1

[ Parent ]
Hadn't realized they'd said that.


Age 21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (college)
politicohen.com.
Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal but not progressive.  For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.

Berkeley Class of 2015.


[ Parent ]
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